TrueBlue4ever

Bombers drafted Tyson Pencer who had disciplinary issues in college (trying to find the exact issue, help if you know), signed Onterrio Smith who was kicked off his college team and got busted with an”anti-drug detection kit” (a.k.a “Whizzinator”) at the airport, and had convicted murderer Gerry Sawatsky on the team for a few years. And every accused or convicted criminal who does their time can move on with life afterwards, so legally they are entitled to be employed. If one wants to question the morals of a team that employs ne’er-do-wells, OK that is your prerogative, but let’s not pretend that the Bombers are lily white and the Stamps are trash if one feels inclined to cast judgment. Every team has its skeletons.

Andrew Harris? Glass houses, people.

New York Post reporting that the Rangers are watching the Jets closely to see if Maurice gets fired, as they are ready to snap him up. Guess someone still thinks he is a good coach.

Thanks Dr. for that reasoned analysis of Dubois. My brother from Toronto kept asking “wonder how they would have looked with Laine” and with Dubois struggling it was hard to answer. Forgot how young he still is, and this year was a tough one mentally no doubt. And yes Laine’s deficiencies are a big factor. The knee jerk reaction when we struggle to score is to look longingly his way.

If we opt to go younger/faster with Harkins/VESA/Gustafson/Perfetti and Heinola/Samberg, then the fire PoMo brigade needs to zip it when we have our inevitable regression to likely a non-playoff spot. Expect short term pain if we go that route, which is OK if it means long term improvement (like from 2015-17 into 2017-18) AND fans don’t freak out. First part would not be an unreasonable approach, the second part is wishful thinking knowing this fan base.

Morrissey definitely stepped up against the Oilers. Was more invisible against Montreal (who wasn’t other than Helle and maybe Lowry/Ehlers and two shifts of Stanley?). Perhaps losing DeMelo was the deciding factor (again, Morrissey’s partner dictating how good he is, you’d hope it is the other way around for a #1 paid defenceman). And re:Perrault - sometimes those out to create chaos look chaotic. He is far from polished in that role, but he is one of a very few who could move from 4th to 1st line and in between and not look lost. I give him credit for that at least. Likely not back unless he signs a super low one year deal.

Long post, so read or don’t read, but I don’t need you telling me either way. You know what you get with me by now. So negatives first. A sweep at any time is disappointing and maddening, and for the 3rd post season in a row, when facing elimination the Jets have responded with their absolute worst game of the playoffs and looked very outmatched. Their defence has not recovered from the dismantling 2 seasons ago, and their highest paid defender continues to regress. Analytically (if you believe in that advanced stuff) the Jets are perpetually outplayed at 5 on 5 by the numbers. Their top scorers disappeared at various times down the stretch and their depth scoring did not show up. Teams figured out that an aggressive forecheck on the penalty kill could nullify the power play, and the Jets did not adjust. The Jets penalty kill was about shot blocking mainly, and when they decided to pressure the point other teams adjusted better than we did. Systems need to be looked at in my mind given these issues. Percentage points-wise, they did not improve on last year. The positives. Many experts had the team finishing out of the playoffs, as low as 6th. Just prior to the late season slump they were vying for top spot, so they exceeded expectations. Percentage points-wise, they did not regress from last year. For those of you who do not believe in analytics, the actual results were pretty good. We swept the Oilers and shut down the top 2 offensive players in the league, no small feat and worthy of a “successful” year designation to most outsiders. Offensively still strong and deep, with better bottom 6 scoring this season (contract years will do that). Goaltending still elite. As for individuals: GM - Chevy still very good at drafting and getting players who sign to accept good contracts for salary cap purposes. He struggles with the quick fix to fill holes, impact free agents, and keeping some talent here. Not sure how much of the negatives are his fault or the reality of being Winnipeg, but it is his problem to deal with. But he is going nowhere so long as the ownership wants a steady ship rather than flash in the pan go for broke all or nothing style, and it seems like that is what we are going to be here in this market. Coaching - I know many have been waiting years for Maurice to get turfed, but he showed coming out of the last month slump that he has not yet lost the room or can’t keep the team motivated, and he showed in the first round that he can still devise a game plan to thwart high powered opposition. On the downside he did not get the team to adapt well to adversity or forecheck pressure against a big heavy check team (same problem last year with Calgary and the year before with St. Louis). I am not on the fire PoMo bandwagon mainly because it is a knee jerk reaction to the losses and a change for change’s sake rarely works if the team has not bottomed out. Plus I see this as a personnel issue as much as anything. But I know all coaches have a shelf life and if he does not re-structure things or show tangible steps towards rectifying issues then he could be gone. For anyone who wants him tossed, might I suggest concrete names of replacements who would be a step up (an “lol, anyone” response is weak - be better). I will say that Gerard Gallant would be someone worth chasing for sure, and is one of those rare coaches you go out of your way to make room for right now (similar to Florida axing him to make way for Quenneville). Not sure if Vignault still has the mojo he did 7-10 years ago. Maybe a shake-up of assistants? Again, Charlie Huddy can only do so much with the defence he has been given. But special teams needs to evolve on both sides. DeMelo - looked much better in playoffs than regular season, but good enough not to be exposed to Seattle? Poolman - if he is a 7th defenceman, that is OK. If asked to be top 4, management is not doing enough to get better players in Pionk - great regular season, faded at times in the playoffs (maybe he and DeMelo switched bodies), but solid guy. Again, if top 4 D we are happy, but top 2 a stretch if he has to carry the team Niku - seems destined to be a career minor leaguer at best right now Copp - took a huge step forward in regular season, was invisible in the playoffs. That should prevent a Brandon Tanev-like overpay in his next contract. Don’t see him jumping into top 6 forward territory, wonder if there is any more or if this is his ceiling (cautiously pessimistic that he won’t do more) Thompson - did what was expected of him, but completely replaceable with any random 4th line free agent pick-up Harkins - not sure why some felt he would be a difference maker if inserted into the line up for game 3 or 4 against the Habs. “Play the young guys” is not a viable strategy if they have shown nothing when given their opportunities (however limited - at some point it is up to the player to make an impression, not just be handed a plum spot). Needs a Copp-style leap forward next season or the team should move on Dubois - oh boy. Will reserve judgment on his playoffs until I hear the injury report Write-off of a year after his turbulent tenure with Torts, can only pray what was lost can be recovered. There is talent there, right? Fix what is between the ears and we’ll see where he fits, but right now Chevy must be screaming at him “do you know what I gave up to get you here??????” Heinola - another “play the young guy” favourite, and if he is ready, go for it, but the lat D man we rushed who showed early promise was Morrissey, the last one we patiently groomed was Stanley. Where do they each stand (adjusted for their respective natural talent levels) now? I know “patience” is a dirty word for fan bases, but the words “losing” and “bust” are Black Death Lowry - will never be top 6 scoring potential, but could be one of the best top 9 centres in the league. Happy to have him re-signed for sure. Little - just watching the clock run out on his contract on LTIR and then awaiting the retirement Gustafsson - Nothing more than a Harkins with less years under his belt at this point. See me in 2 years for a fresh opinion Toninato - COVID robbed us of seeing how he might be, good or bad. The game winner against the Oilers in game 1 might be enough to invite a further one year look Appleton - mid season surge with Copp and Lowry surrounded by a bunch of meh. Could be another long term growth player who could outshine Roslovic’s potential, but if we lose a forward in the expansion draft it is most likely him, and I would not lose sleep over it Lewis - like Thompson with a pinch more offence. I like his game and you want character and experience like his, but one hopes we can find better/cheaper/younger for 4th line depth going forward Forbert - on shot blocking and toughness alone I really liked him, but he cannot reasonably be expected to log top 4 minutes. Find him a 5-6 spot and I am happy because it means our top end got better Stastny - putting sentimentality for 2018 away, he was.....OK, and I am sure he was playing pretty beat up all playoffs. But if his injuries are a byproduct of his age, then time to find a replacement, unless he wants to come back on the cheap. Wheeler - no one can be a tougher critic on him than he is on hImself, and maybe that is a bit of the problem? You can see when he presses, and it can drag him down. And who knows how his locker-room leadership really translates? Will be a lightning rod for the haters because of the C and no ring, but he stands in front of the media every day and speaks for the team, so I give him immense credit for that in this market. Contract isn’t an anchor yet, but I can see the boat preparing to dock. But as long as he blocks shots with his testicles and doesn’t miss a shift, he has a spot on my team any day. Ehlers - If only we could clone this guy, or find him a magic line mate who could read his moves. More, please Legit question here - if by any chance we could get Laine back, would we take him? Serious answers only, and factor in everything including economics. Broissoit - very serviceable back-up, but if Hellebuyck went down for any period could he really carry the mail? Keep him at the same price until Berdin is ready to make the jump (notice I did not say Comrie) Hellebuyck - can we just jump to the 8 year extension now please? Or given his superstitious nature, a 4 year $37 million extension followed by a 3 year $37 million extension. Career Jet....make it so. Benn - Thompson or Lewis in the shape of a defenceman. Thanks for your 2 months of able service. Good luck in your next gig. Morrissey - oh boy, part 2. We need to find an elite defence partner for him so his contract can go back to looking really good instead of really troubling. He can be top 2 if protected by a strong partner, but does not appear to be the one to do the leading in a top 2 pairing. Do we open the vault for Seth Jones, and would that even be a good match? Samberg - Heinola with an extra year and less promise. May need to push him into the lineup next year ahead of schedule, wish we had the luxury not to. Scheifele - One hit has changed the trajectory of his career. Will he learn and rebound like Kucherov did after his suspension and be better and smarter, or will he become a Todd Bertuzzi and wilt? He seems to chafe at not being considered amongst the elite centres in the league, but it takes more than top 10 scoring to get that respect, and it must earned (will be tougher now than ever before). Will be fascinating and somewhat anxiety-inducing how he responds to all the press that came and will continue to come his way after “the incident”. But can a 10 year vet find the next level now, or have we seen his prime already? Dano - who? Stanley - a template for “let him over ripen in the minors”, even if he hadn’t really over ripened there. Makes the protected list on defence interesting (in one moment I think that if we protect DeMelo then Seattle may ignore Stanley anyway and take Appleton, whereas if we expose DeMelo he is gone for sure Then I ponder it again and think the opposite, that Stanley would get snatched but DeMelo left alone). Given the state of the defence, hoping a forward gets plucked either way, but if I had to choose now I take the size, strength, and future of Stanley and all its growing pains over the present of DeMelo (hinges on a free agent defence signing or trade) Seuss - another Harkins or another Appleton, needs more time on the minors (although his age is becoming a factor pushing him into career minor leaguer territory) Connor - his scoring made Laine expendable, his contract could provide great value in future years, and yet something big missing here. Streaky like all goal scorers can be, but he needs to learn defence badly or he will cause this team headaches. But tons of potential and already shows top end talent, so I can be forgiving here, for now. Ask me again in another year. Perrault - love that he just embraces whatever role he is given and puts his best forward, and he can adapt anywhere from top line to 4th line and offer scoring, grit, energy, or whatever you ask. Alas, eroding skill set would point him in the Lewis/Thompson “character veteran/glue guy” mold going forward. If he is prepared to take a large cut in pay to have a similar contract to theirs, he would be worth considering. But again, expendable at this stage if younger/cheaper/better is around. Beaulieu - did not miss him when we was injured. Like Benn, emergency fill-in at best at this point. Vesaleinen - his size and speed looked good in the playoffs in very limited viewings, but I think the club expects a ton more offence from him. His development decisions in where he wanted to play have hurt him, and with Laine gone is he more expendable? One of those “do we trade him now for more value than he is worth and look like geniuses, or does he blossom into what the hype hinted at and we get burned because we quit on him too soon?” types. Typically, if the talent does appear, it won’t happen here, so I’d be willing to listen to trade partners in the next year.

A thread to dissect the current state of the team, the upcoming expansion draft and possible player departures, and a discussion about where the team should focus heading into next season. Perhaps taking a few days to rationally process things and avoid knee jerk reactions would be in order - or not.

As Don Cherry once said, there are 3 certainties in life - death, taxes, and the Habs getting the late power play at home.

Free hockey.

So who of Morrissey, Pionk, DeMelo, or Stanley do we expose in the expansion draft?

So THIS is why Winnipeggers can be justifiably upset about the Scheifele suspension length. DOPS reviewed this, deemed that it was in fact a high stick, and fined Krejci the $5000 maximum. It is believed the fact that earlier missed calls justified the retaliation and played a part in the lower sanction. And in case there was any doubt, Barzal came right back the next shift, so again result and not intent is the defining factor in determining the punishment. Maybe Nate Thompson should take a hit, drop to the ice, and play dead until they stretcher him off the ice.

That would have been hilarious if I had not seen this 3 days ago

The wording of the rule explaining charging says absolutely nothing about strides (any number, not even the magic 3) or feet leaving the ice. Those are all myths and interpretations made up by broadcasters who don’t know the rule book (that includes level 5 ref Ron McLean). The simple wording is “as a result of distance travelled, shall violently check an opponent in any manner”. The rule book goes on to say that this can happen anywhere, open ice, into the boards or into the goal. Furthermore, if an injury occurs, the penalty is automatically a game misconduct where a major was called, and supplementary discipline can be warranted. There is also a section about intent to injure and majors and misconducts being called there, but this is an instance expressly written in the rule book where consequence will be factored in regardless of intent. By definition, this was textbook charging- contact point to body or head, strides, or intent does not matter. All that would have factored in to the suspension angle and it’s clear they did not buy Scheifele’s explanation. I disagree with the “correctness” of the 4 games given based on all the weak precedents for other stuff, but I would sadly say this is the “right” call based on the injury. I don’t like the inconsistency from DOPS, or the face that they penalize a hockey play that was excessive while turning a blind eye to all the cheap nonsense between the whistles. Flag Chariot for slashing Hellebuyck’s glove with the puck in it, head locking Scheifele and ripping his helmet off, slashing him and then only catching the retaliation, any number of Perry face washes, or Morrissey throwing a half check 2 seconds after the end of period horn sounded. Toss players for that cheap garbage and then the stars won’t look to light up a pest with his head down. But a former goon leading player safety will usually protect those like-minded pests and enforcers because he sees their role as valuable (a.k.a. There is a place in the game for them because they aren’t good enough to stay on the league on skill alone - just like Parros himself wasn’t).

Mine are both in University and have done better grades-wise than I could have imagined. But hard to say what the social distancing has done to them. My daughter has been in a long distance mostly online relationship for the past year, so she has coped. I feel like I can never get back what my son lost in the last 15 months. He graduated high school last year, was 3 days away from his senior school play. After 4 years of bit parts, finally had the lead role in his last play, only to have it cancelled when classes shut down that very week. He also lost out on his senior trip overseas which was a week later. And we had to cancel our family trip in the summer to Europe as a grad gift. Basically everything he was looking forward to was taken away, and they postponed grad 3 times up to October before they finally nixed it. Now a full year of online classes and he has said to me “do you think I will ever get a girlfriend?” since he has had to isolate for the better part of a year now instead of attending campus in his first year of university. Can’t imagine what this has done to the mental health of adolescents who crave this social interaction as part of their development. Lucky to get an appointment moved up to today thanks to cancellations and being available at the right time, so I now have my second vaccination too! Kids have their first, and my wife in health care has her double dose. Good day for me!

Puck was already in the net. His intent was not to play the puck but hit the player, and hit him hard. Not sure there is much question about that.

The hit was not high, he did not throw an elbow, he went through the body with the check, Evans was low and Scheifele is bigger, AND NONE OF THAT MATTERS. You can’t line up a player from the blue line and take that kind of run at him head on. The intent was not to play the puck or stop the goal, it was to punish him and he was out cold before he hit the ice.Then smacking his head on the ice makes it worse. Given Scheifele’s lack of history, and it being the playoffs where suspensions get cut in half, I could see one game, maybe 2 (think 2 is appropriate because it would be 4 in the regular season), but the degree of injury and the state of the series will dictate some of that. This is where being a goon actually might have mitigated a suspension, because George Parros likes to go soft on repeat offenders and ding first timers who do things out of character. Beyond the injury itself, what might prove to be bad is that, had the Jets just lost they could shrug and say they played awful and still were right in it late. Now Scheifele has given the Habs all the motivation they need to keep their foot on the gas and sucked a ton of energy from the Jets going forward. I honestly would still have picked the Jets to win the series even with this loss, but after that hit I really think that could spell the Jets doom.

Will totally depend on how bad Evans is hurt. That’s the NHL way. You can’t take a run at someone like that. If he is trying to stop the goal, needs to play the stick. And the fact he got knocked out warrants the major. And furthermore, Scheifele was visibly irked all night and arguing with the refs. All that adds up to a no-brainer call.

At least the top line is generating zone time and chances.

Second period thoughts: Someone forgot to freeze the pucks before the game. Lots of bouncing passes Not sure what game Dubois sees out there. Trying creative passes but off the mark on pretty much all of them Montreal pounding our defence high along the boards at the blue line. More odd man rushes in that period than in the entire series against Edmonton All the great sticks the Jets had in the first round have abandoned them tonight Good news is that Montrreal’s game plan is get up by 2 and then play dump it out for a full period, and Toronto showed that they can be exploited with that prevent defence style. Hellebuyck found his game that period and kept us in it.

First period thoughts: Montreal likely scouted back door plays Jets power play looked really good, just could not bury one Hellebuyck not looking great yet, flopping on the 3rd goal and not covering the puck when he could/should Wonder if DeMelo got cut by a skate, panel pondering a high ankle. Paging Jordie Benn Wonder if Stastny pulled something due to lack of game play Maurice said the first 10 minutes would not look like the rest of the game. We can only hope Reminded that in 2018 we came off the 7 game win over the Preds and dominated the rested Knights 4-1 in game 1. After that they found their legs, got some great goaltending, and rolled over us. Patience will be my mantra tonight. Especially because all the analytics fans are waiting to label the team a fraud.

And DeMelo is gone for the night. So much for getting healthy with 8 days off.

Based on respective winning percentages, this is the 3rd biggest upset ever in the big 3 sports (football doesn’t count) for a favoured team blowing a 3-1 series lead in a 7 game series. Toronto was .161 percentage points better than Montreal. The only bigger gap on hockey was when the 2010 Canadiens came back from down 1-3 to beat the President’s Trophy winning and perennial 3-1 chokers Washington, who were .201 better in winning percentage. In basketball, in 1995 Houston was .147 worse than Phoenix and trailed 3-1 before storming back to win, and even worse was Golden State and their best ever regular season being .195 better and up 3-1 on the Cavaliers in the NBA Final in 2016 before LeBron took over and finally won a title for Cleveland. In baseball, because of limited playoff spots, no such extreme gaps in winning percentage exist, but the 1985 Royals twice came back from 3-1 down both in the ALCS against the Blue Jays, who were .053 better, and then St. Louis, who were .061 better, for the biggest upsets ever in that situation in baseball.

So my brother lives in Toronto but is still a Jets fan. He tells me that Leafs’ fans hate the Nylander contract and think he should have been let go so they could build around M and M. Yet he showed up in the playoffs, and the Rocket Richard winner had one goal, one more than Marner did. And the Joe Thornton channels Eay Boutique moment never happened. Watching Carey Price in the post game. He seems bored. He is the biggest threat to the Jets in round 2.

Wonder if there will be any blowback on Soupy Campbell. That opening goal was pretty weak by modern standards. Five hole should be closed.