Matt Nichols Discredited Too Much? Passing Yards Are Meaningless

[Nolby]

7 hours ago, Goalie said:

When they’re on offence, it’s likely a two-and-out or a quick six. Winnipeg has 24 two-and-outs, the second-most in the league.

 

@Mr Dee posted this in the other thread. 

Still dont think the O is struggling with consistency? 

Another snippet he posted.. In 4 games Nichols has 49 psssing yards in the 4th quarter or about 12 yards per game. 

Still? 

 

4 and 0 is great but 4 and 0 is def covering up a few major issues. 

I know theres a few "what ifs " on some of those two-and-outs but Nichols leads the league in td passes and that's all that matters......and were 4-and-0

Edited July 17, 2019 by Nolby

[BigBlueFanatic]

I think it’s been mentioned, but the “average” 4th quarter pass yards for Nichols is BS if it also counts game 3 where he left in the 3rd 🤷🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

[USABomberfan]

49 minutes ago, BigBlueFanatic said:

I think it’s been mentioned, but the “average” 4th quarter pass yards for Nichols is BS if it also counts game 3 where he left in the 3rd 🤷🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

But I also think it even further solidifies the case against Lapo because if Strev is in there and ball movement through the air is still very non-existent, that means Lapolice is both going conservative and refusing to take the training wheels off the offense for Strev.  Even if he is in development, he needs to allow that 2nd year guy who to cut loose and sling it around the field.

[Mark F]

15 hours ago, AKAChip said:

being the strangest person the internet has ever seen. 

If I've told you once, I've told you a hundred billion times..... don't exaggerate!

[Eternal optimist]

Might be adding fuel to the fire here... but just some stats on Nichols vs other QBs after Week 5:

1. Most TD passes in the league (10).
2. His completion accuracy (69.4%) is right around league average (67.9%)
3. He's only thrown 1 interception to-date, the only QBs who have less is Trevor Harris and Nick Arbuckle, Arbuckle also has considerably less playing time, so I'd attribute his low INT total to that.
4. Winnipeg's offense successfully runs the ball... alot! Of our total offensive plays (204), close to half of them (95, 46.57%) have been running plays, which is 1st in the league. We're the only team above.500 that currently successfully does this, the two other teams that are run-heavy are SSK (104 running plays, 228 total offensive plays, 45.61%) and MTL (99 running plays, 213 offensive plays, 46.48%). After that, there is about a 10% drop-off in run-play % with each other team running the ball less than 40% of their offensive plays.
5. Although it is true we have 2nd most 2-and-outs in the league (24), the league average is 19, we're within 1 sigma of the league average, essentially meaning our offense is pretty much middle-of-the road in terms of 2-and-outs.
6. His completion % for deep passes (38.10%) is 3rd-worst in the league, though it should be noted he doesn't shy away from it (21 attempts, league average 21.3 among qualifying QBs). Interesting note here though, Reilly's deep pass completion % is only 28.13%... only QB who is worse is Mitchell (20.00%) though I'd attribute that to him playing hurt.
7. There does not appear to be any correlation between 300+ yard games and team winning percentage (R^2 value = .0872) league-wide, suggesting that this stat is practically irrelevant with respect to wins league-wide, not just for Nichols who is 4-0 with 0 300 yard games.
8. You guys made me late for work.

 

 

 

[Rod Black]

I haven’t seen sigma referenced in years. Thorough authoritative work you did there EO. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Rod Black

[USABomberfan]

24 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

Might be adding fuel to the fire here... but just some stats on Nichols vs other QBs after Week 5:

1. Most TD passes in the league (10).
2. His completion accuracy (69.4%) is right around league average (67.9%)
3. He's only thrown 1 interception to-date, the only QBs who have less is Trevor Harris and Nick Arbuckle, Arbuckle also has considerably less playing time, so I'd attribute his low INT total to that.
4. Winnipeg's offense successfully runs the ball... alot! Of our total offensive plays (204), close to half of them (95, 46.57%) have been running plays, which is 1st in the league. We're the only team above.500 that currently successfully does this, the two other teams that are run-heavy are SSK (104 running plays, 228 total offensive plays, 45.61%) and MTL (99 running plays, 213 offensive plays, 46.48%). After that, there is about a 10% drop-off in run-play % with each other team running the ball less than 40% of their offensive plays.
5. Although it is true we have 2nd most 2-and-outs in the league (24), the league average is 19, we're within 1 sigma of the league average, essentially meaning our offense is pretty much middle-of-the road in terms of 2-and-outs.
6. His completion % for deep passes (38.10%) is 3rd-worst in the league, though it should be noted he doesn't shy away from it (21 attempts, league average 21.3 among qualifying QBs). Interesting note here though, Reilly's deep pass completion % is only 28.13%... only QB who is worse is Mitchell (20.00%) though I'd attribute that to him playing hurt.
7. There does not appear to be any correlation between 300+ yard games and team winning percentage (R^2 value = .0872) league-wide, suggesting that this stat is practically irrelevant with respect to wins league-wide, not just for Nichols who is 4-0 with 0 300 yard games.
8. You guys made me late for work.

 

 

 

Well, this should earn post of the week right here, a ton of useful information.  I'm very curious about the deep ball completion thing though and wondering who is leading the league in it?  Either way he has been hitting TDs off of it.

As for the 2 and outs, I think it's just a bit too early yet to get too worked up over those.  I'd guess a good portion have come after we've had some fairly comfortable leads.  If they get worse as the season goes on and we become defective at moving the football in critical moments in September and October with the West on the line, then we can hit panic.  But right now, if we keep on building the leads like we are, those are absolutely not a big deal.

[sweep the leg]

20 hours ago, Noeller said:

Begging.........for a mod to lock this thread..........plzzzzzzzzzz?

Absolutely not! The back and forth between TBurg & USABomberfan is riveting...

[USABomberfan]

1 hour ago, sweep the leg said:

Absolutely not! The back and forth between TBurg & USABomberfan is riveting...

He can have the win for all I care, but doesn't matter.  I've permanently taken my position on the Nichols deep balls and I'm not going to change my mind NOT NOW NOT EVER!

[do or die]

Reading though this thread, again.... I have now decided to stake out a position, as well.

Copious amounts of gin.

[NorthernSkunk]

MY TV IS ON ! I can't wait to see Matty drop a ton of dimes tomorrow night.......  !

[USABomberfan]

31 minutes ago, NorthernSkunk said:

MY TV IS ON ! I can't wait to see Matty drop a ton of dimes tomorrow night.......  !

Congrats man, should be a good one

[Fatty Liver]

2 hours ago, Eternal optimist said:

4. Winnipeg's offense successfully runs the ball... alot! Of our total offensive plays (204), close to half of them (95, 46.57%) have been running plays, which is 1st in the league. We're the only team above.500 that currently successfully does this, the two other teams that are run-heavy are SSK (104 running plays, 228 total offensive plays, 45.61%) and MTL (99 running plays, 213 offensive plays, 46.48%). After that, there is about a 10% drop-off in run-play % with each other team running the ball less than 40% of their offensive plays.

Starting last season under Jones with the signing of  Collaros I'm convinced Sask. has been attempting to build a LaPo style offence, this season with the addition of Powell to duplicate the role Harris fills as the workhorse it looks even more so.  Their major failure lies in not investing enough to rebuild their Natl. O-line talent at the foundation, as well as not yet finding a consistent reliable QB.

[Rod Black]

1 hour ago, USABomberfan said:

He can have the win for all I care, but doesn't matter.  I've permanently taken my position on the Nichols deep balls and I'm not going to change my mind NOT NOW NOT EVER!

Point 7.   R^2 value = .0872  is objective proof you win the argument. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Rod Black

[blue_gold_84]

4 hours ago, Eternal optimist said:

8. You guys made me late for work.

Unless the boss is a greenie, I'm sure he'll understand. Priorities, man!

[Mark F]

7 hours ago, Rod Black said:

I haven’t seen sigma referenced in years. Thorough authoritative work you did there EO. 

 

Feb 19 this year

Quote

A study published Monday in the journal "Nature Climate Change" stated that "humanity cannot afford to ignore" the rising temperatures over the past four decades. According to Reuters, the authors wrote that the confidence level that human activities are causing temperatures to rise reached a five-sigma level.

I do not understand sigma level, tried but don't get it.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Mark F

[Mark H.]

3 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

Starting last season under Jones with the signing of  Collaros I'm convinced Sask. has been attempting to build a LaPo style offence, this season with the addition of Powell to duplicate the role Harris fills as the workhorse it looks even more so.  Their major failure lies in not investing enough to rebuild their Natl. O-line talent at the foundation, as well as not yet finding a consistent reliable QB.

I've been thinking the same thing - but their approach is beyond failure - it's fundamentally flawed. 

[Stats Junkie]

Here are the results from the Blue Bombers 4th quarter drives in 2019

Please note that this chart only includes drives that started in the 4th quarter. It does not include drives that may have started in Q3 and finished in Q4.

[Rod Black]

3 hours ago, Mark F said:

 

Feb 19 this year

I do not understand sigma level, tried but don't get it.

Typically It’s a degree of standard deviation used in process control reporting during manufacturing to reduce variation and waste. The less the deviation, the tighter the result of the product. A lay persons explanation. I’d suspect Eternal Optimist is an engineer or Quality fella in the aerospace industry or Duha Group as they are large employers in the city that utilize Six Sigma. 

[NorthernSkunk]

16 minutes ago, USABomberfan said:

Ladies and Gentlemen, looks like we're going to upgrade from Matt Nichols to that great hack QB Arbuckle.

 

Yup that guy who's taking Drew Willy bad sacks out there against the CFL's worst team.

Yup, that's our guy alright, the Almighty Nick Arbuckle.

 

Man ... I dread to think what would happen if people like AKAChip were running our front office

How much you had to drink tonight ?

[USABomberfan]

3 minutes ago, NorthernSkunk said:

How much you had to drink tonight ?

Nothing, but either way, so much for that golden calf being hyped

[AKAChip]

37 minutes ago, USABomberfan said:

Ladies and Gentlemen, looks like we're going to upgrade from Matt Nichols to that great hack QB Arbuckle.

 

Yup that guy who's taking Drew Willy bad sacks out there against the CFL's worst team.

Yup, that's our guy alright, the Almighty Nick Arbuckle.

 

Man ... I dread to think what would happen if people like AKAChip were running our front office

You’re awful holier than thou for someone whose next insightful post will be his first. 

[AKAChip]

41 minutes ago, USABomberfan said:

Ladies and Gentlemen, looks like we're going to upgrade from Matt Nichols to that great hack QB Arbuckle.

 

Yup that guy who's taking Drew Willy bad sacks out there against the CFL's worst team.

Yup, that's our guy alright, the Almighty Nick Arbuckle.

 

Man ... I dread to think what would happen if people like AKAChip were running our front office

I don’t even like to debate you because it’s like arguing with a child but you’re passing judgment on a 25-year old player in the first half of his third career start. You marry yourself to insane narratives like Arbuckle is Drew Willy and then laugh after he takes a couple sacks after having two great starts. It’s impossible to take you seriously. 

[USABomberfan]

1 minute ago, AKAChip said:

I don’t even like to debate you because it’s like arguing with a child but you’re passing judgment on a 25-year old player in the first half of his third career start. You marry yourself to insane narratives like Arbuckle is Drew Willy and then laugh after he takes a couple sacks after having two great starts. It’s impossible to take you seriously. 

You started the narrative.  YOUR FAULT

[Eternal optimist]

13 hours ago, USABomberfan said:

 I'm very curious about the deep ball completion thing though and wondering who is leading the league in it?

Nick Arbuckle leads the league in completion % as of Week 5 (68.8%), according to CFL, a "deep throw" is consider 20+ yards.

11 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

 I'm convinced Sask. has been attempting to build a LaPo style offence.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

9 hours ago, Mark F said:

I do not understand sigma level, tried but don't get it.

Ok - here's the best way I can explain sigma in layman's terms. If you're a doctor and you have two patients, and you measure their heartbeats per minute (bpm) 3 times each and the results are below:
Patient #1: 60 bpm / 60 bpm / 60 bpm
Patient #2: 100 bpm / 20 bpm / 60 bpm
They would both have the same average (60 bpms), but obviously patient #2 is in a much more concerning scenario. Sigma, a.k.a standard deviation measures how varied your data set is, in the example above, Patient #1 has standard deviation of 0, whereas Patient #2 has standard deviation of 40.
TLDR; Sigma/standard deviation is a way of telling you how varied a given data set is, it gives more information than just an average, as averages can often be misleading if you have numerous outliers that offset (such as Patient #2's heartbeat).