US Politics

[The Unknown Poster]

Just now, Jacquie said:

Timothy Snyder isn't "the left". He is world renowned historian who specializes in Eastern European history and has written books on subjects like the Cold War, Hitler and Stalin which have all won numerous awards. If he sees parallels between Trump and Hitler it would be dumb, IMO, to ignore it. Trump has already used a number of fascist tactics to attack anyone who disagrees or criticizes him.

 

He says in that linked story that its highly unlikely.  He just observed instances of similarities.  Any other conclusion from that is fear-mongering.  Trump is already seen as a nut by many of his own party.  They wouldnt let it happen. 

[johnzo]

I'm trying to imagine how such a coup would work.  The United States is a huge patchwork of political systems and local authorities.  Any disruption at the federal level would result in local chaos and immediate state secession movements.  Hundreds and thousands of people in authority would denounce such a move and any one of them could become the inspirational leader for a counter-coup movement. A lot of those people will be Republican senators and congressfolk who are suddenly sidelined by the executive.  There is no possible way that Trump could decapitate his opposition quickly and decisively enough to smoothly take ultimate control. Speed really matters in a coup, it has to be concluded quickly or it fizzles (like we saw in Turkey last year) or becomes a civil war.

The US military is vast and amazing, but is strictly forbidden by law to operate on US soil.  Of course, a coup would be extralegal, but posse comitatus is baked pretty hard into the military.  You could definitely not expect 100% cooperation from regular troops, many of whom are already deployed overseas, and all of whom take oaths to the Constitution, not to the president.

Each state also has a national guard, so state governors have guns and troops too -- less sophisticated, but they are trained formations.  Oftentimes these guys are under federal control, lots of them were deployed to Iraq. In a real bad civil war type situation, not sure how these guys line up.

From a law enforcement standpoint ... as big as the US federal government is, to do any LE on a regional level, they need local cooperation -- this is why the sanctuary city thing is such a big deal, it's denying the federal government a lot of resources. So the localities most strongly opposed to Trump, where he would need boots on the ground, are already standing in opposition to him.  Certainly lots of local cops are sympathetic to Trump -- he is popular with law enforcement largely because Sessions has indicated he's really not interested in prosecuting federal civil rights cases -- but their command-and-control are not sympathetic to him and any pro-Trump LE troops would need to self-organize.

The Border Patrol is probably the best stormtrooper unit that Trump has to work with; they answer directly to the executive, they are largely unaccountable within the US border zone (100 miles from any border, including sea coasts) and they are skilled at mass incarceration.  They're very sympathetic to Trump and operate everywhere that he is likely to face open resistance.   There's just 20,000 of them, though, so they're not super huge compared to the size of the country.

There'd be spontaneous militia units popping up all over, yahoos with trucks and guns. Dunno if they could evolve a command-and-control structure that would make them useful for anything other than random terrorization.

I think the more feasible scenario is a Hitler / Mussolini / Palpatine deal: the federal legislators vote themselves out of a job and hand ultimate power to the administration, and the supreme court signs off on it.  This doesn't feel feasible at all.  The Trump personality cult is pretty shallow, the guy can't even staff his own White House with loyal people, and DC is full of powerful and venal shits who will start kicking unless their nest is well-feathered. 

So I'm not super worried about this, there's lots of damage Trump can do without dismantling constitutional government wholesale.  The worst thing he can do here, I think, is de-legitimize the rule of law enough so that more people start pining for a real baller dictator, one with the charisma to motivate a really broad base of support across the military, political, media, and religious worlds.  Trump doesn't seem up to that.

Edited May 3, 2017 by johnzo

[Atomic]

IF Trump lasts for the next 4 years, he is going to be so ******* exhausted and desperate to leave the White House that there is no way this happens.  Forget a coup, the man isn't even going to run for a second term.

Besides that, I think "democracy" is something almost all Americans can agree on, even those in the so-called alt-right.  The only people I've ever seen advocate for a non-democratic society are far-left anarcho-communists/socialists and they are so far removed from reality that their opinion really doesn't matter.

Edited May 3, 2017 by Atomic

[johnzo]

The anti-democratic right is a real thing in the USA. You've got your old school Christian Sharia dominionists ... national-level politicos like Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mike Pence pussyfoot with those guys. Then you've got your new school neo-reactionaries like Moldbug, Peter Thiel and others. Bannon runs in Moldbug's circles too.  Thiel lays it out pretty clearly in "Education of a Libertarian," you can google that if you want to know how a douchebag technocrat billionaire thinks society ought to run.

The left-wing antidemocrats I've met are the familiar kind of jokey anarcho-socialists. The right wing ones have power and money and are way scarier.

Edited May 3, 2017 by johnzo

[Mark F]

18 hours ago, johnzo said:

The anti-democratic right is a real thing in the USA.

unrelated but since you live nearby  Oregon, what do you think of this? I know that driving through cities and towns in the states of Washington and Oregon I was struck by the large number of people on the street, and the amount of shabby housing, and people who were poorly dressed, and looked beaten down. somewhat worse, and more widespread than the worst of wpg.

Stayed at a motel six in Portland, a trash collecting guy was basically living in their parking lot, there was a drug dealer doing business right on the street by the motel, and he came in and did some money transaction with the front desk staff. (also may have gotten bed bugs or fleas at said motel ... but it was cheap!)

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/06/new_drug_report_paints_a_less-.html

Edited May 4, 2017 by Mark F

[The Unknown Poster]

20 hours ago, johnzo said:

I'm trying to imagine how such a coup would work.  The United States is a huge patchwork of political systems and local authorities.  Any disruption at the federal level would result in local chaos and immediate state secession movements.  Hundreds and thousands of people in authority would denounce such a move and any one of them could become the inspirational leader for a counter-coup movement. A lot of those people will be Republican senators and congressfolk who are suddenly sidelined by the executive.  There is no possible way that Trump could decapitate his opposition quickly and decisively enough to smoothly take ultimate control. Speed really matters in a coup, it has to be concluded quickly or it fizzles (like we saw in Turkey last year) or becomes a civil war.

The US military is vast and amazing, but is strictly forbidden by law to operate on US soil.  Of course, a coup would be extralegal, but posse comitatus is baked pretty hard into the military.  You could definitely not expect 100% cooperation from regular troops, many of whom are already deployed overseas, and all of whom take oaths to the Constitution, not to the president.

Each state also has a national guard, so state governors have guns and troops too -- less sophisticated, but they are trained formations.  Oftentimes these guys are under federal control, lots of them were deployed to Iraq. In a real bad civil war type situation, not sure how these guys line up.

From a law enforcement standpoint ... as big as the US federal government is, to do any LE on a regional level, they need local cooperation -- this is why the sanctuary city thing is such a big deal, it's denying the federal government a lot of resources. So the localities most strongly opposed to Trump, where he would need boots on the ground, are already standing in opposition to him.  Certainly lots of local cops are sympathetic to Trump -- he is popular with law enforcement largely because Sessions has indicated he's really not interested in prosecuting federal civil rights cases -- but their command-and-control are not sympathetic to him and any pro-Trump LE troops would need to self-organize.

The Border Patrol is probably the best stormtrooper unit that Trump has to work with; they answer directly to the executive, they are largely unaccountable within the US border zone (100 miles from any border, including sea coasts) and they are skilled at mass incarceration.  They're very sympathetic to Trump and operate everywhere that he is likely to face open resistance.   There's just 20,000 of them, though, so they're not super huge compared to the size of the country.

There'd be spontaneous militia units popping up all over, yahoos with trucks and guns. Dunno if they could evolve a command-and-control structure that would make them useful for anything other than random terrorization.

I think the more feasible scenario is a Hitler / Mussolini / Palpatine deal: the federal legislators vote themselves out of a job and hand ultimate power to the administration, and the supreme court signs off on it.  This doesn't feel feasible at all.  The Trump personality cult is pretty shallow, the guy can't even staff his own White House with loyal people, and DC is full of powerful and venal shits who will start kicking unless their nest is well-feathered. 

So I'm not super worried about this, there's lots of damage Trump can do without dismantling constitutional government wholesale.  The worst thing he can do here, I think, is de-legitimize the rule of law enough so that more people start pining for a real baller dictator, one with the charisma to motivate a really broad base of support across the military, political, media, and religious worlds.  Trump doesn't seem up to that.

Yeah, Trump would need support from Congress to basically strip them of power.  Even if he could find a way to suspend their rights, they wouldnt go quietly.  Then he needs support from his VP and Cabinet.  If half his cabinet doesnt like it, they elevate Pence who, despite his faults, is not seen as nuts.  And if Trump thinks his Generals will cooperate, well, he needs them all and he needs cooperation down the chain.  And as you said, these officers dont work for the President, they work for Constitution.

If Trump was wildly popular, riding a wave of nationalistic pride and popularity he'd have more power to strip away powers and centralize things.  But he's very unpopular even among the Republicans.  His own VP was ready to jump over the "grab her" stuff.

Trump would never win a coup attempt politically, militarily or locally.

[The Unknown Poster]

19 hours ago, johnzo said:

The anti-democratic right is a real thing in the USA. You've got your old school Christian Sharia dominionists ... national-level politicos like Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mike Pence pussyfoot with those guys. Then you've got your new school neo-reactionaries like Moldbug, Peter Thiel and others. Bannon runs in Moldbug's circles too.  Thiel lays it out pretty clearly in "Education of a Libertarian," you can google that if you want to know how a douchebag technocrat billionaire thinks society ought to run.

The left-wing antidemocrats I've met are the familiar kind of jokey anarcho-socialists. The right wing ones have power and money and are way scarier.

For sure, Bannon would love to seize power.  But just wouldnt happen.  Its the one thing most Americans wouldnt stand for.

Its fun to read about and imagine and would make for a terrific film or TV Series (House of Cards style). 

[do or die]

Better pray that Bannon or any of his acolytes never seize power. 

Spent two days posting on Breitbart.   Like entering a parallel universe, albeit a white supremacist one.   Unbelievably xenophobic, racist and antisemitic.   For simply asking some questions...... within several hours I was called the following:

Libtard (a Breitbart and Fox staple)

ISIS Porn Star (very wrong on both counts)

Snowflake   (some sort of blanket description of all liberals, I think)

Muslim loving Jew  (still trying to figure that one out)

Obamalover (self explanatory, I suppose)

Commie Canadian  (thought only administrators could see where I post from)

Did not include the plethora of the real unprintable comments and insults, that I would not simply be able to post on this site.   Funny thing is, that in the end, only one person had their account shut down - Myself....for "trolling"!!   Never mind all those strident insults and threats falling on my head.  Whatever...

Afterwards, took a hot shower and a cold gin.....and felt much better.

 

 

[SpeedFlex27]

The Republican Congress killed Obamacare. Not because it was the best thing for Americans but because it didn't serve private insurers well. American politicians don't care about the constituents they claim to serve. But they do care about who funds their campaigns. Or they'd have gone to a universal one payer health care system like ours decades ago. Now insurers can charge older Americans more & insure less people, especially those with pre existing conditions. A very dark day for a lot of Americans. We should be thankful for our Canadian health care system. Warts & all,

[SpeedFlex27]

I have had 4 major reconstructive foot surgeries due to arthritis on both my feet since 2012. I also have arthritis in both knees & will need both my knees replaced. Some of it is due to injuries I received years ago (knees) but my feet were always fine until a decade ago when I began to suffer horrible pain & my feet actually began to deform & become crooked. Walking becamse painful. Every step excruciating. Arthritis like this runs in my family. My father had the same problems I've had with his feet yet my brother's feet are fine so it's the luck of the draw. In the US, because I have pre existing conditions I would not have coverage for any surgery relating to my feet & knees. I also had a bone infection after my last foot surgery in July 2015 & was off work for 18 months because of it. The surgeries & complications as well as ongoing treatment due to infection would have cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars in the US. I probably would have lost my left leg because of the infection. Or perhaps even died. Yet, for all the care I received, after I left the hospital as well as the infectious disease centre I paid no bills. I didn't have to sell my car, house or go into bankruptcy to be treated. The Americans can have their private co-pay health care system... Phooey.

Edited May 5, 2017 by SpeedFlex27

[Jacquie]

3 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

The Republican Congress killed Obamacare. Not because it was the best thing for Americans but because it didn't serve private insurers well. American politicians don't care about the constituents they claim to serve. But they do care about who funds their campaigns. Or they'd have gone to a universal one payer health care system like ours decades ago. Now insurers can charge older Americans more & insure less people, especially those with pre existing conditions. A very dark day for a lot of Americans. We should be thankful for our Canadian health care system. Warts & all,

It's not over yet. The House of Representatives passed it but it hasn't gone to the Senate for a vote yet. 

I totally agree with your last two sentences. 

Edited May 5, 2017 by Jacquie

[SpeedFlex27]

Read on CNN (fake news)* website that the Republicans rammed the AHC through Congress just to pass the bill. They felt it was better to pass a flawed bill that will negatively affect 44 million people than not pass anything at all. That's how much the Republicans care about the people they claim to represent. Better to not have egg on their faces than make sure people have health care coverage. Pretty shameful. Hopefully, in 2018 these same people they hurt will rise up & throw them out.

*Yeah right

[The Unknown Poster]

4 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Read on CNN (fake news)* website that the Republicans rammed the AHC through Congress just to pass the bill. They felt it was better to pass a flawed bill that will negatively affect 44 million people than not pass anything at all. That's how much the Republicans care about the people they claim to represent. Better to not have egg on their faces than make sure people have health care coverage. Pretty shameful. Hopefully, in 2018 these same people they hurt will rise up & throw them out.

*Yeah right

I think Trump would have allowed the bill to pass even if it meant providing health care to aliens from Mars as long as he could say he "won" and that he "beat Obamacare".  It was all about the "win"

[johnzo]

22 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

I think Trump would have allowed the bill to pass even if it meant providing health care to aliens from Mars as long as he could say he "won" and that he "beat Obamacare".  It was all about the "win"

Yeah, there's something to this .... but the bill also represents a huge real actual victory.

Obamacare -- both the medicaid expansion and the individual policy subsidies -- is largely financed by extra taxes on investment income. This bill rolls back a lot (if not all) of those taxes.

Despite the name, its goal is not to increase access to health care, create better health outcomes, create a more efficient health care system, anything like that.  It's just a tax cut.

Edited May 5, 2017 by johnzo

[HardCoreBlue]

1 minute ago, johnzo said:

Yeah, there's something to this .... but the bill also represents a huge real actual victory.

Obamacare -- both the medicaid expansion and the individual policy subsidies -- is largely financed by extra taxes on investment income. This bill rolls back a lot (if not all) of those taxes.

Despite the name, its goal is not to increase access to health care, create better health outcomes, anything like that.  It's just a tax cut.

I'm really beginning to dislike human beings.

[Mark F]

Edited May 5, 2017 by Mark F

[Goalie]

The Republicons are very much reminiscent of a college style fraternity. 

They are grown men tho so they are more pathetic than college kids 

[SpeedFlex27]

Here is a list of pre existing conditions not covered. It's not the full list either. Pretty shameful. As Trump's base of aging white men & women get screwed, maybe they'll wake up & see the kind of person they elected to the White House along with the trained Republican seals clapping their fins behind him.

http://www.ajc.com/news/local/these-pre-existing-conditions-could-cost-you-big-bucks-under-new-health-care-bill/THHXBB8yUMSXV8ZugZT6FK/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2017 by SpeedFlex27

[Mark F]

Don't fool yourself. There are lots of politicians in Canada that would destroy our healthcare system if they thought they could get away with it.

They would be supported by the  people that have a ton of  money who hate the fact that they have no better health care than people that are poor. Notwithstanding the fact that they can go and buy whatever they want in the States, or Mexico, or Costa Rica, if they want to.

I knew a guy who was a newpaper business columnist for a big paper.

He told me that he was amazed at the level of hatred that some politicians/important business people have for our health care system.

And I'll give Harper credit for the fact that he left it alone.

Edited May 6, 2017 by Mark F

[The Unknown Poster]

Hmmmmm

 

[rebusrankin]

Just for fun on the healthcare question, what if we adopted a mixed private/public system ala Australia/UK/France/Germany etc?

[kelownabomberfan]

7 hours ago, Mark F said:

Don't fool yourself. There are lots of politicians in Canada that would destroy our healthcare system if they thought they could get away with it.

They would be supported by the  people that have a ton of  money who hate the fact that they have no better health care than people that are poor. Notwithstanding the fact that they can go and buy whatever they want in the States, or Mexico, or Costa Rica, if they want to.

I knew a guy who was a newpaper business columnist for a big paper.

He told me that he was amazed at the level of hatred that some politicians/important business people have for our health care system.

And I'll give Harper credit for the fact that he left it alone.

All that being said, I know a few doctors and they say there's lot that could be fixed with our current system, if the political will was there to do it.  Unfortunately, anybody who even mentions changing our current system is pilloried immediately, and so it's just politically safer to do nothing, and just keep the spending taps open.  I lived in Australia for a year, and I definitely think their private/public hybrid system is better than ours, in terms of wait times and quality.  But that's just my observation.  People there seem pretty happy with their system.

[SpeedFlex27]

Take it from someone who's been there. Our system is pretty good to excellent. Wait times are an issue but once you're in the care is exceptional.

[Mark H.]

2 hours ago, kelownabomberfan said:

All that being said, I know a few doctors and they say there's lot that could be fixed with our current system, if the political will was there to do it.  Unfortunately, anybody who even mentions changing our current system is pilloried immediately, and so it's just politically safer to do nothing, and just keep the spending taps open.  I lived in Australia for a year, and I definitely think their private/public hybrid system is better than ours, in terms of wait times and quality.  But that's just my observation.  People there seem pretty happy with their system.

I think health care has seen plenty of cuts over the past two decades. For example, provincial health budgets were cut in the 90's as a consequence of Chretien / Martin slashing federal transfer payments. Even in Manitoba under the NDP, nurses had to take a wage freeze a few years ago.

[Jacquie]