Hard Analysis: Is this THE year?

[BigBlue]

I am feeling good about yesterday's draft, not so much about what we did but rather about what we didn't do. Our picks seemed to reflect that we have most of our pieces in place and I can't remember that since the "Swaggerrville" year when  we last visited the Grey Cup. In fact we seem better now than then.

Now every spring some poster boldly predicts this is THE YEAR we are going to win the Grey Cup, but it is almost always based on emotion, "gut feel" and fond wishes.

Do we have any real facts supported by tough analysis that the Blue could actually bring the Cup back to River City this November?

Edited May 8, 2017 by BigBlue

[Nickthesizz]

I think you mean Swaggerville.

[BigBlue]

15 minutes ago, Gotmilt said:

I think you mean Swaggerville.

Thanks ... corrected

[Fatty Liver]

If the Bombers can win their seasonal series against the Stamps, Esks. and Lions anything is possible.  Until they can do that consistently they're middle of the pack contenders imo.  Key is Nichols stepping up into the elite QB category with improved red-zone performance and 2 or 3 dangerous receivers so that Medlock doesn't have to set scoring records to salvage victories.  Other improvements have to come from Hall's pass defence so that they're not giving up miles of uncontested real-estate.

[BBlink]

Question marks include defensive line and MLB. Think we addressed the line. We're hoping that Knox can take the MLB spot. The rest of the team I'm not seeing any holes. If Knox pans out I think we have a real good shot.

[GCn20]

Our defence is our biggest issue and I'm not sure I see where we have improved. Hopefully a few players surprise me.

[GCn20]

6 minutes ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

If the Bombers can win their seasonal series against the Stamps, Esks. and Lions anything is possible.  Until they can do that consistently they're middle of the pack contenders imo.  Key is Nichols stepping up into the elite QB category with improved red-zone performance and 2 or 3 dangerous receivers so that Medlock doesn't have to set scoring records to salvage victories.  Other improvements have to come from Hall's pass defence so that they're not giving up miles of uncontested real-estate.

Beat the East and you are a playoff team....beat the West and you are a contender.

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

If the Bombers can win their seasonal series against the Stamps, Esks. and Lions anything is possible.  Until they can do that consistently they're middle of the pack contenders imo.  Key is Nichols stepping up into the elite QB category with improved red-zone performance and 2 or 3 dangerous receivers so that Medlock doesn't have to set scoring records to salvage victories.  Other improvements have to come from Hall's pass defence so that they're not giving up miles of uncontested real-estate.

Nichols doesn't need to be elite, he needs to prove that he can maintain the efficiency that he displayed during our 7 game win streak over a full season. I don't think we want to ask him to produce more than that. 

Our D does need to take the next step though. We've remade the DLine again. They have to pressure opposing QBs and not let teams run up and down the field on us. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, gcn11 said:

Our defence is our biggest issue and I'm not sure I see where we have improved. Hopefully a few players surprise me.

Our DL should be improved. TO on the opposite side of JW should improve our pass D.

[Noeller]

Nichols is NEVER going to be elite. At his best, he can be Kevin Glenn, and that's fine. You can win with that, with the right pieces around him. We're as close as we've ever been, but winning the cup takes as much luck as it does talent, so we'll need some breaks along the way... 

[Fatty Liver]

28 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Nichols is NEVER going to be elite. At his best, he can be Kevin Glenn, and that's fine. You can win with that, with the right pieces around him. We're as close as we've ever been, but winning the cup takes as much luck as it does talent, so we'll need some breaks along the way... 

I disagree, if Nichols can put up a couple of 12+ win seasons, he will qualify as an "elite" QB.  Kevin Glenn has spent much of his long career struggling to achieve .500, not entirely his fault but that's how the cookie crumbles.

[Noeller]

Just now, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

I disagree, if Nichols can put up a couple of 12+ win seasons, he will qualify as an "elite" QB.  Kevin Glenn has spent much of his long career struggling to achieve .500, not entirely his fault but that's how the cookie crumbles.

Just as "a couple of 12+ win seasons" wouldn't be entirely Nichols doing. The both of them are upper-mid-level QBs who you can absolutely win games with, if you surround them with the right pieces. They're not going to be elite guys who win you games all on their own, a la BLM/Frito Ray/etc, but if you give them enough to work with, both (Glenn moreso 10 years ago) can definitely win and you can (could) win a GC with either...

[Fatty Liver]

6 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Just as "a couple of 12+ win seasons" wouldn't be entirely Nichols doing. The both of them are upper-mid-level QBs who you can absolutely win games with, if you surround them with the right pieces. They're not going to be elite guys who win you games all on their own, a la BLM/Frito Ray/etc, but if you give them enough to work with, both (Glenn moreso 10 years ago) can definitely win and you can (could) win a GC with either...

I don't buy the notion that BLM or Ray can produce victories on their own, throw them into a **** storm with no O-line and I think the results would be predictable.  QB's that can produce victories on their own may be limited to Collaros and Reilly when they're at the top of their game.....but I don't really buy that either, football is a team game.  A good team will make Nichols "look" like an elite QB.

[TrueBlue]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Our DL should be improved. TO on the opposite side of JW should improve our pass D.

Throw in a healthy dose of Drake Nevis and I think the D-line should be just fine this season.

[Bigblue204]

36 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Just as "a couple of 12+ win seasons" wouldn't be entirely Nichols doing. The both of them are upper-mid-level QBs who you can absolutely win games with, if you surround them with the right pieces. They're not going to be elite guys who win you games all on their own, a la BLM/Frito Ray/etc, but if you give them enough to work with, both (Glenn moreso 10 years ago) can definitely win and you can (could) win a GC with either...

Just a pet peeve of mine and off topic. But has BLM ever been on a team that wasn't already stacked? Not sure I've ever seen him win a game all on his own. He's had upper/elite team mates at the most important positions on O his entire career. I don't want to say he isn't elite, but I just can't remember him taking games over like other elite QB's. I donno, maybe I'm wrong.

[Blueandgold]

We've seen Ray struggle for an extended period of time in Edmonton, and that's when he was still in his prime. 

[Mark F]

2 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

If the Bombers can win their seasonal series against the Stamps, Esks. and Lions anything is possible.  Until they can do that consistently they're middle of the pack contenders imo.  Key is Nichols stepping up into the elite QB category with improved red-zone performance and 2 or 3 dangerous receivers so that Medlock doesn't have to set scoring records to salvage victories.  Other improvements have to come from Hall's pass defence so that they're not giving up miles of uncontested real-estate.

and stopping the run, being better than 9th ranked defence.

I don't have an opinion, but  a few posters  thought that Ian Wild dropped off a bit last season.

 

Edited May 8, 2017 by Mark F

[Floyd]

Could have a shot this year... only play Calgary twice and one of those games is the final game of the season so starters will be resting.

I'd say the three games against BC will really define the season.

Richie Hall's D is the weak link - teams can run against the bombers almost at will...  a lot will depend on the new MLB - was Bass the problem or the system?  I'd feel a lot better with Greg Jones on the roster... 

Maybe Westerman-Ekakitie-Nevis-Okpo are the front four that can make up for Hall's deficiencies...  but we said that about Sholo-Cummings too...

 

 

[DR. CFL]

4 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

If the Bombers can win their seasonal series against the Stamps, Esks. and Lions anything is possible.  Until they can do that consistently they're middle of the pack contenders imo.  Key is Nichols stepping up into the elite QB category with improved red-zone performance and 2 or 3 dangerous receivers so that Medlock doesn't have to set scoring records to salvage victories.  Other improvements have to come from Hall's pass defence so that they're not giving up miles of uncontested real-estate.

Well stated. .......I think the bigger issue with the defence is a greater pressure on opposing QBs from the front 7

[wbbfan]

2 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

I disagree, if Nichols can put up a couple of 12+ win seasons, he will qualify as an "elite" QB.  Kevin Glenn has spent much of his long career struggling to achieve .500, not entirely his fault but that's how the cookie crumbles.

Generic win totals isnt what makes a qb elite. If you carry a team to wins sure can. But weve seen average qbs on teams rack up a lot of wins thanks to elite level D. Sustaining elite level qb play makes you an elite QB. If you have to ask, or make a case for a QB being elite, they almost certainly are not. Every fan in the league knows reily, and BLM are elite right now. Early 2ks, same with AC and khari. Then ray and AC. Etc. 

Does nichols have the potential to be an elite qb? I think any qb thats a bonafide starter in the league has that potential. Its a question of do they have the ability to realize that potential. The system we run isnt keen on any qb maximizing potential imop. But we do have the supporting cast on offense. I dont think nichols chance of continuing to evolve and taking that next step is terribly high. But it certainly exists. I think his performance floor with what we have is pretty high. 

Here is hoping that either im wrong, or nichols defies those odds and takes the next step this year. 

2 hours ago, Floyd said:

Could have a shot this year... only play Calgary twice and one of those games is the final game of the season so starters will be resting.

I'd say the three games against BC will really define the season.

Richie Hall's D is the weak link - teams can run against the bombers almost at will...  a lot will depend on the new MLB - was Bass the problem or the system?  I'd feel a lot better with Greg Jones on the roster... 

Maybe Westerman-Ekakitie-Nevis-Okpo are the front four that can make up for Hall's deficiencies...  but we said that about Sholo-Cummings too...

 

 

I think the passive systems on both side of the ball will be limiting factors to how high we can rise. I think our run stopping will be worlds better this year. We can now roll out 2 huge bodies at DT and really clog up the middle. Instead of having 2 lbers playing out of position we should have a ton more fit now. I think the difference between last years DL and this years is 1, size up the middle which is good for shutting down the run. 2 a dt that can play nose. 3 a pair of proven cfl rush ends. And finally depth. I do wish we had 1 big body lber we could put in on run plays to stuff the middle though.

[Jacquie]

Without analyzing everything, I'm quite optimistic because this team has the most heart and best chemistry I've seen in years. 

 

6 hours ago, BigBlue said:

I am feeling good about yesterday's draft, not so much about what we did but rather about what we didn't do. Our picks seemed to reflect that we have most of our pieces in place and I can't remember that since the "Swaggerrville" year when  we last visited the Grey Cup. In fact we seem better now than then.

Swaggerville is spelled incorrectly - only one "r".

[Nolby]

6 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

If the Bombers can win their seasonal series against the Stamps, Esks. and Lions anything is possible.  Until they can do that consistently they're middle of the pack contenders imo.  Key is Nichols stepping up into the elite QB category with improved red-zone performance and 2 or 3 dangerous receivers so that Medlock doesn't have to set scoring records to salvage victories.  Other improvements have to come from Hall's pass defence so that they're not giving up miles of uncontested real-estate.

The lack of a serious dline played a huge part in why qbs had so much time to go deep or to have receivers open up. Walter's seems to have addressed that issue and if it doesn't change then Hall is gone.

[Atomic]

14 hours ago, Nolby said:

The lack of a serious dline played a huge part in why qbs had so much time to go deep or to have receivers open up. Walter's seems to have addressed that issue and if it doesn't change then Hall is gone.

I'll believe it when I see it.... last year Cummings and Shologan were supposed to fix the dline and it didn't happen.  This year it's Thomas/Ekakitie, Nevis, and Okpalaugo.  Hoping for the best...

[Bigblue204]

7 minutes ago, Atomic said:

I'll believe it when I see it.... last year Cummings and Shologan were supposed to fix the dline and it didn't happen.  This year it's Thomas/Ekakitie, Nevis, and Okpalaugo.  Hoping for the best...

I have a lot of expectations for him this year. Hoping our ends provide some serious pressure and are amongst the best in the league.

[wbbfan]

46 minutes ago, Bigblue204 said:

I have a lot of expectations for him this year. Hoping our ends provide some serious pressure and are amongst the best in the league.

same. 

 

1 hour ago, Atomic said:

I'll believe it when I see it.... last year Cummings and Shologan were supposed to fix the dline and it didn't happen.  This year it's Thomas/Ekakitie, Nevis, and Okpalaugo.  Hoping for the best...

The difference this year is our DL doesnt have a hole. We have the ability to rotate 2 big guys in the middle, 2 proven pass rushers off the edge, plus jake the snake and corney the super freak. If the DL under performs this year its time for firings on D. Also having a proper MLB will help. I expect we will have less raw talent as a LB core this year from last, but a much better fit.