QB Accuracy Rankings

[USABomberfan]

1 hour ago, Floyd said:

https://www.cfl.ca/2019/07/10/accuracy-grades-target-week-4/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I'm a Nichols fan but he is not having a great season so far... especially with the level of protection that he's getting

Where is this fool writer getting those numbers from anyway?

Last I checked it was Nichols at 80℅ completion and Streveler at 75℅.  I mean doesn't matter which QB you like, the game's stats log says it plain and clear.

[USABomberfan]

33 minutes ago, blue85gold said:

He's right there with the other starters. Can definitely be better but his accuracy in OTT wasn't an issue. 

Weird that Strevler is being pumped up on that link. Did he even attempt a pass further than 10 yards downfield?

Nope, all easy throw check downs and only 8 total.  How anyone can objectively evaluate a QB based on that is beyond me.

And McCleod Bethel Thompson ahead of Nichols?  Really?  Absolutely Ridiculous!!!

[Mark F]

3 minutes ago, USABomberfan said:

Nope, all easy throw check downs and only 8 total.  How anyone can objectively evaluate a QB based on that is beyond me.

And McCleod Bethel Thompson ahead of Nichols?  Really?  Absolutely Ridiculous!!!

This is just another version of "so what if the Bombers won, Nichols didn't throw for three hunnert"

 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mark F

[Mr Dee]

4 minutes ago, USABomberfan said:

Nope, all easy throw check downs and only 8 total.  How anyone can objectively evaluate a QB based on that is beyond me.

And McCleod Bethel Thompson ahead of Nichols?  Really?  Absolutely Ridiculous!!!

I wouldn’t worry about it. Marshall Ferguson has a writer’s accuracy rate in the low 60s..

[USABomberfan]

1 minute ago, Mark F said:

This is just another version of "so what if the Bombers won, Nichols didn't throw for three hunnert"

 

Well, for some of us fans to act like that is one thing, but for a paid sports journalist or columnist, I'd expect better than that.  I just cannot take those numbers seriously.

[NorthernSkunk]

4 hours ago, blueingreenland said:

Passing yards wise, maybe not. But he is efficient. Yes, I would rather have BLM or Reilly here (at a lesser salary), but Nicholls doesn't throw too many picks and fits our system. I'm saying he throws at least 4 TD's on Friday...

Unless he gets those 4 td's from his own 30 yard line every time I don't think he will get four,  .... I would love to see him get 300 yards and  2 td's ...and his yardage helping streveler get two more td's in as well.  Isn't that how the team is operating now  anyway...?

[wbbfan]

4 hours ago, USABomberfan said:

Where is this fool writer getting those numbers from anyway?

Last I checked it was Nichols at 80℅ completion and Streveler at 75℅.  I mean doesn't matter which QB you like, the game's stats log says it plain and clear.

He is giving a % grade on the ball location on passes. Its not based on their completion %, its grading how well the ball is thrown with out any consideration towards if its caught or not. 

Im not a fan of the circle chart he uses. It should be more like a weighted dart board. Throwing the ball 2 yards behind the wr on a speed out is not equal to throwing it 2 yards in front of them. And hitting the numbers dead on is not as good as a slight lead that keeps the wr in stride. 

[Floyd]

You do understand that this system uses catchable balls and considers the routes...  

quite the uproar ha

[Noeller]

13 minutes ago, Floyd said:

You do understand that this system uses catchable balls and considers the routes...  

quite the uproar ha

But I'm still not sure how he knows which play is called.. Seems to me that's a big part of it. 

[Floyd]

10 minutes ago, Noeller said:

But I'm still not sure how he knows which play is called.. Seems to me that's a big part of it. 

It just rated accuracy not who’s a better QB for check downs or playcalling

way better stats than yards per game or completions

[SpeedFlex27]

8 hours ago, Firekid said:

 

Nichols is undefeated and is tied for the lead in the league in TD passes in one less game than the guy he is tied with. I would say his season is doing fine so far. 

We're in first place. That's all I care. Tom Burgess & Sean Salisbury were no all stars either & Nichols is better than both.  Both won Grey Cups.

[Floyd]

5 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

We're in first place. That's all I care. Tom Burgess & Sean Salisbury were no all stars either & Nichols is better than both.  Both won Grey Cups.

Umm Nichols is not better than either of those guys...  maybe on par

[SpeedFlex27]

Just now, Floyd said:

Umm Nichols is not better than either of those guys...  maybe on par

Did you watch Salisbury? He wasn't very good most games. Barely a 50% passer. But he was a "game manager" on a team with an outstanding defense. Same with Burgess who was a journeyman backup mostly.  Nichols plays well enough for us to win.

[Floyd]

7 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Did you watch Salisbury? He wasn't very good most games. Barely a 50% passer. But he was a "game manager" on a team with an outstanding defense. Same with Burgess who was a journeyman backup mostly.  Nichols plays well enough for us to win.

Yeah I’m from the burgess and Salisbury era...  

salisbury was a gunslinger more than game manager - burgess def a game manager

you can’t compare completion percentages - receivers used to get mauled

[SpeedFlex27]

26 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Yeah I’m from the burgess and Salisbury era...  

salisbury was a gunslinger more than game manager - burgess def a game manager

you can’t compare completion percentages - receivers used to get mauled

I always thought Salisbury was wild. Not much of a passer. You had to be shocked with that first half in the 88 Grey Cup when the offense seemed to open it up with some big shots to Murphy downfield. Then in the third quarter the O settled into what it always did which was nearly nothing under Salisbury & the D won it for us in the second half.

[Floyd]

9 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I always thought Salisbury was wild. Not much of a passer. You had to be shocked with that first half in the 88 Grey Cup when the offense seemed to open it up with some big shots to Murphy downfield. Then in the third quarter the O settled into what it always did which was nearly nothing under Salisbury & the D won it for us in the second half.

Joey Elliott reminded me of Salisbury 

[TBURGESS]

I like that someone is trying to gauge QB accuracy. It's one of the most important things a QB can possess. I don't have a problem with the way he's doing it either.

Folks either don't understand what he's saying or are just upset that their QB, Nichols, isn't ranked higher. Note that this is simply about accuracy. It's not about play call or wins or even completions.

[NorthernSkunk]

9 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

We're in first place. That's all I care. Tom Burgess & Sean Salisbury were no all stars either & Nichols is better than both.  Both won Grey Cups.

I thought teams win grey cups ?.....

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, TBURGESS said:

I like that someone is trying to gauge QB accuracy. It's one of the most important things a QB can possess. I don't have a problem with the way he's doing it either.

Folks either don't understand what he's saying or are just upset that their QB, Nichols, isn't ranked higher. Note that this is simply about accuracy. It's not about play call or wins or even completions.

On the radio he's gone over it a few times on how and why he does it the way he does.   

The last time he was on he pointed out that Streveler has a real nice touch on his throws and that he does place the ball where receivers can go make the play. 

Nichols has been better this year but the old eye test has shown a lot of guys having to drop down or dive over to catch a ball that could of been thrown more accurate and where the receiver would of been hit in stride. 

Surprisingly this season I think Nichols best throws have been his deep balls.

[Mark F]

My impression of streveler is that so far, he doesn't see the field that well, and takes off with the ball too quickly.

At this point, Nichols is a much better quarterback than Streveler, no matter what Ferguson's stats say.

I would like Lapo to bring back the no huddle offence, it worked really well, and Nichols executed it very well.

 

Edited July 11, 2019 by Mark F

[JCon]

4 minutes ago, Mark F said:

My impression of streveler is that so far, he doesn't see the field that well, and takes off with the ball too quickly.

At this point, Nichols is a much better quarterback than Streveler, no matter what Ferguson's stats say.

I would like Lapo to bring back the no huddle offence, it worked really well, and Nichols executed it very well.

 

I agree. Although, I like Streveler's default to run, rather than other young QBs who try to force something. I hope the game slows down for him and he feels more comfortable reading the defence and making throws. 

[17to85]

Young QBs always run. Part of experience and the game still being fast for them. I think streveler is getting a bit under rated as a passer here. He's ok at that aspect and his running skills make him such a multifaceted threat. You tailor and offense to him I would be really curious to see what he can do. 

[do or die]

When you are strong as a bull and can run like a deer, the natural instinct is to take off.   Time and reps should help smooth this out......

[TrueBlue4ever]

2 hours ago, TBURGESS said:

I like that someone is trying to gauge QB accuracy. It's one of the most important things a QB can possess. I don't have a problem with the way he's doing it either.

Folks either don't understand what he's saying or are just upset that their QB, Nichols, isn't ranked higher. Note that this is simply about accuracy. It's not about play call or wins or even completions.

 

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

On the radio he's gone over it a few times on how and why he does it the way he does.   

The last time he was on he pointed out that Streveler has a real nice touch on his throws and that he does place the ball where receivers can go make the play. 

Nichols has been better this year but the old eye test has shown a lot of guys having to drop down or dive over to catch a ball that could of been thrown more accurate and where the receiver would of been hit in stride. 

Surprisingly this season I think Nichols best throws have been his deep balls.

Here is my issue with it - he is using a subjective "eye test" to decide personally what "looks like" a good pass to him, and giving it a grade. Now, he may have no skin in the game and will rank QBs evenly based on the throw and not the thrower, but if he doesn't prefer a certain style of pass, it will hinder the scoring for that QB. Using an efficiency rating (where Nichols is at 120.7 and #1 in the league for QBs with more than 50 pass attempts, and only behind Arbuckle for QBs with more than 6 attempts) incorporates raw data like completion percentage, TD/interception ratio, yards per pass and yards per attempt to determine a more objective number that more properly ranks QBs equally for the metric it tries to define. 

Streveler rates higher, and Nichols should rate highly because they use a short passing game with lots of short passes to the running backs, and those should be easier to throw than than crossing route into a seam between multiple defenders. But looking at some of the examples of what Ferguson grades his passes on, he seems to like the deeper downfield throws.

As an example, Mike Reilly likes to throw up the jump ball passes and let his tall receivers out-duel the shorter defensive backs on what we call "50/50 balls". But it's easy to say that the pass is accurate, because it is not behind there receiver or low, which he likes to pick on. And how many times do we see a receiver change their running pace to "slow down" or adjust to the ball in the air, to be able to speed up and the last moment to gain separation form the defender or catch the ball in stride. That may translate into an accurate pass, but how much of that is on the QB hitting the target perfectly and how much is on the receiver adjusting to the ball in flight to "move the target" and meet the ball? YAC yards seems to be a big thing based on Ferguson's "eye test" metric (because to him the perfect pass is hitting the receiver in stride so they don't have to change their route). 

I think of 3 passes in particular Nichols threw in the last game, two I believe came on the drive where Hardrick took the roughing penalty, that would be subject to a low grade but in my mind were put exactly where Nichols wanted them to be. The first pass was a sideline throw to Darvin Adams for about a 25 yard gain on 2nd and 10, where Adams made a great leaping catch. That would rank low on the rating scale because Adams had to adjust to the high wide ball and made no YAC yards, might score a 1 or 2. But Nichols put the ball where no other player was going to be able to make a play on it, so if Adams doesn't make the catch it falls incomplete out of bounds, and maybe Nichols trusts that Adams can make the high catch, so puts it up there for him rather than risking hitting him in stride down the sideline where a defender might step in front of it for an INT. Much safer than a Mike Reilly rainbow toss 40 yards down the middle of the field into double coverage where Duke Williams out jumps the corner and the safety, but the throw could be more "accurate" since it hits the target zone, but could be picked off more easily if not for the athleticism of his receiver. That to me is a flaw in the judgment system Ferguson employs.

The second pass was to Drew Wolitarsky. Nichols threw a dart over the middle that Wolitarsky went down to the turf to catch. Will score maybe at best a 2 because the receiver got zero YAC yards and had to go low to scoop the ball off the turf. But looked at another way, Nichols again puts the ball where only his receiver can make a play on it, threading a needle with defenders close by. And it went for 9 yards when the Bombers needed 8 for a first down. To me that is a perfectly placed ball, but according to Ferguson's video examples, that would be a bad pass. Wolitarsky makes a very nice catch, but was it a bad throw he had to go down for, or was it meant to be a low pass designed for Drew to go low and secure the first down with zero risk of interception if he can't squeeze it?

The last throw was the called back TD to Adams. Could score high because Nichols led the receiver and hit him in stride, or could score low because it was "too far in front" of Adams, and only the brilliant one-handed catch saves the off-target throw. Who, other than Ferguson, can say? Or does it even count because the penalty wiped out the pass altogether?

So it might be a nice idea, but unless Ferguson wants to justify his scoring on every pass publicly, all he is doing is assigning his own subjective ranking system of what in his mind makes a good pass, with no real consistent real raw data to validate his opinions. 

[TBURGESS]

Yah, it's subjective, but so are folks around here's views. It's not results oriented. It's accuracy oriented. Efficiency rating means nothing in this analysis. You're right that short balls are easier to be accurate on, which is why Streveler ranked so highly this week. That doesn't seem to validate your 'likes deep balls' comment tho.

You seem to want to give Nichols points for results, not accuracy. Nichols throws balls in the dirt and the receivers dig them out. Accurate throws? Not unless that's the only place he could throw the ball and mostly it's not (Subjectively speaking). Good result? Sure. Nichols overthrows, but the receiver makes a great 1 handed grab. Accurate throw? Maybe? Good result? Yup.

It really doesn't matter anyway. It's just one mans opinion of how accurately QB's are throwing the ball. Assuming he doesn't have a bias for or against specific QB's it should be a reasonable way to look at QB accuracy. I can't think of a better way to do it... can you?