World Politics

[SpeedFlex27]

As well as armed civilians who'll engage in guerilla warfare. There will be heavy Russian casualties even if they capture the Ukraine.  

[johnzo]

21 minutes ago, do or die said:

Russian air power has been mysteriously inert, so far, Ukrainian air defences have not been suppressed, yet  (huge surprise)

I wonder if they can even afford to fly their planes? Their GDP is smaller than Canada's but they're trying to operate a superpower-class military with hundreds / thousands of warplanes plus thousands of very expensive nukes (which need regular expensive maintenance or they become duds) plus a large fuel-hungry fleet of 1990s-vintage armored vehicles plus a two-ocean fleet.  I wonder how long they will be able to sustain their invasion of Ukraine?

[Tracker]

Just now, johnzo said:

I wonder if they can even afford to fly their planes? Their GDP is smaller than Canada's but they're trying to operate a superpower-class military with hundreds / thousands of warplanes plus thousands of very expensive nukes (which need regular expensive maintenance or they become duds) plus a large fuel-hungry fleet of 1990s-vintage armored vehicles plus a two-ocean fleet.  I wonder how long they will be able to sustain their invasion of Ukraine?

One thing history teaches us is that international events are often completely unpredictable. Who would have thought that a German private pilot could have both flown right into the heart of Russia, evading all radar and then brining down the whole government? There are so many moving parts to this crisis that it is near impossible to predict the path and outcome of it.

[johnzo]

17 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

As well as armed civilians who'll engage in guerilla warfare. There will be heavy Russian casualties even if they capture the Ukraine.  

yup.  Ukraine was the graveyard for a lot of SS, Gestapo, and Wehrmacht.  There's partisan warfare in the DNA there.

[do or die]

Ukraine has set up a website and telegram channel called 200rf.com - in reference to Cargo 200 - so that Russian families can track down and identify their sons.
Cargo 200 is the military identifier for transportation of dead bodies from the battlefield.  It became well known in Russia during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, when thousands of Soviet troops returned home in zinc coffins.

[johnzo]

just to do some comparables, Canada spent $1B (< 1% of GDP) on its peacetime air force in 2020.  In return for that we operate fewer than 100 CF-18s and about 300 other types (transport, helicopter, lift, patrol, training, etc. 

all things being equal (they're not, of course) you figure that if Putin is operating 10x the craft (3900 all types in a 2015 estimate) he's gotta be spending close to 10% of his GDP on his peacetime air force, before a single live bomb is dropped.  And that's just his air force.  And those planes rot if they're not kept up, you can't really defer maintenance on them, and aircrew require constant training.

Edited March 2, 2022 by johnzo

[SpeedFlex27]

40 minutes ago, johnzo said:

yup.  Ukraine was the graveyard for a lot of SS, Gestapo, and Wehrmacht.  There's partisan warfare in the DNA there.

I'm Ukrainian on my Mom's side. She was fluent in Ukrainian & English & could switch back & forth mid sentence. Something I didn't truly appreciate until she was gone & I was much older.

My Uncle absolutely hated Russians. All Russians. It didn't matter who they were or where they came from. Politicians or civilians he hated them all. I found that out one day when I was a teenager & made some flippant remark to him saying something like, "Russian & Ukrainian. It all sounds the same. There's no difference". I never saw him so angry with me as he was that day & said some things that set me straight in his broken English. Enough to know to never say anything like that again.

This was a man who saw his family suffer under Stalin in the 1930's & was conscripted to fight for the Soviets in WW2. I never found out the story of how he got out & came to Canada. Eventually marrying my Mom's sister. Now, it's too late. He's gone as are my parents, uncles & aunts. I have no cousins alive to ask either. It's sad that when people are alive we don't care to ask & then questions about family history go unanswered forever. I may still have family in the Ukraine for all I know. My Mom's family came to Canada in the first decade of the 20th Century & settled near Rossburn. My Mom was born in 1912 & died in 1985. So, I'll probably never know if anyone in the Ukraine today are family. 

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/united-nations-russia-ukraine-vote

Quote

The United Nations has voted overwhelmingly for a resolution deploring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for the immediate withdrawal of its forces, in a global expression of outrage that highlighted Russia’s increasing isolation.

In an emergency session of the UN’s general assembly, 141 of the 193 member states voted for the resolution, 35 abstained, and five voted against. The only countries to vote no in support of Moscow were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. Longstanding allies Cuba and Venezuela joined China in abstaining.

[the watcher]

13 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I'm Ukrainian on my Mom's side. She was fluent in Ukrainian & English & could switch back & forth mid sentence. Something I didn't truly appreciate until she was gone & I was much older.

My Uncle absolutely hated Russians. All Russians. It didn't matter who they were or where they came from. Politicians or civilians he hated them all. I found that out one day when I was a teenager & made some flippant remark to him saying something like, "Russian & Ukrainian. It all sounds the same. There's no difference". I never saw him so angry with me as he was that day & said some things that set me straight in his broken English. Enough to know to never say anything like that again.

This was a man who saw his family suffer under Stalin in the 1930's & was conscripted to fight for the Soviets in WW2. I never found out the story of how he got out & came to Canada. Eventually marrying my Mom's sister. Now, it's too late. He's gone as are my parents, uncles & aunts. I have no cousins alive to ask either. It's sad that when people are alive we don't care to ask & then questions about family history go unanswered forever. I may still have family in the Ukraine for all I know. My Mom's family came to Canada in the first decade of the 20th Century & settled near Rossburn. My Mom was born in 1912 & died in 1985. So, I'll probably never know if anyone in the Ukraine today are family. 

Thanks for that post. The Ukraine certainly took some awful abuse from Stalin. I'm not entirely up on that history but I know he took all the grains produced in the Ukraine at one point as a punishment . The number I recall is 10 million starved to death.

On another note I also really wished I had talked more to the generation before me and written it down. I've pieced some things togeather but wished I had more.

[Rich]

32 minutes ago, the watcher said:

Thanks for that post. The Ukraine certainly took some awful abuse from Stalin. I'm not entirely up on that history but I know he took all the grains produced in the Ukraine at one point as a punishment . The number I recall is 10 million starved to death.

On another note I also really wished I had talked more to the generation before me and written it down. I've pieced some things togeather but wished I had more.

Here is an article on what Stalin did to the Ukraine.

https://www.history.com/news/ukrainian-famine-stalin

Can see why the hatred runs deep with this kind of history.

[WildPath]

57 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I'm Ukrainian on my Mom's side. She was fluent in Ukrainian & English & could switch back & forth mid sentence. Something I didn't truly appreciate until she was gone & I was much older.

My Uncle absolutely hated Russians. All Russians. It didn't matter who they were or where they came from. Politicians or civilians he hated them all. I found that out one day when I was a teenager & made some flippant remark to him saying something like, "Russian & Ukrainian. It all sounds the same. There's no difference". I never saw him so angry with me as he was that day & said some things that set me straight in his broken English. Enough to know to never say anything like that again.

This was a man who saw his family suffer under Stalin in the 1930's & was conscripted to fight for the Soviets in WW2. I never found out the story of how he got out & came to Canada. Eventually marrying my Mom's sister. Now, it's too late. He's gone as are my parents, uncles & aunts. I have no cousins alive to ask either. It's sad that when people are alive we don't care to ask & then questions about family history go unanswered forever. I may still have family in the Ukraine for all I know. My Mom's family came to Canada in the first decade of the 20th Century & settled near Rossburn. My Mom was born in 1912 & died in 1985. So, I'll probably never know if anyone in the Ukraine today are family. 

I have a friend from Romania with a similar story. He's told me about how savagely the Russian's treated them in WW2 compared to the Nazis. We were talking and a kid came up to him to ask if he had a Russian accent. Harmless enough, but he turned red and got incensed. Unfortunately he really let that kid have it for an innocent enough mistake, but it shows the hatred for Russia that still exists. In my reading of Russian history, I'm sure it exists amongst the people of Russia currently as well.

[Noeller]

note for this thread: It's not The Ukraine, just as it isn't The Canada. It's just "Ukraine"....

[do or die]

Given the history of things..... Putin declaring that he was going into Ukraine to "de-Natzify" it, also removing its Jewish President..... was incredibly ridiculous, even by Russia propaganda standards. 
BTW, In the most recent Ukrainian parliamentary elections in 2019, a coalition of ultra-nationalist right-wing parties failed to win even a single seat in the Rada, the country's 450-member legislature.

16 minutes ago, Noeller said:

note for this thread: It's not The Ukraine, just as it isn't The Canada. It's just "Ukraine"....

Timely correction by The Noeller, there.....

Edited March 2, 2022 by do or die

[Bigblue204]

The more time I take to look into this, the more complicated it gets. I would no longer call one side or the other completely innocent....however as with all wars it will all come at the cost of working class peoples lives and homes.

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2022/03/backgrounder-canada-imposes-additional-economic-measures-on-russia-in-wake-of-its-military-attack-against-ukraine.html

Quote

Individuals

• Vladimir Vladimirovich PUTIN
• Sergei Kuzhugetovich SHOIGU
• Sergei Viktorovich LAVROV
• Konstantin Anatolyevich CHUYCHENKO
• Anton Germanovich SILUANOV
• Anton Eduardovich VAINO
• Mikhail Vladimirovich MISHUSTIN
• Vladimir Alexandrovich KOLOKOLTSEV
• Alexander Dmitryevich BEGLOV
• Dmitry Anatolyevich MEDVEDEV
• Yury Yakovlevich CHAIKA
• Alexander Vladimirovich GUTSAN
• Igor Anatolyevich KOMAROV
• Anatoly Anatolyevich SERYSHEV
• Sergei Semyonovich SOBYANIN
• Yury Petrovich TRUTNEV
• Vladimir Vladimirovich YAKUSHEV
• Vladimir Ivanovich BULAVIN

Entities

• Central Bank of the Russian Federation
• National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation
• Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation

Now maybe it's time to send any and all Russian diplomats here in Canada packing, too.

[bustamente]

Really someone in his orbit need to off him, they would be considered hero's around the world and in Russia, maybe then they could become a real democracy

 

[Sard]

1 minute ago, bustamente said:

Really someone in his orbit need to off him, they would be considered hero's around the world and in Russia, maybe then they could become a real democracy

 

Is it better for him to be assassinated, or to be captured and actually tried at The Hague?

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

Quote

WASHINGTON — A Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to senior Biden administration officials and a European official.

The report indicates that senior Chinese officials had some level of knowledge about Russia’s war plans or intentions before the invasion started last week. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia met with President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing on Feb. 4 before the opening ceremony of the Olympics. Moscow and Beijing issued a 5,000-word statement at the time declaring that their partnership had “no limits,” denouncing NATO enlargement and asserting that they would establish a new global order with true “democracy.”

The intelligence on the exchange between the Chinese and Russian officials was classified. It was collected by a Western intelligence service and considered credible by officials reviewing it. Senior officials in the United States and allied governments passed it around as they discussed when Mr. Putin might attack Ukraine.

However, different intelligence services had varying interpretations, and it is not clear how widely the information was shared.

 

One official familiar with the intelligence said the material did not necessarily indicate the conversations about an invasion took place at the level of Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. Other officials briefed on the intelligence declined to give further details. The officials spoke about the report on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence.

When asked by email on Wednesday whether Chinese officials had urged Russian officials to delay an invasion of Ukraine until after the Olympics, Liu Pengyu, the Chinese Embassy spokesman in Washington, said, “These claims are speculation without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China.”

 

[Mark F]

33 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

Now maybe it's time to send any and all Russian diplomats here in Canada packing, too.

Need to add Donald Trump to the list.

 

Things might be interesting for the Trump mob, when refinance time rolls around.
 

lol. Is he aware enough to be pooping in his diaper?

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Mark F

[Tracker]

A note of caution here. As much as many would like to spit vitriol at the Russians, and even though they were responsible for the starvation deaths of 6-8 million Ukrainians, and the killing of many more, Ukrainians have their skeletons in their closets as well. During WW2, a right-wing faction of partisans took advantage of the chaos to undertake ethic cleansing of ethnic Poles living in the area close to the Polish border and forced out or killed some 50-60,000 of them. This was an area claimed by both Ukraine and Poland, but that does not minimize the horror of the killings. 

[bigg jay]

23 minutes ago, Sard said:

Is it better for him to be assassinated, or to be captured and actually tried at The Hague?

Do you think he would allow himself to be taken alive?

[Mark F]

2 minutes ago, Tracker said:

A note of caution here. As much as many would like to spit vitriol at the Russians, and even though they were responsible for the starvation deaths of 6-8 million Ukrainians, and the killing of many more, Ukrainians have their skeletons in their closets as well. During WW2, a right-wing faction of partisans took advantage of the chaos to undertake ethic cleansing of ethnic Poles living in the area close to the Polish border and forced out or killed some 50-60,000 of them. This was an area claimed by both Ukraine and Poland, but that does not minimize the horror of the killings. 

Yes..... same goes for every corner of the world.  At some point group a was killing group b. Cause group b.....so on forever.

 

facking serbs are still angry about a five hundred year old war

[Sard]

17 minutes ago, bigg jay said:

Do you think he would allow himself to be taken alive?

Fair point

[bustamente]

A bullet to Putin's head ends all of this for the Russian people, the Ukrainians and the rest of the World. 

[Mark H.]

17 minutes ago, Mark F said:

Yes..... same goes for every corner of the world.  At some point group a was killing group b. Cause group b.....so on forever.

Indeed. Canada (BNA at the time) carries the honour (sarcasm) of having deliberately infected Aboriginals with small pox

My point being, you can find an excuse to invade pretty much every nation on the globe