solving a QB

[johnzo]

So people have been saying that the reason that Jennings slipped so badly in 2016 is that defensive coordinators have solved him -- they've figured out how to defend against him and he hasn't adjusted or can't adjust. 

Others  are predicting the same thing will happen once Bridge starts playing regularly, and that the same thing happened with Casey Printers a decade ago -- another guy who made a big splash and then flamed out.

What kind of tendencies and tells do DCs look for when they're figuring out a QB?  If you're putting together a book on how to defend a particular QB, what will that book contain?

Edited December 20, 2017 by johnzo

[wbbfan]

40 minutes ago, johnzo said:

So people have been saying that the reason that Jennings slipped so badly in 2016 is that defensive coordinators have solved him -- they've figured out how to defend against him and he hasn't adjusted or can't adjust. 

Others  are predicting the same thing will happen once Bridge starts playing regularly, and that the same thing happened with Casey Printers a decade ago -- another guy who made a big splash and then flamed out.

What kind of tendencies and tells do DCs look for when they're figuring out a QB?  If you're putting together a book on how to defend a particular QB, what will that book contain?

It can vary a lot, from staring down their hot route, patting the ball on deep passes, the way they try (or dont) to sell the play action fake, small hand/leg/head  moves pre snap can be a gigantic advantage as well. After a while you have enough tape to pick up tenancies like preferred target zones to pass in, especially on certain routes. You can pick up the inflection change of their cadence to get a read on hard counts and allow you to cheat the rush (similar to hand/leg/head movements just before the snap)

 You also have enough film to say for certain if a guy has the touch to complete a certain pass / to a part of the field, the strength to another etc. If a guy always throws behind the wr on crossing routes the DB can play a trail position, bait a pass and jump it. 

The best specific guy who fell victim to this imo is rick mirer. Once dubbed as the next great QB, 2nd overall pick, one of the first starting rookie qbs and set tons of records for a rookie qb. And just like that the next year he was hot garbage. He could hardly complete a pass to the right side of the field. He couldnt read or pick up the blitz and had shell shock built in. Teams figured out he was only running 4 or 5 passing plays total. Its easy to blaze a trail as a new guy, but in pro sports you can only fool teams for soo long.Teams will adapt, the question is can you answer it. NFL teams adapted the 3-4 for speed backs like OJ simpson. Blocking schemes evolved (and the value of blind side tackles) with dominant jack lber rushers like LT.

In the cfl, Banks returning, chris williams  and as bomber fans weve seen a TON of dbs who are good as rookies and done soon after. 

Imo, part of jennings and the leos fall last year was play calling, OL and teams figuring him out late the previous year. Most of the last 2 games against us the leos could hardly pass. The offense was one dimensional, and teams started forcing the leos to beat them with some thing other then the deep ball. And they never adapted to win with some thing other then the deep ball. 

[Tracker]

2 hours ago, wbbfan said:

It can vary a lot, from staring down their hot route, patting the ball on deep passes, the way they try (or dont) to sell the play action fake, small hand/leg/head  moves pre snap can be a gigantic advantage as well. After a while you have enough tape to pick up tenancies like preferred target zones to pass in, especially on certain routes. You can pick up the inflection change of their cadence to get a read on hard counts and allow you to cheat the rush (similar to hand/leg/head movements just before the snap)

 You also have enough film to say for certain if a guy has the touch to complete a certain pass / to a part of the field, the strength to another etc. If a guy always throws behind the wr on crossing routes the DB can play a trail position, bait a pass and jump it. 

The best specific guy who fell victim to this imo is rick mirer. Once dubbed as the next great QB, 2nd overall pick, one of the first starting rookie qbs and set tons of records for a rookie qb. And just like that the next year he was hot garbage. He could hardly complete a pass to the right side of the field. He couldnt read or pick up the blitz and had shell shock built in. Teams figured out he was only running 4 or 5 passing plays total. Its easy to blaze a trail as a new guy, but in pro sports you can only fool teams for soo long.Teams will adapt, the question is can you answer it. NFL teams adapted the 3-4 for speed backs like OJ simpson. Blocking schemes evolved (and the value of blind side tackles) with dominant jack lber rushers like LT.

In the cfl, Banks returning, chris williams  and as bomber fans weve seen a TON of dbs who are good as rookies and done soon after. 

Imo, part of jennings and the leos fall last year was play calling, OL and teams figuring him out late the previous year. Most of the last 2 games against us the leos could hardly pass. The offense was one dimensional, and teams started forcing the leos to beat them with some thing other then the deep ball. And they never adapted to win with some thing other then the deep ball. 

Jennings suffered from Michael Bishop syndrome- he thought he could force the ball into double-triple coverage, and he paid for that in interceptions.

[wbbfan]

1 minute ago, tracker said:

Jennings suffered from Michael Bishop syndrome- he thought he could force the ball into double-triple coverage, and he paid for that in interceptions.

in part for sure. I never saw that offense evolve to do more then that though. despite having some fantastic potential in the running game, and guys who can  break big gains off short passes. 

[mbrg]

1 hour ago, johnzo said:

So people have been saying that the reason that Jennings slipped so badly in 2016 is that defensive coordinators have solved him -- they've figured out how to defend against him and he hasn't adjusted or can't adjust.

When defensive coordinators are the ones saying it, then it might be true.  I haven't heard any DC's saying that.

Jennings is young and hasn't been in the CFL for very long.  He's early on the learning curve.  In 2 more years he might be reading defences better and making smarter decisions.  Right now he's relying on his athletic gifts to compensate.  That's what the athletically gifted QBs do.  All of them.  Once they move further up the curve, they do it less.

He might learn.  He might not.  He might be given up on before he gets a chance.  I wouldn't necessarily say DB's winning some of those 40 yard jump-ball passes as meaning "DC's have figured him out".  They should win some of those jump balls.  It was getting ridiculously frustrating watching them lose every last one of them, and having Rod Black squeal like a schoolgirl as a result.  "CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT!!!??".  Yes Rod, I can.  It's football.  Receivers will catch the ball in the air, and jump up to do it.

I might have digressed.

[SpeedFlex27]

56 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

It can vary a lot, from staring down their hot route, patting the ball on deep passes, the way they try (or dont) to sell the play action fake, small hand/leg/head  moves pre snap can be a gigantic advantage as well. After a while you have enough tape to pick up tenancies like preferred target zones to pass in, especially on certain routes. You can pick up the inflection change of their cadence to get a read on hard counts and allow you to cheat the rush (similar to hand/leg/head movements just before the snap)

 You also have enough film to say for certain if a guy has the touch to complete a certain pass / to a part of the field, the strength to another etc. If a guy always throws behind the wr on crossing routes the DB can play a trail position, bait a pass and jump it. 

The best specific guy who fell victim to this imo is rick mirer. Once dubbed as the next great QB, 2nd overall pick, one of the first starting rookie qbs and set tons of records for a rookie qb. And just like that the next year he was hot garbage. He could hardly complete a pass to the right side of the field. He couldnt read or pick up the blitz and had shell shock built in. Teams figured out he was only running 4 or 5 passing plays total. Its easy to blaze a trail as a new guy, but in pro sports you can only fool teams for soo long.Teams will adapt, the question is can you answer it. NFL teams adapted the 3-4 for speed backs like OJ simpson. Blocking schemes evolved (and the value of blind side tackles) with dominant jack lber rushers like LT.

In the cfl, Banks returning, chris williams  and as bomber fans weve seen a TON of dbs who are good as rookies and done soon after. 

Imo, part of jennings and the leos fall last year was play calling, OL and teams figuring him out late the previous year. Most of the last 2 games against us the leos could hardly pass. The offense was one dimensional, and teams started forcing the leos to beat them with some thing other then the deep ball. And they never adapted to win with some thing other then the deep ball. 

Great post wbbfan. You Da Man!

[Booch]

A good majority of it is tenancies, and history and perceived strengths. Wbbfan hit the nail on the head on most of it. We used to condition a QB to never pat the ball because as odd as it seems defenses's look to that and 99.9 percent of time when a QB is doing that he is going deep and guys can pull off coverage and converge on the deep ball. You will probably have noticed most of Jenning's deep ball picks occurred with 2 or 3 guys in close proximity to the ball, and that wasn't by design in coverage, that was smart coaching and film work and the DB's identifying and executing...same is going to happen to Bridge this year..just watch.

Also QB tendency as to where he he will go or what he will do when flushed out of pocket and rolling out/scrambling away from pressure. Most guys will have a pretty much determined trait of what they will do, and once there is film and game history, guys will jump it often  resulting in the pick, or a busted up play.  

Players also look for cues..physical, body language, eyes...as to what's going on and what may happen. Players don't realize they are doing certain things and it allows the defense to key on it. We used to play a QB who everytime he was going deep pretty much ran to the center to get the snap and every time he did that it was a deep shot down the rail or a corner route...not sure if he was excited or overly eager to get the play rolling but it happened everytime. 

Same with mouth-guards....had a receiver who chewed on his or left it dangling out of his mouth on plays where he wasn't getting ball, but on plays where he was the intended target came to line with it in his mouth .

 

[SPuDS]

15 hours ago, mbrg said:

When defensive coordinators are the ones saying it, then it might be true.  I haven't heard any DC's saying that.

Jennings is young and hasn't been in the CFL for very long.  He's early on the learning curve.  In 2 more years he might be reading defences better and making smarter decisions.  Right now he's relying on his athletic gifts to compensate.  That's what the athletically gifted QBs do.  All of them.  Once they move further up the curve, they do it less.

He might learn.  He might not.  He might be given up on before he gets a chance.  I wouldn't necessarily say DB's winning some of those 40 yard jump-ball passes as meaning "DC's have figured him out".  They should win some of those jump balls.  It was getting ridiculously frustrating watching them lose every last one of them, and having Rod Black squeal like a schoolgirl as a result.  "CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT!!!??".  Yes Rod, I can.  It's football.  Receivers will catch the ball in the air, and jump up to do it.

I might have digressed.

See I tend to agree with this but Wally has been so prolific in making QB's look next level that I have a hard time believing he will continue to progress.. I think he's plateaued imo.

[johnzo]

Great answers, guys, thanks a lot for schooling me.

That thing about the receiver's mouthpiece .. man, what a giant tell.  Bet that guy always had a seat held for him at team poker games...

[JCon]

3 hours ago, Booch said:

A good majority of it is tenancies, and history and perceived strengths. Wbbfan hit the nail on the head on most of it. We used to condition a QB to never pat the ball because as odd as it seems defenses's look to that and 99.9 percent of time when a QB is doing that he is going deep and guys can pull off coverage and converge on the deep ball. You will probably have noticed most of Jenning's deep ball picks occurred with 2 or 3 guys in close proximity to the ball, and that wasn't by design in coverage, that was smart coaching and film work and the DB's identifying and executing...same is going to happen to Bridge this year..just watch.

Also QB tendency as to where he he will go or what he will do when flushed out of pocket and rolling out/scrambling away from pressure. Most guys will have a pretty much determined trait of what they will do, and once there is film and game history, guys will jump it often  resulting in the pick, or a busted up play.  

Players also look for cues..physical, body language, eyes...as to what's going on and what may happen. Players don't realize they are doing certain things and it allows the defense to key on it. We used to play a QB who everytime he was going deep pretty much ran to the center to get the snap and every time he did that it was a deep shot down the rail or a corner route...not sure if he was excited or overly eager to get the play rolling but it happened everytime. 

Same with mouth-guards....had a receiver who chewed on his or left it dangling out of his mouth on plays where he wasn't getting ball, but on plays where he was the intended target came to line with it in his mouth .

 

Seems to me, those are things you can correct with a QB, if he has the raw talent. Is Jennings capable of reading defenses and adjusting on the fly? I don't get that from him.

[Fatty Liver]

Just now, JCon said:

Seems to me, those are things you can correct with a QB, if he has the raw talent. Is Jennings capable of reading defenses and adjusting on the fly? I don't get that from him.

Maybe not yet but I get the impression that he is light years ahead of Brandon Bridge in this ability.

[wbbfan]

4 hours ago, JCon said:

Seems to me, those are things you can correct with a QB, if he has the raw talent. Is Jennings capable of reading defenses and adjusting on the fly? I don't get that from him.

It all depends. A guy who is a 4 year starter at college and played at a high level of highschool also starting for 3-4 years is gonna be exceptionally hard to teach. I suspect that might play into our scouting of  QBs. We often seem to bring in guys with good size strong build, all around athlete/players who have a lack of experience in general. Easier to shape, high up side etc. 

 

22 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Great post wbbfan. You Da Man!

thx

5 hours ago, johnzo said:

Great answers, guys, thanks a lot for schooling me.

That thing about the receiver's mouthpiece .. man, what a giant tell.  Bet that guy always had a seat held for him at team poker games...

Great questions like this allways make for great discussions and threads so thank you! 

[johnzo]

It's astonishing to me that a defense of 11-12 guys running at game speed can look across tens of yards that are crowded with gigantic fast-moving bodies and can make decisions and adjustments based on what the QB's hands and eyes are doing. Just amazing.

It's also real interesting that an accomplished QB is harder to teach than a talented but inexperienced guy.  Is that something you see in the NFL too, or is that something that's unique to Canada because our weird rules totally screw up a QB's instincts?

Edited December 22, 2017 by johnzo

[johnzo]

On 12/20/2017 at 4:26 PM, wbbfan said:

IThe best specific guy who fell victim to this imo is rick mirer. Once dubbed as the next great QB, 2nd overall pick, one of the first starting rookie qbs and set tons of records for a rookie qb. And just like that the next year he was hot garbage. He could hardly complete a pass to the right side of the field. He couldnt read or pick up the blitz and had shell shock built in. Teams figured out he was only running 4 or 5 passing plays total.

Isn't that the fault of the OC, though, for not running a more diverse offence?  Or is the point here that Mirer had such a limited toolset that he couldn't do anything except those 4-5 passing plays?

Gotta rewatch some BC games this offseason and see how Lulay played differently than Jennings -- they were a completely different team with Lulay in and I think their offense was more diverse than the huck-it-and-pray stereotype we hang on Jennings.

[wbbfan]

1 hour ago, johnzo said:

Isn't that the fault of the OC, though, for not running a more diverse offence?  Or is the point here that Mirer had such a limited toolset that he couldn't do anything except those 4-5 passing plays?

Gotta rewatch some BC games this offseason and see how Lulay played differently than Jennings -- they were a completely different team with Lulay in and I think their offense was more diverse than the huck-it-and-pray stereotype we hang on Jennings.

They had to dumb the system down further and further and work him up to those plays. He was that limited. 

Yeah I hope to find a heavy cache of games on YT again for winter rewatching.

1 hour ago, johnzo said:

It's astonishing to me that a defense of 11-12 guys running at game speed can look across tens of yards that are crowded with gigantic fast-moving bodies and can make decisions and adjustments based on what the QB's hands and eyes are doing. Just amazing.

It's also real interesting that an accomplished QB is harder to teach than a talented but inexperienced guy.  Is that something you see in the NFL too, or is that something that's unique to Canada because our weird rules totally screw up a QB's instincts?

Most of the time you dont see that much. most players/positions any way. If you are in a position where you need to take into consideration all the other teams players its generally a slower to react position like saftey. fast wide spread read leading to a fast reaction play is about as hard as it gets. And why Qbs get all the love/hate. 

Yeah its even more true in the nfl. Thats a big reason why they are soo heavy handed on prospects from none nfl style offenses. (even more so in the past) Some guys are real students of the game, guys who love to learn and improve. Peyton manning is a great example of this. Bruce arians has gone into great depth about his commitment, preparation and desire to learn. he tells one story about how as soon as manning was drafted, that night he wanted a copy of the play book to get started. They went to interview him, and it ended up being like a 3 hour meeting with him asking as many questions as they did. Where as ryan leaf blew off their work out, then wanted to do his own limited/easy open work out, and was out to party the night he was picked.  Thats a trait as rare as a phenomenal arm.  (the story is from his book the qb whisperer, a great read)

But once you have 6-8 years of high level experience doing some thing, changing is fantastically hard. Combine that with the type of personality a QB is fostered with / type the position attracts, and its good luck chuck. Jim harbaugh talks a lot about how hard/impossible it is to change most Qbs. That its more keeping them right rather then trying to get them right.  If any one wants I can dig up one of his (qb) coaching clinic videos. Bill walsh also talks about it in the score takes care of it self, and finding the winning edge. 

In baseball scouting they look for guys with 1-2 skills that are at or project to a MLB level, then work on adding 1-2 skills and polishing what they have. Ive heard it said a few times that at best if you work really hard and well on improving a weakness, you can improve it to be mediocre. But you cant turn a weakness into a strength.  As seen in several drafts, the more exposed to competition some one is, the less potential they have. Noob gains, are allways the biggest gains. 

[Tracker]

5 hours ago, johnzo said:

It's astonishing to me that a defense of 11-12 guys running at game speed can look across tens of yards that are crowded with gigantic fast-moving bodies and can make decisions and adjustments based on what the QB's hands and eyes are doing. Just amazing.

It's also real interesting that an accomplished QB is harder to teach than a talented but inexperienced guy.  Is that something you see in the NFL too, or is that something that's unique to Canada because our weird rules totally screw up a QB's instincts?

There are two types of intelligence- static and fluid. Someone with static intelligence can do quite well in unchanging,  predictable situations but those with fluid intelligence are adaptable and able to cope with dynamic situations- they usually like it.  The hard part is finding people with the fluid intelligence and the physical skills.

[mbrg]

2 hours ago, wbbfan said:

Peyton manning is a great example of this. Bruce arians has gone into great depth about his commitment, preparation and desire to learn. he tells one story about how as soon as manning was drafted, that night he wanted a copy of the play book to get started. They went to interview him, and it ended up being like a 3 hour meeting with him asking as many questions as they did.

I remember an interview with Arians from the latter half of Manning's time with the Colts.  The reporter observed that Manning got 100% of the reps in practise.  He asked Arians what happens if Manning gets injured.  Arians said "Then we're ******".  The reporter offered the suggestion they spend some practise time with the backup in.  Arians reply: "Why would we practise being ******?"

[SpeedFlex27]

1 hour ago, mbrg said:

I remember an interview with Arians from the latter half of Manning's time with the Colts.  The reporter observed that Manning got 100% of the reps in practise.  He asked Arians what happens if Manning gets injured.  Arians said "Then we're ******".  The reporter offered the suggestion they spend some practise time with the backup in.  Arians reply: "Why would we practise being ******?"

That seems to be Marc Trestman's attitude as well. Play the starter no matter the score. Give little or no reps in practice to the backup.  It's a great philosophy until the starter goes down. Then coaches like Trestman & Arians get fired. 

[Atomic]

7 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

That seems to be Marc Trestman's attitude as well. Play the starter no matter the score. Give little or no reps in practice to the backup.  It's a great philosophy until the starter goes down. Then coaches like Trestman & Arians get fired. 

True but how many teams have really succeeded when their starter has gone down, whether the backup was getting reps or not?  If your starter is out for the season, you're not winning the championship, regardless of the league.  I can't recall any backup QB ever winning a Grey Cup or Super Bowl but maybe someone can school me on that.

[JCon]

4 minutes ago, Atomic said:

True but how many teams have really succeeded when their starter has gone down, whether the backup was getting reps or not?  If your starter is out for the season, you're not winning the championship, regardless of the league.  I can't recall any backup QB ever winning a Grey Cup or Super Bowl but maybe someone can school me on that.

Tom Brady in 2001, I guess. Bledsoe was injured in game 2 and Brady led (most of) the way to beat the Rams in the SB.

[voodoochylde]

In the NFL, Tom Brady,  Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer (with the help of a pretty amazing Baltimore defense) and Terry Bradshaw are all guys who immediately come to mind as backups who have led their teams to championships (I'm sure there's more, I just can't think of them off the top of my head).

I can't think of a recent CFL quarterback to do it .. but honestly,  it's becoming more and more common that a starter goes down at some point during a season and a backup takes over for a stretch and ultimately helps a team 'get there'.

[Atomic]

2 minutes ago, voodoochylde said:

In the NFL, Tom Brady,  Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer (with the help of a pretty amazing Baltimore defense) and Terry Bradshaw are all guys who immediately come to mind as backups who have led their teams to championships (I'm sure there's more, I just can't think of them off the top of my head).

I can't think of a recent CFL quarterback to do it .. but honestly,  it's becoming more and more common that a starter goes down at some point during a season and a backup takes over for a stretch and ultimately helps a team 'get there'.

Kurt Warner?  Was he not the starter the entire season when the Rams won the Super Bowl?

Other examples seem fair.  But I wouldn't say their success was due to getting reps in practice.  Brady took over early and Dilfer and Bradshaw both had incredible teams around them.

You make a good point about quarterbacks going down temporarily and needing a backup to carry the mail for a bit.

[DR. CFL]

Burris and Trevor Harris.  I am not sure if the distribution of QBs reps at practice is the determining factor. Having a second QB who has shown some element of success when given the opportunity is perhaps a better requirement. How many teams have had aQB play all 18 games?

[voodoochylde]

40 minutes ago, Atomic said:

Kurt Warner?  Was he not the starter the entire season when the Rams won the Super Bowl?

Other examples seem fair.  But I wouldn't say their success was due to getting reps in practice.  Brady took over early and Dilfer and Bradshaw both had incredible teams around them.

You make a good point about quarterbacks going down temporarily and needing a backup to carry the mail for a bit.

With respect to Warner, at that point in time, he was something of a journeyman .. bouncing around after going undrafted in 94.  He started that season as the backup to Green but Green blew out his knee in preseason.  So yeah .. he did carry St. Louis through the entire season but was the backup going into that year.

[Mark F]

Earl Morall.... Dolphins backup to Bob Griese, took the team to the superbowl, I think Griese played in the superbowl and lost.

 N.Y. Giants qb took over for Phil Sims, and went very far, may have won the whole thing. forget name. oh yeah Frank Reich.

Case Keenum doing pretty well so far.