Prognosticators: Us - Part 2

[BigBlue]

Now that we have all seen one real game, let's take a moment and revise our predictions for this season, just in case any of us need to save face or develop our ego:

Mine

Winnipeg 13 - 5

Calgary 11-6-1

Edmonton 11-7

Vancouver 10-8

Ottawa 8-9-1

Toronto 8-10

Montreal 6-12

Regina 5-13

Hamilton 3-15

The wild card to all this is which QBs will be injured for how long: Winnipeg & Edmonton followed by Ottawa have the best depth but that could be debated

Winnipeg IMHO will be amongst the most improved teams in the league ... the games we will lose will be about Sam Hurl and defensive coaching decisions ... we will do well this year because we have improved an already decent team showing up with better depth and maturity

Calgary doesn't have quite as much talent as last year but they still have a lot ... and Messam is better .... Bo Levi Mitchell will have to face his ego .... Calgary has been on a roll for a long time and every once in a while your luck runs out

Edmonton carries over a lot of talent and has new stuff .... still a few holes and the loss of Sherritt is massive .... a top 3 contender

I would rank Vancouver and Ottawa as the next most talented  .... with QBing not as good as expected: maturity woes but definitely not awful

Toronto is going to be the most improved team in the league because of talent assembly and coaching ... no depth at QB is what will keep them mediocre ... if anyone can over achieve this year its Trestman

Montreal has improved its QBing but its central core seems to be past its prime date ... the transition to new talent will be a process

In Regina Jones's scissors and duct tape will get them some wins against over confident rivals .... somehow Jones provides enough hope to keep his job another year

Hamilton has not done enough to improve its talent  base .... management could lose faith in Austin and fire him after Collaros disappoints

Another charming season ahead for all of us gurus

[Booch]

WEST

12-5-1 CGY

12-6 WPG

12-6 BC

10-8 EDM

4-14 SSK

EAST

10-7-1 OTT

10-8 TO

8-10 MTL

6-12 HAM

 

Edited June 26, 2017 by Booch

[JCon]

Don't overact to what happens in the first week.

[Noeller]

26 minutes ago, JCon said:

Don't overact to what happens in the first week.

I remember the first time I heard one of the talking heads say "You don't really know how the CFL season is going to go until Labour Day" when I was a kid, and I always remembered that. Truer words never spoken...

[bearpants]

1 hour ago, Booch said:

WEST

12-5-1 CGY

12-6 WPG

12-6 BC

10-8 EDM

4-14 SSK

EAST

10-7-1 OTT

10-8 TO

8-10 MTL

6-12 HAM

 

that's really ballsy to predict a tie.... 

[Booch]

hahaha....my first version didn't account for it...forgot they tied

[BigBlue]

2 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I remember the first time I heard one of the talking heads say "You don't really know how the CFL season is going to go until Labour Day" when I was a kid, and I always remembered that. Truer words never spoken...

Remember this isn't a "knowing" thread, its a forecast thread .... the ability to make a best guess prediction with some judgment and acumen

[17to85]

General rule of thumb in the CFL, first 2 weeks of the season are still glorified preseason. 

[Tracker]

53 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

General rule of thumb in the CFL, first 2 weeks of the season are still glorified preseason. 

That said, a stomping of the Riders this weekend is mandatory or we will never hear the end of it from Ripper and Kluchk.

[17to85]

34 minutes ago, tracker said:

That said, a stomping of the Riders this weekend is mandatory or we will never hear the end of it from Ripper and Kluchk.

It's pretty much mandatory anyway, preseason, regular season, playoffs you never want a loss to those assholes. 

[Tracker]

Gotta set the tone for the season

[TrueBlue4ever]

My original picks were:

BC 13-5

Calgary 13-5 (2nd)

Edmonton 10-8

Winnipeg 10-8 (4th)

Saskatchewan 3-15

Hamilton 11-7

Ottawa 8-10

Montreal 7-11

Toronto 6-12

 

After week 1 I see no need to change that order, those were my picks and right or wrong it is goofy to change them after week 1. If we are allowed to adjust our rankings based on a do-over after seeing the teams play, I reserve the right to re-visit my picks after week 18.

However, some general thoughts about things I may have underappreciated in my original analysis before this past week:

BC - still think their offence will be scary good, and they will play in a few 45-40 games, but if they do not get a better showing from their o-line, Jennings may not have the steamboats to have the MOP season I predicted. He was pressured a ridiculous 51% of his plays last game. Losing Olafioye may be a bigger loss than I imagined it would be. But with Wally as your coach, the defence could easily be repaired and be a force by season's end. This team may be like the 2011 team that started badly but was a juggernaut by season's end.

Calgary - Looked out of sorts for 3 quarters, then blew it in OT to settle for the tie. Still an excellent football team, just won't be as good as last year. Their season will be solely judged on what happens in the playoffs. And I think it may be more that Ottawa matches well against them and is in their heads rather than a regression as a whole.

Edmonton - I wasn't sure if we'd get good Edm. or bad Edm. this year. The first game suggests more than just good, and if those receivers not named Bowman do all year what they did in week 1, this might be the offence all teams fear. However, losing Sherritt (any word if it is season-ending yet? Sure looked that way - EDIT: Yep, done for the year) on top of the pre-season loss of Greenwood and that LB position looks vulnerable, so they may still be a near .500 team if they can't patch that defensive hole.

Winnipeg - I don't think a win in Saskatchewan means they'll do better than the 10-8 I have them pegged for, or a loss means they'll do worse. So no reason for me to change my view of them or my concerns about the defensive side of the ball yet. I shudder to think how likely it could be that they lose in Regina on Saturday (on paper they are more talented and the 'Riders did nothing to show me they are going to be strong this year, but is anyone shocked if the Bombers don't lay an egg in front of an emotional Mosaic crowd yet again, and the stadium opener will have the same feel as Labour Day I'll bet, so watch out) 

Saskatchewan - So Kevin Glenn looked better than I thought he might, and maybe saying 3 wins was low-balling it, but they still did lose, and did not look great for long stretches despite giving away a game they should have one if not for their crap(igna) kicker. They may be a hard-luck team in some ways this year, but I sense a mutiny both among the fans and the players if Jones gets out to an 0-3, 0-4 start, and the year will be lost early.

Hamilton - Don't hurt your ankles jumping off the bandwagon, folks. One loss, and now they are going to be in the 3-15 to 6-12 range?? I don't think so folks. However, the injury bug has struck again, and that  o-line gave Collaros no time far too often (and he played the short passing game too much - looked like Ricky Ray mentality for a QB who loved stretching defences with the quick long strike in the past). So maybe I'll dial back the 11-7 pick, but still think they can be the best in the east this year.

Ottawa - Not sure if this is really how good the team is, or if Calgary just brings the best out of them. The rematch in Cowtown may temper people's enthusiasm about them. Not ready to give them credit for being a better than .500 team yet, but this might be the team that I have flipped my opinion by week 5 if they play more games like last week.

Montreal - Played just like I suspected - not well, but got a win. And they will surprise teams early and have a better record than their play. And it will catch up to them by mid-season (that was my take before, and I'll stand by it now). If anything, I may have over-estimated Darian Durant's ability if game 1 is an indication. He did not look that good (certainly not good enough to talk trash at the Sask. bench after an undeserved win). I may have been mistaken giving them 3rd in the East. THIS JUST IN: They signed Drew Willy today, and that just reinforces how mediocre I think they are rather than improves their their roster depth.

Toronto - OK, this team has driven me nuts for years in my football pool, and they continue to do so. I even joked when picking the Tabbies this weekend "Now watch Toronto do something stupid like win 38-14 and get me overconfident and believing in them going forward, then they'll lose 4 out of 5." When I think they should win, they lose, when I think they should lose, they win, and when I change my pick at the last minute to compensate for my initial thoughts which are always wrong, they go ahead and punish me for changing that pick by doing what I thought they'd do in the first place. But Mark Trestman has a way with veteran QB's and no way I thought Ray had half the game in him that he showed on Sunday. And the score should have been much, much higher but for those end zone drops, but those receivers looked really good otherwise. And no way I saw that defence performing the way they did with all those blitzes. So if I'm going to make one knee-jerk reaction and flip-flop after one game, this team would be the one to do it on. Maybe they can challenge for a playoff spot and wreck the crossover prediction I had. But I'll hold off on that until at least week 4.

Edited June 26, 2017 by TrueBlue4ever

[wbbfan]

2 hours ago, 17to85 said:

General rule of thumb in the CFL, first 2 weeks of the season are still glorified preseason. 

atleast maybe more. 

[TheSource]

5 hours ago, BigBlue said:

Now that we have all seen one real game, let's take a moment and revise our predictions for this season, just in case any of us need to save face or develop our ego:

Mine

Winnipeg 13 - 5

Calgary 11-6-1

Edmonton 11-7

Vancouver 10-8

Ottawa 8-9-1

Toronto 8-10

Montreal 6-12

Regina 5-13

Hamilton 3-15

The wild card to all this is which QBs will be injured for how long: Winnipeg & Edmonton followed by Ottawa have the best depth but that could be debated

Winnipeg IMHO will be amongst the most improved teams in the league ... the games we will lose will be about Sam Hurl and defensive coaching decisions ... we will do well this year because we have improved an already decent team showing up with better depth and maturity

Calgary doesn't have quite as much talent as last year but they still have a lot ... and Messam is better .... Bo Levi Mitchell will have to face his ego .... Calgary has been on a roll for a long time and every once in a while your luck runs out

Edmonton carries over a lot of talent and has new stuff .... still a few holes and the loss of Sherritt is massive .... a top 3 contender

I would rank Vancouver and Ottawa as the next most talented  .... with QBing not as good as expected: maturity woes but definitely not awful

Toronto is going to be the most improved team in the league because of talent assembly and coaching ... no depth at QB is what will keep them mediocre ... if anyone can over achieve this year its Trestman

Montreal has improved its QBing but its central core seems to be past its prime date ... the transition to new talent will be a process

In Regina Jones's scissors and duct tape will get them some wins against over confident rivals .... somehow Jones provides enough hope to keep his job another year

Hamilton has not done enough to improve its talent  base .... management could lose faith in Austin and fire him after Collaros disappoints

Another charming season ahead for all of us gurus

 

I'm just curious, you have the Bombers well ahead of all the competition here. How do you see that happening when they give up an average of 24 points a game and only score an average of 27 points a game? Calgary only gives up 20 points a game and scores 33 points a game and you know they are consistent year after year. How would they possibly finish 2 games behind the Bombers? Are you just being optimistic or do you see some secret weapon being unveiled that has not been tested so far in preseason? Based on the progress that the rest of the teams have been making every off season, most pundits who are in the know are picking Bombers to finish 4th in the West at best and 6th or 7th overall.

 

[WBBFanWest]

9 minutes ago, TheSource said:

 

I'm just curious, you have the Bombers well ahead of all the competition here. How do you see that happening when they give up an average of 24 points a game and only score an average of 27 points a game? Calgary only gives up 20 points a game and scores 33 points a game and you know they are consistent year after year. How would they possibly finish 2 games behind the Bombers? Are you just being optimistic or do you see some secret weapon being unveiled that has not been tested so far in preseason? Based on the progress that the rest of the teams have been making every off season, most pundits who are in the know are picking Bombers to finish 4th in the West at best and 6th or 7th overall.

 

These are the same "pundits" that have Saskatchewan winning 10 games, so...

[Goalie]

54 minutes ago, TheSource said:

 

I'm just curious, you have the Bombers well ahead of all the competition here. How do you see that happening when they give up an average of 24 points a game and only score an average of 27 points a game? Calgary only gives up 20 points a game and scores 33 points a game and you know they are consistent year after year. How would they possibly finish 2 games behind the Bombers? Are you just being optimistic or do you see some secret weapon being unveiled that has not been tested so far in preseason? Based on the progress that the rest of the teams have been making every off season, most pundits who are in the know are picking Bombers to finish 4th in the West at best and 6th or 7th overall.

 

Those Pundits? Same ones who had sorenson over bond on the top 50 list and no dressler or westerman. Those Pundits just like to kiss your green asses and truly they know very little. If weak yeah weak 1 was any indication... Id say riders are in for a repeat of last year.. They just find ways to lose. Good teams dont do that. 

Edited June 27, 2017 by Goalie

[Eternal optimist]

8 hours ago, Noeller said:

I remember the first time I heard one of the talking heads say "You don't really know how the CFL season is going to go until Labour Day" when I was a kid, and I always remembered that. Truer words never spoken...

Exhibit A: 2014 Winnipeg Blue Bombers

 

That said, I think we'll do alright this year.

[Mike]

13 hours ago, TheSource said:

 

I'm just curious, you have the Bombers well ahead of all the competition here. How do you see that happening when they give up an average of 24 points a game and only score an average of 27 points a game? Calgary only gives up 20 points a game and scores 33 points a game and you know they are consistent year after year. How would they possibly finish 2 games behind the Bombers? Are you just being optimistic or do you see some secret weapon being unveiled that has not been tested so far in preseason? Based on the progress that the rest of the teams have been making every off season, most pundits who are in the know are picking Bombers to finish 4th in the West at best and 6th or 7th overall.

 

I'm just curious, how on Earth do you think for a minute that we don't finish ahead of Calgary? How do you see that happening when they give up an average of 0 points a game in 2017? Calgary gives up 31 points a game and scores 31 points a game and you know they are consistent year after year. How would they even finish 2 games behind the Bombers if they're going to just tie every single game?

[Atomic]

TheSource is a Rider fan

[Booch]

Yeah I wouldn't base a defence off of last year stats...for any team truth be told.

I also wouldn't base a team on what was viewed in pre-season either as nothing is as it was seen then...and now when the lights go on.

I will stand by my statements earlier that we will be in top 2 teams for points allowed this year, and our offence is going to produce over 18 games more points than it did last year, and win TOP battle most games.

So from my experience more points scored than given up, top 2-3 in points given up in league, winning the TOP during games, works out to double digit wins at worst.

I could care less if we give up 300+ yards passing a game if we are winning. My only concern/want is a defense in later stages of a game controlling things and not giving up long back breaking drives in the 4th quarter making games closer than they should be, and I think this year we are going to be fresher going into 4th quarter on defense because our offence is going to be controlling the clock and staying on the field longer

[bearpants]

36 minutes ago, Atomic said:

TheSource is a Rider fan

As soon as I saw a new guy called "The Source" with a Mike Kelly avatar... I knew he had to be a troll of some sort...

But I'll wait to see how this plays out...

[Atomic]

13 minutes ago, bearpants said:

As soon as I saw a new guy called "The Source" with a Mike Kelly avatar... I knew he had to be a troll of some sort...

But I'll wait to see how this plays out...

Haha I'm just kidding.  But definitely a very trolly name and avatar  

[Noeller]

I actually wondered if it was Kelly himself at first... 

[17to85]

2 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I actually wondered if it was Kelly himself at first... 

probably would have been more swearing and insults if that were the case

[Guest J5V]

9 hours ago, Atomic said:

TheSource is a Rider fan

Yathink?