Movin' on to take on the Calgary Stampeders!!!!

[17to85]

https://www.cfl.ca/2018/11/16/confident-matthews-worried-grinch-bomber-d/

 

Just keep on underestimating this team. That D is playing some damned good football the back half of this year. Ask the Riders how bad mouthing the Bombers OL went for them. 

 

I love being the underdog. 

[Tracker]

2 hours ago, 17to85 said:

https://www.cfl.ca/2018/11/16/confident-matthews-worried-grinch-bomber-d/

 

Just keep on underestimating this team. That D is playing some damned good football the back half of this year. Ask the Riders how bad mouthing the Bombers OL went for them. 

 

I love being the underdog. 

I thought that I heard on the radio yesterday that the Bombers were favoured by 4 1/2 - 5 points.

[Arnold_Palmer]

3 minutes ago, Tracker said:

I thought that I heard on the radio yesterday that the Bombers were favoured by 4 1/2 - 5 points.

Stamps are favoured by 5

[do or die]

Stamps had the league best record and are playing at home.    Why the hell, would they not be the favorites?

[Mr Dee]

CFL Game #94 West Final - Winnipeg at Calgary:

 Stampeders vs Blue Bombers: This will be the first playoff meeting between them since the 1982 West Division Semi-Final won by Winnipeg 24-3 at Winnipeg Stadium. It is their first West Final match-up in the 53 years since 1965 and in the Single-Game Final Era (1972-->). Note: They did play a single-game final in 1945 immediately after the re-start following WW II.

 Winnipeg Finals Dominance: This will be the 7th Western Final match-up between Winnipeg and Calgary and their first since 1965. Calgary has never beaten Winnipeg in a Div-Conf Final in 6 previous tries: 1945, 1946, 1947, 1961, 1962 & 1965. Since the CFL itself was formed in 1958, Calgary and Winnipeg have yet to play a SINGLE-GAME Final before now (5 of the prior 6 Finals were Two-Game Total Points Series and one was an immediate 1945 Post-WW II special one-game playoff).

 The Last Winnipeg Playoff Win at McMahon?: The last Bombers' playoff victory in Calgary came in the deciding game of the 1965 Best-of-3 Western Final Series on November 20, 1965 by 19-12. The star that day was Ken Nielsen who had 189 yards on 5 catches for 2 TDs. The longest of those set the CFL playoff record with a 109-yard connection with Kenny Ploen.

 First since 2011/2002: Winnipeg's victory in Regina last week was their first in 7 years since the 2011 East Final over Hamilton (19-3). Given their bouncing back and forth between Divisions, it was their first Western Playoff win since the 2002 West S/Final.

 Reaching the Grey Cup from 3rd Place: With a win the Bombers can keep alive a chance to win the Grey Cup from 3rd Place, a task that requires two road wins and a neutral site victory as well. It hasn't been done since 2005 - the last teams being Edmonton in 2005 and BC in 2000.

 Reaching the Grey Cup: A win by Calgary would take them to the Grey Cup for a 3rd year in a row - something that the Stamps have never done in their entire history. The last CFL team to get to the Cup in 3 straight years was Montreal from 2008 to 2010.

 QBs - Most Consecutive Years with a Playoff Win: Having led the Stampeders to a playoff win in each of the last 4 years, Bo Levi Mitchell will be trying to join an elite group with wins in 5 years in a row or more: (1963 to present)

 5000/1000 ?: In 2018 the Stamps became the first team to ever have a 5,000 yard passer and yet have no 1,000-yard receivers. that clinched the #1 spot in the West as late as it gets. It is the first time that they won their final game of the season since 2015.

 Important! Who Leads After Q1: Across 2017-18, Calgary & Winnipeg are a combined 35-6 when they lead after the 1st Quarter and just 9-13 when they do not. So the team that is ahead after 15:00 this week is the more likely to go on and win.

 Mitchell in the Playoffs: This will be the 6th career playoff start for Bo Levi Mitchell and he is 4-1 to date averaging 302 yards per game started. His TD:INT Ratio is 6.0 to 1 (12 TDs, 2 INTs) and the 2nd-highest in all of CFL playoff history (trailing only Mike Reilly). Mitchell will be trying to lead his club to a playoff victory for the 5th year in a row.

 Matt Nichols - 133 in a row: Nichols evened his playoff record as a starter at 2-2 last week with the road win at Saskatchewan. Nichols made it 4 straight playoff starts without an interception last week and his streak is now 133 consecutive pass attempts without an INT. The CFL playoff record was set by Mike Reilly across 2014 to 2017 with 194 passes in a row with no INTs.

 Drives with the game on the line: Last week the Bombers led by just 13-12 but responded with 3 clutch offensive drives and 9 first downs that provided 10 points and sealed the win.

 Last week's Pass Defence: The Bombers held Saskatchewan to just 42 yards passing in the 1st half, 100 yards overall and sacked Brandon Bridge 4 times on drop-backs with great coverage. The Riders were able to complete only 12 passes all day and the Bombers made 2 interceptions which they turned into the ONLY Points Off Turnovers in the game.

 Stopping Harris - 100+?: With 5 games of 100+ yards this year, Andrew Harris now has 21 in his regular season career in 128 starts. Only ONE of those (Nov 1/13) has come against Calgary however. The Stampeders have held Harris to under 60 yards rushing in 13 of the 18 starts he has made against them. In 2018, he was held to under 100 yards combined in the 2 games (13 & 86 yards). In 7 playoff starts, Harris has yet to reach 100 yards though he has had 60+ on 4 occasions.

 Justin Medlock: Ranks #23 all-time among playoff scorers with 88 points and can easily move into the Top 20 this week. He is 22- of-26, good for an 84.6 mark, #7 all-time in the playoffs despite missing one last week at Regina.

 Rene Paredes: Rene Paredes comes in with a 17-of-19 FG mark good for 89.5% and #4 all-time. He missed his only playoff FG attempt last year however. Paredes ranks #26 all-time with 77 career playoff points.

 Weston Dressler: Comes in to this game as the leading ACTIVE playoff receiver with 865 yards on 53 catches, good for #13 all- time. He has made at least one reception in all 10 of his career playoff games.

 Winnipeg at Calgary: The only 2 wins that the Bombers have in Calgary recently have come AFTER the Stamps have clinched 1st place (2014, 2017). Since 2003, Calgary is 14-2 at home vs Winnipeg; with Bo Levi Mitchell starting they are 4-1 vs WPG.

 Last home win: The Stampeders have not won at McMahon Stadium since Sep 28/18 and have not beaten a West Division club there since September 3rd (75 days ago as of Sunday).

 Calgary & Winnipeg: Were #1-2 in 2018 in scoring, fewest penalties, fewest big plays allowed and tied for the Sacks lead.

 Nichols INTs: Matt Nichols has thrown just one interception and has 8 TD passes (incl. playoffs) since Sep 21/18.

 2018 West Final matchup: The following key statistics came out of their 2-game 2018 season series along with 2018 Rankings:

- The season series was split with each team winning at home; Calgary has won 15 of 18 games since 2011.

- Each team overcame a half-time deficit to win with a big 20-point Quarter in the 2nd half.

- The 2018 series was highlighted by Pass Offence - each team averaged more than 350 passing yards per game.

- In the first game Bo Levi Mitchell set a (then) career-high with 458 passing yards and did not throw an interception in either game. - Andrew Harris was limited to 13 rush yards in Calgary but had 86 on 15 carries in the most recent game.

- Ja'Gared Davis had 2 INTs and a TD; Micah Johnson had one Sack in each game.

- 4 of Winnipeg's 5 TD drives came in the 2nd half; Calgary scored either a TD or Field Goal on 12 of their 32 drives (38%)

- Calgary stayed away from Adam Bighill who had just 4 tackles in 2 games; Alex Singleton had 13 tackles.

 

[Arnold_Palmer]

37 minutes ago, do or die said:

Stamps had the league best record and are playing at home.    Why the hell, would they not be the favorites?

They’ll do as they always do.. choke when it matters the most!

[Nolby]

1 hour ago, do or die said:

Stamps had the league best record and are playing at home.    Why the hell, would they not be the favorites?

I agree and I'm much more nervous for this game than last week. Stamps are a complete team,Sask isn't.

[Mark H.]

Quick breakdown of who has the advantage at various positions, in my opinion:

QB: Calgary (no doubt)

RB: Winnipeg (best in the league)

OL: Winnipeg (best front 5 in the CFL, not even debatable)

Receivers: Winnipeg (Calgary injuries and recent strong play from our group)

DL: Calgary (This is 1a vs. 1b)

LB: Calgary (JSK out, so no doubt here)

DB: Push (excellent play from our group recently)

Return Game: Calgary (we don't shine here)

Kick Coverage: Winnipeg (but need to get back to their usual competence)

Kickers: Push

Overall: 

The Defense will keep on doing what they do.  Hope to see some pressure from rushing 3 or 4.

Nichols needs to run a respectable passing attack, so the Stamps can't key on the run.  Lapo needs to NOT randomly and inexplicably abandon the run.

The OL will keep on beating people up.

 

[Dr Zaius]

I know everyone is excited about our run game, but personally I can't see us running train all over that D in good weather. If it's freezing conditions I give us the edge hands down. In this game where the ball isn't going to be an ice cube we're going to have to make some kill shot plays to guys like Adams. Bo is going to force it down field and he WILL connect eventually. If we try to force runs between the tackles and they're shutting us down all day, I just can't see us sticking with it. Hopefully we have lots of play action and our hot routes success  and Nichols actually throws the ball instead of curling up and falling down.

That being said, I think we can absolutely win this game.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Dr Zaius

[NorthernSkunk]

21 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

Quick breakdown of who has the advantage at various positions, in my opinion:

QB: Calgary (no doubt)

RB: Winnipeg (best in the league)

OL: Winnipeg (best front 5 in the CFL, not even debatable)

Receivers: Winnipeg (Calgary injuries and recent strong play from our group)

DL: Calgary (This is 1a vs. 1b)

LB: Calgary (JSK out, so no doubt here)

DB: Push (excellent play from our group recently)

Return Game: Calgary (we don't shine here)

Kick Coverage: Winnipeg (but need to get back to their usual competence)

Kickers: Push

Overall: 

The Defense will keep on doing what they do.  Hope to see some pressure from rushing 3 or 4.

Nichols needs to run a respectable passing attack, so the Stamps can't key on the run.  Lapo needs to NOT randomly and inexplicably abandon the run.

The OL will keep on beating people up.

 

Was Bo and his stats that much better than Matts over their last six games ?

[Blueandgold]

Why the hell are we starting Lankford? Yuck. 

 

I would MUCH rather give Flanders a shot and pound the ball down the Stamps throat. 

[Mark H.]

34 minutes ago, Dr Zaius said:

I know everyone is excited about our run game, but personally I can't see us running train all over that D in good weather. If it's freezing conditions I give us the edge hands down. In this game where the ball isn't going to be an ice cube we're going to have to make some kill shot plays to guys like Adams. Bo is going to force it down field and he WILL connect eventually. If we try to force runs between the tackles and they're shutting us down all day, I just can't see us sticking with it. Hopefully we have lots of play action and our hot routes success  and Nichols actually throws the ball instead of curling up and falling down.

That being said, I think we can absolutely win this game.

All of that being said, I believe that there will be plays where the OL will impose their will regardless of who is in the box.

I have seen nothing from Nichols recently that leads me to believe he will curl up and fall down.  His best throws lately have been medium depth to the sidelines, which is ideal when they stack the box and create one on one match ups on our receivers. 

[Mark H.]

7 minutes ago, Blueandgold said:

Why the hell are we starting Lankford? Yuck. 

 

I would MUCH rather give Flanders a shot and pound the ball down the Stamps throat. 

They must be saving Flanders for the last 3 seconds of the Grey Cup. 

[TBURGESS]

50 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

Quick breakdown of who has the advantage at various positions, in my opinion:

QB: Calgary (no doubt)

RB: Winnipeg (best in the league)

OL: Winnipeg (best front 5 in the CFL, not even debatable)

Receivers: Winnipeg (Calgary injuries and recent strong play from our group)

DL: Calgary (This is 1a vs. 1b)

LB: Calgary (JSK out, so no doubt here)

DB: Push (excellent play from our group recently)

Return Game: Calgary (we don't shine here)

Kick Coverage: Winnipeg (but need to get back to their usual competence)

Kickers: Push

Overall: 

The Defense will keep on doing what they do.  Hope to see some pressure from rushing 3 or 4.

Nichols needs to run a respectable passing attack, so the Stamps can't key on the run.  Lapo needs to NOT randomly and inexplicably abandon the run.

The OL will keep on beating people up.

 

I mostly agree, but I'd give them the edge at receiver. We're likely starting Lankford.

I'd give them the edge at DB. Their group is better than ours because they don't have a weak spot like Fogg.

Our kick coverage wasn't good last week.

[Mark H.]

29 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

I mostly agree, but I'd give them the edge at receiver. We're likely starting Lankford.

I'd give them the edge at DB. Their group is better than ours because they don't have a weak spot like Fogg.

Our kick coverage wasn't good last week.

Fair comments.  Coverage has been good all year - they need to get back to that. 

[Piggy 1]

2 hours ago, Mark H. said:

Quick breakdown of who has the advantage at various positions, in my opinion:

QB: Calgary (no doubt)

RB: Winnipeg (best in the league)

OL: Winnipeg (best front 5 in the CFL, not even debatable)

Receivers: Winnipeg (Calgary injuries and recent strong play from our group)

DL: Calgary (This is 1a vs. 1b)

LB: Calgary (JSK out, so no doubt here)

DB: Push (excellent play from our group recently)

Return Game: Calgary (we don't shine here)

Kick Coverage: Winnipeg (but need to get back to their usual competence)

Kickers: Push

Overall: 

The Defense will keep on doing what they do.  Hope to see some pressure from rushing 3 or 4.

Nichols needs to run a respectable passing attack, so the Stamps can't key on the run.  Lapo needs to NOT randomly and inexplicably abandon the run.

The OL will keep on beating people up.

 

Cant disagree with most of that ,mate. But Wilson and Wild did a hell of a good job filling in for JSK. So I think we will be fine at LB. Although BigHill apparently has a cast/wrapping on one hand. But he claims hes good to go so...

[Piggy 1]

1 hour ago, TBURGESS said:

I mostly agree, but I'd give them the edge at receiver. We're likely starting Lankford.

I'd give them the edge at DB. Their group is better than ours because they don't have a weak spot like Fogg.

Our kick coverage wasn't good last week.

Wasn't Fogg responsible for like,10 takeaways this year? I think he makes up for the odd miscue.

[kelownabomberfan]

6 hours ago, sweep the leg said:

Thompkins had 57 yards receiving in the last six games. I don't think his removal will affect our offense much.

those are Brock Ralph-like numbers...

[Guest J5V]

5 hours ago, 17to85 said:

https://www.cfl.ca/2018/11/16/confident-matthews-worried-grinch-bomber-d/

Just keep on underestimating this team. That D is playing some damned good football the back half of this year. Ask the Riders how bad mouthing the Bombers OL went for them. 

I love being the underdog. 

I'm actually surprised to be hearing this from Matthews. I mean, I get the bravado and wanting to show his new team mates that he is a Stampeder now, but I'll bet DD is cringing hearing what Matthews had to say. I'm sure that crap will be posted in the Bombers dressing room.

[Guest J5V]

We've won 5 of 6 and that one loss to Edm at the end of the year -- a nothing game where we rested our starters. We struggled at times but put it all together when it meant the most.

**** them. They've lost 3 of their last 4 with their most recent loss being to us. They are a talented team that started strong but finished poorly once teams started to figure them out. I wouldn't be surprised if we blew them away tomorrow.

[kelownabomberfan]

54 minutes ago, J5V said:

We've won 5 of 6 and that one loss to Edm at the end of the year -- a nothing game where we rested our starters. We struggled at times but put it all together when it meant the most.

**** them. They've lost 3 of their last 4 with their most recent loss being to us. They are a talented team that started strong but finished poorly once teams started to figure them out. I wouldn't be surprised if we blew them away tomorrow.

the funny thing is that we almost beat the Edmonton starting line-up with our scrubs, including their starting QB, who played the entire game.  We had a receiver kicking our field goals for goodness sakes!

[17to85]

The Stamps D started so strong but man they really fell off towards the end of the season. Be really interesting to see if they've figured **** out or not. I actually have a lot of faith in our offense, Lapo has done a good job with it the last few years. 

 

This group is so tight, why not win this game and play in a Grey Cup? We're about due. 

[JuranBoldenRules]

5 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

The Stamps D started so strong but man they really fell off towards the end of the season. Be really interesting to see if they've figured **** out or not. I actually have a lot of faith in our offense, Lapo has done a good job with it the last few years. 

 

This group is so tight, why not win this game and play in a Grey Cup? We're about due. 

Lapo rarely faceplants in a playoff game and this team is pretty resilient.  At the worst it'll be a game down to the wire IMO.

What scares me is falling behind early and losing touch with Harris.  Lapo will do that if they get behind 10-14, rely too much on Nichols.

[Tracker]

Apparently the Stamps' pre-game meal will consist largely of artichokes and choke-cherry pie.

[Nolby]

7 hours ago, Blueandgold said:

Why the hell are we starting Lankford? Yuck. 

 

I would MUCH rather give Flanders a shot and pound the ball down the Stamps throat. 

Well,were not the coaches and I'm sure they may see matchups we don't.