Blue Bombers - 2024 Regular Season - Discussion Thread

[voodoochylde]

2 hours ago, Booch said:

exactly....it's a flwed way to grade....Nichols last week had a game of games for a db...didnt even crack the top 5...tells u something right there

It’s why I don’t put a lot of stock in PFF grades.  They have no idea what the assignment on any given play was and it skews the evaluation.

[Goalie]

Looks like O’Shea runs that site. 

[Goalie]

These guys seriously smoking some good **** if they think Thomas was the best DL in the league last week. That’s when you know you can’t take it seriously 

[Booch]

1 hour ago, wbbfan said:

here is a box score break down for ba and nichols. 
 

ba, half his tackles were after first down yardage was gained, he had 3 run stops but on a combined 24 rush yards. Zero pass defenses zero incompletions at him. 8 tackles. 

the longest play against Nichols was for 8 yards. Two plays forced 3rd down, 4 passes were incomplete when thrown at his target. 3 run stops totaling 10 rushing yards. 6 tackles. 
 

pretty clear to see those “advanced stats” are trash. 

 

Yip...that's be exactly the point I was referring to..that PPF crap ain't worth the time it takes to publish it

52 minutes ago, Goalie said:

Looks like O’Shea runs that site. 

I think he creates his roster after anxious waiting for it to be published 

 

7 minutes ago, Goalie said:

These guys seriously smoking some good **** if they think Thomas was the best DL in the league last week. That’s when you know you can’t take it seriously 

If you have the opportunity to review the sequence of plays I mentioned earlier you will see it plain as day...and there were others

[rebusrankin]

That system seems like one that would have gone gaga for Reggie Hunt's 20 tackle game. 20 tackles is impressive but less so when it comes in a game you lose where both running backs go wild.

[JohnnyAbonny]

27 minutes ago, rebusrankin said:

That system seems like one that would have gone gaga for Reggie Hunt's 20 tackle game. 20 tackles is impressive but less so when it comes in a game you lose where both running backs go wild.

Yeah agreed. You can tell some of those analytics sites are put together by bean counters who don’t understand football. 

Edited July 4 by JohnnyAbonny

[17to85]

People get so desperate to try and analyze stats but forget that some stats don't mean whole hell of a lot in isolation.  Analytics work incredibly well in baseball because it's a series of one on one battles, football though requires everyone working as a unit.

[HardCoreBlue]

2 hours ago, JohnnyAbonny said:

Yeah agreed. You can tell some of those analytics sites are put together by bean counters who don’t understand football. 

I call them propeller heads but bean counters works as well.

[Goalie]

Yes. Not a big fan of analytics myself. Used in hockey lots. It’s silly. 
 

these football ones are ridiculous tho. Makes no sense. 

[wbbfan]

19 minutes ago, Goalie said:

Yes. Not a big fan of analytics myself. Used in hockey lots. It’s silly. 
 

these football ones are ridiculous tho. Makes no sense. 

Ages ago I studied advanced math, data sciences / analytics, I’ve been a big fan of bill James work in baseball, and the use of advanced metrics in a a good few fields. I think the way they are used is improper, especially in football, and that they are over used. The field creates a massive opportunity for people with out a sporting back ground to get into pro sports management. It’s abused to an absurd level now. 

I feel like the cfls use here is entirely a scam. 

high level use, when to kick fgs, and the other stuff I mentioned earlier plus stuff like planning rest and intensity in practice is big. I personally think some advanced stats in athletic measurement is valuable as well. 
 

I hate what it’s done to basketball offences in the nba, but understand it. I do enjoy some of the chances on D though. 

[GCn20]

8 hours ago, wbbfan said:

Ages ago I studied advanced math, data sciences / analytics, I’ve been a big fan of bill James work in baseball, and the use of advanced metrics in a a good few fields. I think the way they are used is improper, especially in football, and that they are over used. The field creates a massive opportunity for people with out a sporting back ground to get into pro sports management. It’s abused to an absurd level now. 

I feel like the cfls use here is entirely a scam. 

high level use, when to kick fgs, and the other stuff I mentioned earlier plus stuff like planning rest and intensity in practice is big. I personally think some advanced stats in athletic measurement is valuable as well. 
 

I hate what it’s done to basketball offences in the nba, but understand it. I do enjoy some of the chances on D though. 

My problem with analytics is that it doesn't weigh the gravity of the situation. Each play is given equal value, and of course, that is not how football works. It's a game of big plays at the right time.

[Mark H.]

42 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

My problem with analytics is that it doesn't weigh the gravity of the situation. Each play is given equal value, and of course, that is not how football works. It's a game of big plays at the right time.

They could do that, though. Using something like a weighted mean would be pretty easy to do. They could also create confidence intervals, based on how often a team executes / allows plays > 30 yards 

 

[HardCoreBlue]

15 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

They could do that, though. Using something like a weighted mean would be pretty easy to do. They could also create confidence intervals, based on how often a team executes / allows plays > 30 yards 

 

You lost me after they.

[Mark H.]

Weighted mean: you calculate an average but give more weight to significant values

Confidence interval: based on how far away from the average your values are 

 

[GCn20]

16 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

They could do that, though. Using something like a weighted mean would be pretty easy to do. They could also create confidebce intervals, based on how often a team executes / allows plays > 30 yards 

 

Still would be very subjective. A 30 yard play in garbage time vs a close game for instance. Even a pass knockdown on a 2nd and medium in a close game late in the 4th carries a ton more weight than an interception when up by 10 points for instance. Just too many variables to weigh. There are significant moments in games that we as fans usually point to that just don't seem so obvious until after the fact. How do you weigh that on stats alone. You can't. You have to put each play to the eyeball test by significance of circumstance, and that renders analytics of a game like football kind of useless. Great for games like baseball, or even hockey, but football has too many moving parts that have to move in synchronicity for player analytics to be largely useful. Unlike most team sports it is extremely hard for any football player to excel if those around him do not as well. TEAM analytics, one could make an argument for, but not player.

Edited July 4 by GCn20

[Mark H.]

Just now, GCn20 said:

Still would be very subjective. A 30 yard play in garbage time vs a close game for instance. Even a pass knockdown on a 2nd and medium in a close game late in the 4th carries a ton more weight than an interception when up by 10 points for instance. Just too many variables to weigh. There are significant moments in games that we as fans usually point to that just don't seem so obvious until after the fact. How do you weigh that on stats alone.

You obviously don't weigh everything on stats alone. But there are some basic stats that can be useful 

[GCn20]

2 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

You obviously don't weigh everything on stats alone. But there are some basic stats that can be useful 

For sure. All stats can be useful to a certain degree. However, like PFF does, claiming that Jake was the best DL last week....that must be put to the eyeball and situational test before anyone should make such a claim.

[Mike]

14 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

For sure. All stats can be useful to a certain degree. However, like PFF does, claiming that Jake was the best DL last week....that must be put to the eyeball and situational test before anyone should make such a claim.

It’s not PFF, which I’ll at least give credit to for watching games.

Pro Stats Canada or whatever it’s called - the guy who gave Jake a top production rating - literally just box score watches and applies some weirdo formula to spit out content. In fairness to him, he does point out on his social media that “productive” =/= “best” but at the same time, he buries that statement in the middle of a whole word salad where he spends 3000 words to ultimately say “my ratings are just statistic compilation”

[bigg jay]

[WinnipegGordo]

 

[JohnnyAbonny]

32 minutes ago, Mike said:

It’s not PFF, which I’ll at least give credit to for watching games.

Pro Stats Canada or whatever it’s called - the guy who gave Jake a top production rating - literally just box score watches and applies some weirdo formula to spit out content. In fairness to him, he does point out on his social media that “productive” =/= “best” but at the same time, he buries that statement in the middle of a whole word salad where he spends 3000 words to ultimately say “my ratings are just statistic compilation”

Not only Jake, he had the damn punter rated. Like, did that run count as a punting stat in that guy’s formula? 

[Mike]

I look at depth charts every week and I genuinely believe - even healthy - we are one of the most talent poor rosters in the league 

[JohnnyAbonny]

8 minutes ago, bigg jay said:

No big changes, but man that’s a rough, rough looking WR corps, LBs too. Having Augustine, Feltmate and MCI is a waste of a roster spot.  So is Myron Mitchell. 

[ddanger]

On 2024-07-02 at 9:49 PM, Arnold_Palmer said:

No concern my ass. If he’s injured that’s fine but at 0-4 I want my starters getting reps. If they put an injured Collaros with no reps into the game I’m going to be upset, might as well roll with Streveler until hes healthy enough to be at 100 percent.

totally agree with this!

[JohnnyAbonny]

3 minutes ago, Mike said:

I look at depth charts every week and I genuinely believe - even healthy - we are one of the most talent poor rosters in the league 

Yeah, we’re ******