Canadian Politics

[Tracker]

7 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

With Poilievre, is that momentum going to last three years until the next election? Even if the election is in a year, say fall of 2023, will he have the performance in the house to keep momentum or will he fall on his face?

Extremists have a long history of saying or doing really stupid things, so all the Liberals need do is bide their time.

[GCn20]

31 minutes ago, Tracker said:

Extremists have a long history of saying or doing really stupid things, so all the Liberals need do is bide their time.

Saying, or doing, stupid things hasn't hurt Trudeau that much. He has been the poster boy for putting his foot in his mouth. Just saying. That being said, I don't believe Pollievre can win an election without going more to the middle of the political spectrum. 

[17to85]

6 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

Saying, or doing, stupid things hasn't hurt Trudeau that much. He has been the poster boy for putting his foot in his mouth. Just saying. That being said, I don't believe Pollievre can win an election without going more to the middle of the political spectrum. 

It has hurt Trudeau though. Problem is the conservatives keep doing stupid **** too turning voters off of them too.

[blue_gold_84]

43 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

With Poilievre, is that momentum going to last three years until the next election? Even if the election is in a year, say fall of 2023, will he have the performance in the house to keep momentum or will he fall on his face?

I can't see there being an election next year. That is to say, as long as the LPC-NDP agreement remains in place.

As for Poilievre, irrational hyperbole (Justinflation, for example), dog whistles, and empty promises will only get him so far. He should've learned from the last two CPC leaders how ineffective those tactics can be.

[Tracker]

1 hour ago, 17to85 said:

It has hurt Trudeau though. Problem is the conservatives keep doing stupider **** too turning voters off of them too.

FIFY

[17to85]

1 hour ago, blue_gold_84 said:

As for Poilievre, irrational hyperbole (Justinflation, for example), dog whistles, and empty promises will only get him so far. He should've learned from the last two CPC leaders how ineffective those tactics can be.

Yeah I just think the people who are going to vote based on these dog whistle issues are already locked into the conservatives. Might as well try some policy that appeals to the majority of Canadians. "Trudeau bad! Liberals bad!" Has lost them 3 elections in a row now. Clearly people aren't buying it.

[Mark H.]

3 hours ago, GCn20 said:

Saying, or doing, stupid things hasn't hurt Trudeau that much. He has been the poster boy for putting his foot in his mouth. Just saying. That being said, I don't believe Pollievre can win an election without going more to the middle of the political spectrum. 

It has hurt him somewhat - he's won back to back minorities - at least one of those should have easily been a majority

Unless Pollievre's current positions are just grandstanding in order to win the leadership race - he has no chance of winning an election

[Noeller]

The thing Pollievre is gonna do is take back any support Mad Max and the PPC had. If the Cons don't lose that PPC support last fall, do they defeat Trudeau? Quite possibly. It sickens me, but it's maybe not their worst course of action. 

[FrostyWinnipeg]

My pops hates Trump but is all in on PP and Candice B. The Cons see where the Repubs went. They won't go full Repub but anger is the medium is the message.

[Tracker]

8 minutes ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

My pops hates Trump but is all in on PP and Candice B. The Cons see where the Repubs went. They won't go full Repub but anger is the medium is the message.

Many of the Cons are already there. 

[Mark H.]

18 minutes ago, Noeller said:

The thing Pollievre is gonna do is take back any support Mad Max and the PPC had. If the Cons don't lose that PPC support last fall, do they defeat Trudeau? Quite possibly. It sickens me, but it's maybe not their worst course of action. 

You just might be right - a large chuck of the PPC vote was a Covid mandates protest - and we certainly heard the Cons fall all over themselves to support the Convoy

They've only got 119 seats right now.  Pollievre winning the PPC support back will get them maybe another 10, as there isn't that much real evidence that they lost seats due to the PPC vote

 

[GCn20]

30 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

You just might be right - a large chuck of the PPC vote was a Covid mandates protest - and we certainly heard the Cons fall all over themselves to support the Convoy

They've only got 119 seats right now.  Pollievre winning the PPC support back will get them maybe another 10, as there isn't that much real evidence that they lost seats due to the PPC vote

 

I agree. The PPC did not cost the CPC a single seat, it just cost them a few % points in seats they won easily anyway.

[Mark H.]

17 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

I agree. The PPC did not cost the CPC a single seat, it just cost them a few % points in seats they won easily anyway.

There are about 20 ridings where the votes earned by the PPC candidate would have been enough to give the Conservative candidate a victory

But there is really not enough evidence that shows they were previous CPC voters - some were even previous Green voters (fringers gonna fringe)

https://globalnews.ca/news/8212872/canada-election-conservative-vote-splitting/

 

[WildPath]

I don't know how likely it is PP will get elected, but it scares the hell out of me that there's a chance someone like him will be the leader of Canada. Even that Canada would flirt with that type of leadership.

[JCon]

One fallacy is assuming that if someone would vote CPC, if there was no PPC. More likely, a disaffected, protest voter, is not going to vote at all. Most people don't change their vote, the biggest challenge is getting them out. 

[GCn20]

6 hours ago, Mark H. said:

There are about 20 ridings where the votes earned by the PPC candidate would have been enough to give the Conservative candidate a victory

But there is really not enough evidence that shows they were previous CPC voters - some were even previous Green voters (fringers gonna fringe)

https://globalnews.ca/news/8212872/canada-election-conservative-vote-splitting/

 

If true the Liberals need to be very concerned about Pollievre because he will bring those voters to the CPC. That, and voter fatigue with Trudeau could be trouble for the Liberals if they run Trudeau again. I was not aware that the PPC had any impact at all...and lets face it 75% of the PPC are hard right CPC and Libretarians.

[Noeller]

8 hours ago, GCn20 said:

If true the Liberals need to be very concerned about Pollievre because he will bring those voters to the CPC. That, and voter fatigue with Trudeau could be trouble for the Liberals if they run Trudeau again. I was not aware that the PPC had any impact at all...and lets face it 75% of the PPC are hard right CPC and Libretarians.

Having covered the AB section of the '21 federal election quite extensively, I can tell you that the CPC lost a considerable chunk of the vote to the PPC. I don't know about other jurisdictions, but in AB, the  PPC were a major problem. With PP in charge of CPC, they would absolutely steal that vote back again, because PP is as crazy as Mad Max. 

[GCn20]

13 hours ago, WildPath said:

I don't know how likely it is PP will get elected, but it scares the hell out of me that there's a chance someone like him will be the leader of Canada. Even that Canada would flirt with that type of leadership.

I think that PP could win an election against Trudeau, and that's not a reflection on the voters of Canada, that's a reflection on the Liberal party and it's policies right now. Pierre Polievre will bring the far right...no doubt about it...but there is also a large faction of the centre of the political spectrum just waiting for a reason to dump Trudeau. I know that Liberals on here think that's crazy talk but it really isn't. The Liberals have been barely holding on for two elections now against leaders of the CPC that are as inspiring as milque toast. Love him or hate him, Pierre will talk a much better game to the disenchanted than Scheer or O'Toole. 

That being said, I really hope that the CPC elects Charest. He is a guy that could really drive a stake through the heart of the Liberals.

17 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Having covered the AB section of the '21 federal election quite extensively, I can tell you that the CPC lost a considerable chunk of the vote to the PPC. I don't know about other jurisdictions, but in AB, the  PPC were a major problem. With PP in charge of CPC, they would absolutely steal that vote back again, because PP is as crazy as Mad Max. 

I look at the numbers in Alberta, and although the PPC did steal a lot of CPC vote, they were a non-factor in the outcome of the election in that province for the most part. In Ontario, the PPC made a big difference but I suspect that the PPC support there was more of a mixed bag. May still have been enough to pull out 7-8 more seats for the CPC but that's about it. Having said that, if you add 7-8 seats to the CPC and you take 7-8 away from the Liberals it would have made life really difficult for Trudeau...not that it isn't already.

Edited April 13, 2022 by GCn20

[WildPath]

29 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

but there is also a large faction of the centre of the political spectrum just waiting for a reason to dump Trudeau. I know that Liberals on here think that's crazy talk but it really isn't.

If PP is finally the great saviour that will cause people at the CENTRE of the political spectrum to dump Trudeau, then PP is doing a horrible job campaigning on his true centrist values. I also can't recall any posters on here identifying themselves as Liberals.

[rebusrankin]

If he focused on the rising cost of housing, food etc, PP could do all right. I think the support of the Trucker Convoy, the embrace of crypto, the giving back your freedom nonsense and the general lack of substance hurts him with centrist voters. You need to do more than posting the same digs multiple times a day aka Justininflation. Is Justin responsible for inflation in the USA and Australia too, PP?

[WildPath]

24 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

If he focused on the rising cost of housing, food etc, PP could do all right. I think the support of the Trucker Convoy, the embrace of crypto, the giving back your freedom nonsense and the general lack of substance hurts him with centrist voters. You need to do more than posting the same digs multiple times a day aka Justininflation. Is Justin responsible for inflation in the USA and Australia too, PP?

Is it at all strange that the same people who are most likely to label others as "sheep" flock together for PP rallies and repeat his phrases such as Justinflation?

Again, Canada has done far better than the US and better than most of the developed world with inflation numbers. This is readily available in easy to find data. He knows his followers are uninformed, don't want to be informed and will hang on his every word and suggestion.

[GCn20]

9 minutes ago, WildPath said:

Is it at all strange that the same people who are most likely to label others as "sheep" flock together for PP rallies and repeat his phrases such as Justinflation?

Again, Canada has done far better than the US and better than most of the developed world with inflation numbers. This is readily available in easy to find data. He knows his followers are uninformed, don't want to be informed and will hang on his every word and suggestion.

Blissfully unaware describes about 75% of voters unfortunately. Voters respond to catch phrases, and believe what they read in the media and the media likes to get a change in government every so often so that they have fresh material to write about. People don't give a fig about why inflation is high, they want action from the government. Yes, inflation is high in other parts of the world, maybe even worse than here, but the same isn't true with housing cost rises and other countries are not producers like we are. Blaming inflation entirely on the rest of the world is a cop out.

Edited April 13, 2022 by GCn20

[rebusrankin]

13 minutes ago, WildPath said:

Is it at all strange that the same people who are most likely to label others as "sheep" flock together for PP rallies and repeat his phrases such as Justinflation?

Again, Canada has done far better than the US and better than most of the developed world with inflation numbers. This is readily available in easy to find data. He knows his followers are uninformed, don't want to be informed and will hang on his every word and suggestion.

Sad but true. I mean just anecdotally, I have a friend in Australia looking to buy a home and mentioning costs rising by 40% in the past two years and I've seen multiple pieces on riding US food costs affecting food banks and of course, individuals. This Justininflation stuff is ignorant of the reality of the situation. 

[GCn20]

6 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

Sad but true. I mean just anecdotally, I have a friend in Australia looking to buy a home and mentioning costs rising by 40% in the past two years and I've seen multiple pieces on riding US food costs affecting food banks and of course, individuals. This Justininflation stuff is ignorant of the reality of the situation. 

It is and it isn't. It is ignorant to suggest that government can't help offset inflation. Throwing your hands up in the air. keeping low interest rates, while increasing taxes, and doing nothing about a hyper inflated real estate market is not exactly great governmental financial policy. 

 

https://financialpost.com/opinion/the-bank-of-canada-needs-to-get-serious-about-inflation

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by GCn20

[rebusrankin]

Just now, GCn20 said:

It is and it isn't. It is ignorant to suggest that government can't help offset inflation. Throwing your hands up in the air. while increasing taxes, and doing nothing about a hyper inflated real estate market is not exactly great governmental policy. 

See but you're deflecting. Did I say governments can't do anything? No. I said, PP and his soundbites are childish and aren't a policy at all. Its the same thing as a kid name calling another kid on the playground. Has he offered a policy on dealing with inflation? Nope. He just repeats soundbites. Well, I guess his idea that crypto can get us out of inflation is a policy. Ignorant and not true but technically a policy. Look at everything he's said. He has yet to offer a policy on anything.