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Rich

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19 hours ago, Atomic said:

So what do you suggest we do about North Korea and all their evil crap?  Nothing?

Basically, yeah. Militarily anyway. They've had 60 years of empty threats. The biggest change recently that's escalated things is the level of aggression being shown by the US against them. I don't have much doubt they they would fire off every nuclear/biological weapon they're able to if the US ever went in there. Seoul would almost certainly be leveled.

I don't think the US would send a ground force, as the US people wouldn't have the stomach for that, and the build up would be too slow. Conventional bombing on its own probably wouldn't work. The only option left is nuclear. Unless the US has solid intelligence that a strike against Japan or S. Korea is imminent, I wouldn't do it.

 

 

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8 hours ago, sweep the leg said:

 The only option left is nuclear. Unless the US has solid intelligence that a strike against Japan or S. Korea is imminent, I wouldn't do it

There's also the case where North Korea is trafficking its nuclear warheads to terrorists. I don't worry about missiles*, I worry about a freighter sailing into Seattle or Vancouver with a nuke in one of its cargo containers.

However, there's tons of forensics that scientists can do on nuclear blasts. The origin of a bomb exploding on North American soil would be known very quickly. If it was a DPRK bomb, North Korea would be annihilated shortly afterwards.  Hell, even if it wasn't a DPRK bomb, we might pave North Korea anyway. Americans are opportunistic warmakers.  So young Kim and his government are very strongly incented to keep their bombs at home.

All that changes if the Kim regime faces an existential threat. If the DPRK government is against the wall and has nothing to lose, they might as well give their bomb tech away.  This is yet another reason why a preemptive attack on the DPRK is a bad idea: it incents them to do the most dangerous thing they can do to us.

But ... if intelligence reveals that the Kims are indeed passing bombs, bomb components, or bomb tech to ISIL ... that, to me, would justify a full-scale regime change war.  Trouble is, there's absolutely no way I trust that the US government will get that appraisal right, not after seeing how it **** the bed in 2003.

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* Why I don't worry about missiles: foreign missiles are super hard to reverse engineer, and no country that owns ICBMs will sell the DPRK one anyway. They're trying to develop their own indigenous designs, but long-range missiles require a lot of tests to shake down. Those tests are extremely expensive and impossible to keep secret, so we know that the DPRK doesn't test their missiles with nearly the frequency necessary to make them reliable and accurate, especially at intercontinental ranges, especially because re-entry is a tricky problem to solve. Most of their current designs are liquid-fueled and truck mounted and need hours-long fueling cycles to fly; their flagship Taepodong-2 missile needs both a long fueling cycle and a static launchpad to fly. The USA has all kinds of reconnaissance assets watching those sites and are deploying missile defense systems to the Pacific.  So you've got missiles that are slow to fire, badly tested, inaccurate, with lots of countermeasures in the theater, and then somehow if everything goes right the DPRK wins a battle and kills a city ... but loses the very very short war to follow.

The DPRK navy has a new class of indigenous submarine under construction, one that may have SLBM capabilities, but I'm not worried about that either.  Missiles are hard, submarines are hard, missiles + submarines are super hard.  SLBM launch tests will be impossible to keep secret.  We'll be well aware of the progress they make there.

Edited by johnzo
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I think the key is leveraging other nations to take a stand.  The US just doesnt win when it goes it alone.  It could win.  But it pays a different price when everyone turns on them.

If the South Koreans attacks North Korea who could blame them.  NK has provoked them many times with no response.  SK is very patient.  Its a shame the younger Kim is also a nut.  At some point you have to hope there is internal regime change to someone wanting to free their people.

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1 hour ago, johnzo said:

We'll be well aware of the progress they make there

well thought out comment, thanks Johnzo, you have clearly thought about nuclear deterrence  more than a little bit.

The other side of the coin is, that the Americans would not have invaded Iraq if they truly believed that Iraq had nuclear and chemical weapons.

Which was a lesson that North Korea learned from. If you get nukes, you will not be invaded by the USA.

Edited by Mark F
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Iraq had used Chemical weapons in the past.  It gets stated they didnt have any but they did.  Also there was no second Gulf War.  The cease fire in the first Gulf War was contingent on multiple commitments by Saddam that he frequently violated.  He's probably pretty lucky that he wasnt taken out sooner.  But its a good warning for what happens when you feel regime change is needed.  Its not just agreeing that it would be good, its having a plan for what happens after.

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Iraq did use chem weapons..... with American assistance.

 

1. Curveball alcoholic liar, Chalabi, convicted criminal fraudster, German intelligence warning, Valerie Plame,  yellowcake african country crude document forgery,  Judith Miller, Iraq survey group conclusion no wmd, illegal invasions, Downing Street memo. Depleted uranium, Fallujah. Al Quaeda not in Iraq. Collin Powell United nations WMD mobile labs. "We know where they are"

have a look at those.

 

 

Edited by Mark F
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10 minutes ago, Mark F said:

Iraq did use chem weapons..... with American assistance.

 

1. Curveball alcoholic liar, Chalabi, convicted criminal fraudster, German intelligence warning, Valerie Plame,  yellowcake african country crude document forgery,  Judith Miller, Iraq survey group conclusion no wmd, illegal invasions, Downing Street memo. Depleted uranium, Fallujah. Al Quaeda not in Iraq. Collin Powell United nations WMD mobile labs. "We know where they are"

have a look at those.

 

 

We're delving into a whole other debate.  But I wish the Bush admin had not hinged the Iraq war on WMDs.  they didnt need to.  Saddam was obligated to comply with conditions of the ceasefire or a return to hostilities was warranted.  He didn't.  Under pressure, Bush even relented on his last chance offer and gave another last chance offer for Saddam to comply.  He did not.

Iraq is a good example of realising that sometimes the vile despot you know is better than the ones you dont.

They should be using other means to deal with North Korea, getting China to reign them in is a great first step.  Identifying anyone in North Korea leadership who might want to join the real world and trying to elevate that ;person to a position of power would be nice.  Maybe unrealistic.  But if the US swept in tomorrow and removed the government, what happens?  Does South Korea take over North Korea?

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50 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Saddam was obligated to comply with conditions of the ceasefire or a return to hostilities was warranted.  He didn't.

You are deep into the area of alternative facts. Just stating your opinion is pretty meaningless. If you want to respond to something I post,  to persuade me that you are correct,  add a link to some facts somewhere or other.

Iraq gave an 11,000 page report to the UN. The Americans refused to respond to it. Iraq  was  fully in compliance with UN orders and requirements.

Iraq was crawling with UN people who were finding nothing. Bush got impatient, ordered them out (without any authority to do that) and invaded. The post war American effort to turn something up which cost hundreds of millions of dollars, found nothing.

It's all in the public record.

 

Edited by Mark F
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38 minutes ago, Mark F said:

You are deep into the area of alternative facts. Just stating your opinion is pretty meaningless. If you want to respond to something I post,  to persuade me that you are correct,  add a link to some facts somewhere or other.

Iraq gave an 11,000 page report to the UN. The Americans refused to respond to it. Iraq  was  fully in compliance with UN orders and requirements.

Iraq was crawling with UN people who were finding nothing. Bush got impatient, ordered them out (without any authority to do that) and invaded. The post war American effort to turn something up which cost hundreds of millions of dollars, found nothing.

It's all in the public record.

 

Im not arguing with you.  Not trying to change your mind.  Dont care what you believe.  Your opinion is as meaningless as mine.   But the report you mention was incomplete actually.  The Chief UN inspector stated Iraq wasnt fully complying or accepting of the conditions.  In retrospect, they should not have invaded.  And you're entitled to you opinion, but dont condescend to me on the issue.  Especially if you post statements that are only partially true.

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42 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Some fun thoughts about two interviews Trump gave.  He's an idiot people.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/01/politics/donald-trump-andrew-jackson-wiretapping/index.html

""He was really angry that he saw what was happening with regard to the Civil War, Trump said. There's no reason for this.'"

Well, Jackson died in 1845.      The Civil War began in 1861.

Unsettling, that the President of the United States is a two fisted moron.

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10 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

US historian believes that Trump will stage a fascist coup before 2020 in an attempt to remain President.

 

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/donald-trump-trying-to-stage-a-coup-and-overthrow-democracy-is-inevitable-says-top-us-historian/ar-BBABDWa?li=AAggFp5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They said the same thing about George W.  The left always thinks the right is trying to stage a coup.  lol

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12 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

US historian believes that Trump will stage a fascist coup before 2020 in an attempt to remain President.

 

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/donald-trump-trying-to-stage-a-coup-and-overthrow-democracy-is-inevitable-says-top-us-historian/ar-BBABDWa?li=AAggFp5

Can't see it, Hitler was a massively popular politician, Trump....not so much.

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26 minutes ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

Can't see it, Hitler was a massively popular politician, Trump....not so much.

His "grab her" remarks almost had Pence and others diving overboard so an attempt to seize power wouldnt work.  Other Republicans wouldn't allow it.  Pence and the cabinet would remove him.  Failing that, Congress would.  I see no way it could happen in the US.  Despite ego and selfishness, too many congressmen would not disregard the Constitution. 

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6 hours ago, The Unknown Poster said:

They said the same thing about George W.  The left always thinks the right is trying to stage a coup.  lol

Timothy Snyder isn't "the left". He is world renowned historian who specializes in Eastern European history and has written books on subjects like the Cold War, Hitler and Stalin which have all won numerous awards. If he sees parallels between Trump and Hitler it would be dumb, IMO, to ignore it. Trump has already used a number of fascist tactics to attack anyone who disagrees or criticizes him.

 

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