The Unknown Poster
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Game 82 - Flames @ Jets
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
Term could be something too. There are a lot of teams. Odds are someone would offer him more money or more term or both. The X factor is Stafford because I wonder if he has altered the Jets plans at all. Where they might have been willing to capitulate to Frolik a bit maybe they don't want to now -
Jets vs Ducks Analysis
The Unknown Poster replied to The Unknown Poster's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
What happens if the Jets go up 3-1 in the series? I bet there will be a definitive line between fans that remember 1.0 and fans that dont. -
Jets vs Ducks Analysis
The Unknown Poster replied to The Unknown Poster's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
Here's how the Ducks' blogger sees it: Western Conference Quarter Finals – 6 games As mentioned earlier, the Jets play physical hockey and they have some big bodies on the roster. Don't be surprised, barring injury, to see Tim Jackman and Clayton Stoner play every game. If it gets particularly rough, Chris Wagner may play at the expense of someone like Jiri Sekac. Winnipeg had an amazing run of goaltending the final week of the season, yielding one goal over four games. I do believe that Ondrej Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson are good enough goalies to steal a game or maybe two from the Ducks, neither of them is capable of pulling out the series. Frederik Andersen, on the other hand, can be that good. Ll in all the Ducks are too talented to drop this series. I should point out that all he wrote is two paragraphs because his analysis concerns the Ducks entire playoff run...to the Cup. getting a little ahead of himself maybe -
Jets vs Ducks Analysis
The Unknown Poster replied to The Unknown Poster's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
should have linked. he's the Jets blogger for hockeybuzz. He often has some stats that Im too lazy to look up myself, so there's that. -
Jets vs Ducks Analysis
The Unknown Poster replied to The Unknown Poster's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
The money has been pouring in on the Jets. They might end up favoured by game time lol Maurice doing his best to embrace the underdog role. -
From Peter Tessier: There’s going to be a lot of noise about the first round opponents the Jets will face starting on Thursday, that being the Anaheim Ducks. But what about the Jets? One can site all the reasons the Jets made the post season, the work of Paul Maurice, the timely trades and signings of Kevin Cheveldayoff, the play of various individual players, and so on and so on. The basic premise as to why the Jets will face the Ducks is this: they are a vastly improved team in many areas. To improve this much is part and parcel to all the moves that were made, Maurice was not going to do it alone not was Chevy going to be able to sign, draft, develop, and trade for the right mixture as well. However, the one thing that stands out above all other things with certainty is this- the Jets received league average or better goaltending for the majority of the season. Without this critical change no one in Winnipeg or around the league would be arguing about the origins, entitlement or protocol to a ‘whiteout’. The task for the Jets begins and ends with defeating the Ducks and it’s probably worth noting some key differences and similarities between the two teams. Goals and Shots The Ducks boast some of the biggest names and salaries in the league to help them score goals, Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler being the top three but then there’s a drop. In fact it’s a pretty big drop. After the big three the Ducks have one skater with 20 plus goals and only 7 with 10 or more goals. The Ducks only scored 6 more goals than the Jets, 236 compared to 230. At even strength, 5 vs 5, it gets a bit better with 157 vs 143 but this is not a massive leap. On the PP the Ducks scored only 36 goals compared to Winnipeg’s 48. The Jets had a +20 goal differential and the Ducks +10 So with only 6 goals total difference how did the Ducks manage to win the top spot in the West and the Jets the 8th? The Ducks won 51 games for 102 points while the Jets managed 43 for 86 points and then it splits to 43 vs 36 for ROW (regulation or OT losses). Maybe that’s just luck at the right times and gives partial explanation to the separation. (all stats derived from all score situations compared to even strength from War on Ice) When looking at scoring rates the Ducks are equal to the Jets, 2.7 G/60 vs 2.7 G/60 At even strength: 2.4 G/60 vs 2.3 G/60 When looking at shooting rates the Ducks are ahead of the Jets, 29.5 S/60 vs 29.2/60 At even strength: 28.8 S/60 vs 28.7 S/60 When looking at Shot Differential the Ducks are ahead of the Jets, 91 vs 89 At even strength: 127 vs 58 When looking at On Ice Shooting % the Ducks are ahead of the Jets, 9.3% vs 9.1% At even strength: 8.3% vs 7.8% Luck There is no smoking gun here that lays claim to either team having an advantage therefore looking at the luck variables may make things a bit clearer. The first one to look at is PDO, a stat that measures the team’s shooting percentage combined with the save percentage. The premise of this is when added together it should be close to 100 as based on historical league averages. The Ducks had a season PDO of 99.9% vs the Jets at 100.5% in all situations, at even strength it breaks down to: Ducks- 100.2 vs Jets- 100.7. There is just not much spread here either and once again it would be fair to say the 10 point spread is simply some luck and opportunity going one way or the other for each team. If you look at the season in halves, start to December 31st the Jets had a PDO in all situations of 100 vs the Ducks at 99.7. At even strength it’s reversed Jets at 99.7 vs Ducks at 100. For the second half of Jan 1 to April 14th in all situations the Jets had a PDO of 100.9 vs the Ducks at 100.2 At even strength: Jets 101.5 vs 100.4 Once again there is no discernible advantage other than the Jets in the second half of this season at even strength but still, not much difference and did the recent hot streak help? Possession This is the metric that all teams want to be strong at, even the Kings. Using them (the Kings) as an example is interesting as in 2012 they were an 8th seeded team that caught lightning in a bottle at the right time and road it through to a championship. Some would suggest the Jets could be the Kings in 2015; a good possession team with a sub-par starting goalie. Without the explanation here is a quicker comparison of CORSI and Fenwick Corsi Jets at even strength: 52.5 for season 51.6 first half 53.3 second half Corsi Ducks at even strength: 51.2 for season 50.8 first half 51.6 second half Corsi Jets at all situations: 51.8 season 52.0 first half 51.6 second half Corsi Ducks at all situations: 51.1 season 50.9 first half 51.3 second half Fenwick Jets at even strength: 52.0 season 50.9 first half 52.9 for second half Fenwick Ducks at even strength: 51.7 season 51.5 first half 51.9 second half Fenwick Jets at all situations: 51.2 season 51.3 first half 51.1 second half Fenwick Ducks at all situations: 51.6 season 51.7 first half 51.5 second half This is another wash with a few differences but more evidence that the teams are much more similar than they are different. The Jets, for the course of the season, seem to edge higher on possession and that would suggest they are doing more to guide shots at the net than the Ducks are, but not by much. Scoring Chances Ultimately possession needs to lead to scoring chances and those chances need to lead to goals. Fortunately we can look at scoring chance data now and see who is making things happen due to their efforts of possession. For this metric we will use season data for comparison. Scoring Chance For % in all situations: Jets at 52.2 vs Ducks at 51.6 Scoring Chance Differential in all situations: Jets +145 vs Ducks +182 Scoring Chances per 60 Mins in all situations: Jets at 28.1/60 vs Ducks at 26.5/60 Scoring Chance For % at even strength: Jets at 52.2 vs Ducks at 52.3 Scoring Chance Differential at even strength: Jets +150 vs Ducks +145 Scoring Chances per 60 Mins at even strength: Jets at 27.0/60 vs Ducks at 25.6/60 Is there much here to give either team an edge? Once again these teams seem equally competent in creating opportunity, and with the goals scored noted above they seem equally competent at conversion too. Goaltending The real battle lines may be drawn with goaltending and that is where these teams may still have similarities. Ondrej Pavelec Even strength: .930 save% .937 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.28 All Situations: .920 save % .929 Adjusted save % SA/60 28.63 Frederik Andersen Even Strength: .920 save % .926 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.03 All Situations: .914 save % .919 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.75 Michael Hutchinson Even Strength: .925 save % .929 Adjusted save % SA/60 26.23 All Situations: .913 save % .920 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.68 John Gibson Even Strength: .924 save % .922 Adjusted save % SA/60 29.81 All Situations: .913 save % .917 Adjusted save % SA/60 30.2 See anything? The real telltale is the Jets goaltending is better and most interesting is over the course of the season the Jets allowed less shots in front of Hutch than Pavelec while there is mark jump between Andersen and Gibson. It goes up by 3 shots per game when the Ducks have Gibson in net. There’s not much to learn from this other than neither team has had elite level goaltending year battled to win the conference and scrap into top eight respectively. It’s not going to be easy but one has to wonder if you take the fan hat off, do Jets fans feel they have an advantage when looking at these stats? These again are the statistics most them can be used as predictive should the viewer so desire but they are not conclusive. Neither team has any meaningful advantage in these baseline metrics of the new generation. If this series is to come down to uncontrolled variables, luck and intangibles the stats probably support that line of thinking. That’s also a different topic and where part two of the series preview will come in to play. Thanks for reading- part two coming soon.
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And how about in Tulsa where a 73 year old volunteer deputy participated in a sting on a man selling illegal handguns. Suspect fled, cops chased. Struggle took place and the deputy intended to taze him, instead pulling his handgun and shooting the suspect. All captured on video. As for Jodi Arias, I followed that case too. What a nutjob. And quite stupid. Its a good thing criminals are so dumb. Although good effort in reverse pyschology in asking for the death penalty.
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If you really read the thread you know the answer. The narrative of "oh he was just running away" isn't accurate. Add in the warrants, the assault, the struggle over the stun gun....the bigger picture isn't as near and tidy as originally thought. In a perfect world the cop would not have shot the guy. The victims actions lead to the shooting. The cop made the choice to shoot. Honestly the worst thing the cop did was plant the stun gun. That's going to be the hint hole in any Defense even if he's innocent. And again by the law this ain't mirder. I was reading opinion. I'm still reading opinion. You'll have to be more specific. There is opinion and fact. Feel free to contribute. More info from CNN: (CNN)Two pieces of audio recorded in the immediate aftermath of a deadly police shooting in South Carolina emerged Monday. The voice of Michael Slager can be heard in both. The former North Charleston police officer is charged with murder in the death of 50-year-old Walter Scott. Michael Slager is charged with murder. In the first recording, an unidentified officer talks to Slager about what might happen. "Once they get here, it'll be real quick. They're gonna tell you, you're gonna be off for a couple days and we'll come back and interview you then. They're not gonna ask you any type of questions right now. They're gonna take your weapon," the officer says. "It'd probably be a good idea to jot down your thoughts about whatever happened ... once the adrenaline stops pumping." Slager responds: "It's pumping," and then laughs. The second audio, taken from dash cam video from inside a patrol car, captures a phone call between Slager and someone CNN believes is his wife. He tells her: "Hey. Hey, everything's OK. OK? I just shot somebody." "He grabbed my Taser, yeah. Yeah," says Slager. "He was running from me. ... I'm fine." If convicted of murder, the former officer faces up to life in prison or the death penalty, although a death penalty case appears unlikely at this point. "Based on the facts revealed thus far, it does not appear South Carolina's death penalty provision applies in this case because there are no statutory 'aggravating circumstances' present," Scarlett A. Wilson, who is the chief prosecutor for the Ninth Judicial Circuit in the state, said on her Facebook page. Slager was charged after cell phone video emerged, showing him firing at Scott as the man ran away. Pierre Fulton was riding in a car with Scott before the shooting took place. "Walter was a dear friend and I miss him every day," Fulton said in a statement given to ABC News by his lawyer. "Over the past five years he helped me to become a better man and showed me the value of hard work." "I'll never know why he ran, but I know he didn't deserve to die," Fulton said. "Please keep Walter and his family in your prayers and respect my privacy moving forward." Scott's death has reignited a national conversation around race and policing. Scott was black; Slager is white. The case has also brought to light previous instances in which Slager's behavior on the job is being questioned. On Monday, attorneys for a man named Julius Wilson announced that they were filing a lawsuit in connection with an August 2014 traffic stop. During the stop, three officers -- including Slager -- pulled Wilson out of his car. Wilson was then allegedly shocked with a stun gun. The suit claims Slager used excessive force. Slager was also named in a police complaint in 2013 after he allegedly "Tased a man for no reason" before slamming him to the ground and dragging him, according to the North Charleston Police Department. At the time, Slager was searching for a suspect who was described as being 5-feet-5-inches tall. The African-American man he confronted was 6-feet-3 inches tall. A lawyer for Mario Givens, the man who filed the complaint, said last week that his client plans to file a lawsuit. Givens said Slager came to his door, ordered him out of the house and then Tased him. Slager was later cleared in that incident.
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Game 82 - Flames @ Jets
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
I think he will go to UFA and take the highest offer. -
Round 1 - Game 1 : Jets @ Anaheim
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
That will be another interesting aspect. Buff likes D obviously and the D pairings in practice today give some clue as to what the playoffs will bring but it will be hard for the Jets not to look at Buff's success during that run and not get him in front of the net. The good news is, as a D, Buff still likes to be deep in the offensive zone so Im sure there will be times where a forward slips to the point and Buff b-lines it right to the front. If the Jets get down does he switch. -
Game 82 - Flames @ Jets
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
Frolik would be a big loss. Can play anywhere. He's partially why the Jets were able to overcome injuries because he can play top line minutes without being a liability let alone adding offensive production. But Im sure his agent looks at the fact he played on the "number one line" and will want top six money. The Jets will counter with "we're a multi-line team" and in a perfect woprld Frolik is a championship calibre third line RW and offer that sort of money. By now, the Jets and the agent know what each other want. I find it difficult to believe, being this close, Frolik wouldnt go to Free Agency. He'd have to really like it here and not feel the offers would be substantially more elseware. -
I agree that police should be held to higher standards due to their training. I can also tell you I've seen video of police in action that would indicate they either did not remember their training or had not used it in enough time to have forgotten it. Plus, in tense situations, if you are very well trained to the point your body reacts to the training, it will simply react to the normal fight or flight response in all humans. I've had some training and experience. The first time someone pulled a knife on me when I was 18 years old, I panicked and freaked out. I literally couldnt even speak properly and couldnt remember anything that happened in detail (ie. description of suspect). In later years, a knife being pulled on me resulted in the suspect being disarmed and restrained. Same for medical. First time I come across an injured, bloody person = panic. In later years, dealt with all the time and its an instinctive reaction to immediately spring to work assisting. It used to be difficult to go to bars on days off because my partners and I would instinctively be "on patrol" scanning the crowd and reacting to movements and whatnot. Hard to relax. One of my trainers actually advised wearing a cup (some guys did, I never did) and wore his every moment of every day that he was outside his home. Anyway, enough about me. I also agree that once the suspect fled, the danger was over. I could argue the point that a suspect that has a premeditated plan to evade capture (remember his brother said he would run rather than risk jail) and was willing to assault an officer in the process represented a danger to officers at large. We dont know what else the suspect might have done had he escaped. Car jack? Take a hostage? Go home and watch Family Guy? We dont know. We only know what he did in those few moments. I have actually been generally unimpressed with the actions of police officers in recent years. The tazer mentality has made it too easy and instinctive for police to take an arms-length approach to policing. I want officers to be safe but the job requires risk. It requires them to step forward and risk injury or death to defend the community. You see instances where 20 cops surround a guy with a knife and they shoot him. I can say they were justified at the same time as saying "really? Twenty cops couldnt have taken him down?" But I think the officer in this case could likely find experts that would testify that he followed his training because at the moment he reached for his gun, he was under duress and felt in grave danger. It's not for you or me to say how that person felt. They feel how they feel. But a jury will get to hear all about his training, how he is taught to react, what he *should* feel in that situation and if he was justified in shooting whether the suspect was two feet in front of him or twenty. ***EDIT*** to add, on the subject of the Warrants. I was talking to a buddy and he asked that question, did the officer know of the warrants when the suspect fled. And I said we dont know. I thought his point was going to be "well if its just a child support payment issue, so what, let him run" but he said "If he didnt know, then as far as the officer knew, the suspect could have been armed, dangerous, a fugitive etc...he ran for a reason, why did he run? The cop couldnt know and had to assume there was a reason and if the suspect felt he needed to run then the cop had to stop him." Interesting perspective.
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Round 1 - Game 1 : Jets @ Anaheim
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
Jets have better special teams and Ducks can take questionable penalties (like the Jets). i've seen people say that Getzlaf and Perry can get frustrated and riled up which takes them off their game and prone to penalties. Will be interesting to see if we can needle them to death. Will our Powerplay ever see Myers and Buff together, either on the point or one in front of the net? Imagine those two bodies cycling around, changing places between point and net front. It will be exciting to see if Buff can be the same player he was for Chicago in the Playoffs. -
The tazer does have leads that extend. They can be seen at the very start of the video. I believe they get expelled at some point and the stun gun can be used as a regular (non projectile) stun gun, which is why it was dangerous for the officer if he missed the suspect and the suspect was fighting with him for control of it. You are correct though that we dont know what was dropped beside the victim, at least not that I've seen. We've made the assumption it was the tazer but again, you're correct that if it was the tazer sans leads, then the leads were still laying where they were fired which changes the officer's story a bit. I cant see it being a gun the officer placed there because even in his initial story before the video surfaced, there was no mention of a second gun.
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Game 82 - Flames @ Jets
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
Getting Staff at $4 million per for three years would be okay by me. Frolik...$3.5 for four years. Stemp said it came down to Winnipeg and New York when he was a UFA so I cant see why we couldnt re-sign him unless he thinks he will have more offers this summer than last. In Winnipeg, he is in a good position to play his game, have success etc. Even as a bottom six guy here, he has the opportunity to play up in the event of injuries. -
Round 1 - Game 1 : Jets @ Anaheim
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
Someone who is more familiar with the Ducks, how deep are they? It seems they have higher end offensive talent than us, but arent we the deeper team through four lines? The more I read, the more I think Ill feel disappointed if we dont beat them. I think the Jets are better. I am concerned about nerves and goaltending. If the team plays their game and we get good goaltending, we should win. Im looking forward to how the coaching staff game plans this too. -
Its not about me being wrong and them right. This is my opinion. Im only giving you personal experience to support my opinion because I know what its like to be under grave threat. The problem with your position is you're taking the image of the cop shooting a person running away as if its the total story, which it isnt. I read a story on this but dont have it as I cant remember which story it was but it explained that Murder in that jurisdiction requires premeditation. Clearly that was not the case. Im sure you'd agree. I think he was charged with murder because it looked really really bad and there was political pressure. I think on its surface this looked like a racially motivated bad shooting. I think what we have learned since and upon further reflection, there is no evidence that this was racially based. In fact, the interaction of the officer with the suspect didnt indicate anything unusual. The officer's attempt, after the suspect fled, to use a stung gun demonstrates that the cop was going by the book, and had no desire to use lethal force. That changes when the officer was under threat. How many seconds passed from the moment the officer made any motion towards his gun, to the time of the shooting? I think you previously admitted had the cop shot him at the location of the altercation that this would be a "good shooting". The defense will surely have several shrinks and experts detailing the fight or flight response, the body's reaction to threat, the time it took to fire etc. How a person perceives situations can be very different. Remember when Vince Li killed that guy on the bus? The witnesses described him as huge. He's actually very small. They all perceived him, due to the threat and their reactions, to be this massive person. That answered the question as to why did nobody try to stop him. They were all petrified and felt under grave threat. Now, we hold cops to a higher standard. I have no problem with that. That's going to be up to a jury to decide. I bet the DA will ask for the jury to be given the option of manslaughter.
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If you really read the thread you know the answer. The narrative of "oh he was just running away" isn't accurate. Add in the warrants, the assault, the struggle over the stun gun....the bigger picture isn't as near and tidy as originally thought. In a perfect world the cop would not have shot the guy. The victims actions lead to the shooting. The cop made the choice to shoot. Honestly the worst thing the cop did was plant the stun gun. That's going to be the hint hole in any Defense even if he's innocent. And again by the law this ain't mirder.
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Ive said from the start that if the cop feels himself or others are imminent danger then yes he can use his gun. But this is not the case here. The guy was running away and did not have the cops tazer. The witness said they were in a tussle and the cop was in control untill the guy got away and ran... we dont know if he went for the cops tazer. The cop had no idea the guy had warrants. Its not like this guy was some young gangbanger dude. The cop had no reason to assume that anybody life was in danger when he ran from the car or ran from the cop after the tussle. The danger to the cop was over when the guy ran away because he had no weapon. Hence the cop being fired and charged with murder and held without bail. Attacking a cop and potentially trying to kill him does not represent a person who could be an imminent threat? Let me ask you this, if that cop just shrugged and said oh well he ran off and the suspect rounded the corner and car jacked a loved one of yours, killing them in the process would you still think the cop did the right thing? Regardless it's not for you to interpret the law, what imminent threat means or if this officer was lawfully permitted to use his weapon under the circumstances. Because his Defense is likely to be that 1) he had the legal right to shoot 2) having just been assaulted he was felt under threat I've been assaulted many times. Been hit with weapons. Had guns pointed at me. Bear sprayed. Etc. sometimes you're a slave to your physical reaction when under threat and pressure. Some people freeze. Some people run. Some people attack. This certainly isn't murder and I wouldn't be surprised to see the charge reduced though there will be political pressure not to.
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Game 82 - Flames @ Jets
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
It's not the jets style to rush anyone. Would not surprise me to see slater resigned for one year and Copp to hone his craft in the AHL. But you never know. The big take away to me was his tremendous face off percentage. If he keeps that up he makes the decision tougher for slater -
Round 1 - Game 1 : Jets @ Anaheim
The Unknown Poster replied to FrostyWinnipeg's topic in Winnipeg Jets Discussion
We match up well against the Ducks. Stay out of the box. Play our style. Jets in 6. -
Unintelligent argument and you know it. Speaking soecificslly about this case it was not warrants for traffic tickets. And regardless of the penalty, the victim thought je was going to jail which is why he fled, assaulted an officer, attempted to take his stun gun and ran off again. Silly arguments being made here. Did the cop walk up to the car and shoot him for having a broken tail light? No he didn't. So let's stop with the "shot over a traffic violation" nonsense.