Covid-19

[TrueBlue4ever]

15 hours ago, Floyd said:

This is a really good example of information distortion...

You state facts which we don't actually have - after I cite the main source of data tracking available

No one said we didn't need the lockdown in fact I just said it worked...

And correct flu and covid are different - flu season just over runs poor nations not rich ones.

You’re not even reading your own data properly. The death rate is 1.7% of cases, not 0.017% (when you use a calculator and divide, the number 0.01 as an answer is the same as 1%, you have to move the decimal place over two places to the left). And if you scroll down and see the graphs below, it shows the curve still spiking, not flattening. We just had our two highest daily new case totals (over 1,500 each day) in the last 3 days. No flattening yet. 
 

And if you say 1.7% is still low (Flu is 0.1% fatality rate, so this is 17 times more deadly) it in fact is compared to the global rate of 4.5-5%, but remember that the US fatality rate was at about 1.3% just over a week ago and is now 2.6-2.7%. This will happen as the testing can’t keep up with the number of actual cases out there, lowering the true infection rate, and also because hospitals are getting overloaded and can’t treat everyone properly so more are now dying. In Italy 3 weeks ago they had a cutoff number - if you needed a ventilator they would check your age due to limited supply, and if you were over 65 they just did not put you on one because they had only so many to go around and decided that the younger had a better chance to recover so that was the arbitrary cut off point. And in New York 2 days ago a doctor said they had their first deaths as a result of having to share ventilators between 9 patients and it was not sufficient enough to keep one critically ill patient alive because of the rationing, where they could have survived if they had had their own ventilator full-time. 

[SpeedFlex27]

4 hours ago, Mark H. said:

Singapore has kept their schools open - with strict precautions. 

Would you want schools open in Manitoba? 

[J5V]

10 hours ago, AtlanticRiderFan said:

Your article proves the opposite of what you are trying to say. It's saying we need to do more, not less.

Not at all. It shows that you can do plenty to successfully flatten this thing without sacrificing your economy, putting people out of work, bankrupting your businesses, creating undue fear & panic, and needlessly isolating the strong and healthy of your society. 

[17to85]

17 hours ago, J5V said:

Do you practice being wrong because you're sure good at it. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health-and-fitness/hospitals-overwhelmed-by-surge-of-flu-cases/article562037/

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/12/health/flu-surveillance-cdc/index.html

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

https://www.patriotledger.com/news/20200114/flu-cases-overwhelm-south-shore-hospital-emergency-room

 

So one canadian link and a bunch if irrelevant to canada american ones? And also, in the 9 year old article about canada it says it's elective surgeries being rescheduled to deal with it. You can see how that's not an actual overwhelming right? Nonessential stuff being pushed back to handle serious stuff is normal when there is a peak, which us how this is intended to be. An actual overwhelming,  not an it's been a busy month at work overwhelming means that people who need critical care can't get critical care.

[Mark H.]

6 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Would you want schools open in Manitoba? 

Sorry if I wasn’t clear - it was a response to the statement that ‘Singapore’s measures are much stricter than ours.’

[Mark H.]

1 hour ago, J5V said:

Not at all. It shows that you can do plenty to successfully flatten this thing without sacrificing your economy, putting people out of work, bankrupting your businesses, creating undue fear & panic, and needlessly isolating the strong and healthy of your society. 

There is simply not enough evidence to show that this approach would work.  Why?  Because healthy people appear to be the biggest carriers.  

Maybe this is not what you’re saying with all these posts you are making, but it is what I am hearing:

“We can choose to live freer, riskier lives for ourselves.  We cannot choose that others live shorter lives for our benefit.  It takes a special kind of moral and spiritual blindness to fail to see the difference.”

[Floyd]

7 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

You’re not even reading your own data properly. The death rate is 1.7% of cases, not 0.017% (when you use a calculator and divide, the number 0.01 as an answer is the same as 1%, you have to move the decimal place over two places to the left). And if you scroll down and see the graphs below, it shows the curve still spiking, not flattening. We just had our two highest daily new case totals (over 1,500 each day) in the last 3 days. No flattening yet. 
 

And if you say 1.7% is still low (Flu is 0.1% fatality rate, so this is 17 times more deadly) it in fact is compared to the global rate of 4.5-5%, but remember that the US fatality rate was at about 1.3% just over a week ago and is now 2.6-2.7%. This will happen as the testing can’t keep up with the number of actual cases out there, lowering the true infection rate, and also because hospitals are getting overloaded and can’t treat everyone properly so more are now dying. In Italy 3 weeks ago they had a cutoff number - if you needed a ventilator they would check your age due to limited supply, and if you were over 65 they just did not put you on one because they had only so many to go around and decided that the younger had a better chance to recover so that was the arbitrary cut off point. And in New York 2 days ago a doctor said they had their first deaths as a result of having to share ventilators between 9 patients and it was not sufficient enough to keep one critically ill patient alive because of the rationing, where they could have survived if they had had their own ventilator full-time. 

Not sure what you’re arguing - no one is claiming that covid is not dangerous or that the US is not a clusterfk - but BC has absolutely flattened the curve

canada is not at all on the same path as New York or Lombardy region of Italy

[TrueBlue4ever]

On 2020-04-04 at 10:30 AM, Floyd said:

So - as of right now - Coronavirus in Canada already looks flattened...  lockdown seemed to work pretty quickly

1% of cases are critical and 0.017% have been fatal - deaths spiked around March 16-22 but then dropped back down and are not increasing exponentially

It really seems like we do not  have the population density for this virus to overwhelm our entire country

Canada should be able to re-open by Easter if these numbers hold - but I doubt we will - panic has taken hold

Again as of right now - JV5 seems to have a point about the flu v. covid - why don't we care that flu kills up to 650,000 people globally each year... is it just because its mostly in poor countries?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

 

 

On 2020-04-04 at 10:49 AM, Floyd said:

This is a really good example of information distortion...

You state facts which we don't actually have - after I cite the main source of data tracking available

 

58 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Not sure what you’re arguing - no one is claiming that covid is not dangerous or that the US is not a clusterfk - but BC has absolutely flattened the curve

canada is not at all on the same path as New York or Lombardy region of Italy

Speaking of information distortion....

Don't move the goalposts. You were talking about Canada, not just BC (which was one month ahead of almost every province except Ontario, and which had more cases earlier than all other provinces (here is my source on that):

https://globalnews.ca/news/6627505/coronavirus-covid-canada-timeline/

Go back and look at the graphs in the very data you are providing. On a linear projection, both cases and deaths are still showing an upward increase progression - curve is still going up. Using the logarithmic progression, the actual cases are slowing the curve but it hasn't flattened yet, and deaths are tracking on a steady upward line. You are mis-reading the data, that is my argument (which you already acknowledged by quoting a 0.017% death  rate as a typo -  you were off by a factor of 100 times - or 10,000%). We peaked at 59 daily deaths on April 2, but already have 27 deaths today (April 5) and it's only 11 am, that puts us on track to equal our worst day yet. And we had over 1,550 new cases on April 2 and after a one day dip were back to 1,537 yesterday. on pace today so far for over 1,100. This isn't anywhere near slowing down yet.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

It seems your overriding concern is about what will happen to your money - it seems to fuel those who dislike measures to slow global warming and have commented in that thread, like it's a sinister plot designed only to be a cash grab. Well, I heard economic doom and gloom in 1987 after Black Monday when the Dow dropped down to 1,800 points, and again in 2008 when the housing market crashed and the Dow was at 6,000 points. It seems to have bounced back nicely both times, even with the recent dip. Long term, prices will rise and stock market numbers historically have always seemed to go up. People aren't expected to bounce back from death in the same way.

 

[Tracker]

 

 

                                                    

[Tracker]

 

 

                                                       

[Floyd]

7 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

 

 

Speaking of information distortion....

Don't move the goalposts. You were talking about Canada, not just BC (which was one month ahead of almost every province except Ontario, and which had more cases earlier than all other provinces (here is my source on that):

https://globalnews.ca/news/6627505/coronavirus-covid-canada-timeline/

Go back and look at the graphs in the very data you are providing. On a linear projection, both cases and deaths are still showing an upward increase progression - curve is still going up. Using the logarithmic progression, the actual cases are slowing the curve but it hasn't flattened yet, and deaths are tracking on a steady upward line. You are mis-reading the data, that is my argument (which you already acknowledged by quoting a 0.017% death  rate as a typo -  you were off by a factor of 100 times - or 10,000%). We peaked at 59 daily deaths on April 2, but already have 27 deaths today (April 5) and it's only 11 am, that puts us on track to equal our worst day yet. And we had over 1,550 new cases on April 2 and after a one day dip were back to 1,537 yesterday. on pace today so far for over 1,100. This isn't anywhere near slowing down yet.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

It seems your overriding concern is about what will happen to your money - it seems to fuel those who dislike measures to slow global warming and have commented in that thread, like it's a sinister plot designed only to be a cash grab. Well, I heard economic doom and gloom in 1987 after Black Monday when the Dow dropped down to 1,800 points, and again in 2008 when the housing market crashed and the Dow was at 6,000 points. It seems to have bounced back nicely both times, even with the recent dip. Long term, prices will rise and stock market numbers historically have always seemed to go up. People aren't expected to bounce back from death in the same way.

 

You should lead a dramatic writing online course.

Anyway - in the Yukon/BC we have seen this a month before everyone else and the curve is flattening - especially if you look at the death rate - which spiked early with 9 cases in the Lynn seniors home and has leveled.  I also said GTA is going to be the problem area for Canada - this is a population density problem.  

As for tracking covid cases - we are just tracking test kits...  so of course there will be a spike now that we are actively looking for it

If you actually go through the data, Quebec added 40 covid deaths on one day that were cumulative - this skews the curve to make it look worse

I was wondering when the 'denier' implication (covid/global warming) would show up...  considering I make nature documentaries and guide polar bear tours - you can shove that...

I'm not talking about stock market money - I'm talking about structural debt that will need to be repaid at some point - saving lives now will cost lives later.  We're just passing the buck to Gen X.  I'm assuming you don't recall how our health care and social programs were gutted in the 1990s repaying debt from the 1980s...

We can revisit this in a week if you're still outraged that I think Canada is doing a good job.

 

 

 

[Floyd]

25 minutes ago, Tracker said:

 

 

                                                    

This is a ridiculous response.  100% of Canadians will not get covid...

Considering less than a month ago we were told it was 3-4% or as high as 9-10%... 1.8% is absolutely good news.

For two weeks, the death rate in Italy has plateaued and now may be decreasing.  R0 has decreased from 3 to 1

Canada 'should' be more prepared than Italy and has a much lower population density.

[iHeart]

CBC live didn't catch the start of the conference so 2 deaths 11 in hospital 17 recoveries

 

9 new cases

Edited April 5, 2020 by iHeart

[The Unknown Poster]

Is that three days in a row now of reduced cases?  Maybe we’re over the worst of it....for now 

[Floyd]

https://abc7ny.com/health/fauci-coronavirus-could-become-seasonal/6078871/

Its not that I'm heartless but you just can't hide in your house forever.

We are just waiting to get a handle on coronavirus' patterns and tendencies - they will let us out of lockdown and by next winter, coronavirus will be regarded as another 'flu' - simply because we will understand how to prepare for it

Its not going away - we either hide for two years or we just accept it.

[FrostyWinnipeg]

9 minutes ago, iHeart said:

CBC live didn't catch the start of the conference so 2 deaths 11 in hospital 17 recoveries

 

9 new cases

Was 12 yesterday but they also said 14 health care so is that 26?

Any day less then yesterday is a good day.

[The Unknown Poster]

1 minute ago, Floyd said:

https://abc7ny.com/health/fauci-coronavirus-could-become-seasonal/6078871/

Its not that I'm heartless but you just can't hide in your house forever.

We are just waiting to get a handle on coronavirus' patterns and tendencies - they will let us out of lockdown and by next winter, coronavirus will be regarded as another 'flu' - simply because we will understand how to prepare for it

Its not going away - we either hide for two years or we just accept it.

Sure. But when there is a vaccine available widely then it becomes a “flu”. It will still cause issues for business where people not vaccinated get it and spread it to co workers.  But it won’t be a run away thing.  

[iHeart]

Just now, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Was 12 yesterday but they also said 14 health care so is that 26?

Any day less then yesterday is a good day.

it sure is

[The Unknown Poster]

 

[Floyd]

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Sure. But when there is a vaccine available widely then it becomes a “flu”. It will still cause issues for business where people not vaccinated get it and spread it to co workers.  But it won’t be a run away thing.  

Agreed to some extent - but flu vaccine is 40-50% effective...  I expect covid vaccine to be the same - virus will continue to evolve faster than the vaccine

We are in lockdown because this was reported as a 3-4% fatality rate as high as 9-10%...  the current stats in North America indicate a 3% infection rate out of total tested and of that 3% there is a 1-2% fatality rate - focused on 65+ age group (which is incidentally not the prime age group of infection).  Lots of moving parts.

My concern is that we are denying the 5-55 age range a chance at herd immunity by locking this all down... we'll see - watching Sweden closely.

[Super Duper Negatron]

21 minutes ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Is that three days in a row now of reduced cases?  Maybe we’re over the worst of it....for now 

Jinx post! 😉

[Mark H.]

41 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Agreed to some extent - but flu vaccine is 40-50% effective...  I expect covid vaccine to be the same - virus will continue to evolve faster than the vaccine

We are in lockdown because this was reported as a 3-4% fatality rate as high as 9-10%...  the current stats in North America indicate a 3% infection rate out of total tested and of that 3% there is a 1-2% fatality rate - focused on 65+ age group (which is incidentally not the prime age group of infection).  Lots of moving parts.

My concern is that we are denying the 5-55 age range a chance at herd immunity by locking this all down... we'll see - watching Sweden closely.

The infection and fatality rate would be higher without social distancing and border closures - I assume we can all agree on that?

Some information from Sweden (article is 2 days old).  Of notes, 6000 cases in a population of  just over 10 million.  For comparison, Canada has a population of over 37 million, with 15, 300 cases. 

Sweden reported 612 new cases on Friday, bringing the total to around 6,000. The death toll has reached 333, with fatalities now running at about 25-30 a day, according to the Swedish Health Agency.

A STORM IN STOCKHOLM

There are growing signs the virus is spreading at elderly care homes, again mainly in the capital, where some staff at hospitals and nursing homes have publicly warned of a lack of protective equipment such as masks.

Facing what a local official has called “a storm” of COVID-19 cases, Stockholm has opened a field hospital at a convention complex south of the city center and called on anyone with medical training to help care for the sick.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/swedens-liberal-pandemic-strategy-questioned-as-stockholm-death-toll-mounts

[TrueBlue4ever]

1 hour ago, Floyd said:

https://abc7ny.com/health/fauci-coronavirus-could-become-seasonal/6078871/

Its not that I'm heartless but you just can't hide in your house forever.

We are just waiting to get a handle on coronavirus' patterns and tendencies - they will let us out of lockdown and by next winter, coronavirus will be regarded as another 'flu' - simply because we will understand how to prepare for it

Its not going away - we either hide for two years or we just accept it.

It's not either-or. We find a compromise between "hide away for 2 years" and "just accept it so go about business as usual". Canada is doing well BECAUSE we have put stringent, extreme measures like stay-at-home orders in place. I'll come out when the medical experts say it is safe to do so, and not follow your guesstimate of "by May Covid will be done". Every person who wants to get back to normal now is simply going to prolong the effects of transmission by ignoring social distancing. 

And once a vaccine is in place then maybe it can be treated like another flu (and the only hard numbers I have heard are 12-18 months for it to be in place, Trump's grand "gut feeling" pronouncements notwithstanding). But until then, stay put is the best course of action. 

[SpeedFlex27]

2 hours ago, Floyd said:

This is a ridiculous response.  100% of Canadians will not get covid...

Considering less than a month ago we were told it was 3-4% or as high as 9-10%... 1.8% is absolutely good news.

For two weeks, the death rate in Italy has plateaued and now may be decreasing.  R0 has decreased from 3 to 1

Canada 'should' be more prepared than Italy and has a much lower population density.

What does Italy have to do with Canada? It certainly is not plateauing here. Quit cherry picking stats.

Edited April 5, 2020 by SpeedFlex27

[bustamente]

This just speaks for itself