Covid-19

[Tracker]

In South Africa, COVID cases fall as fast as they rose — suggesting the omicron wave could be brief
The omicron variant is going extinct almost as fast as it took off in South Africa

As goes South Africa, so goes the rest of the world.

That sentiment might capture the hope of the health care community as they observe the infection pattern of omicron variant in the Southern Hemisphere nation of nearly 60 million people. When cases of the newly discovered COVID-19 mutation skyrocketed in South Africa in November and December 2021, the world took notice, fearful that it would soon reach the shores of all nations. After scientists learned that the SARS-CoV-2 strain was more transmissible than other viruses which cause COVID-19, political leaders like President Joe Biden began preparing their nations for the worst.

But now, merely a month since cases began spiking in South Africa, numbers have dropped precipitously. Indeed, recent COVID-19 case numbers in South Africa resemble a very steep mountain — an incredibly fast spike, followed by an equally fast fall. 

Now, as South Africa emerges from the other side of its omicron wave, observers hope that the rest of the world will also find itself in better shape at the end of this chapter of the pandemic than it was during other variant phases. 

Fortuitously, researchers in South Africa have found that people in that country who were infected with the omicron variant were much less likely to be hospitalized, at least compared with previous variants. Just as notably, people who become sick after getting infected with omicron seem to recover more quickly than patients who were infected with other SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Experts in the country believe the omicron surge there has already peaked, with the government issuing a statement on Dec. 30 explaining that there had been a 29.7 percent decrease in the number of confirmed new cases for the week ending on Christmas Day, compared with the number from the previous week (from 127,753 down to 89,781 cases).

"All indicators suggest the country may have passed the peak of the fourth wave at a national level," the statement added, noting that there were only two provinces that reported increases in cases (the Western Cape and Eastern Cape). Officials also noted that, although the variant remains highly transmissible, hospitalizations have not increased as much as during previous COVID-19 waves. "This means that the country has a spare capacity for admission of patients even for routine health services," they pointed out.

In South Africa, COVID cases fall as fast as they rose — suggesting the omicron wave could be brief | Salon.com

[FrostyWinnipeg]

 

[GCn20]

15 hours ago, Eternal optimist said:

Good, I hope they give him a swift kick in the balls on the way out. While practicing social distancing, of course.

How in the f are there that many people with children in the 5 - 11 age group that haven't got their first shot? My daughter is currently 3 and I plan on booking her first shot on her 5th birthday. I wish we had a better option than just "welp hope our 3 year old doesn't catch this life altering virus".

In the North, availability of vaccine to 5-11 year olds has been very poor. It was supposed to run through the schools after Xmas break for much of the North but now kids are at home. Don't presume this is an issue with parents choosing not to get their kids vaccinated, it is a systemic problem right now in many of the rural areas. 

My son was to get his first shot this week through his school but that has been cancelled. I called for an appointment for him and was given a date 3 weeks later. (Called inbetween Xmas and New Years).

Edited January 6, 2022 by GCn20

[JCon]

 

5 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

In the North, availability of vaccine to 5-11 year olds has been very poor. It was supposed to run through the schools after Xmas break for much of the North but now kids are at home. Don't presume this is an issue with parents choosing not to get their kids vaccinated, it is a systemic problem right now in many of the rural areas. 

My son was to get his first shot this week through his school but that has been cancelled. I called for an appointment for him and was given a date 3 weeks later. (Called inbetween Xmas and New Years).

They were going to immunize the students at my boys' school at the end of January. 

Who is administering the shots up north? Is it clinics or are they at doctors offices and pharmacies? The big advantage we have down south is the prevalence of pharmacies to help get the shots in arms. 

[Mark H.]

Got a vaccine clinic happening at our school on the colony - as we speak.

 

[Mark H.]

2 hours ago, Mark H. said:

Got a vaccine clinic happening at our school on the colony - as we speak.

 

FYI, the Public Health Nurses recommended waiting 8 weeks for the second dose, for both children and adults 

That is for an optimum immune response

Adults should wait a minimum of 21 days, before they take their second dose.  

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-may-have-killed-nearly-3-million-india-far-more-official-counts-show

Quote

India, from the earliest days of the pandemic, has reported far fewer COVID-19 deaths than expected given the toll elsewhere—an apparent death “paradox” that some believed was real and others thought would prove illusory. Now, a prominent epidemiologist who contended the country really had been spared the worst of COVID-19 has led a rigorous new analysis of available mortality data and concluded he “got it wrong.” India has “substantially greater” COVID-19 deaths than official reports suggest, says Prabhat Jha of the University of Toronto— close to 3 million, which is more than six times higher than the government has acknowledged and the largest number of any country.

If true, the finding could prompt scrutiny of other countries with anomalously low death rates and push up the current worldwide pandemic total, estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) at some 5.45 million people. “I think it does call for a recalibration of the global numbers plus saying, ‘What the heck is going on in India?’” says Jha, whose team published the new India analysis today in Science. And India’s suffering could be far from over—the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has begun to surge there.

 

[Tracker]

3 hours ago, JCon said:

 

They were going to immunize the students at my boys' school at the end of January. 

Who is administering the shots up north? Is it clinics or are they at doctors offices and pharmacies? The big advantage we have down south is the prevalence of pharmacies to help get the shots in arms. 

And the lack of lineups?

[Super Duper Negatron]

Rumour I heard today from someone in the medical field is that 0 of the current ICU admissions are Omicron. Would be interested to hear officially if that is the case.

[FrostyWinnipeg]

 

[JCon]

This is fine. Everything is fine. 

No presser announced today. Health orders, I believe, expire on Monday night. 

I think they've given up. 

[JCon]

 

The science suggests that the Omicron variant is less severe than the previous variants. But, it's still causing a lot of health issues, particularly for those unvaccinated. 

Now, we've jumped from around 200 hospitalizations to around 300 in one week. We're not even seeing the worst of this yet. 

The hospitals will be overrun. 

I know, from personal experience, that this is impacting other areas of healthcare, delaying necessary, possibly lifesaving diagnostics. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by JCon

[rebusrankin]

Come on, Heather already did her monthly press conference. You expect more?

Side note, do they not look the same?

[WildPath]

17 hours ago, Super Duper Negatron said:

Rumour I heard today from someone in the medical field is that 0 of the current ICU admissions are Omicron. Would be interested to hear officially if that is the case.

I would be surprised if this is true. Hospitalization and ICU admissions generally lag spikes in Covid infections. Infections have been spiking for a while and now we are starting to see hospitalizations jump. I believe the stats indicate that Omicron has to be at least 5x less severe to create the same load on the healthcare system as we had before Omicron. WHO said more study needs to be done, but it appears less severe and should not be labelled as mild. I've known a few people with Omicron, all with pretty difficult symptoms, but none requiring hospitalization.

I still find it strange how our government is planning for Omicron based on the absolute most optimistic view. There's clearly a delay between infections and hospitalizations, but barely anything done to mitigate increased load on hospitals beyond hoping Omicron is mild and doesn't cause a health care strain. We've abandoned the precautionary principle and people should demand answers from the government if their optimistic views don't come to fruition.

[Tracker]

1 minute ago, WildPath said:

I would be surprised if this is true. Hospitalization and ICU admissions generally lag spikes in Covid infections. Infections have been spiking for a while and now we are starting to see hospitalizations jump. I believe the stats indicate that Omicron has to be at least 5x less severe to create the same load on the healthcare system as we had before Omicron. WHO said more study needs to be done, but it appears less severe and should not be labelled as mild. I've known a few people with Omicron, all with pretty difficult symptoms, but none requiring hospitalization.

I still find it strange how our government is planning for Omicron based on the absolute most optimistic view. There's clearly a delay between infections and hospitalizations, but barely anything done to mitigate increased load on hospitals beyond hoping Omicron is mild and doesn't cause a health care strain. We've abandoned the precautionary principle and people should demand answers from the government if their optimistic views don't come to fruition.

When you have nothing else, fantasy is your fall-back. 

[Mark H.]

1 hour ago, WildPath said:

I've known a few people with Omicron, all with pretty difficult symptoms, but none requiring hospitalization.

 

I heard exactly this from our public health nurse yesterday:

"If / when Omicron gets to your community, expect more sick people, especially among the unvaccinated.  But you might see fewer hospitalizations."

She said they knew that vaccinations / natural immunity would work well against Delta, but she thinks Omicron will lead to more people with symptoms.

[bustamente]

Government just put out a statement and the restrictions have been extended till Feb. 1, so no lockdown for now but they are monitoring the situation.

[Mark H.]

1 hour ago, JCon said:

This is fine. Everything is fine. 

No presser announced today. Health orders, I believe, expire on Monday night. 

I think they've given up. 

If today's number are multiplied by 10, you can extrapolate the entire province being infected in 40 days

[Super Duper Negatron]

1 hour ago, bustamente said:

Government just put out a statement and the restrictions have been extended till Feb. 1, so no lockdown for now but they are monitoring the situation.

Monitoring. Sheesh. If me and my kids don't catch it at their hockey this weekend I will be shocked.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Super Duper Negatron

[Mark H.]

6 minutes ago, Super Duper Negatron said:

Monitoring. Sheesh. I me and my kids don't catch it at their hockey this weekend I will be shocked.

What happens if you just don't go?

* no judgement, we all make these decisions

[Super Duper Negatron]

5 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

What happens if you just don't go?

* no judgement, we all make these decisions

It is not an easy decision. Commitment to the team is one factor, plus the fact that I am helping with coaching both. I am still waffling, to be honest. I wish the province would just take it out of my hands.

Already decided to skip my beer league game this week until my booster takes hold.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Super Duper Negatron

[JCon]

14 minutes ago, Super Duper Negatron said:

It is not an easy decision. Commitment to the team is one factor, plus the fact that I am helping with coaching both. I am still waffling, to be honest. I wish the province would just take it out of my hands.

Already decided to skip my beer league game this week until my booster takes hold.

Same spot here. Dance and swimming starting now and flag football starts next Saturday. There's the commitment on one side and the fact that the kids just spent the last few weeks inside, away from people and the cold. 

[Wanna-B-Fanboy]

1 hour ago, Mark H. said:

If today's number are multiplied by 10, you can extrapolate the entire province being infected in 40 days

Our decision to get our two kid's second doses @ 6 weeks instead of the full 8, feels like the right decision now.

32 minutes ago, Super Duper Negatron said:

I am still waffling, to be honest. I wish the province would just take it out of my hands.

So much this...

[Super Duper Negatron]

9 minutes ago, wanna-b-fanboy said:

Our decision to get our two kid's second doses @ 6 weeks instead of the full 8, feels like the right decision now.

We made the same call. No regrets.

[WildPath]

2 hours ago, Super Duper Negatron said:

Monitoring. Sheesh. If me and my kids don't catch it at their hockey this weekend I will be shocked.

Winnipeg Police Service issues declares state of emergency, public and private organizations having difficulties operating because of large amounts of staff catching Covid, other jurisdictions having severe problems and requiring additional restrictions...... But hey, let's take some additional time to monitor it, but don't gather with family for Christmas, bar is okay though... No reason for a presser, continue as normal, nothing to see here.

Edited January 7, 2022 by WildPath