TrueBlue4ever

Anyone who does the math has to know that the league is not going ahead this year, and that has been the case for weeks. Let's say that the CFL magically resolved its issues today and announced tomorrow a full plan to start up, and that plan actually was set in motion tomorrow as well. Players would need to come up from the USA, so getting flights would take some time, but let's be nice and say that gets done by Friday, August 14. They all arrive in Winnipeg and are put into the mandatory 14 day quarantine, which gets us to August 28. They also need to go through multiple COVID tests during that time. As a matter of comparison, the NFL is spending $75 million on COVID testing alone as part of their new season. so let's charitably say that 1/4 of the teams means 1/4 of the cost, so $19 million for testing alone. Then assuming no foul-ups or delays because of positive tests, and physicals take place and we are into the start of training camp and two-a-days by Monday or Tuesday. So start of September. Minimum time frame for that is 2 weeks, and 2 pre-season games will be needed because with 9 teams, you can't just have one because of imbalance. So now we are likely at the start of October for the start of the season. To play a 6 game schedule will take minimum 7 weeks of actual time given the required byes, so regular season ends November 17 and Grey Cup goes December 8. So if we start tomorrow with this process, we are already into December and we are definitely NOT starting tomorrow, and we are NOT starting the moment the plan gets announced, so best case scenario I say we are talking about a Christmas Grey Cup. That is just the calendar issue. Aside from the COVID testing, there is massive hotel and meal expenditures for the league to pick up for 9 teams, and this is a league that relies more than most others on gate revenue and not just predominantly TV money like the big 4, and not matter how the plan goes ahead there will be zero fans this year based on precedent from all other sports, and I don't see that changing by December. The real question here is the dreaded one - does the CFL come back at all? One year off actually saves them more money then trying to squeeze in a COVID cost-prohibitive season, but the teams are still taking a bath. And when the Roughriders are losing money last year in a normal year, and are considered one of the strongest franchises out there financially, then it is time to consider overhauling the entire business model or scrapping the league in its current form, sorry to say.

Speed, your argument in defence of Miller seems to be a bit of a moving target, so let's get back to your original point that people disagree with. You think Miller will be less hostile than Ambrosie in player negotiations. The counter-point is that he won't be because his personality is one of "my way or the highway". You then shift and say if he was hard to work for, people would have quit on him. That misses the point. In CBA negotiations, the players and their association are not working for him, they are working with him at best, or negotiating against him if spun in a more negative way. You then agree that he is a hard ass and control freak, which is what people were saying in the first place, but your argument shifts from "he'd be a better commish because he is less confrontational" to "his confrontational style worked for the Bombers because they won", which is another topic altogether. So if you think that style will work, OK, but that was not your point. You just want another reason to slag on Ambrosie IMO and use Miller as a better alternative (he may be) but your reasoning that he will be more conciliatory in negotiations seems way off if you want to make that the key point of your argument that he will be better.

So less than impressive qualifying round picks from me, so let's try again. Vegas over Chicago - trusting the experts that the Knights are as good as advertised, not really following them much myself Colorado over Arizona - Coyotes were outplayed by Nashville but snuck through, Avs are a beast and will not have as much trouble scoring Calgary over Dallas - won't believe in the Stars until they give me a reason to, they were slumping badly before the break and did not really pick it up upon resumption, Calgary looks built for the playoffs if Talbot remains hot St. Louis over Vancouver - really a coin flip here, but I'm going on Stanley Cup pedigree here and ignoring each team's respective first round showing. Montreal over Philadelphia - if the Flyers had not gotten top seed I'd feel more comfortable picking this upset, but despite their great showing in round robin, Carey Price was more than brilliant in upsetting the Pens, who I think are better than the Flyers. Guess I should listen to those who bought into the Price magic, goaltending can carry you all the way in the playoffs, and maybe he is getting into that groove. Philly the better team, but the best player is in bleu, blanc, et rouge. Tampa Bay over Columbus - Even without Hedman and Stamkos, Tampa has something to prove and will be more resiliant, and bad Torts will sulk after losses and the Jackets will not fluke out a comeback win or survive a big collapse like against the withered Leafs. NY Islanders over Washington - In Trotz we trust Carolina over Boston - have no clue what to make of either team here. Couldn't even name 5 Canes players if I tried, and Boston can't be so good in the regular season and then fold so badly after the hiatus, but there has to be some narrative to continue to discredit this year's playoff format, so add the President's Trophy winners losing the #1 seed and then getting bounced to the list of complaints of "Pens should have got a bye, Canadiens should not have qualified, 5 game series is too short, double lottery is stupid, etc. etc."

"Small" is probably not the right word to use. Short, maybe, but not small.

On to Round 2 (Round 1? I don't know what to call this season any more) (1) Las Vegas vs. (12) Chicago (2) Colorado vs. (11) Arizona (3) Dallas vs. (8) Calgary (4) St. Louis vs. (7) Vancouver (1) Philadelphia vs. (12) Montreal (2) Tampa Bay vs. (9) Columbus (3) Washington vs. (7) NY Islanders (4) Boston vs. (6) Carolina

Trump’s talk of delaying an election opened up the “who will be President off January 21?” speculation. Here is an interesting breakdown of the possible scenarios. https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1289605913117110273?s=20

Exhausting. Depressing. Utterly revolting. Disillusioned. But with hope that the bad things will go away and karma will take care of those who dragged the world down.Pretty much summed in this one image:

The people whose minds and attitudes this is an attempt to change are going to be too entrenched in their thinking and ignorant to see the sarcasm and will just take it as a sincere post backing their viewpoint.

Why didn't he just take hydroxychloroquine and cure himself? That's right, I have zero sympathy for a person's death. In these circumstances.

As for the picks: Tampa, Philly, Boston, Washington in that order Pit over Mtl (don’t get the Carey Price love from those who see this upset as a given) NYR over Carolina (gut over head here) NYI over Fla (I want to believe in the Panthers, but I wouldn’t bet against Barry Trotz) Columbus over Toronto (more Tortorella playoff magic) Colorado, St. Louis, Vegas, Dallas in that order (with the top 2 possibly switching and the bottom 2 possibly switching, but a good sized gap in play between 2 and 3) Oilers over Hawks (young guns beat out too old guns) Nashville over Arizona (boy do I want the ‘Yotes to pull of the upset, and if they show up they can take the wasting-their-talent-with-no-desire Preds, but I think they just won’t show up) Vancouver over Minny (Wild used to be a good to very good team that never showed up come the playoffs, now they are a less good team that needs to re-build against the hot newcomer) Jets over Flames (more top end talent up front, and no contest in net)

I will say we get through the whole playoffs if we get through the the play-in round. If this collapses it will collapse early, like MLB.

And?

Well, time to make our "second season" predictions. Pick the winners of the play-in round (and number of games if you want), and also rank the "top 4 bracket" results. EAST Boston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Philadelphia (rank 1 to 4) Pittsburgh vs. Montreal Carolina vs. NY Rangers NY Islanders vs. Florida Toronto vs. Columbus WEST St. Louis, Colorado, Las Vegas, Dallas (rank 1 to 4) Edmonton vs. Chicago Nashville vs. Arizona Vancouver vs. Minnesota Calgary vs. Winnipeg

Nah, this is inaccurate. I'm sure there are towns in the USA that are more disgusting than Harrison. And that is very telling given this display of filth.

Look, we are living in very charged times, where having a different political stance or opposing opinion makes you the enemy, and paints you as someone of poor moral character. I personally feel we need to rise above that. I think someone once posted here "your opinion is bad and you should feel bad". I have no issue with the first half of that statement, but it doesn't make the second half of that statement right. If you have a position that you know will enflame things, start by asking why it is contentious, and then ask why you want to post it. If the first answer is "it is contentious because it runs counter to everything else I have heard, and no one takes my side" then reassess if you are incorrect for having that opinion in the face of such overwhelming counterintelligence and maybe need to change your stance, or if others are missing something that you can provide. If the answer to the second question is "I want to post to poke the bear and get my opponents all triggered", then save your breath. But if you have a point to make, and feel you can validate your position with an articulate argument, and are prepared to take on those who challenge that opinion in a respectful manner (that's you being respectful - you can't control others' behaviour, so why worry about it?) then please go ahead and make it. If the response is "that's a stupid thought" then engage politely and ask the other side to defend their position as you would defend yours. If the response is "YOU are stupid" then shrug it off and re-direct to the issue at hand, not the content of your character. Don't take the bait and get into a name-calling contest, and don't bother getting into the "well if you attack me instead of my argument, you clearly have no defence" because that will be readily apparent to all, and only drags you down to their level of personal character assassination and gets off topic. We all need a thicker skin on internet chat boards, and only we individually can choose how to respond to what someone says about our point or our personal traits. Try to foster the former and tune out the latter. And if you cannot divorce the two, maybe this is not the forum for you. But if you feel personally attacked and still want to be involved in this message board, just ask the mods to take a look at the comments coming your way and let them police the site if they feel it needs policing.

Twitter trending that Stephen Miller’s grandmother died of COVID, Miller’s uncle blames the Trump administration, and the White House Says the report is false (She died of natural causes, not COVID) despite the death certificate saying it was COVID. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/07/stephen-millers-grandmother-died-of-covid-19-her-son-blames-the-trump-administration/

Any time the first offer is snapped up without a back and forth negotiation, it's one of two things: 1) the buyer is desperate, shows their hand that they are desperate and is overpaying, or 2) the seller has undervalued their product and/or shown their ignorance of the market demand, and showed their hand by making the first offer without assessing either of those factors. Any good negotiation will avoid these two pitfalls, and often a low ball/high ball back and forth will offer some insight into some of the unknown questions like "How desperate is the other side/who else is my competition/what is my alternative to buying or selling?". The players are in the same time crunch as the owners, and are basically saying they deserve more than 1/3 their normal pay for playing only 1/3 the normal season. Where's the blowback for their BS? Or is it just your pre-set hatred of Ambrosie that makes this (like everything) all his fault, always?

That's not anybody's way. Have you ever negotiated a contract with someone? It doesn't work like a Mr. Burns bet on softball: Rich Man: Would you care to bet a million dollars. Mr. Burns: Oh, if we're going to bet, why not make it interesting? Rich Man: What, a million dollars isn't interesting to you? Mr. Burns: Oh, did you say a million? I'm sorry, my mind was elsewhere. I thought you'd start with a small amount, then we'd slowly bait each other, and . . . well, you know how it goes. Yes, certainly, a million will be fine.

Maybe not (if I can speak for him), but in the same breath he also shorted McManus' time in BC, and Dunigan's time in Toronto, as well as the greatest player of all time, Doug Flutie, going from BC to Calgary to Toronto, so his point about following the money stands. And no one can argue that Flutie wasn't the elite of the elite, so even his greatness did not result in his team ponying up the cash to keep him, so degrading Allen on that basis does not really stand as absolute proof as bearpants would suggest.

Post pattern

Hope Chevy is prepping now for Hellebuyck’s next contract. Even at 4 years away, that will be some cap hit if he re-ups.

Interesting article on the psychology of the mask debate and why each side may be so entrenched. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/role-cognitive-dissonance-pandemic/614074/?fbclid=IwAR1_6eFdSBC4yMfMhKd-3ZK9t97-sx68Zq2u-EQmJrxa04f8dxe4cMKXG2U

So 2 days of over 900 deaths and they hit 140,000 today, a day earlier than my last projection. I guess it’s not as under control as suggested.

Laine? Offer DeMelo a new deal? Extend Pionk?

Some raw data to chew on, courtesy of worldometers.com: USA cases - Jan. 21 - first case Apr. 10 - 500,000 (80 days) Apr. 27 - 1,000,000 (17 days) (97 days for first 1,000,000) May 16 - 1,500,000 (19 days) Jun. 7 - 2,000,000 (22 days) (41 days for next 1,000,000) Jun 25 - 2,500,000 (18 days) Jul. 6 - 3,000,000 (11 days) (29 days for next 1,000,000) Jul. 14 - 3,500,000 (8 days) (on pace for 16 days for next 1,000,000 based on the last 7 days average) USA deaths - Feb. 29 - first death Apr. 4 - 10,000 (35 days) Apr. 9 - 20,000 (5 days) Apr. 14 - 30,000 (5 days) Apr. 18 - 40,000 (4 days) Apr. 23 - 50,000 (5 days) Apr. 28 - 60,000 (5 days) May 4 - 70,000 (6 days) May 8 - 80,000 (4 days) May 15 - 90,000 (7 days) May 23 - 100,000 (8 days) Jun. 2 - 110,000 (10 days) Jun. 13 - 120,000 (11 days) Jun. 30 - 130,000 (17 days) Jul. 13 end of day - 138,247 (based on the last 7 day average of 750 cases per day, will hit 140,000 Jul. 16 or 16 days later; based on last 2 day average of 430 cases per day, will hit it Jul. 17) Deaths always lag behind cases. Waiting to see if death rate will spike due to capacity in ICUs as is being reported in many states, or if treatments have improved. But some commenters who said it looked like the US just up and quit trying to protect against the virus as July hit may be on to something.