Canadian Politics

[Jpan85]

45 minutes ago, JCon said:

It will be an interesting evening, that's for sure. I'm very curious to see how the GTA sorts itself out. And, if the NDP or Liberals can flip some seats in AB. What happens in the Lower Mainland? What about some key ridings in Winnipeg? Quebec, status quo? 

Mail-in ballots start getting counted when the polls close. I wonder how long those will take, given the high volume? 

 

Mail in ballots are counted tomorrow apparently

[JCon]

4 hours ago, Jpan85 said:

Mail in ballots are counted tomorrow apparently

Officially, they can be counted as soon as polls close to ensure someone with a mail-in ballot does not vote in person too. It may be that Elections Canada is not going to open them tonight, which I assume is a staffing issue. 

Polling suggests that mail-in ballots lean heavy to Liberals and NDP. But, I don't think that polling takes into account regional variances in voting patterns. So, each riding is likely different. 

 

Oh, and thank-goodness for independent election commissions!! I can't believe any first world country still relies on partisan commissions. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by JCon

[bustamente]

A Liberal majority all depends on how big a bite the NDP take from them in parts of Canada and how well the Bloc do in Quebec, PC's have a faint hope for a minority win

[JCon]

2 minutes ago, bustamente said:

A Liberal majority all depends on how big a bite the NDP take from them in parts of Canada and how well the Bloc do in Quebec, PC's have a faint hope for a minority win

I don't see the Conservatives actually forming gov't. They'll need a partner to hold them up. The Bloc? 

I bet, even if the Cons win the most seats, that the current gov't, with NDP backing, would be asked to form the next gov't. 

We'll see. 

[the watcher]

1 hour ago, JCon said:

I don't see the Conservatives actually forming gov't. They'll need a partner to hold them up. The Bloc? 

I bet, even if the Cons win the most seats, that the current gov't, with NDP backing, would be asked to form the next gov't. 

We'll see. 

Thats such a rare thing. I don't know if it happens. Without looking it up I think it has happened before but It has been a long time if it has.

[Tracker]

It seems to me that the Liberal ad blitz over the weekend highlighting the O'Toole/Conservative policies that are out of step with the majority of Canadian voters' values was pretty effective. And yes, the lunatic-fringe PPC party will hurt the Conservatives in key ridings.

[Noeller]

most pollsters and pundits that I've ready, are predicting a Liberal minority, with a chance at a Liberal majority, depending on what happens in BC. They're expecting everything east of Manitoba to go "mostly Red", guaranteeing a minority, and then depending on what BC does, it could be expanded to a majority....we shall see! 

[Mark F]

 

a rightwing win of any kind, means attacks on universal healthcare.

This is one of the things the business , wealthy class feels strongly  about.

one of the very few things where they arent at the front of the line.

see it every jurisdiction in Canada where right wing holds power.

the B.C. system is a real mess, after years of right wing abuse.

seven year wait to get a family doctor.

Not sure why any Canadian that isnt wealthy, would want that. 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Mark F

[JCon]

24 minutes ago, the watcher said:

Thats such a rare thing. I don't know if it happens. Without looking it up I think it has happened before but It has been a long time if it has.

It's really, really rare. But, I don't think the Cons would have a strong case to form gov't, unless they found a partner. It would create quite the adversarial parliament though and would be interesting. 

[Tracker]

8 minutes ago, JCon said:

It's really, really rare. But, I don't think the Cons would have a strong case to form gov't, unless they found a partner. It would create quite the adversarial parliament though and would be interesting. 

I'm pretty sure that the collective egos of the Cons would not allow them to be measured in their governance, and that would lead to another election. When you promise to relax gun laws, reduce access to abortion and begin to privatize healthcare and yet not deliver, that would arouse ire among supporters. The Liberals, NDP and Bloc would stop those dead in their tracks.

[GCn20]

13 minutes ago, JCon said:

It's really, really rare. But, I don't think the Cons would have a strong case to form gov't, unless they found a partner. It would create quite the adversarial parliament though and would be interesting. 

If the Cons win the most seats today they will form government, and if they are brought down in a non confidence vote then you would probably see a Liberal minority give it a shot. At any rate I think we will see a Lib minority.

1 minute ago, Tracker said:

I'm pretty sure that the collective egos of the Cons would not allow them to be measured in their governance, and that would lead to another election. When you promise to relax gun laws, reduce access to abortion and begin to privatize healthcare and yet not deliver, that would arouse ire among supporters. The Liberals, NDP and Bloc would stop those dead in their tracks.

Not how minority governments work. First the Liberals would be given a chance to form a minority government.

[the watcher]

14 minutes ago, JCon said:

It's really, really rare. But, I don't think the Cons would have a strong case to form gov't, unless they found a partner. It would create quite the adversarial parliament though and would be interesting. 

Which we have had  many times before. It's not right to change precedence or rules just because we don't like results. 

[JCon]

1 minute ago, the watcher said:

Which we have had  many times before. It's not right to change precedence or rules just because we don't like results. 

Um, no rules or precedent change at all. 

[Jpan85]

It seems like the UCP party in Alberta is in full meltdown mode right now.

[Noeller]

1 minute ago, Jpan85 said:

It seems like the UCP party in Alberta is in full meltdown mode right now.

revolt from the inside...(mutiny?) with details apparently set to emerge tomorrow after the election is over. Anybody who cares even a little bit about Alberta is hoping that Kenney calls a snap election if they try to take him down. The NDP will win in a walk, and things will finally get back to some semblance of normal...

[the watcher]

30 minutes ago, Mark F said:

 

a rightwing win of any kind, means attacks on universal healthcare.

This is one of the things the business , wealthy class feels strongly  about.

one of the very few things where they arent at the front of the line.

see it every jurisdiction in Canada where right wing holds power.

the B.C. system is a real mess, after years of right wing abuse.

seven year wait to get a family doctor.

Not sure why any Canadian that isnt wealthy, would want that. 

 

I know BC politics moves to the beat of its own drum but they have been NDP and Liberal pretty much since 1991

10 minutes ago, JCon said:

Um, no rules or precedent change at all. 

So the last time the party without the most seats didn't form the  government was ?

Let me answer that for you. 1864

Edited September 20, 2021 by the watcher

[GCn20]

9 minutes ago, the watcher said:

Which we have had  many times before. It's not right to change precedence or rules just because we don't like results. 

The party with the most seats will always get the first chance to form government. It would be political suicide for any party to come out and say they refuse to work with the minority winner right off the bat. It would be extremely damaging if the either the Libs or Cons tried grabbing power without the most seats as well. I know the Liberals are nervous, and they should be, but there is no world in which all parties in opposition would refuse to give the seat winner a chance.

[JCon]

7 minutes ago, the watcher said:

So the last time the party without the most seats didn't form the  government was ?

The GG will decide who forms the next gov't. If the Cons get the most seats, they will get the first opportunity to form gov't. If they can't demonstrate that they can form a stable gov't, the GG may invite the others parties to do so. It's about stability of gov't, not owning Libs or personal. If the Cons could find dance partners, they could form gov't. If not, then the GG is obligated to give the other parties another chance. Again, no rules or precedents broken. 

 

And, by custom, the GG needs to let the Libs form gov't, if it's a minority, if they can. 

Mackenzie King formed gov't despite not having more seats than the Liberals did. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by JCon

[the watcher]

1 minute ago, JCon said:

The GG will decide who forms the next gov't. If the Cons get the most seats, they will get the first opportunity to form gov't. If they can't demonstrate that they can form a stable gov't, the GG may invite the others parties to do so. It's about stability of gov't, not owning Libs or personal. If the Cons could find dance partners, they could form gov't. If not, then the GG is obligated to give the other parties another chance. Again, no rules or precedents broken. 

If ( and I don't  think it is going to happen ) the Conservatives win a minority they will form the government.  I will lay money on it. 

[JCon]

Just now, the watcher said:

If ( and I don't  think it is going to happen ) the Conservatives win a minority they will form the government.  I will lay money on it. 

Put whatever money you want on it. If it's close, the Liberals will be invited to demonstrate they have the confidence of majority of the house. If they can, they'll continue to govern. 

I don't think the Cons will win a minority but, if they do, who would prop them up? How would they hold confidence? 

Only scenario I can see is the is the Libs propping them up while they go through a leadership "review" to replace Trudeau. 

[the watcher]

1 minute ago, JCon said:

Put whatever money you want on it. If it's close, the Liberals will be invited to demonstrate they have the confidence of majority of the house. If they can, they'll continue to govern. 

The last coalition government was in 1864.  In the event the Conservatives have a minority either the Bloc or possibly the NDP will back them. Just like the NDP held their nose and supported the Liberals. The party with the most seats will govern. Even if MBB doesn't like it.

[JCon]

Just now, the watcher said:

The last coalition government was in 1864.  In the event the Conservatives have a minority either the Bloc or possibly the NDP will back them. Just like the NDP held their nose and supported the Liberals. The party with the most seats will govern. Even if MBB doesn't like it.

I have no idea what you're arguing about. It's just facts about how Canadian civics work. Go to Twitter to fight with someone. 

[the watcher]

2 minutes ago, JCon said:

I have no idea what you're arguing about. It's just facts about how Canadian civics work. Go to Twitter to fight with someone. 

Who is fighting ? I just disagree about what would happen. It's a discussion

[Tracker]

16 minutes ago, the watcher said:

If ( and I don't  think it is going to happen ) the Conservatives win a minority they will form the government.  I will lay money on it. 

If they possibly can, they will. If they are in a dead heat with the Liberals and the Liberals are asked to form a coalition, the Cons will probably scream bloody murder.

[JCon]

1 minute ago, Tracker said:

If they possibly can, they will. If they are in a dead heat with the Liberals and the Liberals are asked to form a coalition, the Cons will probably scream bloody murder.

The fallout would be huge.