ShyGuy

It's hard to say if the FGA attempts extrapolated over would have much of a different. I don't know the math behind the stat but based on the title "points above expected" I would expect it to be cumulative. So each attempt would be considered individually. If say you have a 30 yard attempt, you can never have a 100% make rate, but that is probably what, 98% say, so your expected points on a 30 yard field goal would be 3 * .98 = 2.94. So if you make that your points above expected would be 3 - 2.94 = 0.06. But if you were to miss it you would be -2.94. But if you have a 60 yard attempt, the make rate would be closer to say... 25%? So the expected points would be 3 * .25 = .75, so your points above expectation would be 2.25, but if you were to miss you would only be .75 in the red... but most kickers wouldn't need to worry about that because they wouldn't even be trotted out for that attempt.

Yeah his 2024 numbers aren't bad, but didn't Willie just say "yesterdays price is not todays price" https://3downnation.com/2024/02/21/b-c-lions-sign-qb-vernon-adams-jr-to-contract-extension-through-2026/ Teams aren't dealing with his 2024 numbers (unless the Lions accelerate some of whats due in 2025/26 into this year... and based on Betts and Rourke coming on this year good luck). It's the 500k hard money in 2025, and the 250K guaranteed in 2026 that teams would be worried about.

Ehhhh I would say its not exactly a secret what needs to happen. Adams CANNOT be on that roster at the start of the season. The Salary Cap won't allow it. The teams that are in on him know there is a possibility they can get him, its just a matter of do you deal with the Lions and provide enough trade capital (read: anything) to get him, or wait until he is cut and then attempt to outbid the other teams. It is similar to Dru Brown... everyone knew the Bombers weren't going to keep him, but Ottawa gave the Bombers a draft pick to get a window to ensure they were the only ones competing for his services until he became a FA. I'm not sure what other teams salary cap numbers are like, maybe there is a team that can slide in take the hit on his guarantees in exchange for a draft pick, and then either neogotiate his contract way down or cut him and let the Lions off the hook.

Feel free to look back at drive data and chart it out yourself. If you want to set the bar of "get the ball back immediately in field goal range" as starting beyond your 41 but before the oppoennts 20 (the league charts opponent drive start at own 1-20, own 20-40, own 41-54, opp 55-41, opp 40-20, opp 20-1) the Bombers opponents had 53 drives that started in that range (which by quick math would be the lowest in the league I think) and this doesn't take into account Turnovers (31) or "Big Play Returns" [30+ yards] (8) but based on these numbers I think you will probably find the answer to "how may times did we see teams get back ball from us in field goal range" is "not as often as other teams"

This is why you use a metric like net avg per team, instead of each teams punt distance average and league average return yards. The team punting the ball 65 yards isn't giving up 8 yards per return.

Baily was being underpaid by us for years because he was stuck at WR4 or 5. Even if they had managed to keep him around, it would have been at the expense of Wilson or Clercius... I think you might take either of those over a 31 year old Bailey even though he was probably my favorite Bomber of the last few years. Jeffcoat was always a bit of a glass cannon Grant was obviously a miss, but I think there were concerns about his durability because Buck was obsessed with running the teams 170 LB star returning up the middle on offense. I don't think Walker is even playing football any more?

I feel bad for Brady. He is a dude who seems like he really cares and despite the game plan seemingly always being pass heavy, by my math he is now 6th all time in Grey Cup Rushing yards despite being 0-3 (82 in 22, 119 in 23 and 84 in 24) which puts him behind Robert Drummond in #5 @ 312 and ahead of Jackie Parker at 275

I don't understand the series that Wilson got when they were trying to stop Collaros' hand from leaking. You don't let your backup QBs throw all season, you have the MOP in the backfield, you get the ball on the 30 with a huge play from Willie after the let down on that punt block, you are down... 17-13 I think at that point so a TD puts you in the lead, and you dial up 4 straight passes, 1 of which should have been picked in the end zone on an underthrow, and another that was a bit of an overthrow.

That seemed weird and I am curious as to what actually happened there. I don't think the Argos actually had anyone coming back at that point? He was always came across as very... intense in all his social media. I wonder if something happened behind the scenes.

When he gets closer to his target return date we'll start hearing about how hes "in the best shape of his life" and then it will be "he just needs to get a feel for it in practice and he is ready to go" and then "the injury isn't really responding how he would like so he's going to take a few more weeks to get ready" and then they'll hope no one remembers any of this as he is coaching the linebackers from the sidelines.

Milligan didn't even lead his team in special teams tackles. I think this is the first time I've seen 'Defensive Plays Total' around the talk to MODP/MOP, not even taking into account Special Teams Tackles being part of it. The Riders managed to turn that gigantic positive TO ratio into a huge amount of punts. The Riders had 103 punt returns against... the next closest team had 80! So yeah he's gonna have more opportunities for STT.

Oh I figured that. Just curious about the Toronto timeouts haha

The league actually put up a HUGE chunk of old Grey Cups as part of... Grey Cup 110?... just have to sign up for CFL Plus https://www.cfl.ca/grey-cup-on-demand-list/ So at the end of the 3rd quarter, when KSB had that catch that was ruled no catch, and Mace tried to challenge it but was told it was already confirmed, the sideline mics picked up O'Shea referencing 'the ******* timeouts you let ******* toronto have'... anyone have any more context on that?

I hope this season ends up being fools gold for the Riders. 9-8-1 season mired by a 7 game winless stretch but buoyed by an otherworldly turnover ratio. An aging QB that finally seems to be able to find the end zone (on something like 21% of his drives) but of the 11 games he started, 5 of them were against the 3 teams that missed the playoffs (and were the worst in opponent TD percentage). But you made it to the West Finals! Run it back Kings!

As well they should be. This was probably their best shot. They overachieved based on start of year expectations but underacheived in being a 9 win team with a TO ratio you'd expect a 14 win team to have. This reeks of a situation where they think they are a piece or two away, but if they run back Harris at 39 he's more likely than not to transform into a pumpkin and they'll get a harsh dose of reality when they aren't producing 4 TOs a game (even though this season all they could really do was transform those into punts).