US Politics

[Zontar]

5 minutes ago, do or die said:

Painting the Democrats as wide eyed leftists or crazed socialists just got much harder for the GOP.

Wait and see who the running mate is first. The most consequential choice ever given Biden.

[Wideleft]

10 hours ago, wanna-b-fanboy said:

The establishment pulled it off. 

Looks like 4 more years of trump. awesome. 

I've been reading about negative partisanship lately which basically reasons that people tend to vote against people rather than for people.  Studies began in earnest in the 80's in countries with multiple political parties so these parties could leverage hate/disagreement in order to win.  I totally plead guilty as a voter to this as I am ABC provincially and federally. 

The U.S. Republican party was really first to the gate to use this in a two-party system, which explains why Republican voters always seem so angry.

If dislike or hate is actually THE motivating factor in the upcoming election, I think Biden is going to do just fine.

[Zontar]

9 minutes ago, Wideleft said:

I've been reading about negative partisanship lately which basically reasons that people tend to vote against people rather than for people.  Studies began in earnest in the 80's in countries with multiple political parties so these parties could leverage hate/disagreement in order to win.  I totally plead guilty as a voter to this as I am ABC provincially and federally. 

The U.S. Republican party was really first to the gate to use this in a two-party system, which explains why Republican voters always seem so angry.

If dislike or hate is actually THE motivating factor in the upcoming election, I think Biden is going to do just fine.

Except Trump haters don't see it as negative at all or even calling it "hate" They think it's perfectly righteous and justified but refuse to concede the same notion to how their opponents  think and vote.

[The Unknown Poster]

17 minutes ago, Zontar said:

Except Trump haters don't see it as negative at all or even calling it "hate" They think it's perfectly righteous and justified but refuse to concede the same notion to how their opponents  think and vote.

When you're voting against a racist, serial sexual abuser, dangerous moron criminal, its actually quite reasonable to vote against that.

Generally, the vocal minority gets the coverage and it works on both sides.  But there are plenty of people who vote *for* the party/person that most aligns with their views

[do or die]

If Trump had any redeeming qualities at all......I would merely dislike him

[Wideleft]

1 hour ago, Wideleft said:

I've been reading about negative partisanship lately which basically reasons that people tend to vote against people rather than for people.  Studies began in earnest in the 80's in countries with multiple political parties so these parties could leverage hate/disagreement in order to win.  I totally plead guilty as a voter to this as I am ABC provincially and federally. 

The U.S. Republican party was really first to the gate to use this in a two-party system, which explains why Republican voters always seem so angry.

If dislike or hate is actually THE motivating factor in the upcoming election, I think Biden is going to do just fine.

With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election

by Rachel Bitecofer

In July of 2018, my innovative forecasting model raised eyebrows by predicting some four months before the midterm election that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives. In hindsight, that may not seem such a bold prediction, but when my forecast was released, election Twitter was still having a robust debate as to whether the Blue Wave would be large enough for Democrats to pick up the 23 seats they needed to take control of the House of Representatives and return the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi.

Based on its 2018 performance, my model, and the theory that structures it, seem well poised to tackle the 2020 presidential election – 16 months out. I’ll serve up that result below, but first let’s set the table by reviewing my model’s 2018 forecasting success.

Not only did I predict that they would gain nearly double the seats they needed, but I also identified a specific list of Republican seats Democrats would flip, including some, such as Virginia CD7, that were listed as “Lean Republican” by the majority of race raters at the time. At a time when other analysts coded even the most competitive House races for Democrats as Lean or Tilt Democrat, I identified 13 Republican-held districts as “Will Flips,” 12 as “Likely to Flip,” and 6 as “Lean Democrat.” I also identified a large list of “Toss Ups,” from which I would later identify the remaining “flippers.” In addition, I identified some “long-shot toss-up” districts that could be viable flips under some turnout scenarios. Of the original 25 districts I identified as definitely or highly likely to flip, all but one, Colorado CD3, did so, possibly because the party failed to invest in their nominee there.

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https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

[17to85]

2 hours ago, do or die said:

Painting the Democrats as wide eyed leftists or crazed socialists just got much harder for the GOP.

Nah, they've been working hard to make sure people associate democrat and socialist for a long time.

[17to85]

2 hours ago, Zontar said:

Except Trump haters don't see it as negative at all or even calling it "hate" They think it's perfectly righteous and justified but refuse to concede the same notion to how their opponents  think and vote.

People only hate Trump because his policies are 100% awful. He is the bad combination of a raging narcissistic ******* without being a good president. 

[Zontar]

Bernie announcement at 1. Will he run as third party or quit ?

[The Unknown Poster]

15 minutes ago, Zontar said:

Bernie announcement at 1. Will he run as third party or quit ?

You can hope he runs as a 3rd party but that would be massive wishful thinking on your part.  Bernie is a prick, but not big a prick.  I assume he isnt dropping out yet and will see what happens coming out of the debate.

[Zontar]

9 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

You can hope he runs as a 3rd party but that would be massive wishful thinking on your part.  Bernie is a prick, but not big a prick.  I assume he isnt dropping out yet and will see what happens coming out of the debate.

Sounds like he is staying in another round. Hoping Biden implodes is a desperate strategy.. 

Why would I wish for a 3rd party ?

[The Unknown Poster]

Just now, Zontar said:

Sounds like he is staying in another round. Hoping Biden implodes is a desperate strategy.. 

Why would I wish for a 3rd party ?

because of Trump love.

[Zontar]

Just now, The Unknown Poster said:

because of Trump love.

Explain

[The Unknown Poster]

Just now, Zontar said:

Explain

You love Trump, Bernie running splits the Dem vote.  I mean, thats sort of obvious no?  Russia would love it too.  Russia and Trump would be so happy.  lol

[Zontar]

1 minute ago, The Unknown Poster said:

You love Trump, Bernie running splits the Dem vote.  I mean, thats sort of obvious no?  Russia would love it too.  Russia and Trump would be so happy.  lol

What's worse vote splitting or no votes at all ? Angry Bernie types sick of business as usual Democrats and getting screwed over again, which explains Bernies rise in the first place , will stay home. 

[The Unknown Poster]

2 minutes ago, Zontar said:

What's worse vote splitting or no votes at all ? Angry Bernie types sick of business as usual Democrats and getting screwed over again, which explains Bernies rise in the first place , will stay home. 

I cant predict the future but you really think everything we've seen is indicative of Dems not voting?  Come on.... Take off the orange-coloured Trump shades.   Barring an act of God, a major Biden scandal or insane levels of cheating, Trump will get trounced.

[Zontar]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

I cant predict the future but you really think everything we've seen is indicative of Dems not voting?  Come on.... Take off the orange-coloured Trump shades.   Barring an act of God, a major Biden scandal or insane levels of cheating, Trump will get trounced.

No,Bernie supporters not voting is the question plus the Democrats possibly losing Sanders considerable ground level organizing which are key in close races.

They are some angry people among them.  Can't count out localized violence either.

[The Unknown Poster]

2 minutes ago, Zontar said:

No,Bernie supporters not voting is the question plus the Democrats possibly losing Sanders considerable ground level organizing which are key in close races.

They are some angry people among them.  Can't count out localized violence either.

Well its on Bernie to either be a sore loser or not.  He's finished as a presidential candidate due to his age.  But he can have an impact if he throws in with Biden.  I expect him to be smarter than to kneecap Biden.  No great conspiracy here, he appealed to a niche market and lost.  

[Zontar]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Well its on Bernie to either be a sore loser or not.  He's finished as a presidential candidate due to his age.  But he can have an impact if he throws in with Biden.  I expect him to be smarter than to kneecap Biden.  No great conspiracy here, he appealed to a niche market and lost.  

Biden is riding high but to keep the momentum one has to campaign hard and Biden can't do that.  He hasn't really earned much it's all been given to him.  Eventually the momentum will die and Democrats will need all the help they can get to keep it all afloat.

[The Unknown Poster]

1 minute ago, Zontar said:

Biden is riding high but to keep the momentum one has to campaign hard and Biden can't do that.  He hasn't really earned much it's all been given to him.  Eventually the momentum will die and Democrats will need all the help they can get to keep it all afloat.

Its so early.  Obama will campaign for Biden which will be big.  Warren will.  If Bernie does too, its a landslide.  Who will campaign for Trump?  People who have been stained by Trump already.  Their preaching to the Trump choir.  

[Zontar]

37 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Its so early.  Obama will campaign for Biden which will be big.  Warren will.  If Bernie does too, its a landslide.  Who will campaign for Trump?  People who have been stained by Trump already.  Their preaching to the Trump choir.  

Last minute Chuck Norris endorsement will put Trump over the top.

[Wanna-B-Fanboy]

14 hours ago, Zontar said:

Deck was being stacked against Bernie but....

He had more than enough money, well organized nation wide staff, pre established base to expand, 4 years to plan...

This is a monumental rejection of the far left.

Its not the platform and ideas that are being rejected- it's the question of electability. 

polll after poll after poll shows that US citizens want the stuff Bernie is putting out there. 

[do or die]

29 minutes ago, Zontar said:

Last minute Chuck Norris endorsement will put Trump over the top.

Last minute Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Mohammed bin Salman endorsements will put Trump over the top

[Wideleft]

Fact check: A list of 28 ways Trump and his team have been dishonest about the coronavirus

By Daniel Dale and Tara Subramaniam, CNN

Updated 2:38 PM ET, Wed March 11, 2020

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump has been comprehensively misinforming the public about the coronavirus.

Trump has littered his public remarks on the life-and-death subject with false, misleading and dubious claims. And he has been joined, on occasion, by senior members of his administration.

We've counted 28 different ways the President and his team have been inaccurate. Here is a chronological list, which may be updated as additional misinformation comes to our attention.

 

(more)

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/politics/fact-check-trump-administration-coronavirus-28-dishonest/index.html

[do or die]

Trump now claiming that a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border would also aid in containing the coronavirus, tweeting that the structure is “Going up fast” and “We need the Wall more than ever!”

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