Covid-19

[rebusrankin]

This is not an in depth analysis but Pallister has just acted like a **** too often during this crisis. (See Hydro cuts as one example).

[Tracker]

9 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

This is not an in depth analysis but Pallister has just acted like a **** too often during this crisis. (See Hydro cuts as one example).

Nothing new here. Thatcher in Britain once said that she wanted a "good" crisis so that she could slash government without opposition, and junior Bush said pretty much the same thing. Its a conservative sort of thing.

[blue_gold_84]

40 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

I think he and Manitoba have done a good job with the public health matters.

I'll give him credit for heeding the advice of Roussin. Making science-based decisions has helped our province in handling this pandemic.

[Noeller]

Just now, blue_gold_84 said:

I'll give him credit for heeding the advice of Roussin. Making science-based decisions has helped our province in handling this pandemic.

Yeah, I was saying the same thing about Kenney here in AB. The guy is a first class *******, for sure, but he's at least got the brains to understand that the health professionals are the ones who know what's going on and you have to listen to them first and foremost. Let the Chief Medical Officers of Health do their thing...that's what they're there for .

[SpeedFlex27]

I'm starting to go nuts hearing commercial after commercial saying. "We're in this together". Or, "We're here for you". No, they're not.  They're saying that in hopes I'll buy something from them.

[Stretch]

3 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I'm starting to go nuts hearing commercial after commercial saying. "We're in this together". Or, "We're here for you". No, they're not.  They're saying that in hopes I'll buy something from them.

I look forward to when most commercials don't start with "In these uncertain times...".

[Sard]

48 minutes ago, Stretch said:

I look forward to when most commercials don't start with "In these uncertain times...".

I do appreciated that the commercials aren't yelling at me right now though.  That's been a welcome change.

[HardCoreBlue]

5 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I'm starting to go nuts hearing commercial after commercial saying. "We're in this together". Or, "We're here for you". No, they're not.  They're saying that in hopes I'll buy something from them.

Chris D'Elia puts it the best. No we're not friends. I don't want to be your friend. Just give me a discount.

[pigseye]

Wow, you go girl!

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/medical/oldest-woman-in-spain-survives-coronavirus-at-age-113/ar-BB142g8r?ocid=spartanntp

 

[JCon]

I might have missed this being posted but it has a ton of useful (and new to me) information on the spread (the how) of Covid.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

A sample from the article but I recommend everyone read the full article and Dr. Bromage's background and disclaimers (also linked in the article).

How much Virus is released into the environment?

 

A Bathroom: Bathrooms have a lot of high touch surfaces, door handles, faucets, stall doors. So fomite transfer risk in this environment can be high. We still do not know whether a person releases infectious material in feces or just fragmented virus, but we do know that toilet flushing does aerosolize many droplets. Treat public bathrooms with extra caution (surface and air), until we know more about the risk.

 

A Cough: A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. Most droplets are large, and fall quickly (gravity), but many do stay in the air and can travel across a room in a few seconds.

A Sneeze: A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).

If a person is infected, the droplets in a single cough or sneeze may contain as many as 200,000,000 (two hundred million) virus particles which can all be dispersed into the environment around them.

 

A breath: A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled.

 

Unlike sneezing and coughing which release huge amounts of viral material, the respiratory droplets released from breathing only contain low levels of virus. We don't have a number for SARS-CoV2 yet, but we can use influenza as a guide. Studies have shown that a person infected with influenza can releases up to 33 infectious viral particles per minute. But I'm going to use 20 to keep the math simple.

 

 

[JCon]

Also from the same article (blog, really): 

So now let’s get to the crux of it. Where are the personal dangers from reopening?

 

When you think of outbreak clusters, what are the big ones that come to mind? Most people would say cruise ships. But you would be wrong. Ship outbreaks, while concerning, don’t land in the top 50 outbreaks to date.

 

Ignoring the terrible outbreaks in nursing homes, we find that the biggest outbreaks are in prisons, religious ceremonies, and workplaces, such as meat packing facilities and call centers. Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble.

 

Some of the biggest super-spreading events are:

• Meat packing: In meat processing plants, densely packed workers must communicate to one another amidst the deafening drum of industrial machinery and a cold-room virus-preserving environment. There are now outbreaks in 115 facilities across 23 states, 5000+ workers infected, with 20 dead. (ref)

• Weddings, funerals, birthdays: 10% of early spreading events

• Business networking: Face-to-face business networking like the Biogen Conference in Boston in late February.

As we move back to work, or go to a restaurant, let’s look at what can happen in those environments.

Restaurants: Some really great shoe-leather epidemiology demonstrated clearly the effect of a single asymptomatic carrier in a restaurant environment (see below). The infected person (A1) sat at a table and had dinner with 9 friends. Dinner took about 1 to 1.5 hours. During this meal, the asymptomatic carrier released low-levels of virus into the air from their breathing. Airflow (from the restaurant's various airflow vents) was from right to left. Approximately 50% of the people at the infected person's table became sick over the next 7 days. 75% of the people on the adjacent downwind table became infected. And even 2 of the 7 people on the upwind table were infected (believed to happen by turbulent airflow). No one at tables E or F became infected, they were out of the main airflow from the air conditioner on the right to the exhaust fan on the left of the room. (Ref)

Workplaces: Another great example is the outbreak in a call center (see below). A single infected employee came to work on the 11th floor of a building. That floor had 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people became infected (43.5%: the blue chairs). 92 of those 94 people became sick (only 2 remained asymptomatic). Notice how one side of the office is primarily infected, while there are very few people infected on the other side. While exact number of people infected by respiratory droplets / respiratory exposure versus fomite transmission (door handles, shared water coolers, elevator buttons etc.) is unknown. It serves to highlight that being in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection. Another 3 people on other floors of the building were infected, but the authors were not able to trace the infection to the primary cluster on the 11th floor. Interestingly, even though there were considerable interaction between workers on different floors of the building in elevators and the lobby, the outbreak was mostly limited to a single floor (ref). This highlights the importance of exposure and time in the spreading of SARS-CoV2.

Choir: The community choir in Washington State. Even though people were aware of the virus and took steps to minimize transfer; e.g. they avoided the usual handshakes and hugs hello, people also brought their own music to avoid sharing, and socially distanced themselves during practice. They even went to the lengths to tell choir members prior to practice that anyone experiencing symptoms should stay home. A single asymptomatic carrier infected most of the people in attendance. The choir sang for 2 1/2 hours, inside an enclosed rehearsal hall which was roughly the size of a volleyball court.

Singing, to a greater degree than talking, aerosolizes respiratory droplets extraordinarily well. Deep-breathing while singing facilitated those respiratory droplets getting deep into the lungs. Two and half hours of exposure ensured that people were exposed to enough virus over a long enough period of time for infection to take place. Over a period of 4 days, 45 of the 60 choir members developed symptoms, 2 died. The youngest infected was 31, but they averaged 67 years old. (corrected link)

Indoor sports: While this may be uniquely Canadian, a super spreading event occurred during a curling event in Canada. A curling event with 72 attendees became another hotspot for transmission. Curling brings contestants and teammates in close contact in a cool indoor environment, with heavy breathing for an extended period. This tournament resulted in 24 of the 72 people becoming infected. (ref)

Birthday parties / funerals: Just to see how simple infection-chains can be, this is a real story from Chicago. The name is fake. Bob was infected but didn't know. Bob shared a takeout meal, served from common serving dishes, with 2 family members. The dinner lasted 3 hours. The next day, Bob attended a funeral, hugging family members and others in attendance to express condolences. Within 4 days, both family members who shared the meal are sick. A third family member, who hugged Bob at the funeral became sick. But Bob wasn't done. Bob attended a birthday party with 9 other people. They hugged and shared food at the 3 hour party. Seven of those people became ill. Over the next few days Bob became sick, he was hospitalized, ventilated, and died.

But Bob's legacy lived on. Three of the people Bob infected at the birthday went to church, where they sang, passed the tithing dish etc. Members of that church became sick. In all, Bob was directly responsible for infecting 16 people between the ages of 5 and 86. Three of those 16 died.

The spread of the virus within the household and back out into the community through funerals, birthdays, and church gatherings is believed to be responsible for the broader transmission of COVID-19 in Chicago. (ref)

Sobering right?

 

There are helpful diagrams in the article, which won't copy over, that help to illustrate some of the examples. 

 

[The Unknown Poster]

Yeah but what does he know 

 

[HardCoreBlue]

27 minutes ago, JCon said:

I might have missed this being posted but it has a ton of useful (and new to me) information on the spread (the how) of Covid.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

A sample from the article but I recommend everyone read the full article and Dr. Bromage's background and disclaimers (also linked in the article).

How much Virus is released into the environment?

 

A Bathroom: Bathrooms have a lot of high touch surfaces, door handles, faucets, stall doors. So fomite transfer risk in this environment can be high. We still do not know whether a person releases infectious material in feces or just fragmented virus, but we do know that toilet flushing does aerosolize many droplets. Treat public bathrooms with extra caution (surface and air), until we know more about the risk.

 

A Cough: A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. Most droplets are large, and fall quickly (gravity), but many do stay in the air and can travel across a room in a few seconds.

A Sneeze: A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).

If a person is infected, the droplets in a single cough or sneeze may contain as many as 200,000,000 (two hundred million) virus particles which can all be dispersed into the environment around them.

 

A breath: A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled.

 

Unlike sneezing and coughing which release huge amounts of viral material, the respiratory droplets released from breathing only contain low levels of virus. We don't have a number for SARS-CoV2 yet, but we can use influenza as a guide. Studies have shown that a person infected with influenza can releases up to 33 infectious viral particles per minute. But I'm going to use 20 to keep the math simple.

 

 

What’s maddening to me about some human beings in reading this is how easy it is to stop the spread: Regularly wash your hands when out in public, keep hand sanitizer with you wherever you go, cover your mouth with both hands cupped over your mouth and nose when coughing no matter what the reason it is you’re coughing, bury your mouth and nose between your forearm and bicep when sneezing, when you’re not feeling well, minimize as much as possible where you go in public, ensure places of business are following good hygienic practices in keeping their establishments clean and disinfected. I’m sure I’m missing some here but for the people who have the physical and mental ability to follow these practices but chose not to I am at a loss of words in explaining to you how important these are. Btw these easy practices to adopt were important pre pandemic as well, they just didn’t come up because of this stupid plague.

[Tracker]

38 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Yeah but what does he know 

 

Well that's gonna get him fired. Again.

[Tracker]

 

 

                                                 

[Mr Dee]

On 2020-05-13 at 10:29 AM, Tracker said:

Team Trump Pushes CDC to Revise Down Its COVID Death Counts

Team Everybody Else pushing the idea that Trump’s poll numbers should be Revised Down..

[The Unknown Poster]

5 minutes ago, Mr Dee said:

Team Everybody Else pushing the idea that Trump’s poll numbers should be Revised Down..

"Why do you have to count EVERY dead person?  Cant we just count the white people?" 

[Mr Dee]

Finally, the real reason...

 

[pigseye]

Sad, politics before safety and common sense,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/dark-stain-minister-says-indigenous-ceremonies-to-continue-despite-covid-19/ar-BB145zVp?ocid=spartandhp

[The Unknown Poster]

5 minutes ago, pigseye said:

Sad, politics before safety and common sense,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/dark-stain-minister-says-indigenous-ceremonies-to-continue-despite-covid-19/ar-BB145zVp?ocid=spartandhp

Its not political, its cultural.  

[Noeller]

not sure if anyone posted this yet, but MB still kickin' ass.........

 

[pigseye]

10 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Its not political, its cultural.  

It's dangerous, plain and simple. 

[Mark H.]

38 minutes ago, Noeller said:

not sure if anyone posted this yet, but MB still kickin' ass.........

 

Which is what has led to things like this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/seven-oaks-winnipeg-summer-camps-1.5566560

 

[Tracker]

                                        

 

 

[Noeller]

that's amazing...good for the fed employees!