Hard Analysis: Is this THE year?

[Fatty Liver]

26 minutes ago, DR. CFL said:

Gee hey Mikie......can 8 other teams borrow that quote......or is it yours to sell?

 

O'Shea's cliche response: "How would you like me to shatter your ******* spine???"

[Tracker]

Just now, 17to85 said:

He knows a thing or two about winning, if that was ever a concern.

I was actually hoping he had several ideas along that line.

[Atomic]

He's been a part of how many championship teams in the CFL?  5?  I think he's probably got the general idea

[wbbfan]

2 hours ago, johnzo said:

Nicholls has had some gruesome injuries -- the dude has definitely seen his share of punishment.

Not on the level of punishments glenn has seen. or buck thankfully. Remember how  young glenn came to the league, how quick he was starting behind a shakey at best OL and hes allways been the short yardage guy. 

[IC Khari]

56 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

Not on the level of punishments glenn has seen. or buck thankfully. Remember how  young glenn came to the league, how quick he was starting behind a shakey at best OL and hes allways been the short yardage guy. 

Huh, doesn't look fun?

 

[do or die]

Is Nichols elite........well, no.

But he has shown the moxie to reboot his career after some horrible setbacks.  Nichols has also shown he can operate the Lapo O quite efficiently, with good decision making and a minimum of mistakes.    His teammates also seem to respond to his leadership, as well.  

The sum may be greater than his parts.....

 

[Jpan85]

Think a Nichols season of 4500 25+ td 10 int would be reasonable expectation.

[IC Khari]

Not elite yet, but he's in the right system with some good pieces in place ... let's hope that trend improves even more this season!

[CodyT]

I think, that if we can stay healthy, and become a tad more consistent defensively this could be the year. Feels good to say, but then again I say this ever year ?

 

Cubs curse came to an end, why not us !

[DR. CFL]

For all those that can't get enough sports cliches.......count the number of " you knows " in an interview and lighten up it's still May......all so serious

[wbbfan]

58 minutes ago, Jpan85 said:

Think a Nichols season of 4500 25+ td 10 int would be reasonable expectation.

I dont see his td - int ratio staying that good. I could see 4k-4500 20-25 tds but 15+ ints over a healthy season on his up side. 

[Floyd]

21 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

I dont see his td - int ratio staying that good. I could see 4k-4500 20-25 tds but 15+ ints over a healthy season on his up side. 

20-25 TD and 15+ INTs means he's not starting QB material.

2:1 TD-INT ratio is about the minimum... 

[wbbfan]

1 hour ago, Floyd said:

20-25 TD and 15+ INTs means he's not starting QB material.

2:1 TD-INT ratio is about the minimum... 

no it isnt. it isnt even the standard for elite qbs. Its a gold standard in the nfl, not in the cfl. Last year was the only year mike reily ever had 2:1 td to int ratio. Jennings hasnt gotten to 2:1 in either year. Harris in ott in 15 didnt get to 2:1. Hank only hit 2:1 a few times in his career. Khari jones never got to a 2:1 ratio either. Ricky ray has only done 2:1 once while playing more then 13 games. 

[Floyd]

50 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

no it isnt. it isnt even the standard for elite qbs. Its a gold standard in the nfl, not in the cfl. Last year was the only year mike reily ever had 2:1 td to int ratio. Jennings hasnt gotten to 2:1 in either year. Harris in ott in 15 didnt get to 2:1. Hank only hit 2:1 a few times in his career. Khari jones never got to a 2:1 ratio either. Ricky ray has only done 2:1 once while playing more then 13 games. 

Hank/Frank does not win the grey cup without Harris playing half the season - together they have 2:1 ratio

Reilly had a 2:1 ratio in 2015 reg season/playoffs

BLM always has a great ratio and did in 2014

Durant had 2:1 ratio in 2013

Ray is 2:1 in  reg season/playoffs in 2012

Lulay and Calvillo had massive ratios when they won the cup

Its not the be all end all but 15+ INTs basically means no grey cup.  

[wbbfan]

1 hour ago, Floyd said:

Hank/Frank does not win the grey cup without Harris playing half the season - together they have 2:1 ratio

Reilly had a 2:1 ratio in 2015 reg season/playoffs

BLM always has a great ratio and did in 2014

Durant had 2:1 ratio in 2013

Ray is 2:1 in  reg season/playoffs in 2012

Lulay and Calvillo had massive ratios when they won the cup

Its not the be all end all but 15+ INTs basically means no grey cup.  

How long was hank and rays career? You are looking at tiny sample sizes and throwing away the meta. Both are HOF qbers. Starter>elite>HOF

BLM is elite of the elite. Flutie esq. 

Again, small sample size of durant vs his career and he didnt play 18 games in 2013.

Career numbers TD/int

Doug Flutie 270/155 His 2 years in toronto? both under 2:1 tds in the regular season. And that was some of the best QBing the league has ever seen. 

warren moon 144/77

Reilly 88/53

Durant 152/99

Hank 374/227

Ray 298/165

khari 145/104

dunigan 306/211

damon allen 394/278

danny mac 259/281

calvillo 449/219 is one of the very, very few with a 2:1 or better in his career. Which combined with his pre als era numbers only serves to magnify how great he and those als offenses were. They still only won it 3 times over his 15 year career there. 

Nichols + reilly in 2015 threw 20 picks in the regular season for edm and they won the GC.  If you want to count play off numbers, and the games the starters dont start youre looking at 15+ for the GC winner nearly every year. 

The more TDs you put up, the more ints you can get away with. A guy putting up 40 tds and 1.5:1 tds to ints is gonna give you a better chance to win then a guy with a 2:1 scoring 25 or less tds. BUT your point was STARTER. When its clearly not even true of elite qbs.

Edited May 10, 2017 by wbbfan

[IC Khari]

On 5/8/2017 at 5:04 PM, Jacquie said:

Without analyzing everything, I'm quite optimistic because this team has the most heart and best chemistry I've seen in years. 

 

Swaggerville is spelled incorrectly - only one "r".

I spell Swaggerville "H-o-t-d-o-g-g-e-r" ...

Edited May 10, 2017 by IC Khari

[Atomic]

5 hours ago, wbbfan said:

The more TDs you put up, the more ints you can get away with. A guy putting up 40 tds and 1.5:1 tds to ints is gonna give you a better chance to win then a guy with a 2:1 scoring 25 or less tds. BUT your point was STARTER. When its clearly not even true of elite qbs.

40 TDs?!?  Been awhile since we've seen that.  Can you imagine if our offence was that potent this year?  Oh my I'm getting all excited and it's only 8:30 am

[Brandon]

My expectations of our offense is much lower then 40 TD - 0 Ints kind of dream land. 

I fully expect that our offense will kick a bunch of points and Nichols I think is closer to the 25 TD  - 17 Ints kind of numbers.   

The thing I like about Nichols is that he is the guy unlike Glenn who even after getting hit,  would be able to put together a game winning drive late in the 4th quarter.

Edited May 10, 2017 by Brandon

[Noeller]

23 minutes ago, Brandon said:

My expectations of our offense is much lower then 40 TD - 0 Ints kind of dream land. 

I fully expect that our offense will kick a bunch of points and Nichols I think is closer to the 25 TD  - 17 Ints kind of numbers.   

The thing I like about Nichols is that he is the guy unlike Glenn who even after getting hit,  would be able to put together a game winning drive late in the 4th quarter.

that's a really good and fair point...I think I agree with that...

[do or die]

Khari Jones threw plenty of picks.....but also a mess of TDs.    We were also winning games.    Methodology is different from say, a Nichols....but the bottom line is simply getting it done, and leading the team to wins.   Believe Nichols can do that.

.....and compared to what we have had around here for a while.....is pretty good.

Edited May 10, 2017 by do or die

[Noeller]

More from yesterday's conference call:

http://www.bluebombers.com/2017/05/09/season-preview-2/

"To hint that we’re anywhere close to where we need to be or that we’re happy with it, is false.”

[wbbfan]

3 hours ago, Atomic said:

40 TDs?!?  Been awhile since we've seen that.  Can you imagine if our offence was that potent this year?  Oh my I'm getting all excited and it's only 8:30 am

No joke. Its almost FOOOOOOTTTBAAALLLLLL season!

2 hours ago, Noeller said:

that's a really good and fair point...I think I agree with that...

Yeah thats the truth. Doesnt matter what happens the rest of the game when it gets down to the crunch a different nichols comes out.

 

[Floyd]

9 hours ago, wbbfan said:

Nichols + reilly in 2015 threw 20 picks in the regular season for edm and they won the GC.  If you want to count play off numbers, and the games the starters dont start youre looking at 15+ for the GC winner nearly every year. 

The more TDs you put up, the more ints you can get away with. A guy putting up 40 tds and 1.5:1 tds to ints is gonna give you a better chance to win then a guy with a 2:1 scoring 25 or less tds. BUT your point was STARTER. When its clearly not even true of elite qbs.

Considering Nichols was traded as soon as Reilly was healthy... I wouldn't put them in the same 1-1a category as Burris-Harris

Reilly threw 19-20 TDs and 10 INT in that season.

And yes obviously throwing 40 TDs a season is going to help... and running for TDs has a fairly major impact on stats - i.e. Flutie, Reilly, 

My point remains 20-25 TDs and 15+ INTs is not starter quality.

[wbbfan]

10 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Considering Nichols was traded as soon as Reilly was healthy... I wouldn't put them in the same 1-1a category as Burris-Harris

Reilly threw 19-20 TDs and 10 INT in that season.

And yes obviously throwing 40 TDs a season is going to help... and running for TDs has a fairly major impact on stats - i.e. Flutie, Reilly, 

My point remains 20-25 TDs and 15+ INTs is not starter quality.

They still played those games and went what? 5-2?

You should call danny mac and tell him then i guess. And all those hof qbs too.

[Atomic]

Acceptable TD:INT ratio in the CFL has changed a lot over the last 10-15 years.  Now we're seeing guys with a 4:1 ratio in some cases.  Even the middle-of-the-pack starters last year put up 2:1 ratios... Nichols, Durant, Collaros...