Halfway point of 2018/19

[FrostyWinnipeg]

After 41 games
2018/19   26-13-2 = 54pts
2017/18   23-11-7 = 53pts
1st in Division, 3rd in West Con, 5th in League

And now the stats that make you go hmmmm...

+/- Good Leaders
Schief +16
Trouba +12
Ehlers and everyone's favorite dman to hate Tyler Myers +8

+/- Bad Leaders
Laine -11
Little -6
KConn -5

Goalies
Brossy 2.11GAA .939SV%
Helle 2.83GAA .910SV%

 

Tanev tied for 5th in goals(8) and Wheeler is 9th(6)
Byfuglien 3rd in assists(25)
Petan still on the team

[The Unknown Poster]

There is definitely an argument to trade laine. But at his age, so much potential to get better 

[FrostyWinnipeg]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Poster said:

There is definitely an argument to trade laine. But at his age, so much potential to get better 

Laine’s a one  trick pony but I think I f you traded hm it would be Selanne 2.0 backlash. 

[Floyd]

I'd almost put Laine on the top line and let him enjoy the benefits of Scheif/Wheeler

 

[blue_gold_84]

6 hours ago, Floyd said:

I'd almost put Laine on the top line and let him enjoy the benefits of Scheif/Wheeler

At this point, it wouldn't hurt to give it a shot and see if they can build some chemistry. As for trading him, I can't see that happening. However, he needs to be better - much better - and I don't know if he's making a strong case for himself to get a lengthy contract and massive payday. That could play in the Jets' favour as far as the cap goes but if and how no doubt remains to be seen.

All in all, this has been another strong season for the Jets - even despite them playing incomplete games more often than not. This recent slump is somewhat concerning, especially with the recent rash of injuries. But they're in a solid position in the standings and with a few improvements and more consistency, they should be able to hold on to top spot in the division.

[Floyd]

2 hours ago, blue_gold_84 said:

At this point, it wouldn't hurt to give it a shot and see if they can build some chemistry. As for trading him, I can't see that happening. However, he needs to be better - much better - and I don't know if he's making a strong case for himself to get a lengthy contract and massive payday. That could play in the Jets' favour as far as the cap goes but if and how no doubt remains to be seen.

All in all, this has been another strong season for the Jets - even despite them playing incomplete games more often than not. This recent slump is somewhat concerning, especially with the recent rash of injuries. But they're in a solid position in the standings and with a few improvements and more consistency, they should be able to hold on to top spot in the division.

I think no matter what he does he'll still get $8+...  he's a brand name now

[kelownabomberfan]

4 hours ago, Floyd said:

I think no matter what he does he'll still get $8+...  he's a brand name now

Not sure why Laine goes through these annual bouts of self-confidence issues...but then again he's 20.  What was Scheif doing when he was 20?

Edited January 7, 2019 by kelownabomberfan

[SpeedFlex27]

59 minutes ago, kelownabomberfan said:

Not sure why Laine goes through these annual bouts of self-confidence issues...but then again he's 20.  What was Scheif doing when he was 20?

He was barely on the team.

[Jimmy Pop]

16 hours ago, The Unknown Poster said:

There is definitely an argument to trade laine. But at his age, so much potential to get better 

Please tell me this is a joke.

[TrueBlue4ever]

17 hours ago, The Unknown Poster said:

There is definitely an argument to trade laine. But at his age, so much potential to get better 

 

59 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

Please tell me this is a joke.

Let's say for the moment, for argument's sake, that this is not a joke. How would this look?

Trading Laine would be a seismic event, no doubt. And were this the old NHL or a Toronto or New York team, this is never happening. The fallout is too great. But we are not in Toronto or New York, and this sure isn't the old NHL. The salary cap era and the reality of small market hockey in Winnipeg dictates that. Don't scoff, the Jets freely admit that at best they can compete as a mid-cap team only - they will never push the upper end of the cap except for a once in a generation run for the Cup, and even then, they won't chase free agents to do it, they'll sacrifice draft and develop for a trade deadline acquisition - they'll chase a Paul Stastny short-term rental but never bid for a John Tavares (or Paul Stastny, for that matter) long term free agent grab as a building block.

So why trade a budding superstar? Well, perhaps the track record of "lone superstar" vs. "complete team" negates that star's impact. Ovechkin has his Cup, so that is a ringing endorsement for the superstar route, but let's not forget that prior to finally breaking through after 13 years, he was largely seen as the player who, despite great personal numbers, couldn't win the big one. Washington was synonymous with playoff chokes before last year. The champions were more complete teams with multiple stars (Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel, and Fleury, Chicago with Toews, Kane, Seaboook and Keith, or Detroit with Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Datsyuk) and strong cheap support, or a team concept like Boston or LA. So with Wheeler, Scheifele, Byfuglien and Hellebuyck already fitting the "star" mode (or at least the star-sized salaries), do we have room for another? We have all heard that this team cannot stay together in its current iteration due to pending contracts. Is Laine worth more to the team than keeping Kyle Connor? Of course he is. Roslovic? No question. Trouba? Harder to say since the positions they play affect their respective values, but for argument's sake say yes, especially given everyone's fear that Trouba is going anyway. Morrissey? Again, positioning makes it tough to compare apples to oranges, but I think we can agree that Laine can carry this Jets team more than Morrissey can. So debate over, right? Wrong.

The debate isn't Laine over any one of these players, it's keeping Laine at the expense of losing MORE THAN ONE of those players. Keep Laine over both Morrissey and Trouba, I say this team is demonstrably worse off. Laine vs. either d-man and both of Connor and Roslovic, or Lowry and/or Tanev and maybe a future free agent signing? I don't think the theory that locking in to Laine for $10 million plus for the next 8 years wipes out our options for building those secondary pieces is that far-fetched.

Is Laine the first choice to go, then? We have Scheif and Ehlers on extremely cap-friendly contracts, so they would be equally movable. And Trouba would be a big asset for any other team as well (Morrissey too but less perceived value right now to the average fan), so does it need to be Laine? Well, are you giving up Scheifele to keep Laine? Does Ehlers attract anywhere near the trade value of Laine? Are Wheeler, Little or Byfuglien going to be as attractive as trade bait given their respective ages and contract sizes? And if you lose Trouba and/or Morrissey at the expense of Laine, is the team worse off as a net effect given the defensive deficiencies we would face?

The big con to the trade is marketing - Laine is a brand, and he will be worth a lot of money to the franchise as the face of the league (chicks dig the long ball, they say - scoring sells in the NHL, and Brett Hull was much more fun to watch than Adam Oates). But if the bottom line is winning, maybe the superstar trade for the building blocks of a powerhouse team is better. Dallas flipped Hershel Walker for 6 players and earned 3 Super Bowls as a result - Minnesota, not so much. Philly went all in to get Eric Lindros and parlayed it into a sweep at the hands of the Red Wings in 1995, otherwise no glory. The Nordiques, ahem, Avalanche, have 2 Cup banners to show for their efforts in that swap. In the cap era, I'm not sure one superstar can carry a whole team to ultimate glory when all other pieces are sacrificed to keep then there. Let's see if McDavid proves me wrong or right (for now I am winning that race). 

I'm not saying or advocating that we should trade Laine, but there is at least an argument to be made that it isn't a joke to consider it.

The funny thing is we already have a current example of the result of re-signing Laine at all costs, and it is the Maple Leafs. Having married themselves to Tavares and his massive contract, Austin Matthews is no longer the centrepiece of this franchise, and I cannot fathom how those 2 plus Nylander, Marner and Morgan Reilly all stay together much longer once their ELCs run out, much less adding the woefully missing defensive pieces that are needed to round out the team.

Edited January 7, 2019 by TrueBlue4ever

[kelownabomberfan]

So what would Laine command on the open market?  A Nico Hischier?   Pool-party plus RNH?  Draft picks and Ryan Ellis? Draft picks and Filip Forsberg?  I don't know.

[FrostyWinnipeg]

3 hours ago, kelownabomberfan said:

So what would Laine command on the open market?  A Nico Hischier?   Pool-party plus RNH?  Draft picks and Ryan Ellis? Draft picks and Filip Forsberg?  I don't know.

Ooooh 😍

 

[The Unknown Poster]

16 hours ago, Jimmy Pop said:

Please tell me this is a joke.

No its true, he's young and has a lot of potential.  You disagree?  Weird.

[The Unknown Poster]

15 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

 

Let's say for the moment, for argument's sake, that this is not a joke. How would this look?

Trading Laine would be a seismic event, no doubt. And were this the old NHL or a Toronto or New York team, this is never happening. The fallout is too great. But we are not in Toronto or New York, and this sure isn't the old NHL. The salary cap era and the reality of small market hockey in Winnipeg dictates that. Don't scoff, the Jets freely admit that at best they can compete as a mid-cap team only - they will never push the upper end of the cap except for a once in a generation run for the Cup, and even then, they won't chase free agents to do it, they'll sacrifice draft and develop for a trade deadline acquisition - they'll chase a Paul Stastny short-term rental but never bid for a John Tavares (or Paul Stastny, for that matter) long term free agent grab as a building block.

So why trade a budding superstar? Well, perhaps the track record of "lone superstar" vs. "complete team" negates that star's impact. Ovechkin has his Cup, so that is a ringing endorsement for the superstar route, but let's not forget that prior to finally breaking through after 13 years, he was largely seen as the player who, despite great personal numbers, couldn't win the big one. Washington was synonymous with playoff chokes before last year. The champions were more complete teams with multiple stars (Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel, and Fleury, Chicago with Toews, Kane, Seaboook and Keith, or Detroit with Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Datsyuk) and strong cheap support, or a team concept like Boston or LA. So with Wheeler, Scheifele, Byfuglien and Hellebuyck already fitting the "star" mode (or at least the star-sized salaries), do we have room for another? We have all heard that this team cannot stay together in its current iteration due to pending contracts. Is Laine worth more to the team than keeping Kyle Connor? Of course he is. Roslovic? No question. Trouba? Harder to say since the positions they play affect their respective values, but for argument's sake say yes, especially given everyone's fear that Trouba is going anyway. Morrissey? Again, positioning makes it tough to compare apples to oranges, but I think we can agree that Laine can carry this Jets team more than Morrissey can. So debate over, right? Wrong.

The debate isn't Laine over any one of these players, it's keeping Laine at the expense of losing MORE THAN ONE of those players. Keep Laine over both Morrissey and Trouba, I say this team is demonstrably worse off. Laine vs. either d-man and both of Connor and Roslovic, or Lowry and/or Tanev and maybe a future free agent signing? I don't think the theory that locking in to Laine for $10 million plus for the next 8 years wipes out our options for building those secondary pieces is that far-fetched.

Is Laine the first choice to go, then? We have Scheif and Ehlers on extremely cap-friendly contracts, so they would be equally movable. And Trouba would be a big asset for any other team as well (Morrissey too but less perceived value right now to the average fan), so does it need to be Laine? Well, are you giving up Scheifele to keep Laine? Does Ehlers attract anywhere near the trade value of Laine? Are Wheeler, Little or Byfuglien going to be as attractive as trade bait given their respective ages and contract sizes? And if you lose Trouba and/or Morrissey at the expense of Laine, is the team worse off as a net effect given the defensive deficiencies we would face?

The big con to the trade is marketing - Laine is a brand, and he will be worth a lot of money to the franchise as the face of the league (chicks dig the long ball, they say - scoring sells in the NHL, and Brett Hull was much more fun to watch than Adam Oates). But if the bottom line is winning, maybe the superstar trade for the building blocks of a powerhouse team is better. Dallas flipped Hershel Walker for 6 players and earned 3 Super Bowls as a result - Minnesota, not so much. Philly went all in to get Eric Lindros and parlayed it into a sweep at the hands of the Red Wings in 1995, otherwise no glory. The Nordiques, ahem, Avalanche, have 2 Cup banners to show for their efforts in that swap. In the cap era, I'm not sure one superstar can carry a whole team to ultimate glory when all other pieces are sacrificed to keep then there. Let's see if McDavid proves me wrong or right (for now I am winning that race). 

I'm not saying or advocating that we should trade Laine, but there is at least an argument to be made that it isn't a joke to consider it.

The funny thing is we already have a current example of the result of re-signing Laine at all costs, and it is the Maple Leafs. Having married themselves to Tavares and his massive contract, Austin Matthews is no longer the centrepiece of this franchise, and I cannot fathom how those 2 plus Nylander, Marner and Morgan Reilly all stay together much longer once their ELCs run out, much less adding the woefully missing defensive pieces that are needed to round out the team.

You lost me at the Jets being a mid-cap team that wont push the cap.  Can we follow that up with "no one wants to play here" and "Jets cant sign their own free agents" to complete the trifecta.

[blue_gold_84]

4 hours ago, The Unknown Poster said:

You lost me at the Jets being a mid-cap team that wont push the cap.  Can we follow that up with "no one wants to play here" and "Jets cant sign their own free agents" to complete the trifecta.

Spot on! LOL

The Jets are pushing the cap as we speak. I'll trust the process and management's judgment at this point and looking ahead; Cheveldayoff has the roster in a really good place.

[The Unknown Poster]

4 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

Spot on! LOL

The Jets are pushing the cap as we speak. I'll trust the process and management's judgment at this point and looking ahead; Cheveldayoff has the roster in a really good place.

Going to the conference final was a windfall for True North.  All their business interests are tied to the Jets doing well.  If they are a cap team that misses the window and begins to suck, sure, we can talk about trading guys away due to money and rebuilding.  But every team would feel the same way in that scenario.

Chipman did manage expectations in year one when he said the Jets would NOT be a cap team unless they had a chance of winning the cup.  They're basically a cap team now.  And will be for the foreseeable future.

If they trade Laine it wont be because they cant afford him.  It might be because they feel his market value isnt worth what he brings.  But if they really want to keep him, they will keep him.

[TrueBlue4ever]

2 hours ago, blue_gold_84 said:

Spot on! LOL

The Jets are pushing the cap as we speak. I'll trust the process and management's judgment at this point and looking ahead; Cheveldayoff has the roster in a really good place.

Before you all dismiss my statement and laugh derisively, perhaps you could each cite a source that says they are pushing the cap and not a mid-level cap team. I'll cite my sources: capgeek.com (when it existed) and capfriendly.com.  According to those sites, here is the percentage of the upper limit of cap the Jets have spent to every season since they joined, and where they ranked in the NHL for that year compared to the other teams:

2011-12: 80.7% (could not find ranking)

2012-13: 82.3% (17th of 30 teams)

2013-14: 97.85% (13th of 30 teams)

2014-15: 88.26% (19th of 30 teams)

2015-16: 83.74% (30th of 30 teams)

2016-17: 91.27% (27th of 30 teams)

2017-18: 93.24% (22nd of 31 teams)

2018-19 (projected): 92.90% (20th of 31 teams)

Any rebuttals or alternate facts stats anyone wants to come up with?

[JCon]

1 minute ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Before you all dismiss my statement and laugh derisively, perhaps you could each cite a source that says they are pushing the cap and not a mid-level cap team. I'll cite my sources: capgeek.com (when it existed) and capfriendly.com.  According to those sites, here is the percentage of the upper limit of cap the Jets have spent to every season since they joined, and where they ranked in the NHL for that year compared to the other teams:

2011-12: 80.7% (could not find ranking)

2012-13: 82.3% (17th of 30 teams)

2013-14: 97.85% (13th of 30 teams)

2014-15: 88.26% (19th of 30 teams)

2015-16: 83.74% (30th of 30 teams)

2016-17: 91.27% (27th of 30 teams)

2017-18: 93.24% (22nd of 31 teams)

2018-19 (projected): 92.90% (20th of 31 teams)

Any rebuttals or alternate facts stats anyone wants to come up with?

How could the Jets hope to keep Laine, Roslovic, Connor, Morrissey, Trouba, etc if they spent right up to the limit? Also, there are bonuses that will be due on the ELCs. 

You spend up to the cap when you absolutely have to but you need room in order to sign the younger guys and to make trades to help the club. 

As you can see, the Jets have been adding more and more salaries each year as the draft-and-develop model comes to fruition. 

[TrueBlue4ever]

38 minutes ago, JCon said:

How could the Jets hope to keep Laine, Roslovic, Connor, Morrissey, Trouba, etc if they spent right up to the limit? Also, there are bonuses that will be due on the ELCs. 

You spend up to the cap when you absolutely have to but you need room in order to sign the younger guys and to make trades to help the club. 

As you can see, the Jets have been adding more and more salaries each year as the draft-and-develop model comes to fruition. 

I agree, they can't hope to. But I don't think that they can hope to even with the way they are spending now. That's the point of the argument that a trade for Laine cannot simply be dismissed without considering the cost of keeping him. If Laine commands a salary of $8-10 million per year, and Trouba gets $5.5-8 million, and Morrissey gets $4-6 million, and Wheeler's new $8.25 million kicks in next year, we have added  $13-20 million in salary in those 4 alone. Myers and Kulikov off the books cuts $10 million, but we are down 2 d-men now. Our cap space is just over $6 million right now. And we haven't signed Corror or Roslovic yet. So who goes? Laine is a special player, but is he so indispensable to this roster that he is worth keeping at the cost of more than one of the other players, given how this team is currently constructed? Could the loss of his scoring be offset by the other players we keep? I don't have the answer, just opening up the debate, and trying to look at some numbers to focus the issue.

[Rich]

You are really conflating way too many issues into this discussion to even know where to start, and there are assumptions in your original post that are not even true.   Here are a few that I had time to find your facts articles.

Quote

 they will never push the upper end of the cap except for a once in a generation run for the Cup, and even then, they won't chase free agents to do it, they'll sacrifice draft and develop for a trade deadline acquisition - they'll chase a Paul Stastny short-term rental but never bid for a John Tavares (or Paul Stastny, for that matter) long term free agent grab as a building block.

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/winnipeg-jets-paul-stastny-st-louis-blues-1.4552179

Quote

Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said he got a text from St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong a few days ago telling him he might make Stastny available. Cheveldayoff had tried to get Stastny in free agency in 2014.

Just because they didn't get him in 2014 doesn't mean they didn't bid or try.  Jets were a horrible unattractive team in 2014.

Quote

 Don't scoff, the Jets freely admit that at best they can compete as a mid-cap team only - they will never push the upper end of the cap except for a once in a generation run for the Cup, and even then, they won't chase free agents to do it, 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/qa-jets-owner-mark-chipman-team-budget-patience-cheveldayoff/

Quote

While that was evident on the ice last season, Chipman insists his organization is equally as capable as a business to spend to the cap without financial strain.

As he sees it, his team is in it for the long haul financially and as a Stanley Cup contender.

“No one should think of us as just barely in the league,” said Chipman, executive chairman of the board of True North Sports & Entertainment and the Winnipeg Jets Hockey Club.

“We’ve got an agreement with the players that works, and it allows NHL hockey to be played in Winnipeg. We’re a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of our capacity to generate revenue. In some categories we’re slightly ahead and in some we’re slightly behind.

“We’re a mid-range team and that allows us to pay for the players that we need to if we have to go to the cap and be competitive long term.”

...

Recent signings of players like captain Blake Wheeler (five years, $41.25 million) and Connor Hellebuyck (six years, $37 million) have pushed the Jets towards the limits of the salary cap, a development further complicated by the fact Patrik Laine and hotshot rookie Kyle Connor need new deals next summer.

It’s a development few thought possible years ago, given the constraints of a market housing just 700,000 people.

However, Chipman insists it was his intention to spend to the ceiling all along.

“Absolutely it was the plan,” said Chipman, whose club owns the 15,321-seat Bell MTS Place.

“It used to trouble me when people referred to us as a ‘budget team.’ We weren’t a ‘budget team’ – I thought we were just being a rational team. We could have gone out every summer and blown our brains out if we wanted to, but that didn’t make sense. We knew eventually this day was coming.”

 

Regardless of ranking in spending or percentage of the cap, the last couple of years, the Jets have been within a "good" player of spending to the cap, which to me totally makes sense given where their young stars are. Tieing up money to spend to the cap you are going to need to sign young players coming off their ELC's is just stupid.   Suppose the proof will be in the pudding over the next few years, but I expect the Jets will be spending very close to the cap.

Probably would be a better discussion to separate the topics of the Jets being a "budget" team vs. trading Laine. 

[TrueBlue4ever]

The reality of the salary cap makes every team a “budget” team. But take limitations out of the equation - spending to the limit of the cap, does anyone believe that the Jets can sign Laine long term and keep all of their other players?  If not, who do you pass up on? Do you have to pass up on more than one player if you keep Laine?  And if you trade Laine, does that allow you to keep everyone else? Finally, is it worth it to keep him or trade him, given those questions?

[Brandon]

They find a way to keep Laine simple as that.  No way do they trade away a goal scorer with his kind of talent.  If Toronto can find a way to sign all those contracts then Winnipeg can find a way.  

 

[Goalie]

Trouba is gone.. Myers likely too.. Buffs 7.5 comes off soon.. Perreault etc... Little likely gets dealt.. 

 

Ill tell u this.. Jets move buff wheeler little Perreault etc long b4 a 20 yr old

[The Unknown Poster]

19 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Before you all dismiss my statement and laugh derisively, perhaps you could each cite a source that says they are pushing the cap and not a mid-level cap team. I'll cite my sources: capgeek.com (when it existed) and capfriendly.com.  According to those sites, here is the percentage of the upper limit of cap the Jets have spent to every season since they joined, and where they ranked in the NHL for that year compared to the other teams:

2011-12: 80.7% (could not find ranking)

2012-13: 82.3% (17th of 30 teams)

2013-14: 97.85% (13th of 30 teams)

2014-15: 88.26% (19th of 30 teams)

2015-16: 83.74% (30th of 30 teams)

2016-17: 91.27% (27th of 30 teams)

2017-18: 93.24% (22nd of 31 teams)

2018-19 (projected): 92.90% (20th of 31 teams)

Any rebuttals or alternate facts stats anyone wants to come up with?

You're acting like there is a wide diversity between a lot of teams.  Im not sure how over 90% equates to always being a "mid cap" team.  That sort of proves the opposite.  They spend pretty damn high.  

Why dont you cite a source that the Jets have chosen not to sign a single player because they didnt want to pay.

[The Unknown Poster]

15 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

The reality of the salary cap makes every team a “budget” team. But take limitations out of the equation - spending to the limit of the cap, does anyone believe that the Jets can sign Laine long term and keep all of their other players?  If not, who do you pass up on? Do you have to pass up on more than one player if you keep Laine?  And if you trade Laine, does that allow you to keep everyone else? Finally, is it worth it to keep him or trade him, given those questions?

That has nothing to do with the false point you tried to make.  Now you're saying if the Jets keep Laine they might not have enough room under the cap for other players?  So you're saying signing Laine might make the Jets right at the top of the cap?  

And if every team is a budget team then how is your original point a criticism of the Jets?

We;ve broken down the numbers before.  I did it just a couple weeks ago.  Its tight but Jets probably keep everyone they want.

Edited January 9, 2019 by The Unknown Poster