CFL mid-season review, re-assessment

[TrueBlue4ever]

 

With teams hitting the 9 game mark, thought it might be a good time to review some pre-season predictions and re-assess them, and gaze into the crystal ball again with half a season of backing to shape those guesses. Included for your amusement/my shame are my pre-season prognostications. Will start with the 3 teams already at 9 for now, then do 4 more later after this week's games are played, and the final 2 after week 11. 

BC:

What I said then - "Scary good offence this year with Chris Williams added to the receiving mix and three deadly return specialists. Jennings is the ridiculously early pick for league MOP. Could see a few 45-40 games from them. But Wally will have their defence prepared too. Bit of a gut pick but I say 13-5 and first."

How did I do? - OK, so they still could go 8-1 and I hit my prediction, but I overshot on this pick a bit, and with 4 games against Calgary, Edmonton and the Bombers left in the second half, they will need to step up their game to finish first, especially having lost the series to the Esks (and the Riders, for that matter) already .  The injury to Jennings has stalled their offence a bit (but only since his return). Did get that 45-40 score pretty much right, though, thanks to the Bomber game. 

Win they'll savour - that comeback win against the Blue and Gold keeps them in the mix in the wild West. 

Loss they'll lament - losing both to Edmonton hurts their chances at top spot, but the beatdown in Riderville is the kind of loss you can't afford if you want to run with the big dogs.

They make the playoffs - if they sweep the Bombers or stay ahead of the Riders, and continue their dominance against the East, whom they have the majority of their remaining games against. 

They don't - if the Bombers sweep them and the Riders play more games like the second match vs the Lions

Looking forward -  I picked them to win the Grey Cup, and if the playoffs started today they would have the easiest road they could ask for, at least to get to the big game. Maybe 4th is preferable to 1st?

Ottawa: 

What I said then - "I really like Trevor Harris at QB, and thought the team might have actually been better with him at QB if you took Henry Burris' shoulder chip out of the equation, but his offence around him has been dismantled a bit. And lest we forget they were a losing team last year going in to the playoffs who needed a blizzard to beat the Esks and stupid play-calling by Dave Dickenson (down by 3, 2nd and goal from the 1 with one minute left and you take out Bo Levi to run a 3rd string QB option and don't hand off to Messam???? That's worse than Pete Carroll) to win the Grey Cup. Regression. 8-10."

How did I do? -  better than their current record might suggest. They had the most brutal schedule you could ask for (3 games in 11 days, Calgary back-to-back to start, Eskies twice, and Bombers).  West games make up 4 of their 6 losses, but a pair dropped to the Argos may keep them out of 1st. Still, Harris looks strong. 

Win they'll savour - The Als win was needed, the Cats win was necessary, but maybe the opening day tie against the Stamps is the one they hang their hats on to say "we can compete with the best, so let's get back to that level".

Loss they'll lament - the first Argo loss at home (25 points given up in the second half after a 1 point defensive effort in the first, and blown convert and FG) set the template for all the close losses to follow. 

They make the playoffs - if they make hay against the East in the second half, the rest of the offence matches Harris' numbers, and the defence and kickimg especially improve. 

They don't - if they play the games against Montreal like they played against Hamilton. 

Looking forward - still a brutal schedule (byes in week 18 and 20, who OK'd this season's lineup of games?) but 6  games vs the East or Riders give them a reprieve. Still on pace for a losing record and second place standing. 

Toronto:

What I said then - "Love the coaching and GM hire, but this will take time, and time is the one luxury they don't have in a market that has them ranked behind (in order) the Leafs, Jays, Raptors, NFL in general, the Bills in particular, Toronto FC, and quite possibly the Rock lacrosse team, not to mention any other cultural event like rock concerts. And Ricky Ray's first season magic is not there, even if he stays healthy. Let the annual gnashing of teeth begin about how the CFL will die without its flagship franchise being able to draw fans. 6-12."

How did I do? - well, there current record would suggest much better than 6-12, they are on pace for first, not last, and in my biggest oops, Ricky Ray has definitely rediscovered his first year Argo magic and then some, even with an injury. But before I concede that I completely blew this pick, they still draw flies, they still have a sub-.500 record despite an East-heavy schedule, and read the "looking forward" section. 

Win they'll savour - the opening week dismantling of Hamilton set the tone for 2 franchises. 

Loss they'll lament - a lazy loss in Saskatchewan (looking at you, Johnny Sears) has kept them from pulling away in the East. 

They make the playoffs - becuase they hold off the RedBlacks, who they already have a pair of wins against and a 2.5 game cushion on, and because the Ticats suck. 

They don't - if the second half schedule turns out as badly as the first half East vs. West tendancies suggest it might. 

Looking forward - that schedule. 7 of 9 against the West, with 4 of those against the Alberta juggernaut, and maybe 6-12 isn't a pipe dream. Still could be good enough for tops in the East, though. 

 

Edited August 25, 2017 by TrueBlue4ever

[BigBlue]

3 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Jennings is the ridiculously early pick for league MOP.

Jennings is a gunslinger .... TD to interception ratio has been ugly and will continue .... Lulay if healthy is better but I expect his "fragile" label to stick ... if Lulay   is used as an off the bench game saving savior BC could go places

Otherwise with Jennings its going to be like Clint Eastwood asked: "Are you feeling lucky?"

[TrueBlue4ever]

Yeah, Jennings as MOP was based on him using his legs and arm with that obscene receiving corps, but he has been uneven, and that injury will set him back a bit more. But if they do wind up in the crossover spot, would there be a more dangerous team, and more mercurial QB who could find that next level in the big game?

 

[BigBlue]

9 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

would there be a more ... more mercurial QB

Sounds more like infatuation than genuine judgment to me

[TrueBlue4ever]

20 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

 

With teams hitting the 9 game mark, thought it might be a good time to review some pre-season predictions and re-assess them, and gaze into the crystal ball again with half a season of backing to shape those guesses. Included for your amusement/my shame are my pre-season prognostications. Will start with the 3 teams already at 9 for now, then do 4 more later after this week's games are played, and the final 2 after week 11. 

 

Re-assessment continued:

Winnipeg:

What I said then - "Lots to be excited for as a Bomber fan, but the bar has been so low the last decade that 2 straight winning seasons qualifies for a parade in these parts at this point (which is kind of sad when you think about it). Nicholls showed he can win games (10-3 as a starter is an overlooked stat by many) but except for the division semi against BC, his passing numbers didn't jump off the page. Good game manager, and Winnipeg's run game may be the best in the CFL this year with that o-line and the Harris-Flanders combo. And that undersized receiving corps can still make plays. But about that defence ..... so we brought in two d-lineman with big sack numbers to bring more pressure - sounds like a carbon copy of last year. And Mo Leggett may be hurt to start the year, so the same problems could arise at linebacker. Hurl was not good enough 2 years ago and got bumped by Bass, why would he be an upgrade now? Bottom line, unless Richie Hall's "rush only 4 every time and bend don't break" schemes don't change, I have little hope that our overall defence will look better than last year. And don't know how Medlock can improve on last year's performance which was the difference between winning and losing in at least a half dozen games. They'll do OK, maybe be even pretty good, but the West is so stacked I think it adds up to 4th spot. Hope to be proven wrong. 10-8."

How did I do? - The 7-2 record suggests that this team is better than I gave them credit for, and I don't look at the close wins and say they are lucky to have as many wins as they do. That Montreal miracle is offset by the gassed lead in BC, so 7-2 feels legitimate rather than fortunate for this bunch, if you get my drift,=. And the receiving corps isn't so undersized anymore with Dressler out, Adams exploiting his height on jump balls,  and Thorpe in and pounding bodies for impressive YAC yards (is YAC yards redundant?). But I think I nailed the running game, o-line, and "Nicholls is a winner without gaudy numbers" positives, although I am surprised at how many points this offence puts up. And I don't think any of my concerns about the defence have really been quieted yet, and Medlock has in fact done worse statistically than last year, percentage-wise. Still, 10-8 may likely be a low prediction at year's end, and yet they sit 3rd (pending the Eskimo and Stamp games) with that 7-2 record, so my 4th place prediction is still definitely in play.

Win they'll savour - For the fans, the Edmonton win was a real statement game to say this team has arrived, is elite, and should no longer be disrespected, but I believe the team itself (despite the mantra that every win is equally important) would look to the improbable comeback against the Als as a sign that they are never out of it in any situation and are just a team that is good enough to find a way to win every time out, and their results this year so far (4 last play victories!) bear that out.

Loss they'll lament - Which is why the loss in BC stung so much in a way. Blowing that comfortable lead was one thing, but Medlock missing that field goal short at the end was more surreal than disappointing. Did anyone imagine he wouldn't make that one? Still baffling in a way, and it is the only reason we are not tops in the CFL right now.

They make the playoffs - Because there is a crossover, not that they'll need that route to get, but the security blanket is nice. Honestly, a 'Rider sweep and they can book a spot before October rolls around, even a split and they are in great shape given 3 teams in the East are all at 6 losses already, and they will add to those totals as they play each other in the second half. No team in CFL history, if I recall correctly, has ever won 9 games and missed the playoffs (and only one has ever won 8 and not made it), so the odds look really good right now.

They don't - if they don't salt away a couple of wins in the next 3 weeks and lay an egg against the Ticats, then a full-on collapse is not impossible, given the opposition in the final third.

Looking ahead - The critics (not saying I am one of them) will overlook the overall record and the Edmonton win, or snidely point out that it was built on the back of 5 Eastern games and a team missing 16 regulars, and say that this team will show how good it really is in the last 6 games of the year. 2 games in Alberta and another against Ricky Ray on the road, and back-to-back against the Leos, and aside from the Ticat home game  free space on the bingo card, there is nothing easy about the last month and a half of the year. This team has done what it needs to do to set itself up to challenge for top spot, but are in no way home and cooled for a home playoff date (or even a Western opponent) quite yet. Will be fun to watch, though, as this team is confident and skilled enough to take it to the next level.

 

Montreal:

What I said then - "This team is more in need of a re-build than any other, and maybe firing Popp has already kick-started it more than I am prepared to give them credit for. Plus, Darian Durant is pissed off and REALLY wants to stick it to the 'Riders for cutting him loose, so that's good for 2 wins right there. But likely not much else goes well this year in the end I fear. Wouldn't surprise me if they did a tank job by season's end and were last, but early on I think they sneak out a few surprise wins before other teams catch on and take then seriously. 7-11 (if Durant gets hurt, take 3-4 wins off that total)."

How did I do? - Beating the 'Riders? Check. (More of an asterisk given that missed makeable field goal that gifted them the win). Surprise win? Check. (Maybe the Bombers could ask that all Stampeder games be neutral site affairs at Molson Stadium).  Going as far as Durant will take them? Check (notwithstanding that the defence rules this team, the wins have been Durant's best outings all year). Teams catching on to them? Well take away a shank gimme field goal gave them one win, a bored Stamp team gave them a second, and no Ricky Ray gave them a third, and aside from that they are 0-6, I'll say check. I have a hunch the 38-6 Toronto-style beatdown may become more common than the 41-40 or 34-31 coin flip losses to the Bombers for this Alouette team in the second half.

Win they'll savour - Although the win over the Argos was more important, the Stampeder upset at home may be the only result they can legitimately not have to make excuses to feel good about.

Loss they'll lament - Blowing a 12 point lead with 48 seconds left is soul crushing.

They'll make the playoffs - If they take care of business against the RedBlacks, they get just enough out of Durant, and their defence wills them to it.

They don't - If they can't handle Ottawa, they start to resemble the team that got blown out in Toronto on a more regular basis, or they are the team that Hamilton decides to show up against to record their lone victory of the year.

Looking forward - 3 very distinct 3 game segments in the second half. A road game on the west coast sandwiched by Ottawa at home twice will give them a clear picture of where they stand in the playoff chase before the killer 3 of both Alberta teams and a game in Toronto, before the last 3  of Ham-Sask-Ham gives them a last chance dash to make up ground or put away a playoff spot with a season ending winning streak.

 

Edited August 25, 2017 by TrueBlue4ever

[BigBlue]

And I thought I was verbose

[TrueBlue4ever]

On ‎24‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 9:13 PM, TrueBlue4ever said:

 

With teams hitting the 9 game mark, thought it might be a good time to review some pre-season predictions and re-assess them, and gaze into the crystal ball again with half a season of backing to shape those guesses. Included for your amusement/my shame are my pre-season prognostications. Will start with the 3 teams already at 9 for now, then do 4 more later after this week's games are played, and the final 2 after week 11. 

More verbosity. Two more teams:

Calgary:

What I said then- "Nowhere to go but down, but dropping from the summit of Everest to base camp still has you well above the clouds most days. Not sure I buy the whole "this year is about redemption for last year's Grey Cup, so we are motivated every single time out" angle. More likely they pace themselves and give up a few more games in the regular season. 13-5 but second in the division (or 12-6, see Edmonton)"

How did I do? - Still the best team in the CFL, still have competition for top spot, just not who I thought. The last couple of games reflect that"pacing themselves" attitude. Hardly overwhelming teams, but they are talented enough to get by with a pedestrian effort. On pace for another dominating regular season record, still, a West-heavy second half means that maybe the 13-5 record isn't too far-fetched.

Win they'll savour - Only 3 games (and wins) against the Western teams, and neither Winnipeg nor Saskatchewan were anywhere near as good then as they are playing now, and the BC win against a struggling team wasn't that impressive from the Stamps end either, so let's go with a 60-1 pummelling as their biggest moment, even if it was the ***** Cats. [Seriously Mods? I can't type "Pu$$y" in that context??????]

Loss they'll lament - Only one loss to pick from. But dropping a game to a 3-6 team is one you'd want to have back, no question.

They'll make the playoffs - end of sentence.

They won't - I don't know. If the Argos fold due to lack of interest, the Ticats fold because of fan backlash to their hiring practices, the Roughriders team is decimated in a plane crash (I did not write that, you did not see me write that), and the League shuts down for the year. 

Looking forward - Interesting that the best and the worst teams in the CFL at the halfway point are also the ones who have played the fewest games within their own division. 7 of Calgary's last 9 games are against the Esks (3, 2 of them in Edmonton), 'Riders (2, 1 in Saskatchewan), Bombers and Lions, so a much tougher schedule than the first half. Still ,the bettor's choice to be hosting a division final at home.

 

Edmonton:

What I said then - "The wildcard of the West. Are they the team that ended the season strong or the one that started off poorly? What does Ed Hervey's late firing do - eliminate or create a distraction? Is Mike Reilly ready to take a run at league MOP or is he going to become labeled "the next glass QB"? Not too sure about them, guess this is my way of saying they could challenge for 1st (more likely 2nd) or could languish back in 4th in the division with a losing record, and neither outcome would surprise me. Just have a hunch they will rebound this year and be better (if not totally reflected in their win-loss record, at least in their divisional standing) 10-8 but third (or 11-7, give them one more win and Calgary one more loss)"

How did I do? - I waffled on my choice at the start, so even if they were bad, I could say I got this one right. Funny that the "glass QB" Reilly has been about the only healthy thing on this team, and he has looked dominant for most of the first half, but funny how that 7-0 start has largely been forgotten with consecutive losses and the "injuries have caught up with them" vibe. Some are noe saying they are regressing to where they always should have been, that the big win streak was a bit of a mirage. Still, unless they get swept by the Stamps again, they are set up well to finish high in the West and coast into the playoffs.

Win they'll savour - The opening tilt in BC which wasn't that close, then was almost given away, but snatched right back set the Esks on their path to 7 straight.

Loss they'll lament - The loss in Winnipeg may have burst the invincibility bubble, and is likely to have more direct impact on the season-ending standings for Edmonton, but that loss at home to the 'Riders by that score, and with that many mistakes, psychologically hurts more, I would think.

They'll make the playoffs - because there is a crossover and they have enough of a cushion built up from that 7 game winning streak, and the season series victory over BC, to get in without too much worry.

They won't - if 2 losses in a row becomes 4 after Calgary, and the snowball starts rolling beyond that.

Looking forward - Not sure where the soft spot is the the schedule in the second half. 3 vs the Stamps, 2 against Ray, Trestman and the Argos, the red-hot Bombers, Lions get one more shot against them in the Den, in a loud Mosaic against the team that just whipped them, and the Als in Sin City north. Same questions about which team will show up as I had at the start of the year. 

Edited August 29, 2017 by TrueBlue4ever

[TrueBlue4ever]

On ‎24‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 9:13 PM, TrueBlue4ever said:

With teams hitting the 9 game mark, thought it might be a good time to review some pre-season predictions and re-assess them, and gaze into the crystal ball again with half a season of backing to shape those guesses. Included for your amusement/my shame are my pre-season prognostications. Will start with the 3 teams already at 9 for now, then do 4 more later after this week's games are played, and the final 2 after week 11. 

Final 2 teams, a week late (probably because I am embarrassed at how off I was on these two), so I'll try to not let this past weekend's results affect my forecast. Then no more of my ramblings on this.

Saskatchewan :

What I said then - "If Vince Young actually made the roster and was anointed the starter, I would be waxing poetic about historic futility with this team (like 2003 Hamilton 1-17 futility), but Kevin Glenn has been around long enough to be a better regular season QB and pull a rabbit out of his hat once in a while to translate into a few more wins. And that receiving corps could keep them in a few games. However, it would require their o-line to actually give him time to throw, and his mobility is not what it used to be (not that it was ever his best feature). And too much overhaul by Chris Jones with no return on his gambles, and like Mike Kelly, the distractions will supercede the results on the field. I think the fans are already at revolt stage, how long before the players are there too? 3-15 (and that might even be charitable, but give them one win at home against Winnipeg - either the first game at the stadium opener where the fans will be jacked up or Labour Day which is always bizarro world for Winnipeg regardless of our record going in, one against Toronto, and one late in the year when the other random team is in the playoffs and doesn't care)."

How did I do? - About that..... Well, the team has certainly bought into what Jones is selling more than I would have given him credit for, and Glenn is having a career year at age 38 that no one could have predicted. I did call two of their victories correctly, though. Did not see the Edmonton or BC wins happening, however. So they will be much more competitive than first envisioned, still I picked them last and they can easily track that way in a brutally tough West. May become the first .500 team to miss the playoffs.

Win they'll savour - They always revel in the Labour day win, and the scale of the BC beatdown was impressive, but the upset in Edmonton was the one that got the pundits on board with all the "second best team in the league right now!" talk and made them believe their own hype. [Seems kind of distant in light of the Banjo Bowl result].

Loss they'll lament - The players and fans will hate losing the inaugural home game to the Bombers and the way it happened (blow a big lead, claw back to tie it, clang a chip shot FG off the post to hand the OT victory and lose on shoddy kicking on consecutive weeks), but I suspect the coaches will hate the loss a week earlier in Montreal more, given how poorly they played against a poorly playing much inferior opponent, and gassing a makeable game-ending FG to gift wrap 2 points to an eastern team.

They make the playoffs - If they win the season series against Winnipeg (Ok, pretend I wrote this before the Banjo Bowl, reality after week 12 is that they are in a 3 way scrap for the last 2 spots) and Edmonton (home game in the final week could be huge for both teams) like they did against BC, they take care of business in a East-heavy second half schedule, and they avoid more key injuries than the Esks and Lions .

They won't - because the West isn't allowed to put all 5 teams in the playoffs, and they have an extra game against the Stamps this year.

Looking forward - After the Banjo Bowl, 5 of their final 8 games are against the East, so if they can maintain the Western trend of dominance, they could pile up double digits in wins. Might still not be enough, though. Their saving grace could be the season series tiebreaker over BC.

 

Hamilton:

What I said then - "Weaker than the Grey Cup caliber team of 3-4 years ago, but still the best of a soft division, and if Collaros can shake off his injury demons, he and Austin should lead the Ticats to a comfortable 1st place division finish. Just curious, without looking can anyone actually name the back-up QB in Steeltown if (when?) Zach goes down? (looked it up - I guess Masoli is still there, with Logan Kilgore as #3). 11-7. (9 of those wins against the East)"

How did I do? - So, how about those Bombers, eh? Wow, totally missed the boat on this one. Collaros is a shell of his former, pre-injury self, and clearly has no faith in the line in front of him. Austin's demeanour went from grumpy to resigned, before he actually resigned. So they won't make 11-7, and their off-field antics turned this into a train wreck of a year, and yet......(see Looking Forward)

Loss they'll lament - So many to choose from, but the 60-1 Calgary embarrassment really established just how much this team quit.

Win they'll savour - Not that it was a good victory, but since there was no other choice, Labour day against Toronto (again, pretend I wrote this before Saturday's Ottawa game - that certainly changes the outlook for this team).

They'll make the playoffs - Because the coaching and QB changes give them a lift, the East is so bad that no one is really out of it, and they have 5 eastern games left in their last 9 (more than any of their eastern opponents)

They won't - Because third place won't be good enough in the East to make the playoffs, and unlike the RedBlacks, they did not handle a very tough first half West-heavy schedule and show any resiliency, and rolled over and died in week 6 and won't have any fight left (not sure if the last 2 weeks is a mirage or if they still have some fight).

Looking forward - If they can sweep their remaining Eastern games they will have 7 wins this year and would own the season series against all other teams in the East. Could this team still finish in top spot in the East and somewhat restore my pre-season prediction of their success?

[bearpants]

19 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

 May (Riders) become the first .500 team to miss the playoffs.

 

this is  a really interesting point... I haven't analyzed the schedule to see if this is impossible but it is looking more and more like 5th in the west will have a better record than 1st in the east... which would be extremely unfortunate for the team that misses out when two lesser teams make the show...

[WBBFanWest]

14 minutes ago, bearpants said:

this is  a really interesting point... I haven't analyzed the schedule to see if this is impossible but it is looking more and more like 5th in the west will have a better record than 1st in the east... which would be extremely unfortunate for the team that misses out when two lesser teams make the show...

If it's the Riders, then no, no its not.  It will in fact be one of the greatest events in CFL history  and I pray there will be a commemorative plaque made to honour it because I'll buy two.

[TrueBlue4ever]

On September 11, 2017 at 5:58 PM, TrueBlue4ever said:

May become the first .500 team to miss the playoffs.

 

8 hours ago, bearpants said:

this is  a really interesting point... I haven't analyzed the schedule to see if this is impossible but it is looking more and more like 5th in the west will have a better record than 1st in the east... which would be extremely unfortunate for the team that misses out when two lesser teams make the show...

I actually misspoke on that point. Should have qualified it with "first .500 team in the 9 team crossover era". It's actually happened 11 times since the CFL was founded in 1959, and twice since the crossover was implemented in 1986 (but those 2 were during the American expansion era, both involving U.S. teams), with 4 teams with winning records actually missing the playoffs. The most glaring example was 1981 when Saskatchewan went 9-7 and finished 4th and missed the playoffs while Ottawa at 5-11 and Montreal at 3-15 both got in. That is likely what spurred the crossover rule. Maybe all 5 West teams finishing ahead of the top East team will finally spur the "single division" change.

[Pete Catan's Ghost]

On 9/12/2017 at 1:54 PM, WBBFanWest said:

If it's the Riders, then no, no its not.  It will in fact be one of the greatest events in CFL history  and I pray there will be a commemorative plaque made to honour it because I'll buy two.

I will take your thoughtful plan for twin plaques;....cut a bum-size hole in one....paint them bile green....attach them together with bailing wire ....and use them as a turlet seat for my Uncle Jebediah's outhouse.

[WBBFanWest]

2 hours ago, Pete Catan's Ghost said:

I will take your thoughtful plan for twin plaques;....cut a bum-size hole in one....paint them bile green....attach them together with bailing wire ....and use them as a turlet seat for my Uncle Jebediah's outhouse.

Your jib, I like it's cut.