Canadian Politics

[Tracker]

1 hour ago, Mark F said:

he happened to be p.m. when it happened. that is an accident, not an accomplishment.

Trudeau's response to the pandemic was appropriate and effective, gaining him a lot of voter support, but he damned near blew it by calling an election when no one wanted it. I am assuming it was his call, but somehow I doubt it.

[Noeller]

6 minutes ago, Tracker said:

Trudeau's response to the pandemic was appropriate and effective, gaining him a lot of voter support, but he damned near blew it by calling an election when no one wanted it. I am assuming it was his call, but somehow I doubt it.

People give him WAY too much credit and blame. Trudeau is really just a figure head for the party....there is absolutely no way he makes any real decisions. 

[WildPath]

2 hours ago, Noeller said:

People give him WAY too much credit and blame. Trudeau is really just a figure head for the party....there is absolutely no way he makes any real decisions. 

Actually that is probably my favourite thing about Trudeau. He seems to have good advice on policy and takes it. Its kind of the opposite as we had in MB with Pallister. Though I guess it is easy for MLAs to say they were critical of him behind closed doors after he leaves while very unpopular.

[JCon]

59 minutes ago, WildPath said:

Actually that is probably my favourite thing about Trudeau. He seems to have good advice on policy and takes it. Its kind of the opposite as we had in MB with Pallister. Though I guess it is easy for MLAs to say they were critical of him behind closed doors after he leaves while very unpopular.

I can think of a few former Liberal MPs who would take umbrage with this. A couple that were particularly outspoken as they were being unceremoniously dumped out of caucus. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by JCon
Typos

[WildPath]

Good point. I kind of mixed my points. Pallister with his MLAs and Trudeau with actual advisors rather than MPs. I agree there have been a few issues with MPs.

[GCn20]

Gerald Butts is a snake in the grass.  That is all.

[GCn20]

21 hours ago, voodoochylde said:

Which could be the only way they secure a majority with the Bloc Quebecois being as prominent as they are.  It will be a balancing act though, too far left and they will alienate ("scare") centrists in the party and across Canada as a whole.  We are a left leaning country but not so far left ..

The reason that the Liberals haven't been able to land a majority over the past 2 elections is that they have strayed too far left. Go any further and the centrists, which are the majority of Canadian VOTERS, will put the party in that they feel is closest to center. If O'Toole had any brand recognition and gumption to have made the CPC appeal to the centrists before the election call he likely wins this election. It would be monumentally stupid for the Liberals to continue going more left of centre than they already are. The NDP are irrelevant because that is where they are on the political spectrum and only appeal to a small fraction of the voting public. If the Liberals pander to the 15% support the NDP get they will lose 20% of their popular support directly to the CPC.  The Liberals historically are a centrist party. That's their brand and that's their appeal. Don't believe for one second either that the Liberals, the back room power brokers, want to be any more left of centre either. They are quite likely very uncomfortable with how left they are appearing already.

Edited September 22, 2021 by GCn20

[WildPath]

5 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

The reason that the Liberals haven't been able to land a majority over the past 2 elections is that they have strayed too far left. Go any further and the centrists, which are the majority of Canadian VOTERS, will put the party in that they feel is closest to center. If O'Toole had any brand recognition and gumption to have made the CPC appeal to the centrists before the election call he likely wins this election. It would be monumentally stupid for the Liberals to continue going more left of centre than they already are. The NDP are irrelevant because that is where they are on the political spectrum and only appeal to a small fraction of the voting public. If the Liberals pander to the 15% support the NDP get they will lose 20% of their popular support directly to the CPC.  The Liberals historically are a centrist party. That's their brand and that's their appeal. Don't believe for one second either that the Liberals, the back room power brokers, want to be any more left of centre either. They are quite likely very uncomfortable with how left they are appearing already.

They should feel good about where they are sitting on the political spectrum. They've won a few elections in a row, despite scandals and a somewhat unpopular leader. Perhaps they've realized that the average Canadian has also shifted left, something the CPC have all but acknowledged. "Not your dad's conservative party" was meant to strongly signal their move left. Support for unions and putting a price on carbon, no matter how ridiculous the plan is, shows they felt they needed to move left to gain power. They still didn't. I'm not sure if it was a strategic error or not or whether they would have done better to appeal to the right more.

[GCn20]

57 minutes ago, WildPath said:

They should feel good about where they are sitting on the political spectrum. They've won a few elections in a row, despite scandals and a somewhat unpopular leader. Perhaps they've realized that the average Canadian has also shifted left, something the CPC have all but acknowledged. "Not your dad's conservative party" was meant to strongly signal their move left. Support for unions and putting a price on carbon, no matter how ridiculous the plan is, shows they felt they needed to move left to gain power. They still didn't. I'm not sure if it was a strategic error or not or whether they would have done better to appeal to the right more.

The only path to power for the CPC is to compete for and win the centrist vote. Same holds true for the Liberals. Too far left or right of the political spectrum wins you nothing. The CPC needs to do a deep dive into the GTA and try change them from red to blue. The Liberals need to move to the centre as well. Nik Nanos did a nice report about this on youtube. He said his polling shows that in order to win a majority in Canada the fight is not for the progressive vote, it is for the centrist vote.

[the watcher]

22 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

The only path to power for the CPC is to compete for and win the centrist vote. Same holds true for the Liberals. Too far left or right of the political spectrum wins you nothing. The CPC needs to do a deep dive into the GTA and try change them from red to blue. The Liberals need to move to the centre as well. Nik Nanos did a nice report about this on youtube. He said his polling shows that in order to win a majority in Canada the fight is not for the progressive vote, it is for the centrist vote.

Agreed. The only way to power for the CPC  is to compete for the center, especially on social matters. I believe we are in for a pretty rough ride fiscally .  There is going to be a draw at some point to a more fiscally responsible government. The CPC can probably cash in  on that  but only if they can appeal or at least appear to be centralist on more social matters. I'm not saying a CPC government will be, or would have been more  fiscally responsible .I'm just saying they are seen as that especially in harder economic times.

[JCon]

34 minutes ago, the watcher said:

Agreed. The only way to power for the CPC  is to compete for the center, especially on social matters. I believe we are in for a pretty rough ride fiscally .  There is going to be a draw at some point to a more fiscally responsible government. The CPC can probably cash in  on that  but only if they can appeal or at least appear to be centralist on more social matters. I'm not saying a CPC government will be, or would have been more  fiscally responsible .I'm just saying they are seen as that especially in harder economic times.

CPC would do well to ride out the storm right now and keep O'Toole. If they can clean up their messaging on the guns and just pick a darn side, that would help. Just keep the Libs carbon pricing status quo. They've been hurt dramatically by their Provincial cousins who seem incapable of leading. 

Be fiscally conservative and socially progressive. Capture those that want to vote Liberal but don't like them heading to the left. 

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by JCon

[Noeller]

2 hours ago, GCn20 said:

Gerald Butts is a snake in the grass.  That is all.

Gerry Butts and Max Fawcett are probably my two favourite poli pundits to follow on Twitter. Really appreciate their insights...

[WildPath]

Some of the election can also be seen as the CPC reaping the rewards from years of feeding their followers BS. They've finally accepted there should be a price on carbon, but the stink of vehemently going against the science for years has stuck with them and it looks good on them too. Its hard for anyone who considers themselves centrist to actually believe they will value the environment and climate change. I know I over-emphasize how much the general population cares about the environment, but the CPCs are starting to realize climate change deniers will be left in the past.

[HardCoreBlue]

1 hour ago, WildPath said:

Some of the election can also be seen as the CPC reaping the rewards from years of feeding their followers BS. They've finally accepted there should be a price on carbon, but the stink of vehemently going against the science for years has stuck with them and it looks good on them too. Its hard for anyone who considers themselves centrist to actually believe they will value the environment and climate change. I know I over-emphasize how much the general population cares about the environment, but the CPCs are starting to realize climate change deniers will be left in the past.

I'm hoping this takes a much broader realization.

Deniers of strongly evidenced facts will be left in the past and flushed away. 

[WildPath]

36 minutes ago, HardCoreBlue said:

I'm hoping this takes a much broader realization.

Deniers of strongly evidenced facts will be left in the past and flushed away. 

Let's hope this will be the legacy of parties in power that have mismanaged Covid and contradicted scientific facts continuously.

[Tracker]

On the CBC radio news last night, they interviewed a political science professor from U of Calgary, and some interesting stuff was reported. Firstly, although the Cons nearly swept Alberta, their popular vote fell nearly 14%. Secondly, the recently demoted minister of health went to the home of a doctor in Calgary who had the temerity to openly criticize the Alberta opening up prematurely and screamed at him in front of the doctor's family. Damned if that doesn't sound like GOP politics.

[17to85]

1 hour ago, Tracker said:

Secondly, the recently demoted minister of health went to the home of a doctor in Calgary who had the temerity to openly criticize the Alberta opening up prematurely and screamed at him in front of the doctor's family.

Yeah that happened ages ago... and he still kept the portfolio until now.

[Noeller]

Yeah that was 2020...maybe summer......when Shandro physically attacked the doctor in his driveway. Shandro is a loose cannon...little Elroy Jetson type who just seems to always be angry about something. As for the CPC losing support in AB, that can be attributed to two things: The various alt-right parties (PPC, Maverick, etc) and the people angry with Kenney and willing to vote ABC.....

[Mark H.]

It's interesting when you look at some of the ridings, especially in Ontario and BC

When you add up the CPC & PPC votes, there are enough votes to defeat the Liberal candidate.

Then again, maybe some people who voted PPC would otherwise not have voted at all. 

[Bigblue204]

1 minute ago, Mark H. said:

It's interesting when you look at some of the ridings, especially in Ontario and BC

When you add up the CPC & PPC votes, there are enough votes to defeat the Liberal candidate.

Then again, maybe some people who voted PPC would otherwise not have voted at all. 

This is true. As I know a few 1st timers who voted for PPC. I also think it's possible some people who normally voted for the Libs went to the PPC. It's not just taking votes from the CPC.

[Mark H.]

3 minutes ago, Bigblue204 said:

This is true. As I know a few 1st timers who voted for PPC. I also think it's possible some people who normally voted for the Libs went to the PPC. It's not just taking votes from the CPC.

Yes, I'm thinking a Liberal who's fed up with Trudeau (some are) might have voted PPC.

The PPC got 20% of the vote in Portage Lisgar - but that riding has been blue since the beginning of time. 

[Tracker]

45 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

It's interesting when you look at some of the ridings, especially in Ontario and BC

When you add up the CPC & PPC votes, there are enough votes to defeat the Liberal candidate.

Then again, maybe some people who voted PPC would otherwise not have voted at all. 

And, to be the Devils's advocate, if you add the NDP vote to the Liberals' votes, they would probably swept the election.

[Noeller]

it'd be really interesting to see what Canada would look like if we had a 2 party system like the States.... Progressives vs Conservatives. 

[TrueBlue4ever]

1 hour ago, Noeller said:

it'd be really interesting to see what Canada would look like if we had a 2 party system like the States.... Progressives vs Conservatives. 

It would also be interesting to see if there would have been any minority governments in the last 40 years if the Bloc Québécois did not exist. 

[Mark H.]

56 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

It would also be interesting to see if there would have been any minority governments in the last 40 years if the Bloc Québécois did not exist. 

Quebec went orange in 2011, so there is that. I think Bloc strongholds wouldn't necessarily go red or blue, if the Bloc were dissolved.