World Politics

[iHeart]

 

[bustamente]

Russian gas industry is so corrupt that they need foreign companies to help them move their products. BP and Shell have already pulled out their stakes, Exxon is still there but for how much longer 

[17to85]

Putin bet the farm on the rest of the world not caring and Ukraine just rolling over. Now that those things haven't happened I wonder just how crazy he actually is... will he slink away with his tail tucked or double down on a mistake...

[Tracker]

3 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

Putin bet the farm on the rest of the world not caring and Ukraine just rolling over. Now that those things haven't happened I wonder just how crazy he actually is... will he slink away with his tail tucked or double down on a mistake...

Putin's mindset will not allow him to countenance any defeat. If he or his generals decide that Ukraine is not worth the price they are paying, and decide to withdraw, the probability is that he will try to cripple it on his way out. This will involve destroying as much of the infrastructure and military as possible. There have been overt attacks on civilian targets already, so Russia has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity already. The scenario is different, but resistance in both Viet Nam and Afghanistan defeated much larger forces, and Russia was driven out of Afghanistan as well. The reasons for the US and Russian defeats were: the support of the great majority of inhabitants for the resistance and foreign supply of weapons to the local fighters. 

[Tracker]

37 minutes ago, JCon said:

You actually need to sell the oil to realize any gains. So, as long as there are sanctions in place and Russian oil cannot be bought/sold, then the worry about Putin getting richer is a nonstarter. 

You have to ask yourself, why do the alt-right always want to appease Putin and let him do what he wants? Hmmm.... 

As an example:

 

Pat Robertson says Vladimir Putin 'out of his mind' but 'compelled by God' to invade Ukraine
   
Christian Broadcasting Network founder, far-right conservative, and anti-LGBTQ activist Pat Robertson came out of retirement Monday to support Vladimir Putin, declaring the Russian President is being “compelled by God” to attack Ukraine.

Robertson, whose failure to become a practicing attorney led to him becoming a born-against Christian and turning failure that into a net worth reportedly in the hundreds of millions, acknowledged that Putin may be “out of his mind.”

"But at the same time, he’s being compelled by God. He went into the Ukraine, but that wasn’t his goal,” Robertson insisted. “His goal was to move against Israel ultimately,” Robertson claimed.

He also claimed Putin is supposed to be using Ukraine as a “staging ground for one of the armies, and across is Erdogan in Turkey.”

[johnzo]

the thought that I can't get out of my head right now is how many people are actively rooting for the apocalypse in the USA, so they can go home to Jesus, and how many of them have influence and power.

[bluto]

Just seems to me that the bulk of what I read/hear from pundits, talking heads and commenters seem to be of the belief that Russian command didn't wargame every single one of these scenarios and have a gameplan move ready ahead of time.

I just presume that they are way smarter and have access to way better data than we do and since they are the ones who took initiative, they get to calibrate their moves based on the responses by the opposition forces/economies/alliances/etc.

 

People are acting as if a complete rollover of Ukraine in a couple of days isn't a shocking victory. Most of us are old enough to remember how the US ran over Iraq to the outskirts of Baghdad in 2 weeks and how stunned the world was... well that was after the US "Shock and Awe" phase of bombing, rockets and artillery. Russia didn't even require that to completely roll-up Ukraine (despite it's zillions of dollars worth of weaponry the West has been giving it for years).

[SpeedFlex27]

Every despot has met their end violently. Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, Gaddaffi. They were all overthrown. I expect at some point the same thing will happen to Putin.

[Tracker]

48 minutes ago, bluto said:

Just seems to me that the bulk of what I read/hear from pundits, talking heads and commenters seem to be of the belief that Russian command didn't wargame every single one of these scenarios and have a gameplan move ready ahead of time.

I just presume that they are way smarter and have access to way better data than we do and since they are the ones who took initiative, they get to calibrate their moves based on the responses by the opposition forces/economies/alliances/etc.

 

People are acting as if a complete rollover of Ukraine in a couple of days isn't a shocking victory. Most of us are old enough to remember how the US ran over Iraq to the outskirts of Baghdad in 2 weeks and how stunned the world was... well that was after the US "Shock and Awe" phase of bombing, rockets and artillery. Russia didn't even require that to completely roll-up Ukraine (despite it's zillions of dollars worth of weaponry the West has been giving it for years).

The American rollover of Iraqi forces was only the first battle. They moved on to Afghanistan and became mired in two wars without an exit plan, and slunk out of Afghanistan defeated. They are still taking casualties in Iraq and remain bunkered in their fortresses, paying out billions to mercenaries to fight their battles. Ukraine is far from defeated, at least at this point. 

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatens-france-real-war-economic-collapse-medvedev-lemaire-2022-3

Quote

A top Russian official appeared to threaten France with "real war" on Tuesday as he responded to saber-rattling comments from the French finance minister about the effects of punitive Western sanctions.

In an interview with French radio on Tuesday morning, Bruno Le Maire said the West aimed to "cause the collapse of the Russian economy" through an "economic and financial war on Russia," for which the Russian population "will also pay the consequences."

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former prime minister and now deputy chairman of its security council, was quick to respond on Twitter.

He said: "A French minister said today that they have declared an economic war on us. Watch what you say, gentlemen! And don't forget that in the history of mankind, economic wars have often turned into real wars."

More embarrassing rhetoric from Russian "leadership."

Seems like a pretty ill-prepared and short-sighted invasion thus far.

[Bigblue204]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

Just seems to me that the bulk of what I read/hear from pundits, talking heads and commenters seem to be of the belief that Russian command didn't wargame every single one of these scenarios and have a gameplan move ready ahead of time.

I just presume that they are way smarter and have access to way better data than we do and since they are the ones who took initiative, they get to calibrate their moves based on the responses by the opposition forces/economies/alliances/etc.

 

People are acting as if a complete rollover of Ukraine in a couple of days isn't a shocking victory. Most of us are old enough to remember how the US ran over Iraq to the outskirts of Baghdad in 2 weeks and how stunned the world was... well that was after the US "Shock and Awe" phase of bombing, rockets and artillery. Russia didn't even require that to completely roll-up Ukraine (despite it's zillions of dollars worth of weaponry the West has been giving it for years).

Where are you seeing that it's been a complete roll over? As far as I know yhe capital is still under Ukraine control. Russia has taken airports and then lost them again. 

[the watcher]

35 minutes ago, johnzo said:

the thought that I can't get out of my head right now is how many people are actively rooting for the apocalypse in the USA, so they can go home to Jesus, and how many of them have influence and power.

I think it's really hard for most people in Canada and many other countries  to understand just how big , powerful, extreme  and frankly delusional  that segment of the US population is. We saw that a bit in the pandemic. I view them as no different than  the radical segment of Muslims dreaming of their virgins as they strap on a bomb.. Nutters all.

[Brandon]

This seems to make sense:

 

[Tracker]

18 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-threatens-france-real-war-economic-collapse-medvedev-lemaire-2022-3

More embarrassing rhetoric from Russian "leadership."

Seems like a pretty ill-prepared and short-sighted invasion thus far.

When the French prime minister was told of the veiled Russian threat, he replied that Russia should remember that France has nuclear missiles, too.

[bluto]

44 minutes ago, Tracker said:

The American rollover of Iraqi forces was only the first battle. They moved on to Afghanistan and became mired in two wars without an exit plan, and slunk out of Afghanistan defeated. They are still taking casualties in Iraq and remain bunkered in their fortresses, paying out billions to mercenaries to fight their battles. Ukraine is far from defeated, at least at this point. 

And you imagine that you can learn this lesson, but the Russian Generals can't?

[Tracker]

3 minutes ago, bluto said:

And you imagine that you can learn this lesson, but the Russian Generals can't?

Kinda hard (and dangerous) to say no to a dictator who has already killed a lot of people without remorse. 

[bluto]

Just now, Tracker said:

Kinda hard (and dangerous) to say no to a dictator who has already killed a lot of people without remorse. 

So the Russian Generals and Commanders aren't stupid, it's just that a Dictator they must follow is?

I'm not trying to tell anyone that they may be being lied to... but I have to ask: Is blowing up bridges, distributing weapons to civilians and releasing felons the actions of a Nation that is on the front foot here?

[johnzo]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

Just seems to me that the bulk of what I read/hear from pundits, talking heads and commenters seem to be of the belief that Russian command didn't wargame every single one of these scenarios and have a gameplan move ready ahead of time.

I just presume that they are way smarter and have access to way better data than we do and since they are the ones who took initiative, they get to calibrate their moves based on the responses by the opposition forces/economies/alliances/etc.

few things:

1. dictatorships are the opposite of meritocracies, because dictators hate and fear meritous subordinates.  Mussolini was famous for hiring idiots and for arranging intrigues to test and occupy his more capable subordinates ... while appearing to be above the fray, the one man in Italy who could untangle the mess.  Stalin killed anyone who looked like they had a clue, until World War II intervened and he had to back off a bit ... then he got back to the killing as soon as the crisis was over.  Hitler sacked commander after commander until he'd sacked the entire reality-based leadership of the Wehrmacht.  How capable is the Russian leadership structure, really?  How loyal is it to Putin?  When it hits reversals, will it stay loyal?  Obviously the dude is capable of running a personality cult and herding the oligarchs, but he has never been tested publicly the way he's being tested now.

2. War fever makes leaders do dumb, dumb things.  Look at Austria-Hungary and Italy in World War One.  Japan in 1930-1945.  Nazi Germany in 1941*. The USA in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Each of them started offensive wars they had no ability to win.

3. Putin has two massive strategic advantages: natural gas and nukes, but those are double-edged swords.  His subordinates have interest in those things too.

* Hitler managed to declare war on both the United States and the Soviet Union in 1941, which is the most hilarious self-own in the history of dictators.

Edited March 1, 2022 by johnzo

[Goalie]

Never knew putin was so short

This explains lots

He has SDS 

Small **** Syndrome 

Just like Kim and all them other tiny  dictators

Edited March 1, 2022 by Goalie

[johnzo]

5 minutes ago, bluto said:

So the Russian Generals and Commanders aren't stupid, it's just that a Dictator they must follow is?

I'm not trying to tell anyone that they may be being lied to... but I have to ask: Is blowing up bridges, distributing weapons to civilians and releasing felons the actions of a Nation that is on the front foot here?

and yeah, the Ukranians are in very tough, on paper this is a blowout, but they're not fighting on paper.

This is any given sunday territory, if the attackers don't execute well, they can underperform badly.  I don't know if this is a realistic hope, but it's the only one we've got.  Even the 2013 bombers won three games.

[bustamente]

This is such an odd image, why is Putin so far away, is he scared one of his own might kill him

[bigg jay]

4 minutes ago, bustamente said:

This is such an odd image, why is Putin so far away, is he scared one of his own might kill him

100% and as an added measure of security, he added a couple of buttons, just in case.

[Bigblue204]

9 minutes ago, bustamente said:

This is such an odd image, why is Putin so far away, is he scared one of his own might kill him

I've heard his actually quite afraid of covid....don't know how accurate that is 

[JCon]

1 minute ago, Bigblue204 said:

I've heard his actually quite afraid of covid....don't know how accurate that is 

Yes, I have heard the same. You don't see him interact with anyone. He keeps his distance. I have no doubt that he is paranoid about Covid and a lot of other things. 

[bluto]

4 hours ago, bustamente said:

 

Frankly this entire pose the UN types took mystifies me.

They're communicating that they aren't willing to listen to a single word that Russia has to say. 

Do they not imagine that Russia will have this in mind the next time they plan unilateral action? Do they imagine that there will be no further ones?

If NATO/US/EU isn't going to do jack-**** about it (they won't), and they're already being sanctioned-worse-than-any-country-ever, why wouldn't they just go on as they mean to?

Edited March 1, 2022 by bluto
words