You were going on about how difficult this NFL factor makes it for GM's, and yet, 16 of the first 18 picks are playing for the team that drafted them in year 1. That's 89% with zero wait time. So it seems like GM's have a pretty good handle on it.
Those "head in the sand stats" were not stats at all. They were 18 separate facts supporting an opinion. Which fact do you feel is incorrect?
NFL interest is a consideration, no different that a player's injury history and their score on the bench press. And probably much less meaningful than a player's injury history considering how incredibly few of these players stick in the NFL.
The NFL draft happens 10 days before the CFL draft, so GMs have pretty complete information on the level of interest the NFL has in a particular player. If a player is taken in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft, don't touch him. If he's taken after that, you might want to take a late round flyer on him**. Several will be signed as FA's in the week after the draft. Very few of those will make their teams. These are the only players where there is even the slightest mystery at all.
That is the situation where we lost Mulamba. I doubt he makes the Packers if they don't have a rash of injuries at LB during his audition, not because he's not good enough, just because as an undrafted player he isn't considered as valuable an asset in the NFL. That's just the way it is. But fortune favoured him and enough guys ended up in sick bay that he got a real shot rather than just being fodder, and he made the most of it.
Not very many. Most teams have a pretty good idea on the level of interest. Some choose to use their late round picks to take a flyer on these guys rather than just get another camp body who might play some special teams for three year. It's spending very little on a lottery ticket. We did it with Bilukidi. 4th rounder(?) for him I think. Other guys like this include David Onyemata, Christian Covington and Vaughn Martin. No one used a high draft pick on these guys, because the NFL interest was obvious and predictable.
** Martin was drafted in the 5th round by Montreal after being drafted in the 4th round by San Diego (different years), a pretty good example of the idea mentioned above.
Israel Idonije was drafted in the 2nd round by the Renegades. That would have been a hard one to predict as the scouting was much less than it is today. He just sent tapes out to NFL teams until he finally got a shot.
Orlando Franklin wasn't drafted at all. He was simply an NFL bound player who happened to have NI eligibility because of the ever-changing NI rules. No one used a draft pick at all on him, because the NFL interest was obvious and predictable.
There are examples of players that teams have gotten burned (pun possibilities upcoming) on, but there are usually factors beyond just NFL interest. The BC Lions oddly chose to draft Danny Watkins in the first round even though the Eagles had used their first round pick on him. I guess they figured he wouldn't make it, and in a way it turns out they were right. He quit football entirely and focused on his true love, firefighting.
Absolutely, and yet for whatever reason, the sky falleth for some.