Bomber Drafting Trends

[Rids]

That's true (the devil's advocate would say that Westerman in BC isn't a starter either but every CFL team would love to have him).

 

 

Using Winnipeg's Week 19 for example they had drafted 4 of their 7 NI starters (Muamba, Labbe, Greaves, Watson) while Sorensen and Morley were drafted by other teams and Rory Kohlert was undrafted entering the League. 

 

The downside of only looking at starters vs back ups/special teams players is that some guys like Carl Fitzgerald will never show up as a starter as long as he gets placed into a FB/H-Back role.

[Rids]

How many of the players we drafted have actually made the game day roster of the Bombers or another team

 

15 in the last 4 years; 16 from the last 5 drafts. 

 

That's out of 25 players drafted in the past 5 years. 

 

So 15 out of 21 have played a regular season game in the CFL (4 years)

16 out of 25 have played a regular season game in the CFL (5 years)

Edited May 2, 2014 by Rids

[TrueBlue]

Interesting info.  Thanks Rids.

 

'In the CFL' isn't a very good indication of how good the draft pick is.  What's the % of starters from each teams drafts?  For example: Swiston, Pencer, Jade and Kito all show as in the CFL, but none are starters.  

 

 

I wouldn't be downgrading a player's worth based on non-starter status.  Many players contribute on special teams, and get meaningful backup reps and are counted on when needed to.  That's something too. 

 

The word "starter" is overrated.

[Atomic]

Interesting info.  Thanks Rids.

 

'In the CFL' isn't a very good indication of how good the draft pick is.  What's the % of starters from each teams drafts?  For example: Swiston, Pencer, Jade and Kito all show as in the CFL, but none are starters.

So a fifth rounder who doesn't become a starter but is a special teams stud, is a bad draft pick?

[TBURGESS]

 

Interesting info.  Thanks Rids.

 

'In the CFL' isn't a very good indication of how good the draft pick is.  What's the % of starters from each teams drafts?  For example: Swiston, Pencer, Jade and Kito all show as in the CFL, but none are starters.

So a fifth rounder who doesn't become a starter but is a special teams stud, is a bad draft pick?

 

Nope. Pretty much any 5th rounder who becomes a stud in the CFL is a good draft pick.  

 

All draft picks aren't equal and Rid's stats treat them as equal.  Good starters are worth more than average starters, who are worth more than just starting because they are an NI or because teams need a 7th starter, who are worth more than a good backup, who are worth more than fringe players.

 

First rounders are expected to become starters.  If they don't then they are bad picks, even if they stay on the team for a while.  

 

There are draft picks who hang on for a few years just because the NI's on a specific team aren't very good.  I wouldn't call them good draft picks they just got lucky t be drafted by the right team.

 

There are high draft picks who teams keep around mostly because they were drafted high.  They take up a roster spot for a couple of years, but aren't good draft picks.

 

Being a starter means a lot.  It means your one of the top 7 NI's on the team.  These are the guys we really need to draft.

[blitzmore]

 

 

Interesting info.  Thanks Rids.

 

'In the CFL' isn't a very good indication of how good the draft pick is.  What's the % of starters from each teams drafts?  For example: Swiston, Pencer, Jade and Kito all show as in the CFL, but none are starters.

So a fifth rounder who doesn't become a starter but is a special teams stud, is a bad draft pick?

 

Nope. Pretty much any 5th rounder who becomes a stud in the CFL is a good draft pick.  

 

All draft picks aren't equal and Rid's stats treat them as equal.  Good starters are worth more than average starters, who are worth more than just starting because they are an NI or because teams need a 7th starter, who are worth more than a good backup, who are worth more than fringe players.

 

First rounders are expected to become starters.  If they don't then they are bad picks, even if they stay on the team for a while.  

 

There are draft picks who hang on for a few years just because the NI's on a specific team aren't very good.  I wouldn't call them good draft picks they just got lucky t be drafted by the right team.

 

There are high draft picks who teams keep around mostly because they were drafted high.  They take up a roster spot for a couple of years, but aren't good draft picks.

 

Being a starter means a lot.  It means your one of the top 7 NI's on the team.  These are the guys we really need to draft.

 

And that's what they're trying to accomplish this year.

[17to85]

All draft picks aren't equal and Rid's stats treat them as equal.  

Only if you choose to read more into them than is already there, but that's not a flaw in the numbers only a flaw in the person reading that into them. 

[Rids]

 

 

Nope. Pretty much any 5th rounder who becomes a stud in the CFL is a good draft pick.  

 

All draft picks aren't equal and Rid's stats treat them as equal.  Good starters are worth more than average starters, who are worth more than just starting because they are an NI or because teams need a 7th starter, who are worth more than a good backup, who are worth more than fringe players.

 

First rounders are expected to become starters.  If they don't then they are bad picks, even if they stay on the team for a while.  

 

There are draft picks who hang on for a few years just because the NI's on a specific team aren't very good.  I wouldn't call them good draft picks they just got lucky t be drafted by the right team.

 

There are high draft picks who teams keep around mostly because they were drafted high.  They take up a roster spot for a couple of years, but aren't good draft picks.

 

Being a starter means a lot.  It means your one of the top 7 NI's on the team.  These are the guys we really need to draft.

 

 

 

There are also draft picks that can't get past the depth with their draft team but become starters on other teams. There are schemes that some players can't make the adjustment for in one city but show up in another scheme and become all stars. 

 

In the CFL very rarely are high draft picks kept around simply for being high draft picks. What with contracts not being guaranteed and especially before they reach veteran status and their contracts lock in during September they are more than expendable. (Ameet Pall was drafted 5th overall and didn't last training camp)

 

I think some of the answers that you're looking for in these numbers can't be solved without being in the coaches office when they make some early season decisions or off season decisions about the formation of the team. A player could be the best FB in the CFL but it might not translate as being a great draft pick because that player won't count towards the 7 NI starters when the team starts 5 receivers.

 

Define the value of a $70,000 non import linebacker that can play 15 to 20 snaps a game and keep your $120,000 starting linebacker fresh in the 4Q by resting him during the special teams plays. That special teams/situational downs linebacker is likely easily replaced in the minds of the 30,000 watching from the stands but in the eyes of the coaching staff he's gold. He's a guy that knows his role, can step up in a pinch but probably won't tally more than 20 total tackles for the entire season. 

 

In a real life situation I'll point to Jabar Westerman who isn't a starter, doesn't rack up gaudy stats (25 tackles in 2 seasons) and all because of how he is used. Still beyond that he would be welcomed by all 8 other CFL teams should he come available. Also he'd instantly improve the value of Jake Thomas if he was acquired by the Bombers. Teams just can't play Moneyball in the CFL. They can't replace 50 tackles with different combinations that will produce more 50 tackles. There's a lot more involved in it. 

[JuranBoldenRules]

 

 

Interesting info.  Thanks Rids.

 

'In the CFL' isn't a very good indication of how good the draft pick is.  What's the % of starters from each teams drafts?  For example: Swiston, Pencer, Jade and Kito all show as in the CFL, but none are starters.

So a fifth rounder who doesn't become a starter but is a special teams stud, is a bad draft pick?

 

 

 

All draft picks aren't equal 

 

First rounders are expected to become starters.

 

 

And that sums up our current situation pretty well.   We haven't drafted a starter/strong contributor on O or D since Muamba, even with a 1st overall supplemental/7th overall 2012 (Poblah), 4th overall 2011 (Etienne), 3rd overall 2012 (Pencer) and 2nd overall 2013 (Mulumba) pick since the Muamba pick.  Even our mid-late picks haven't really turned into anything for us in the last 3 drafts.  2010 draft was great with Watson and Greaves.

 

Hopefully Pencer can be a player for us this year.  I don't think Mack's drafting was great, but I think you could make a strong argument that there was no chance to develop players with the crappy coaching staffs we've had too.

[JuranBoldenRules]

 

 

Nope. Pretty much any 5th rounder who becomes a stud in the CFL is a good draft pick.  

 

All draft picks aren't equal and Rid's stats treat them as equal.  Good starters are worth more than average starters, who are worth more than just starting because they are an NI or because teams need a 7th starter, who are worth more than a good backup, who are worth more than fringe players.

 

First rounders are expected to become starters.  If they don't then they are bad picks, even if they stay on the team for a while.  

 

There are draft picks who hang on for a few years just because the NI's on a specific team aren't very good.  I wouldn't call them good draft picks they just got lucky t be drafted by the right team.

 

There are high draft picks who teams keep around mostly because they were drafted high.  They take up a roster spot for a couple of years, but aren't good draft picks.

 

Being a starter means a lot.  It means your one of the top 7 NI's on the team.  These are the guys we really need to draft.

 

 

 

There are also draft picks that can't get past the depth with their draft team but become starters on other teams. There are schemes that some players can't make the adjustment for in one city but show up in another scheme and become all stars. 

 

In the CFL very rarely are high draft picks kept around simply for being high draft picks. What with contracts not being guaranteed and especially before they reach veteran status and their contracts lock in during September they are more than expendable. (Ameet Pall was drafted 5th overall and didn't last training camp)

 

I think some of the answers that you're looking for in these numbers can't be solved without being in the coaches office when they make some early season decisions or off season decisions about the formation of the team. A player could be the best FB in the CFL but it might not translate as being a great draft pick because that player won't count towards the 7 NI starters when the team starts 5 receivers.

 

Define the value of a $70,000 non import linebacker that can play 15 to 20 snaps a game and keep your $120,000 starting linebacker fresh in the 4Q by resting him during the special teams plays. That special teams/situational downs linebacker is likely easily replaced in the minds of the 30,000 watching from the stands but in the eyes of the coaching staff he's gold. He's a guy that knows his role, can step up in a pinch but probably won't tally more than 20 total tackles for the entire season. 

 

In a real life situation I'll point to Jabar Westerman who isn't a starter, doesn't rack up gaudy stats (25 tackles in 2 seasons) and all because of how he is used. Still beyond that he would be welcomed by all 8 other CFL teams should he come available. Also he'd instantly improve the value of Jake Thomas if he was acquired by the Bombers. Teams just can't play Moneyball in the CFL. They can't replace 50 tackles with different combinations that will produce more 50 tackles. There's a lot more involved in it. 

 

 

The Westerman not starting stuff is just semantics though.  He's part of a D-line rotation.  He takes one of the seven Canadian spots when he's on the field playing defense, if they choose to they can go all import in the secondary when he's on the field or have an extra IMP LB on the field, which is what they usually did with Westerman.  For all intents and purposes, Westerman, Reid and Larose are filling one of the seven NI spots in a platoon.

[TBURGESS]

There is nothing wrong with the numbers.  They just don't say what you think they do.

[Rids]

This is exactly the football discussion that I'm interested in. 

 

 

Where are we going wrong - in that what do you think I'm trying to show with these numbers? 

 

And for a second part what would show you the value of the draft pick? What would you look for to prove the value of a FB for instance?

[Rids]

 

 

 

Nope. Pretty much any 5th rounder who becomes a stud in the CFL is a good draft pick.  

 

All draft picks aren't equal and Rid's stats treat them as equal.  Good starters are worth more than average starters, who are worth more than just starting because they are an NI or because teams need a 7th starter, who are worth more than a good backup, who are worth more than fringe players.

 

First rounders are expected to become starters.  If they don't then they are bad picks, even if they stay on the team for a while.  

 

There are draft picks who hang on for a few years just because the NI's on a specific team aren't very good.  I wouldn't call them good draft picks they just got lucky t be drafted by the right team.

 

There are high draft picks who teams keep around mostly because they were drafted high.  They take up a roster spot for a couple of years, but aren't good draft picks.

 

Being a starter means a lot.  It means your one of the top 7 NI's on the team.  These are the guys we really need to draft.

 

 

 

There are also draft picks that can't get past the depth with their draft team but become starters on other teams. There are schemes that some players can't make the adjustment for in one city but show up in another scheme and become all stars. 

 

In the CFL very rarely are high draft picks kept around simply for being high draft picks. What with contracts not being guaranteed and especially before they reach veteran status and their contracts lock in during September they are more than expendable. (Ameet Pall was drafted 5th overall and didn't last training camp)

 

I think some of the answers that you're looking for in these numbers can't be solved without being in the coaches office when they make some early season decisions or off season decisions about the formation of the team. A player could be the best FB in the CFL but it might not translate as being a great draft pick because that player won't count towards the 7 NI starters when the team starts 5 receivers.

 

Define the value of a $70,000 non import linebacker that can play 15 to 20 snaps a game and keep your $120,000 starting linebacker fresh in the 4Q by resting him during the special teams plays. That special teams/situational downs linebacker is likely easily replaced in the minds of the 30,000 watching from the stands but in the eyes of the coaching staff he's gold. He's a guy that knows his role, can step up in a pinch but probably won't tally more than 20 total tackles for the entire season. 

 

In a real life situation I'll point to Jabar Westerman who isn't a starter, doesn't rack up gaudy stats (25 tackles in 2 seasons) and all because of how he is used. Still beyond that he would be welcomed by all 8 other CFL teams should he come available. Also he'd instantly improve the value of Jake Thomas if he was acquired by the Bombers. Teams just can't play Moneyball in the CFL. They can't replace 50 tackles with different combinations that will produce more 50 tackles. There's a lot more involved in it. 

 

 

The Westerman not starting stuff is just semantics though.  He's part of a D-line rotation.  He takes one of the seven Canadian spots when he's on the field playing defense, if they choose to they can go all import in the secondary when he's on the field or have an extra IMP LB on the field, which is what they usually did with Westerman.  For all intents and purposes, Westerman, Reid and Larose are filling one of the seven NI spots in a platoon.

 

 

Technically he's not that simple to describe. LaRose was their every down safety, they started 6 NIs on offense so lots of flexibility and when Westerman came in it wasn't to fulfill a spot on the platoon. He was used a lot more than that, playing 65% of the snaps. 

[17to85]

There is nothing wrong with the numbers.  They just don't say what you think they do.

They're just numbers as I've said many times, no one is trying to say they say anything, you're just making assumptions like you always do. 

[TBURGESS]

 

There is nothing wrong with the numbers.  They just don't say what you think they do.

They're just numbers as I've said many times, no one is trying to say they say anything, you're just making assumptions like you always do. 

 

 

The % of draft picks still in the CFL by team doesn't mean much.  That's not an assumption.  It's a fact.  You're just showing that you don't know the meaning of the word assumption.

[johnzo]

 

Technically he's not that simple to describe. LaRose was their every down safety, they started 6 NIs on offense so lots of flexibility and when Westerman came in it wasn't to fulfill a spot on the platoon. He was used a lot more than that, playing 65% of the snaps. 

 

Hey Rids, is that an educated guess or are you tracking the number of snaps each player plays for their team?

 

This is not to call you out on guessing, just to say that if you are tracking that kinda thing, it's awesome and it's exactly the kind of analysis I love to read about the CFL and please post more of it.  It's frustrating that the announcers on CFL games never pay attention to substitutions and rotations, even during injury situations.

[sweep the leg]

 

The % of draft picks still in the CFL by team doesn't mean much.  That's not an assumption.  It's a fact.  You're just showing that you don't know the meaning of the word assumption.

 

Isn't it an opinion?

[Rids]

 

 

Technically he's not that simple to describe. LaRose was their every down safety, they started 6 NIs on offense so lots of flexibility and when Westerman came in it wasn't to fulfill a spot on the platoon. He was used a lot more than that, playing 65% of the snaps. 

 

Hey Rids, is that an educated guess or are you tracking the number of snaps each player plays for their team?

 

This is not to call you out on guessing, just to say that if you are tracking that kinda thing, it's awesome and it's exactly the kind of analysis I love to read about the CFL and please post more of it.  It's frustrating that the announcers on CFL games never pay attention to substitutions and rotations, even during injury situations.

 

 

It's an educated guess based on tracking snaps in a couple games. I do track each team a couple times a year, the time needed to do it more just isn't available right now.

 

I should be more careful in how I state it. 

[17to85]

 

 

There is nothing wrong with the numbers.  They just don't say what you think they do.

They're just numbers as I've said many times, no one is trying to say they say anything, you're just making assumptions like you always do. 

 

 

The % of draft picks still in the CFL by team doesn't mean much.  That's not an assumption.  It's a fact.  You're just showing that you don't know the meaning of the word assumption.

 

you're the only one trying to pretend that they do mean a lot here though.... all I see are the numbers (which are the facts here) being presented. 

[TBURGESS]

 

 

 

There is nothing wrong with the numbers.  They just don't say what you think they do.

They're just numbers as I've said many times, no one is trying to say they say anything, you're just making assumptions like you always do. 

 

 

The % of draft picks still in the CFL by team doesn't mean much.  That's not an assumption.  It's a fact.  You're just showing that you don't know the meaning of the word assumption.

 

you're the only one trying to pretend that they do mean a lot here though.... all I see are the numbers (which are the facts here) being presented. 

 

I'm not trying to pretend they mean a lot.  Re-read the bolded part again, slowly. 

[Floyd]

All I know is if I picked for the bombers, we'd have...

 

Junior Turner - instead of Etienne

Edem - instead of Mulumba

Aprile as a receiver not a safety

Baillargeon - instead of Dunn

Matt Walter - instead of Volny

Plesius and Rockhill - instead of Pencer

Ben D'Aguilar or C.O Prime - instead of Kris Robertson

Any OL - instead of Woodson and Chris Smith in 2010

 

Everyone else I never really second guessed or threw anything at the wall when they were picked.

 

That's a good NI core - I want a commission.

[SPuDS]

Wow.. You should be like, a draft consultant or something! Show this post to Walters ASAP!

[17to85]

 

 

 

 

There is nothing wrong with the numbers.  They just don't say what you think they do.

They're just numbers as I've said many times, no one is trying to say they say anything, you're just making assumptions like you always do. 

 

 

The % of draft picks still in the CFL by team doesn't mean much.  That's not an assumption.  It's a fact.  You're just showing that you don't know the meaning of the word assumption.

 

you're the only one trying to pretend that they do mean a lot here though.... all I see are the numbers (which are the facts here) being presented. 

 

I'm not trying to pretend they mean a lot.  Re-read the bolded part again, slowly. 

 

yeah but who is trying to say the numbers mean a ton? You're the only one attributing that to other people. As usual you like to jump to conclusions and rage about crap that no one is actually saying. 

[kelownabomberfan]

I'm not trying to pretend they mean a lot.  Re-read the bolded part again, slowly.

LOL - face it, you just come here to pick fights don't you?

[TBURGESS]

 

I'm not trying to pretend they mean a lot.  Re-read the bolded part again, slowly.

LOL - face it, you just come here to pick fights don't you?

 

LOL - Face it.... It's 17 trying to pick a fight, not me.