U.S. Federal Election

[The Unknown Poster]

I feel Im on a roll and I read a post on another message board I frequent that discussed the possibility of a Democratic ticket with Biden as the POTUS (and Warren as his running mate).  That led to a discussion where most people feel we are headed towards another Clinton/Bush race (which I, quite honestly, would love to see).

 

I wrote a blog before Obama's first federal election with some predictions that were 100% wrong (though I did predict Jeb would eventually run even though he said he wouldnt...remains to be seen).

 

Do we have some people on here who are interested in US politics (and please not the "America sucks and Bush flew the planes into the buildings stuff).

 

Early predictions?

[iso_55]

Biden seemed like an arrogant politician in the last presidential election in the Vice President debates. If the Republicans hadn't let the far right Tea Party hijack them they might have a chance to beat the Democrats. I'm not sold on America totally loving Obama anymore like they seemed to back in 2008. But somehow such things as religion, gay rights & abortion always gets intertwined with that party. They push a lot of mainstream Conservative Americans who aren't social conservatives away. They either vote Democrat or don't vote at all. Their base is eroding, I believe. 

[17to85]

Hard to care about American politics that much, ultimately the guy who winds up in the white house doesn't really matter since everyone in Washington is bought and paid for and if the lobby groups don't like something it doesn't get passed and if they want something passed it gets passed. Their system IMO is horribly broken. 

[Goalie]

all i have to say regarding the us elections is... we the people.

[The Unknown Poster]

Obama is extremely unpopular.  I think I saw a recent poll showing his popularity hovering around Bush low levels.

 

When Obama was first elected it was a real head scratcher.  Ignoring the conspiracy theories for a moment (that he was a CIA asset groomed for this from the beginning), he had nothing of substance to say.  Ever.  People would swoon at his presence and hang on his every words and demand "change" and when asked what that means they'd squeel and yell "change!".  No clue.  The American people usually get the President they deserve and they sure did with Obama.  An empty suit if there ever was one.

 

But the Rebublicans cut their own throats with the choosing of Palin as VP candidate.  I recall a friend who had a local radio show, the day Palin was announced he did a story about this being the turning point in McCain's favour and I texted him and said he just gave the election away.  It was such a transparent effort to get the Hilary voters and mute the "change" demands by choosing a woman.  But it insulted Hilary supporters and everytime she opened her mouth it made you question McCain's judgement.  The fact he was old made the "heartbeat away" argument louder and NO ONE wanted Palin anywhere near the big chair.

 

Democrats probably should have gone with Hilary as VP, if not initially than in the last election, to set her up for 2016.  But Hilary smartly has distanced herself from Obama.  Her age will work against her but Bill will work in her favour.  Its a shame the Rules of Succession wont allow him to hold a position like Secretary of State.  he's likely not interested now but Hilary as VP and Bill as SoState would have been great.

 

I for one was a Bush supporter.  While every congressmen was able to jump off the bandwagon once the tide turned in the war, the President didnt really have that luxury.  The biggest issue during his term was the Intelligence community being wrong, and the justification being off the mark.  They focused too much on "Iraq has WMD's" and too little on the fact Iraq routinely violated the Gulf War cease fire and plotted to assasinate a US President.  Thats reason enough to go in and take him out.  They just shouldnt have stayed.

[17to85]

Obama has low approval ratings for the reasons I said. Doesn't matter who is in the office nothing changes. People were tired of Bush and the Republicans so they went for the Democrat and nothing changed. Nothing will change no matter who gets in next time. They're government is beholden to large corporations and lobby groups. 

[The Unknown Poster]

Obama has low approval ratings for the reasons I said. Doesn't matter who is in the office nothing changes. People were tired of Bush and the Republicans so they went for the Democrat and nothing changed. Nothing will change no matter who gets in next time. They're government is beholden to large corporations and lobby groups. 

I dont disagree.  Its really become disappointing.  When you factor in the amount of money it costs to run, will there ever be a non-millionaire as President again?

 

Im not sure what could happen to change that other than a complete collapse of the American empire.

 

But...I choose not to subscribe to the "it doesnt matter" position.  If you dont vote, you cant complain.  Or in this case, at least take an interest.  And to me the most interesting aspect is the potential for Clinton/Bush again.  It sure seems like Hilary's election to lose (she would have steamrolled to victory if not for Obama and really, had the Demo's been smart, they would have wanted a Clinton/Obama ticket with Hilary as POTUS, setting up Obama for 2016 with "experience").  But Jeb is a wild card.  He's the "likeable" Bush.  And the storyline that Mama Bush doesnt want him to run is really ingenius.  Jeb will run, against mom's wishes because "the country has called him to serve".  He has a lot of experience and cache too.  If you believe some people, H.W. never wanted George Jr to run, seeing the Presidency as Jeb's destiny.

[17to85]

Well they could start by getting rid of this notion in the states that voting for a 3rd party is wasting your vote. They need more choices then there could be a real meaningful change. Right now you have a right wing party and an even further right wing party arguing about stupid **** that shouldn't even matter. 

[The Unknown Poster]

Well they could start by getting rid of this notion in the states that voting for a 3rd party is wasting your vote. They need more choices then there could be a real meaningful change. Right now you have a right wing party and an even further right wing party arguing about stupid **** that shouldn't even matter. 

Yeah but then you have Canada where we have a three party system (sort of) and when anyone but the Liberals win, the media moans about how the winning party didnt have the support of the majority of people.

[17to85]

what we have is 3 parties fighting for the middle ground, much better than 2 parties making nonsensical issues the focus to try and woo fringe groups. 

[The Unknown Poster]

what we have is 3 parties fighting for the middle ground, much better than 2 parties making nonsensical issues the focus to try and woo fringe groups. 

To a degree.  If you listen to the Liberals though, Harper is a crazy maniacle right wing fanatatic.  Soldiers in our streets.  With GUNS!  Illegal abortions!  Death Pentalty!  Everyone in jail!  Children starving in the streets!

 

And if you look at the NDP, its a rob from the rich mentality.  Im biased ofcourse, but I think we're far better off with a conservative government.  Though usually the longer parties are in power, the more arrogant they become.  Cant fathom Canada with boy blunder as PM though.

 

So...early predictions for the US election?

[blueandgoldguy]

It will be Hillary's election to lose.  Can't see the Republicans reign of error from 2000-08 being so quickly forgotten even with Obama's rather mediocre run as president.. which was no doubt hindered by not having control of the house and senate thus making it rather difficult to affect any real change.  Funny how Republican leaders like John McCain would publicly urge the party to "work together with the Dems to find a middle ground" or saying something like that, but in practice the party did anything but - see the shutdown of government in 2013.  Absolutely childish.

 

Jeb Bush, from all accounts is the "smart one" in the family and not nearly as conservative (in some respects) as his brother but that probably won't sway the several million voters in America who aren't predisposed to voting for any one particular party, to swing towards the Republicans. 

 

Then you have the GOP, which primarily consists of white elderly men many of whom are very vocal and rigid about their socially conservative views..as in no equality for homosexuals, anti-abortionist and yes, racist although not as overtly as in the past; their outmoded ideas regarding crime and punishment (how is having the highest percentage of any OECD country's population in jail and still having the highest rates of crime, both violent and overall, of any OECD country working out for you USA?) and gun control (highest rates of gun-related deaths of any OECD country).  They have just grown more out of touch with the majority of voters as time has passed and the party is not at all representative of the voting population (over 50% women and nearly 40% hispanic and african-american). 

 

Unfortunately for the GOP, it's doubtful anything will change despite losing two elections in a row quite handily.  Too many members in the party not willing to or capable of change.  Stubborn...arrogant....religious nutjobs.  Need to be reigned in or kicked out of the party for them to have a chance in a socially progressive world.  Assuming it's Jeb, not sure if he is up to the task.  Even if he is he has to contend with his brothers legacy..widely considered to be the worst president in US history - see Iraq War, subprime mortgage crisis,  Katrina debacle, taking Clinton's surplus and turning it into a the worst deficit in US history all the while lowering taxes. 

 

Other than deficit and employment issues that have continued on from the previous administration, Obama and the Dems haven't had scandals even remotely on the level as the previous Bush Admin which will work in their favour.

 

Early estimates for 2016 - Dems take 52% of the popular vote with 70 million votes and at least 340 seats.

[The Unknown Poster]

History will judge George W a lot better then it does now.  9/11 happened and his response was reasonable.  The Iraq war will always be the sticking point but when people really look at the situation outside of 9/11, its a wonder Iraq went as long as they did without military action against.  What happened in Iraq was more a failing of the united nations than anything.  The U.S. just picked the one thing they thought the American people would get behind the most (WMD's) and it turned out to be mostly wrong (though Iraq used chemical weapons previously so its a fallacy that they had NO WMD if you include chemical weapons in that).

 

I agree about the right.  Look at Canada.  When the right fractured, it just handed election after election to the Liberals.  And it took Harper to "unite" the right and pull in the crazies to a more moderate view.  They really need to do that in the US.  The Cons that are pulled further right just erode their larger morderate base and as you said, where are they going to go?  Dems.  And someone like Hilary, with the popularity of the Clintons, will attract moderate Cons to their side.

 

Jeb comes across as a guy who could attract people too but can he be a uniting force for the right?  Can he control the wing nuts?  Maybe...if only because his family is very, very powerful.  But it remains to be seen.

[Goalie]

Hillary will be 69 years old in 2016 and 77 if she serves 2 terms, I don't think hillary has a chance.

 

What the USA needs is new blood, no clintons, no bushes. 

 

Someone brand new. Ted Cruz comes to mind as a guy who could one day be president. I believe that's his name.

[The Unknown Poster]

Hillary will be 69 years old in 2016 and 77 if she serves 2 terms, I don't think hillary has a chance.

 

What the USA needs is new blood, no clintons, no bushes. 

 

Someone brand new. Ted Cruz comes to mind as a guy who could one day be president. I believe that's his name.

You're not wrong.  But Im not sure Hilary's age will hang around her neck like it did John mcCain.  McCain came across, sometimes, as old and out of touch.  Hilary seems pretty in tune with the world and having serves as Secretary of State so recently, she's got "modern" cache.  I think the Clinton's also invoke memories of a more fond time.  Bill was the first "cool" President since...JFK?  There was a very JFK vibe around him.  Hilary isnt Jackie O...in fact she's better because she's not just a stand by (behind) your man type.  She's made her own place in the world.

 

Bill's speech at the DNC in 2012 was riviting.  If he gives speeches like that on behalf of his wife, the Clinton Power Couple could be unstoppable.

 

I always liked Edwards (I think is his name, escapes me now).  Young, good looking, had the cool southern drawl.  Then he cheated on his dying wife.  Doh.