Biggies game

[wbbfan]

A few times a year people talk about biggie having lost a step or not seeing the game impact they expect from him. 
 Some one mentioned in the gdt that it felt like a game biggie wasn’t making plays in but would be the type of game they would be convinced was a good game from him. 
 So I decided to do a bit of a deep dive on his performance. 
From my perspective his role is very different than in bc with out eliminian or when he came here at first. But very similar to with eliminian but with our having that guy beside him. 
 

 Calgary gained 33 yards on 7 plays where biggie made the stop for 4.71 yards tackle depth on average. They made 2 first downs on his stops, and 3 stops lead directly to punts. 

On biggies defensive stops the stamps would expect to gain 61.9 yards but they gained 33 yards. Which means biggies defensive stops prevented an expected 28.9 yards. For a -4.12 expected yards per play where biggie made a stop. 
 

By the eye test these numbers are what you would want to see. Your mlber making stops with in the first 5 yards, and their stops being much shorter than the offensive goal. Biggie also covers more ground than any mlber in the cfl and does more in pass pro than half the safeties.  So for him to be routinely making stops at such a depth is really really good. 

I’m going to use awes stats to compare.

Awes average depth of tackle was 6.5 yards. His stops lead to 2 punts, but both where on 2nd and longs of more than 10 yards and we made 3 first downs on his stops. 
On Brady’s runs we gained 42 yards with an expected gain of 42.4. Sheed is averaging 6.3 ypc this year and got +14.7. Prukop is averaging 2.2 but had 3.9 in 22 so credit him with 1.9. 
 That means the bombers put up 12.4 more yards than expected when awe made the stop or +1.24 yards per tackle. 

Tldr                                        

Average depth of tackle  

biggie   awe

4.71       6.5

Average +/- differential 

Biggie    Awe

-4.12.    +1.24

If I have time this week I’ll go back and track the plays and post tackle, and blitz efficiency numbers. 

[Booch]

I have no issues with his game and how the role we have him playing isn't y9our normal/usual one for his position...he's played well this yr and is coming on even stronger...much like the defense as a whole...14 points allowed the last 2 games is also a nice indicator and trend I like seeing

[Mike]

Biggie and Willie look like they had a buy one get one coupon on stem cells in Brazil this off-season. Completely rejuvenated. Biggie still can’t wrap up though 

[wbbfan]

1 minute ago, Booch said:

I have no issues with his game and how the role we have him playing isn't y9our normal/usual one for his position...he's played well this yr and is coming on even stronger...much like the defense as a whole...14 points allowed the last 2 games is also a nice indicator and trend I like seeing

Yep. This change could allow him to play much later into his 30s than you see from lbers. His versatility allows us to do a lot in terms of coverage and blitzing. If we had a full time nose instead of biggie having to take a linemen,  or use a db in run fits, we could have biggie roam and scrape to the rb. With Lawson and a nose we could do some asymmetrical alignments like the cover3/Tampa 2 disciples do where you cancel 3-4 gaps with 2 guys and let your athletes make plays. 

[Booch]

Yeah...agree...If we could solidify that gap eating DT we would be sitting pretty good.....As it is now we are using Biggie and Clements more than I like off edge, and even sometimes inside the tackle at the line, even a lot of HB edge rushing too....and it at times harms us in run protection....Is this something that we will morph away from...we shall see, but back to original point I would say Biggies is in the box like a true MB maybe 50% of snaps...as he is often in the intermediate and deeper levels in coverages....

14 minutes ago, Mike said:

Biggie and Willie look like they had a buy one get one coupon on stem cells in Brazil this off-season. Completely rejuvenated. Biggie still can’t wrap up though 

Yeah...Wille in particular looks like he has been re-energized....maybe that snow training is the key lol

[wbbfan]

8 minutes ago, Mike said:

Biggie and Willie look like they had a buy one get one coupon on stem cells in Brazil this off-season. Completely rejuvenated. Biggie still can’t wrap up though 

Need me some of that. Biggie lists as 241 but man he seems smaller than when he was with bc. Long gone is the explosive power of the 9 sack 100+ tackle campaigns. 
Crazy to think back to the guy who had 647 tackles 37 sacks, 10 picks, 6 forced fumbles 6 fumble recoveries, 6 pass kds, 2 tds a saftey, 105 games only 3 missed over 6 seasons from 12-16+18.

Its really one of the greatest career renaissances we’ve seen from a hofer who came back from the nfl. 

2 minutes ago, Booch said:

Yeah...agree...If we could solidify that gap eating DT we would be sitting pretty good.....As it is now we are using Biggie and Clements more than I like off edge, and even sometimes inside the tackle at the line, even a lot of HB edge rushing too....and it at times harms us in run protection....Is this something that we will morph away from...we shall see, but back to original point I would say Biggies is in the box like a true MB maybe 50% of snaps...as he is often in the intermediate and deeper levels in coverages....

Yeah...Wille in particular looks like he has been re-energized....maybe that snow training is the key lol

Yeah right now our first down run fits have either Darby or ba filling a gap with a lber on an ol and it’s rough. Teams will adjust and kill us with play action and timing routes if we dont sort it out before too long. Lucky Lawson helps. 

[K-Shack]

This is great. Thanks, @wbbfan!

Could you help me understand how the expected gain is calculated? Is it assuming getting a first down on the play, getting a first down on the set of downs remaining before a punt, season averages for that particular player, or something different entirely?

[wbbfan]

Just now, kschach said:

This is great. Thanks, @wbbfan!

Could you help me understand how the expected gain is calculated? Is it assuming getting a first down on the play, getting a first down on the set of downs remaining before a punt, season averages for that particular player, or something different entirely?

Np.

the expected gain is that players yards per touch on a carry or catch for the year vs the out come. Not terribly advanced but stats are even worse to try and work with right now than usual in the cfl. 
 So Brady averages 5.3 per carry. If he gets 7 than he’s +1.7 over his expected outcome. 

It can be punishing for guys coming back and making plays on the back end of coverage like sheeds play. But especially lber on rb it’s pretty solid. 
 

The first down / punt is if the stop was made but after a first was produced. A stop of 4 yards when a guy averages 5.3 seems solid but if he needed 3 for a first it’s clearly less valuable. And punts are if the stop was a 2nd down play that lead to a punt following it. Which is ideal. 
 

A lot of awe 10 tackles came from getting the ball run down his throat in the 4th. Where as biggie had them spread pretty evenly through the game with plays coming in coverage and run stoping.  

[Geebrr]

1 hour ago, wbbfan said:

A few times a year people talk about biggie having lost a step or not seeing the game impact they expect from him. 
 Some one mentioned in the gdt that it felt like a game biggie wasn’t making plays in but would be the type of game they would be convinced was a good game from him. 
 So I decided to do a bit of a deep dive on his performance. 
From my perspective his role is very different than in bc with out eliminian or when he came here at first. But very similar to with eliminian but with our having that guy beside him. 
 

 Calgary gained 33 yards on 7 plays where biggie made the stop for 4.71 yards tackle depth on average. They made 2 first downs on his stops, and 3 stops lead directly to punts. 

On biggies defensive stops the stamps would expect to gain 61.9 yards but they gained 33 yards. Which means biggies defensive stops prevented an expected 28.9 yards. For a -4.12 expected yards per play where biggie made a stop. 
 

By the eye test these numbers are what you would want to see. Your mlber making stops with in the first 5 yards, and their stops being much shorter than the offensive goal. Biggie also covers more ground than any mlber in the cfl and does more in pass pro than half the safeties.  So for him to be routinely making stops at such a depth is really really good. 

I’m going to use awes stats to compare.

Awes average depth of tackle was 6.5 yards. His stops lead to 2 punts, but both where on 2nd and longs of more than 10 yards and we made 3 first downs on his stops. 
On Brady’s runs we gained 42 yards with an expected gain of 42.4. Sheed is averaging 6.3 ypc this year and got +14.7. Prukop is averaging 2.2 but had 3.9 in 22 so credit him with 1.9. 
 That means the bombers put up 12.4 more yards than expected when awe made the stop or +1.24 yards per tackle. 

Tldr                                        

Average depth of tackle  

biggie   awe

4.71       6.5

Average +/- differential 

Biggie    Awe

-4.12.    +1.24

If I have time this week I’ll go back and track the plays and post tackle, and blitz efficiency numbers. 

Biggie is the best MLB in the league. Being younger doesn’t make you better. 
 

No MLB is asked to do what he does - and he has set the bar so high people love focusing on any imperfect play. 
 

[wbbfan]

12 minutes ago, Geebrr said:

Biggie is the best MLB in the league. Being younger doesn’t make you better. 
 

No MLB is asked to do what he does - and he has set the bar so high people love focusing on any imperfect play. 
 

Yes and no. It’s hard for lbers and RBs to be as effective year after year. They take a ton of high speed hits and work against dramatically bigger linemen. That’s the two spots that chews up and spits out guys more than any other in football. Biggie is an extreme aberration, especially for a speed tool guy. 

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Mike said:

Biggie and Willie look like they had a buy one get one coupon on stem cells in Brazil this off-season. Completely rejuvenated. Biggie still can’t wrap up though 

Neither can Willie, tbh.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Jesse

[bearpants]

1 hour ago, wbbfan said:

Need me some of that. Biggie lists as 241 but man he seems smaller than when he was with bc. Long gone is the explosive power of the 9 sack 100+ tackle campaigns. 
Crazy to think back to the guy who had 647 tackles 37 sacks, 10 picks, 6 forced fumbles 6 fumble recoveries, 6 pass kds, 2 tds a saftey, 105 games only 3 missed over 6 seasons from 12-16+18. 

This is very surprising... his whole career, he's been around 215-220... he doesn't look like he's 20+ pounds bigger

[Jpan85]

Seems like in the CFL the elite pass rushers have a long shelf like eg John Bowman, Anwar Stewart

[Bigblue204]

23 minutes ago, bearpants said:

This is very surprising... his whole career, he's been around 215-220... he doesn't look like he's 20+ pounds bigger

Seeing Biggie in person, I don't see how physics would allow him to be 220 lol. Guy is THICK. 240 seems more likely.

[Booch]

28 minutes ago, Bigblue204 said:

Seeing Biggie in person, I don't see how physics would allow him to be 220 lol. Guy is THICK. 240 seems more likely.

Yeah standing with him...I a bit taller and he looks to be close to me and I fluctuate between 235..245

[Noeller]

Also, the ordinary person can't judge weight because we have no concept of the muscle on these guys, which of course weighs more than the fat on us tubby ******* ...

[Bomber_fanaddict]

He just had two huge games after the loss of his dad. I think he’s playing just fine. 

[JCon]

[wbbfan]

1 hour ago, Jpan85 said:

Seems like in the CFL the elite pass rushers have a long shelf like eg John Bowman, Anwar Stewart

When those guys are crafty guys with great moves absolutely. Guys who depend deeply on quickness and athleticism not soo much. 

 

1 hour ago, Bigblue204 said:

Seeing Biggie in person, I don't see how physics would allow him to be 220 lol. Guy is THICK. 240 seems more likely.

Easier said than done but I’d say look at him next to Augustine. Kinda similar build. Guys like that do have a tendency to look much heavier than they are. Those big shoulders and arms, the guys with huge legs can often be the reverse. 
 

24 minutes ago, JCon said:

loool. With nick taylor retired biggie is probably the best athlete over 30 on the team now. Grant or Cole might be the best over all. 

[Bigblue204]

48 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

When those guys are crafty guys with great moves absolutely. Guys who depend deeply on quickness and athleticism not soo much. 

 

Easier said than done but I’d say look at him next to Augustine. Kinda similar build. Guys like that do have a tendency to look much heavier than they are. Those big shoulders and arms, the guys with huge legs can often be the reverse. 
 

loool. With nick taylor retired biggie is probably the best athlete over 30 on the team now. Grant or Cole might be the best over all. 

Just cause I'm a stickler...Taylor isn't retired. He's on the Stamps, just hasn't made game day roster this year.

[Booch]

1 hour ago, wbbfan said:

When those guys are crafty guys with great moves absolutely. Guys who depend deeply on quickness and athleticism not soo much. 

 

Easier said than done but I’d say look at him next to Augustine. Kinda similar build. Guys like that do have a tendency to look much heavier than they are. Those big shoulders and arms, the guys with huge legs can often be the reverse. 
 

loool. With nick taylor retired biggie is probably the best athlete over 30 on the team now. Grant or Cole might be the best over all. 

yeah Nick was here for the Stamps game...came over and visited the boys in locker-room after the game too

[johnzo]

6 hours ago, Mike said:

 Biggie still can’t wrap up though 

Who are the good tacklers in the CFL?  Every week I see guys laying out big body blows, but good one-on-one form tackles seem rarer and rarer.

I'm not sure if this is true or if it's something I just read, but it seems like since full-contact practices were limited tackling has been real iffy in the league.

[johnzo]

6 hours ago, Mike said:

Biggie and Willie look like they had a buy one get one coupon on stem cells in Brazil this off-season.

TSN had a sideline puff piece on Willy talking about how he was doing some of his offseason training in deep snow now that he's moved to Winnipeg.  Prairie snowdrifts + dark web DNA might be the new hot regimen.

[Pepper_Brooks]

12 minutes ago, johnzo said:

Who are the good tacklers in the CFL?  Every week I see guys laying out big body blows, but good one-on-one form tackles seem rarer and rarer.

I'm not sure if this is true or if it's something I just read, but it seems like since full-contact practices were limited tackling has been real iffy in the league.

As an ardent rugby union fan, it makes me wince when I see CFL players, particularly defensive backs, tackling like they're playing human pinball. The league must embrace proper form wrap tackling in the future if they seriously want to prevent injuries.

[HardCoreBlue]

16 minutes ago, johnzo said:

Who are the good tacklers in the CFL?  Every week I see guys laying out big body blows, but good one-on-one form tackles seem rarer and rarer.

I'm not sure if this is true or if it's something I just read, but it seems like since full-contact practices were limited tackling has been real iffy in the league.

The other issue is how tackling is being taught at atom thru to University isn’t been done consistently and on top of that not translating to the pros.