Nichols out for the year

[AKAChip]

Gotta wonder what the narrative would have been if 5(!) of the 7 wins that Nichols started weren’t against BC, Toronto or Ottawa. But yes, all QB wins can be judged in a vacuum. Put Streveler in those games and throw in the second Toronto game too and the Bombers don’t win at least five, probably all six of those games?

[JCon]

Bombers never win, only get lucky sometimes. 

2 minutes ago, JuranBoldenRules said:

No, talking about QB Rating generally.  About as relevant as save percentage for a goalie, more of a team stat in the short-term and prone to inflation/deflation in a small sample.

BLM is basically playing through an injury that should probably be season-ending and just had elbow and shoulder surgery on his throwing arm last off-season.  Is it surprising Dickenson knows how to run a screen game?

You said Nichols only dumps two-yarders but still keeps up with the rest of the QBs in terms of average yards. 

[JuranBoldenRules]

2 minutes ago, JCon said:

Bombers never win, only get lucky sometimes. 

You said Nichols only dumps two-yarders but still keeps up with the rest of the QBs in terms of average yards. 

Average yards?  We're talking QB rating which has little to do with yards.  QBR would be inflated for a QB who does not go downfield very much because he will have fewer incompletions, which does factor in.

Edited October 1, 2019 by JuranBoldenRules

[trueBlue83]

3 minutes ago, JuranBoldenRules said:

Janarion Grant beat Calgary.

and if you look at my previous point, it was mentioned that Defence & Special teams contributed largely to our winning record early on.  So.... it's not as simple as Wins & Losses and QB efficiency rating!  Gotta look at the overall body of work!  And to me, Nichols only really had a couple of good games this season.  For the most part, it was was relatively mediocre performances.

[AKAChip]

I mean, it’s clear as day that once the defence and special teams stopped scoring, the wins have come less frequently. If anyone wants to put the credit or blame on the QB change, you’re fighting a losing battle. 

[rebusrankin]

Why bring back a QB who's numbers have declined the past two seasons, will be 33 and just had a serious injury to his throwing shoulder?

[trueBlue83]

5 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

Why bring back a QB who's numbers have declined the past two seasons, will be 33 and just had a serious injury to his throwing shoulder?

Because he's a good character guy, and he says he had his best season ever!    This is going to be all about dollars at this point.  If he really wants to be back with the club, he's got to be looking at taking a team friendly deal, not swinging for a home run pay day!

[wbbfan]

55 minutes ago, JCon said:

Nichols efficiency rating is 107.2, which is the highest of any QB in the CFL. I know only yards count on this board and not wins but guy was having a great year. 

Whats darvin adams QBR again? 150 ish? Its the ratio of first downs to 2 n outs. Especially in the second half of games. Thats always been the issue. 

38 minutes ago, JuranBoldenRules said:

How do sacks factor into that?  QB rushing?  A QB that avoids INT's and throws a good number of TD's on short fields looks like a God by that stat, even if he took 5-6 unnecessary sacks that game that derailed the offense.  A bunch of 2 yard throws for completions, perfect score.  Really only useful with a huge data set to iron out that kind of stuff.  Like if we want to compare two QB's with decade long careers.

People trying to take single stats and un correlated stats (positional wins, some one please tell me dunigans career w/l. Or damon allens, or any one else for that matter) 

Completing 70% of your passes isnt the same if you are in a system like reilly was in edm, vs a qb here. Qb rating and TD rate are heavily skewed when youre average field position is 15 yards a head of the rest of the league, and when you lead the league in virtually every rushing category. And the importance of not going 2 and out when your defense is designed to bend but not break is extremely high. 

Nichols is in a bad spot. He was putting up a lot of tds and wins, then started to skuffle and then will have missed more then half a season. Combine that with the fact that the injured starters will be healthy for next camp, and soo many young qbs looking good the market will be very weak for him .

The depth of starters in the league going into next year is very good. Masoli, Reilly, BLM, harris, Evans, Arbuckle, Fajardo, Vaj, MBt, Nichols, and to a lesser extent Streveler and Franklin. Im sure we will see some spreading out of the names, with certain guys chasing starting jobs. 

Nichols will have missed half of this year, 4 games the previous year, and be 2 years removed from his best season. If you are faced with finding a new starter, basically just ottawa right now, do you go after some one like arbuckle, franklin or streveler with tons of up side or a 34 year old nichols? If you go after nichols or even masoli you want them in combination with one of those guys. 

Nichols doesnt have leverage. If ott goes for masoli, all of a sudden this is the only open starting job on the market. I think we will see one of the argos qbs moved, the cats embrace evans, and I think its likely the stamps thing out too. Streveler may or may not take the job. But the flourishing of new qbs around the league and hungry vets that missed time this year coming back the league will not be short on starting qbs next year. 

[AKAChip]

5 minutes ago, trueBlue83 said:

Because he's a good character guy, and he says he had his best season ever!    This is going to be all about dollars at this point.  If he really wants to be back with the club, he's got to be looking at taking a team friendly deal, not swinging for a home run pay day!

I think we all know that for better or for worse, he’s coming back next season. He is the ultimate MOS guy based on extensive evidence and it would take a momentous event to change that. 

[wbbfan]

30 minutes ago, JCon said:

Bombers never win, only get lucky sometimes. 

You said Nichols only dumps two-yarders but still keeps up with the rest of the QBs in terms of average yards. 

Because he was throwing far less passes a game. Its the same way rider fans used to argue that kenton keith was better then charles roberts with a YPC of 7 vs blinks 5+ in 2.5x more touches. 

[wbbfan]

3 minutes ago, AKAChip said:

I think we all know that for better or for worse, he’s coming back next season. He is the ultimate MOS guy based on extensive evidence and it would take a momentous event to change that. 

I think this team is going to be making changes in the off season, and I think itll be plops head on the block. Maybe hall too. 

I suspect nichols will be back on a shorter deal, with less money. Maybe an incentive laden deal. Which I would prefer over bringing in masoli on similar money. But I could see the upper management swinging for the fences and making a move for a new face. Id say 20% chance that happens. 

[AKAChip]

It’s definitely worth compiling the teams’ average starting field position for Nichols’ drives compared to Streveler’s. I realize it won’t change any minds but it would be very telling. 

[wbbfan]

23 minutes ago, AKAChip said:

It’s definitely worth compiling the teams’ average starting field position for Nichols’ drives compared to Streveler’s. I realize it won’t change any minds but it would be very telling. 

It would be interesting to see. Yeah in a certain camp of fans only wins count, even if they arent produced at all by qbing. We still enjoy the best average starting field position in the league, but it has declined a good bit recently. Whats an even bigger deal is missing harris, then going away from running with him last game. Plus the kids gloves playbook streveler was playing with up until we fell deep behind against hammy. 

For streveler to be effective we have to maintain the runs with harris, and let him stretch the field deep. Let more of his runs come from when the defense is deep down field covering wrs and he has room to do some damage with his legs. Less QB draws up the gut. 

[Brandon]

The club isn't clueless, they know Nichols is done as the 1a starter. I think Ottawa offers his starter money.

[wbbfan]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

The club isn't clueless, they know Nichols is done as the 1a starter. I think Ottawa offers his starter money.

Mostly agree. Though I think/hope that ott is gonna go all in on Masoli. Itll be interesting to see if jennings and davis ever hold a clipboard again in this league after this year. Im expecting not. 

 

[SpeedFlex27]

48 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

Mostly agree. Though I think/hope that ott is gonna go all in on Masoli. Itll be interesting to see if jennings and davis ever hold a clipboard again in this league after this year. Im expecting not. 

 

There's always teams that will sign them hard as it is to believe.

[Brandon]

Jennings will fit in well with Saskatchewan....

[sweep the leg]

1 hour ago, wbbfan said:

Mostly agree. Though I think/hope that ott is gonna go all in on Masoli. Itll be interesting to see if jennings and davis ever hold a clipboard again in this league after this year. Im expecting not. 

 

Davis is good enough to be a backup. Jennings might be done.

[17to85]

15 hours ago, AKAChip said:

It’s definitely worth compiling the teams’ average starting field position for Nichols’ drives compared to Streveler’s. I realize it won’t change any minds but it would be very telling. 

This is one of the things that is not getting nearly enough attention after the Hamilton game... they took so many penalties on punt and kick returns it seemed like every drive was starting deep in their own end, and coupled with Medlock being ass for a 2nd straight game the field position which they usually fair well in was just awful. 

This team relies on all 3 phases doing their jobs, but it really did not get any help from any phase vs. Hamilton. 

[Tracker]

10 hours ago, sweep the leg said:

Davis is good enough to be a backup. Jennings might be done.

As the RedBacks are demonstrating, any team that can do not better than these two is in trouble.

[AKAChip]

Medlock gets and to a degree deserves a lot of rope but damn has he had a rough season by his standards. 

[GCn20]

16 hours ago, AKAChip said:

I think we all know that for better or for worse, he’s coming back next season. He is the ultimate MOS guy based on extensive evidence and it would take a momentous event to change that. 

I would agree with you, however, Strev is also an OSH guy and I think that is the direction we will go.

[trueBlue83]

2 minutes ago, gcn11 said:

I would agree with you, however, Strev is also an OSH guy and I think that is the direction we will go.

I don't get this "He's an O'Shea guy" ???  Aren't they all??

Streveler is a fiery guy... I don't think that would change under another coach!

Edited October 2, 2019 by trueBlue83

[Blueandgold]

57 minutes ago, AKAChip said:

Medlock gets and to a degree deserves a lot of rope but damn has he had a rough season by his standards. 

This is a key point. Big misses in the losses against Montreal and Toronto (IIRC on that one). 

[Mark H.]

7 hours ago, Blueandgold said:

This is a key point. Big misses in the losses against Montreal and Toronto (IIRC on that one). 

Making Any FG beyond 50 yards is a bonus.  It’s the marginal teams that rely on those...