World Politics

[bustamente]

If you are a foreigner especially an American living in Russia you might want to leave before you hear a knock on the door

Edited March 3, 2022 by bustamente

[Tracker]

15 hours ago, bustamente said:

Body bags for the Russian troops are mounting and parents are going to be receiving a body that was used as a pawn and didn't need to die, as for Putin targeting civilians especially children is about as low as it gets but that's what monsters do.

Everyone needs a heli pad

I believe this is the 600 million dollar yacht that was impounded in a French port yesterday. The intent is to sell the boat and donate the money for Ukrainian war effort and/or rebuilding.

[GCn20]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

You reckon that they want to?

They will have to if they want to install a puppet regime. The Ukrainian people will not sit idly by and let Putin install his government and then go home like nothing happened. If Russia kills Zelenskyy he will be a martyr that will galvanize Ukraine, if they don`t there is zero chance anybody could beat him in an election and zero chance that a puppet regime will be in place without vast military support if he is in exile somewhere.

[JCon]

Just now, GCn20 said:

They will have to if they want to install a puppet regime. The Ukrainian people will not sit idly by and let Putin install his government and then go home like nothing happened. If Russia kills Zelenskyy he will be a martyr that will galvanize Ukraine, if they don`t there is zero chance anybody could beat him in an election and zero chance that a puppet regime will be in place without vast military support if he is in exile somewhere.

They won't be able to install Yanukovych unless Zelenskyy is gone. If the Russians overrun the country, Zelenskyy needs to get out and set up his gov't in exile. 

[bluto]

8 minutes ago, JCon said:

They won't be able to install Yanukovych unless Zelenskyy is gone. If the Russians overrun the country, Zelenskyy needs to get out and set up his gov't in exile. 

I think that's a false binary.

Other options are on the table after Ukraine surrenders.

[GCn20]

8 minutes ago, bluto said:

I think that's a false binary.

Other options are on the table after Ukraine surrenders.

Ukraine is not going to surrender. I would think that much is clear by now. Russia likely takes military control of Ukraine at some point but there is zero chance of surrender and that is the biggest problem for Putin in all of this. He thought they would surrender and he was wrong. This is either a long term military occupation with severe consequences for Putin and Russia, or he saves face and leaves with some minor concessions from Ukraine. There is no chance that Russia wins the war, plants their flag, takes it`s military home and Ukraine is now part of Russia. That was Putin`s plan and it has badly blown up in his face.

Edited March 3, 2022 by GCn20

[blue_gold_84]

8 minutes ago, bluto said:

I think that's a false binary.

Other options are on the table after Ukraine surrenders.

According to whom? Ukraine has no interest in giving in to Putin and his bullshit narrative about liberating the country.

[GCn20]

5 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

According to whom? Ukraine has no interest in giving in to Putin and his bullshit narrative about liberating the country.

Yep. That is not a possibility anymore. Zelenskyy is insanely popular in Ukraine. They topple him and the Ukrainians will fight to the death, if they don`t the Ukrainians will fight to the death. Putin cannot win this war over the long term. He can occupy Ukraine but he will have to do so forever. 

Right now, I would think Putin is considering what he needs to do to save face and get the hell out of there. Ukraine would be wise to take that approach in peace talks today,

25 minutes ago, JCon said:

They won't be able to install Yanukovych unless Zelenskyy is gone. If the Russians overrun the country, Zelenskyy needs to get out and set up his gov't in exile. 

I think the Yanukovych train is dead at the station now no matter what. No way the Ukrainian people support him in any way, they know he is Putin`s puppet.

Edited March 3, 2022 by GCn20

[JCon]

8 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

According to whom? Ukraine has no interest in giving in to Putin and his bullshit narrative about liberating the country.

There are some that desperately want Ukraine to surrender.  

[bluto]

There's more than one way to interpret the word "surrender".

But surely, one is coming.

2 minutes ago, JCon said:

There are some that desperately want Ukraine to surrender.  

When there is no forseeable Win-Condition for them, ultimately it is likely the way forward with the least amount of human suffering.

[JCon]

4 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

I think the Yanukovych train is dead at the station now no matter what. No way the Ukrainian people support him in any way, they know he is Putin`s puppet.

Russia will install Yanukovych. They've done it before and continue to do it. You don't have to be popular if you control the gov't and the military. 

[blue_gold_84]

5 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

Yep. That is not a possibility anymore. Zelenskyy is insanely popular in Ukraine. They topple him and the Ukrainians will fight to the death, if they don`t the Ukrainians will fight to the death. Putin cannot win this war over the long term. He can occupy Ukraine but he will have to do so forever. 

It was never a possibility, IMO. At least not recently (2014 to now). Ukraine's had aspirations to be a sovereign independent nation going back to the 90s, a fact that's never sat well with Putin since he came to power.

Just now, JCon said:

There are some that desperately want Ukraine to surrender.  

It's baffling. But I'd say it speaks to their ignorance as it pertains to Ukraine's contentious history with Russia since the last century.

[SpeedFlex27]

If the Russians kill Zelensky &/or his family then he (they) have become martyrs. Nothing Putin does will diminish that. In a lot of ways Putin may win the battles militarily but lose the war as he won't crush the spirits of Ukrainians. Zelensky will inspire the Ukrainians to fight back. No Russian will be safe. Thousands of Russians will die. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by SpeedFlex27

[JCon]

Just now, blue_gold_84 said:

It's baffling. But I'd say it speaks to their ignorance as it pertains to Ukraine's contentious history with Russia since the last century.

I think you're confusing ignorance with their desire for Russia to succeed. Putin has many backers with the Rebel, Fox, and the other alt-right media. 

[blue_gold_84]

Just now, JCon said:

I think you're confusing ignorance with their desire for Russia to succeed. Putin has many backers with the Rebel, Fox, and the other alt-right media. 

[HardCoreBlue]

27 minutes ago, JCon said:

I think you're confusing ignorance with their desire for Russia to succeed. Putin has many backers with the Rebel, Fox, and the other alt-right media. 

Yup some just cloak it with ‘Think about the human suffering, think of the children’ bull ****.

[Mark F]

41 minutes ago, JCon said:

I think you're confusing ignorance with their desire for Russia to succeed. Putin has many backers with the Rebel, Fox, and the other alt-right media. 

The far left and far right have converged on this. 

Fox news, tucker carlson, rebel media, and counterpunch/Jacobin /Amy Goodman, Code Pink, are In full agreement:

"Ukraine invasion,Its all America and Europe's fault. Anyway, not really that bad after all."

it's  here too. 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Mark F

[GCn20]

50 minutes ago, bluto said:

There's more than one way to interpret the word "surrender".

But surely, one is coming.

When there is no forseeable Win-Condition for them, ultimately it is likely the way forward with the least amount of human suffering.

How do you suggest that there is no forseeable win condition for them? The longer this war goes the more likely they win and keep their independance. One country does not have to outgun another to win a war. Ukraine is winning this war right now and will continue to do so. The only way they lose is if they surrender.

[GCn20]

52 minutes ago, JCon said:

Russia will install Yanukovych. They've done it before and continue to do it. You don't have to be popular if you control the gov't and the military. 

Different now. You can't control things without at least some level of compliance from the people you are trying to control. Ukraine and it's army will not ever follow the direction of Putin or any of his puppets. In order for Putin or his puppet to have control it will take military occupation by Russia to gain compliance of the people. Russia's economy cannot survive it.

[bluto]

8 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

How do you suggest that there is no forseeable win condition for them? The longer this war goes the more likely they win and keep their independance. One country does not have to outgun another to win a war. Ukraine is winning this war right now and will continue to do so. The only way they lose is if they surrender.

You don't see Russia "liberating" the Luhansk & Donetsk People's Republics and leaving behind a massive Russian force count in them and the Crimea, for "insurance", smashing Ukraine's military into dirt and them f'ing off home as a loss for Ukraine?

[Fatty Liver]

2 hours ago, GCn20 said:

Different now. You can't control things without at least some level of compliance from the people you are trying to control. Ukraine and it's army will not ever follow the direction of Putin or any of his puppets. In order for Putin or his puppet to have control it will take military occupation by Russia to gain compliance of the people. Russia's economy cannot survive it.

Here's how you get compliance of a resistant population, you line those who resist up against a wall and shoot them in the head.  Most citizens will fall in line quickly (see occupied France 1940-44) in order to preserve life and go about their business in peace, those who resist will live in ultimate peril with no protection or rights were the possession of any weapon is a death sentence.  It's all been done before and the Russians are the very people who did it (see iron curtain 1945-91). 

Yes, the Ukraine will be occupied

No the population will not be happy with the arrangement, but they will mostly comply (see iron curtain 1945-91). 

Choose life under occupation, or death.

The best hope for victory is continued economic and social sanctions against Russia, which hopefully in time will lead to a  regime change, A "people's army" have no chance of resisting the Russian military for more than a few weeks.  

Edited March 3, 2022 by Fatty Liver

[JCon]

16 minutes ago, Fatty Liver said:

Here's how you get compliance of a resistant population, you line those who resist up against a wall and shoot them in the head.  Most citizens will fall in line quickly (see occupied France 1940-44) in order to preserve life and go about their business in peace, those who resist will live in ultimate peril with no protection or rights were the possession of any weapon is a death sentence.  It's all been done before and the Russians are the very people who did it (see iron curtain 1945-91). 

Yes, the Ukraine will be occupied

No the population will not be happy with the arrangement, but they will mostly comply (see iron curtain 1945-91). 

Choose life under occupation, or death.

The best hope for victory is continued economic and social sanctions against Russia, which hopefully in time will lead to a  regime change, A "people's army" have no chance of resisting the Russian military for more than a few weeks.  

This. 

At best, they'll have a well supplied guerilla campaign and continue to resist Russian occupation. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by JCon

[GCn20]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

You don't see Russia "liberating" the Luhansk & Donetsk People's Republics and leaving behind a massive Russian force count in them and the Crimea, for "insurance", smashing Ukraine's military into dirt and them f'ing off home as a loss for Ukraine?

No. I see that as a lost battle, but certainly not the war. What is different about your scenario than what has been in place since 2014. Putin cannot win this war because the international community will never recognize his borders or sovereignty over the region. They are occupiers of Ukrainian territory and nothing more in the eyes of the world. Secondly, the need for Russia to leave massive amounts of troops in place is not f'ing off home. It is occupation...nothing more and that is not a won war.

Edited March 3, 2022 by GCn20

[GCn20]

27 minutes ago, Fatty Liver said:

Here's how you get compliance of a resistant population, you line those who resist up against a wall and shoot them in the head.  Most citizens will fall in line quickly (see occupied France 1940-44) in order to preserve life and go about their business in peace, those who resist will live in ultimate peril with no protection or rights were the possession of any weapon is a death sentence.  It's all been done before and the Russians are the very people who did it (see iron curtain 1945-91). 

Yes, the Ukraine will be occupied

No the population will not be happy with the arrangement, but they will mostly comply (see iron curtain 1945-91). 

Choose life under occupation, or death.

The best hope for victory is continued economic and social sanctions against Russia, which hopefully in time will lead to a  regime change, A "people's army" have no chance of resisting the Russian military for more than a few weeks.  

Unfortunately what you are describing is a war crime under the Geneva convention now. You cannot line up people against a wall and shoot them and the world cannot pretend it doesn't know and turn it's back anymore. Life is different than in 1945, the Geneva convention outlawed all the things you are describing as war crimes and life has changed since 1991 because it is near impossible to not have that kind of information leaked and broadcast to the whole world within minutes of it occurring. The world could pretend it didn't know about such atrocities and people couldn't provide proof it was happening. Now these things occur but are broadcast in real time by anyone with an internet connection and a flip phone. Bottom line this is 2022, what was done in the past is no longer relevant. The world has changed.

So long as Russia is occupying a sovereign nation with no pretext for doing so they will be sanctioned. The longer the sanctions go the more it weakens Putin's grip on power. Eventually. either his own people remove him or he can no longer fund his war machine and the rest of the world steps in and gives him his day at the end of the rope in The Hague.

His only path to victory was a combination of Ukraine not putting up any resistance, and the West sitting idly by. He grieviously miscalculated on both fronts.

Edited March 3, 2022 by GCn20

[Rich]

Hypothetical question here.  As more natural resources start becoming available in the arctic and Russia decides they want access to them and starts annexing parts of Canada, would you stand by and fall in line or would you fight for your way of life and country?   

Don't want to get into a debate on whether or not the US would ever allow that to happen, but trying to put yourself in the shoes of being a citizen of an invaded country.