Covid-19

[Noeller]

yikes yikes yikes....these are some seriously dangerous case numbers all across Western Canada.

[Eternal optimist]

  

35 minutes ago, Floyd said:

It is very hard to have a critically minded discussion when any questions regarding covid are so easily filed into a 'Trump redneck conspiracy' narrative...  its a sad state of affairs these days.

Sorry, I wasn't accusing you of prescribing to that narrative, just pointing out that it does also fit that narrative. You make a good point though that the media has been hammering COVID quite a bit and impacts may be overblown... the biggest problem here though is the uncertainty surrounding it.

35 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Aside from the Spanish Flu - for which we only have random anecdotal evidence about a mystery illness - there is no real scientific evidence that a massive second wave is coming.  The 'second wave' will be clusters over the next couple years and the entire point of flattening the curve was not to eradicate covid but to prepare our health care system.

Viruses mutate all the time.. the concern with COVID is its' highly contagious infection rate, the virus isn't very deadly right now, but if it mutates into something more sinister, with its high infection rates, it would be devastating.

35 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Yet we speak like the second wave spanish flu is coming to kill millions... when in fact the 'first wave' of covid only killed 1600 people outside of nursing homes.  Yet pointing out this basic fact leaves me open to being a conspiracy guy for saying its a nursing home issue (contained location with long term exposure).

That's because the Spanish Flu did kill millions! More people died from the flu itself (particularly after it mutated) than were killed in World War I. Estimated death tolls from the Flu range from 50 million to 100 million¹, by comparison WWI killed between 20 and 40 million. Correlations are often drawn to the Spanish Flu because given the era, it is a perfect example of what happens when no preventative measures are taken. It's also the most recent pandemic, so it's the one we have the most information about.

Sources:

1: https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu

[bustamente]

Places start to re open, people gather and and the good practices people observed are forgotten, I was out for my weekly shop today and after the mini spike in cases many more people were wearing masks that the past few weeks

[Floyd]

29 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

Once again, stating facts becomes deflection in your eyes. Saskatchewan has the most cases in the far north, while Calgary is the hotbed in Alberta.  To continue saying that Hutterites are the highest contributor is ridiculous, because it’s not what the numbers show.  For the record, nothing you say will stop me from stating facts. If you keep stating false opinions, I will keep on combatting you. 

Speaking of deflection...  the conversation is about recent outbreaks not cases in total.

In the post you quoted...  I just agreed that there is a covid cluster in Sask's far north due to a funeral and then I cited an article that states 20 of 29 cases in Manitoba are related to Hutterite colonies...  is this not the 'vast majority'?

Now you are claiming that the latest 'flare up' in Alberta is primarily in Calgary and that there are not a significant number of cases related to Hutterite colonies?   A source would be good since you are now accusing me of spreading false opinions.

You are portraying my claims as though I am saying 'hutterite colonies' are the 'only' covid hotspots...  I am just saying they are the only covid hotspots where we don't use the term covidiot... i.e. the Calgary restaurant goers for example.

I like facts to be honest, always willing to admit I'm wrong...  willing to read your sources.

 

[Floyd]

24 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

 Viruses mutate all the time.. the concern with COVID is its' highly contagious infection rate, the virus isn't very deadly right now, but if it mutates into something more sinister, with its high infection rates, it would be devastating.

The virus already mutated it seems - in BC, they were hit with a 'washington strain (likely derived from China)' and the 'Italy/EU strain'...  the China and Iran strains had minimal impact

This is why I don't believe we will ever have a proper vaccine - I think we are behind the game no matter how fast we move...

As for the spanish flu, yes I completely understand the severity but its also a very very different virus in very very different times... so the second wave is almost irrelevant to covid in Canada...  we lose sight that covid killed 1600 people outside of nursing homes - to the general populace, covid is a minimal threat - its still a serious virus but this is not the spanish flu.

[Floyd]

39 minutes ago, Noeller said:

yikes yikes yikes....these are some seriously dangerous case numbers all across Western Canada.

How so?  The numbers are ridiculously low in relation to population and most covid spikes are clusters that can be handled...

What would a fair number be for cases in Alberta in relation to the population?

[Noeller]

 

[Floyd]

Ahh the computer model approach... got it

I would have a high degree of caution comparing Canada to Florida and Arizona... but I will keep this in mind and look again at end of August if we’re at the predicted 300-400 cases per day mark - I doubt it personally

to say we are in an exponential increase ignored the fact that society was essentially closed in June and now it is not - to expect the infection rate to remain low or zero is just not realistic

we are well under R1 right now and most infections outside of clusters are in the 20-30s - no reason to panic 

[Mr Dee]

It’s good to see a reporter not accept glib scripted answers..

 

[Mr Dee]

 

S t r e t c h I n g the truth a little again I see.

[Mr Dee]

This cognitive-test-acing president really said this...

 

[Brandon]

As per the old google definition search.... vast majority is considered 90% or higher.   So using that term with the hutterites would be incorrect.    I'd stick with only saying "the majority" of cases are because of the hutterite colonies.

 

[Noeller]

Alberta with another 141 cases today (from just 7800 tests) and decide to send kids back to school, full normal (mostly), this fall. Light a match....this province needs to be burned to the ground and start fresh without a maniac in charge. 

[Floyd]

8 minutes ago, Brandon said:

As per the old google definition search.... vast majority is considered 90% or higher.   So using that term with the hutterites would be incorrect.    I'd stick with only saying "the majority" of cases are because of the hutterite colonies.

Back in my day, 80% was a vast majority... I understand that times change but to me 80% will always be a vast majority - it was in the 1950s and it didn't hurt no one back then dadgummit.  Next you'll tell me wearing an onion on my belt offends some social activist slacker.

[Brandon]

Depends what kind of onion....  you can only wear a white onion because if you choose to wear a red onion then you racist!!!

 

[Floyd]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Yeah so... this is kind of depressing...

US border is not opening any time soon.

 

[Floyd]

6 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Depends what kind of onion....  you can only wear a white onion because if you choose to wear a red onion then you racist!!!

But there was a time when wearing a red onion on your belt was perfectly acceptable... and who am I - an onion lover - to judge those or be judged on behalf of those who teary-eyed settlers who came before me.

Now if it was a shallot - well there's no excuse for that.

[Mark H.]

8 hours ago, Wideleft said:

False.

"Calgary continues to be a hotspot, with 553 cases, up from 385 on Friday.

"We've doubled in one week, that's exponential growth. If we double again in one week and again in one week, that means two weeks from now, we will have more active cases in Calgary than we had at the height of the crisis in April. So this is bad. We certainly have more cases now than we did in March when we shut everything down," Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi said Monday."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-climbing-covid-19-cases-1.5656951

 

 Overall in Saskatchewan:

• 58 cases are health care workers; however, the source of the infections may not be related to health care in all instances.
• 340 of the cases are from the Far North, 211 are from the Saskatoon area, 124 from the North, 120 from the South, 87 from the Regina area and 80 from the Central region.
• 133 cases involve people 19 years of age and under, while the remainder are adults.
• 331 cases are in the 20-39 age range; 300 are in the 40-59 age range; 167 are in the 60-79 age range; and 31 are in the 80-plus range.
• 51 per cent of the cases are females and 49 per cent are males.
• 15 deaths related to COVID-19 have been reported to date.

https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and-media/2020/july/20/covid-19-update-july-20

 

Even in Manitoba, 10 of 18 new cases cannot be considered a "vast majority".

Words matter, especially when targetting a group of people.

@Floyd

These are the numbers I was referring to - they were already in the thread.

There is nothing else that needs to be said - it's all clear enough.

To clarify once again: 340 of 962 Saskatchewan cases are in the far north.  Calgary as seen an increase of over 150 cases since late last week.  

How that can pinned on one group of people as being the major cause of it, is beyond me .  And this is exactly what you did - you said to not do so would be ridiculous. 

[Tracker]

53 minutes ago, Mr Dee said:

 

S t r e t c h I n g the truth a little again I see.

Aparty from the obvious racial slur, this has to be considered remarkable self-restraint for Trump. The clip was only 23 seconds, but that is usually enough for him to blame African-Americans for all the violence in the US, immigrants for all the STDs, Latinos for all the rapes and Obama for pretty much everything else that has gone wrong. And blame Joe Biden for the Russians making Trump look incompetent.

[Floyd]

17 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

@Floyd

These are the numbers I was referring to - they were already in the thread.

There is nothing else that needs to be said - it's all clear enough.

To clarify once again: 340 of 962 Saskatchewan cases are in the far north.  Calgary as seen an increase of over 150 cases since late last week.  

How that can pinned on one group of people as being the major cause of it, is beyond me .  And this is exactly what you did - you said to not do so would be ridiculous. 

Look, man, if it helps you sleep its cool but the fact that you totally left out Manitoba stats kind of makes my point.

Citing the 962 covid cases literally has nothing to do with the current outbreak after lockdown restrictions eased and you know that.

I mean sure there are now covid cases linked to a gathering in Alberta and all those same people stopped at places all along the drive to and from - and some  colonies refused to social distance or cooperate with medical experts... but yes, there are other places that have covid besides colonies 

They are not the only factor but without Hutterite colonies, our weekly numbers are super low - anyway, my point was about covidiots and the use of that term...  enjoy your day.

 

 

 

[bustamente]

I was hoping I was done with these

[Mark H.]

1 hour ago, Floyd said:

Look, man, if it helps you sleep its cool but the fact that you totally left out Manitoba stats kind of makes my point.

Citing the 962 covid cases literally has nothing to do with the current outbreak after lockdown restrictions eased and you know that.

I mean sure there are now covid cases linked to a gathering in Alberta and all those same people stopped at places all along the drive to and from - and some  colonies refused to social distance or cooperate with medical experts... but yes, there are other places that have covid besides colonies 

They are not the only factor but without Hutterite colonies, our weekly numbers are super low - anyway, my point was about covidiots and the use of that term...  enjoy your day.

 

 

 

If I’d wanted to exclude MB stats, I would have edited them out of the post I quoted. 

[Floyd]

8 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

If I’d wanted to exclude MB stats, I would have edited them out of the post I quoted. 

The stats you are quoting are overall stats - we were talking about the new spike... anyway I was making a point about generalizations and now you’re acting hard done by... thankfully i didn’t latch on to the ‘visible minority’ comment

[Mark H.]

1 hour ago, Floyd said:

The stats you are quoting are overall stats - we were talking about the new spike... anyway I was making a point about generalizations and now you’re acting hard done by... thankfully i didn’t latch on to the ‘visible minority’ comment

I’m not hard done by, not at all. 20 of 29 cases in MB are Hutterite, as we speak. I’m just not sure how you arrived at the conclusion that we get a ‘free pass’ from MBB.  I was critical of my own people right from the start, and you will see that if you look back.  You have cited examples of foolish actions, and I agree with that.  The good news is, those cases are confined to 3 colonies and they are in complete lockdown.  

But that’s MB in the past week, that’s not all across the prairies.  SK has a significant number of new cases in the north, spread from an oilfield outbreak to indigenous commuters. That’s the the part I had a problem with. 

[Floyd]

27 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

I’m not hard done by, not at all. 20 of 29 cases in MB are Hutterite, as we speak. I’m just not sure how you arrived at the conclusion that we get a ‘free pass’ from MBB.  I was critical of my own people right from the start, and you will see that if you look back.  You have cited examples of foolish actions, and I agree with that.  The good news is, those cases are confined to 3 colonies and they are in complete lockdown.  

But that’s MB in the past week, that’s not all across the prairies.  SK has a significant order of new cases in the north, spread from an oilfield outbreak to indigenous commuters. That’s the the part I had a problem with. 

If Grand Beach July long had resulted in 20 of 29 cases - this board would be going ballistic... that is exactly my point

swift current is not contained yet and the colony south of Calgary has very mixed messages coming out of there

colonies remain an issue as do oil rigs, nursing homes, meat packing plants - now that I really think of it that is what bothers me...  MBB and the media are targeting the general populace as teetering out of control and being covidiots... it’s actually these clusters that make the data seem worse

So tracking the oil field guy and tracking the Manitoba colony outbreak should be good news stories - ie that the system is working - instead every second post is ‘omfg Covid is coming for the second wave... I told you so’

Noeller’s post is a good example - the scientist extrapolatesour cases to become exponential until disaster yet in the same thread I’m reading that hey the spike in the colonies is under control and no worries... but that spike is what made the data look ‘exponential’

Anyway blah blah