The Expansion Draft

[JCon]

7 minutes ago, Atomic said:

Every team has a Dano available

You get more for Enstrom at the deadline. He's worth more than Dano. 

[The Unknown Poster]

9 hours ago, JCon said:

You get more for Enstrom at the deadline. He's worth more than Dano. 

That's the thing.  Ideally, Dano is worth more because he's younger, still has promise, is cheap and they control him for years.  Toby makes no sense for a team that is starting a build from scratch...other than the value he holds to another team.  So the question is, is there another team that wants Toby right now and is willing to offer more value than Dano?  I dont think so.

Will there be a team willing to offer more value than Dano at the deadline?  Maybe but more likely in the form of picks. 

When you consider Tobys public proclamation of not wanting to go, I think Vegas takes Dano.  He offers more now and in the future.  Toby is a wild card unless a team wants him right now.  And Im not sure how many teams want an aging D-man with a less than spectacular past year or two with a high salary.

Keeping him for the deadline is a crap shoot especially since Enstrom has been hurt.  If you cant move him at the deadline, you lose him for nothing to free agency. 

Dano is worth more.  He can play top six and a poor team.  And they control him.  Unless Vegas needs salary to make the floor but I think they will be active enough in free agency to not need to essentially waste a pick on Toby.

[Atomic]

Not sure where this idea that Dano can play top six comes from.  What is it based on?  He is a borderline NHLer at this point in his career.  Certainly not top six.  Maybe some day.  But not now, and maybe not ever.

[The Unknown Poster]

1 hour ago, Atomic said:

Not sure where this idea that Dano can play top six comes from.  What is it based on?  He is a borderline NHLer at this point in his career.  Certainly not top six.  Maybe some day.  But not now, and maybe not ever.

If he's in your top six, its probably bad news for your team's chances.  But this is Vegas.  I'd say Dano gives them a solid 3rd line guy who, in the case of injuries, can move up as a fill in. There is still potential there. 

[Jimmy Pop]

Enstrom is worth more than Dano, and it's really not even close. 

Another case of Winnipegitis, where we over or under value a player because they are in our market and we watch them so closely.  Enstrom is a top 4 NHL defenseman with plenty of experience.  A crap year from him last season and he still logged 22 mins/night.  Go scout other teams D pairings from last season - I'd wager Toby fits in a top 4 for at least 5-10 teams and is certainly a top 6 for at least 2/3 of the league.  Dano is still nothing but potential, not to mention possibly going to his 4th organization before turning 23. That says something to me. 

Enstrom would be attractive to Vegas because he steps in game 1 and eats minutes. Come trade deadline, they cut bait and get a pick and/or prospect for him.  

I suppose Toby could say no to Vegas and retire - but somehow I doubt he'd throw away all that cash.

[Atomic]

People think Vegas is just going to go all-in on prospects and accept that they will be terrible in year one..... not gonna happen.  There will be some veterans taken.  They will try to build a decent top-six forward corps and top-four defence with the expansion draft.  That means some veterans will be taken.  And Enstrom is one of the top D available in the draft.

[Noeller]

I can't understand why they wouldn't want some solid, reliable veterans, if for no other reason than to help grow the young ones? On top of that, they'll need to take on some bigger salaries just to meet the cap floor. A guy like Toby fits perfectly for them. Having said that, as a Jets fan, I hope he doesn't get chosen, 'cause I still really like him in Winnipeg.

[Jimmy Pop]

5 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I can't understand why they wouldn't want some solid, reliable veterans, if for no other reason than to help grow the young ones? On top of that, they'll need to take on some bigger salaries just to meet the cap floor. A guy like Toby fits perfectly for them. Having said that, as a Jets fan, I hope he doesn't get chosen, 'cause I still really like him in Winnipeg.

An underrated point not everyone is talking about.  

I hate it too...but he's just such a good fit for them.  High salary to get to the floor in year 1, but no term so they're free in 12 mths, worst case Ontario.  Best case, some trigger happy GM sends them a 1st.  

[BomberBall]

17 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

An underrated point not everyone is talking about.  

I hate it too...but he's just such a good fit for them.  High salary to get to the floor in year 1, but no term so they're free in 12 mths, worst case Ontario.  Best case, some trigger happy GM sends them a 1st.  

Is that Carmen San Diego's side kick?

I agree that Toby would be a good fit for what Vegas needs, but a lot of people are speculating that they may want to move him right away or at the trade deadline.  I know Toby waived his NMC, but does that mean it's gone from the contract or was it just for the expansion draft, to help out the Jets?  Can he be traded without waiving it again?

[JCon]

I've said it before and I'll say it again....

Once you waive your NMC, it's gone. You can negotiate with the new team to add again and do negotiate it before waiving your first NMC. It's it essentially replacing the old one, not carrying it forward.

Bogo is an example. He waived to go to Buffalo and it was never added back.

[Rich]

3 minutes ago, BomberBall said:

Is that Carmen San Diego's side kick?

I agree that Toby would be a good fit for what Vegas needs, but a lot of people are speculating that they may want to move him right away or at the trade deadline.  I know Toby waived his NMC, but does that mean it's gone from the contract or was it just for the expansion draft, to help out the Jets?  Can he be traded without waiving it again?

There isn't a straight answer on this.  They had an ex GM or agent or whatever on TSN 1290 to answer this question last night.

When a player waives, he has the option of waiving all together (removing it from the contract), or waiving it only for the one transaction.  It isn't clear which way Toby went.  

So, if Toby only waived to go to Vegas, and it sticks with the contract, this may be a reason they don't pick him as he would then have to waive again if they wanted to trade him at the deadline.

[FrostyWinnipeg]

Here's the question...or maybe the answer...when it comes to Winnipeg the VGK GM is gonna ask Gary Lawless who they should pick and Gary will say...

[JCon]

15 minutes ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Here's the question...or maybe the answer...when it comes to Winnipeg the VGK GM is gonna ask Gary Lawless who they should pick and Gary will say...

McCrimmon attended 30 Jets games this year. If McPhee asks Lawless anything but where to eat while in Winnipeg, then VGK is doomed!

(But Gary will say, Enstrom. He can be flipped for a prospect or pick equal to Dano.)

[Jimmy Pop]

49 minutes ago, BomberBall said:

Is that Carmen San Diego's side kick?

I agree that Toby would be a good fit for what Vegas needs, but a lot of people are speculating that they may want to move him right away or at the trade deadline.  I know Toby waived his NMC, but does that mean it's gone from the contract or was it just for the expansion draft, to help out the Jets?  Can he be traded without waiving it again?

Spy for a spy. 

[Jimmy Pop]

 

[The Unknown Poster]

 

[BomberBall]

1 hour ago, Rich said:

There isn't a straight answer on this.  They had an ex GM or agent or whatever on TSN 1290 to answer this question last night.

When a player waives, he has the option of waiving all together (removing it from the contract), or waiving it only for the one transaction.  It isn't clear which way Toby went.  

So, if Toby only waived to go to Vegas, and it sticks with the contract, this may be a reason they don't pick him as he would then have to waive again if they wanted to trade him at the deadline.

I'm only speculating here, obviously, but given Toby doesn't want to leave Winnipeg, I think it would be highly unlikely that he would have agreed to have the NMC removed from his contract?  I still think there's a decent chance Vegas takes him, even if they can't flip him at some point this season.  It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[The Unknown Poster]

8 minutes ago, BomberBall said:

I'm only speculating here, obviously, but given Toby doesn't want to leave Winnipeg, I think it would be highly unlikely that he would have agreed to have the NMC removed from his contract?  I still think there's a decent chance Vegas takes him, even if they can't flip him at some point this season.  It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

I have no idea but I would strongly suspect the NHL has a clause on this.  Because during the normal course of events, if you ask a player to waive his NMC to go to X, that player can say "sure, but only if they honor my NMC" and then they do and its done. 

For expansion, they had to get the player to waive before knowing if Vegas wants them.  There is no opt out option here for toby to change his mind now.  So it can only make sense that it's either "in" or "out" without any further addendum or what have you.  And I'd suspect that the PA would prefer it be a "waive for Vegas only" scenario.

But all the talk about Fleury was "waived to go to Vegas" and yet a lot of talk of Vegas picking him and flipping him.

In short, who knows.

[Jimmy Pop]

I for sure saw a credible source on twitter last night saying with certainty that a player can waive his NMC for the expansion draft only.

Can't find it now of course. So no help, am I. 

[Jimmy Pop]

 

[The Unknown Poster]

That makes a lot of sense.

[JCon]

Enstrom is far less valuable now to VGK.

[TrueBlue4ever]

5 hours ago, Atomic said:

Not sure where this idea that Dano can play top six comes from.  What is it based on?  He is a borderline NHLer at this point in his career.  Certainly not top six.  Maybe some day.  But not now, and maybe not ever.

I think the idea is that his points per 60 minutes average is 1.96, which is the same as Nicolaj Ehlers and Joe Pavelski. He just gets put on the bottom line with a Thorburn and a Copp for 6-7 minutes max. a night and therefore doesn't get the points that come with bigger minutes. That's the theory anyway. Not saying I buy it myself (if he is that good wouldn't they move him up?) but that I suspect is the rationale from those who think he's a untapped gem.

[Atomic]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

I think the idea is that his points per 60 minutes average is 1.96, which is the same as Nicolaj Ehlers and Joe Pavelski. He just gets put on the bottom line with a Thorburn and a Copp for 6-7 minutes max. a night and therefore doesn't get the points that come with bigger minutes. That's the theory anyway. Not saying I buy it myself (if he is that good wouldn't they move him up?) but that I suspect is the rationale from those who think he's a untapped gem.

Yeah well if I go into an NBA game for 30 seconds and shoot a 3-pointer from half court I'll have the best PPG in the league.

Sample size matters.

[JCon]

4 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

I think the idea is that his points per 60 minutes average is 1.96, which is the same as Nicolaj Ehlers and Joe Pavelski. He just gets put on the bottom line with a Thorburn and a Copp for 6-7 minutes max. a night and therefore doesn't get the points that come with bigger minutes. That's the theory anyway. Not saying I buy it myself (if he is that good wouldn't they move him up?) but that I suspect is the rationale from those who think he's a untapped gem.

I just looked it up, for curiosity sake.

1.63 in 2016/17

1.44 in 2015/16