Buck vs Goltz (Advanced Statistics)

[Mike]

Figured I'd make this thread since I always point out that "advanced" statistics do NOT favor Buck Pierce when comparing him against other quarterbacks. I'll try and update this weekly just to keep it current especially with Hall playing this week to add another comparison.

 

What I looked at mostly was % of two and outs, average offense per drive, points per possession, etc. For the sake of continuity, when I tally this stuff up, I counted a turnover prior to a first down being gained as a two and out but a turnover after a first down had been gained was not.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Week 1

Buck Pierce - 19 possessions, 12 two and outs (63%), 3 turnovers, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 0.94

Average yardage per possession - 16.26 yards (longest 73 yards)

 

Week 2

Buck Pierce - 18 possessions, 8 two and outs (44%), 3 turnovers, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1

Average yardage per possession - 20.1 yards (longest 105 yards)

 

Justin Goltz - 1 possession, 1 two and out, 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 0

Average yardage per possession - 4 (longest 4 yards)

 

Week 3

Buck Pierce - 15 possessions, 6 two and outs (40%), 3 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.2

Average yardage per possession - 22.6 (longest 92 yards)

 

One thing I will point out, although the stats are what they are ... All 6 of the two and outs in this game were in the second half, where we had 8 possessions. That's horrible second half efficiency. In fact, aside from a 92 yard drive while Hamilton was playing prevent, our net offense in the second half of this game was -7 yards.

 

Week 4

Buck Pierce - 8 possessions, 5 two and outs (62%), 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 0.75

Average yardage per possession - 20.62 (longest 65 yards)

 

Justin Goltz - 7 possessions, 2 two and outs (28%), 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 1.28

Average yardage per possession - 29 (longest 64 yards)

 

Week 5

Justin Goltz - 13 possessions, 6 two and outs (46%), 1 turnover, 3 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.61

Average yardage per possession - 25.23 (longest 80 yards)

 

Week 6

Justin Goltz - 15 possessions, 5 two and outs (33%), 1 turnover, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.2

Average yardage per possession - 17.2 (longest 41 yards)

 

Week 8

Max Hall - 14 possessions, 6 two and outs (42%), 3 turnovers, 1 touchdown

Average points per possession - 0.64

Average yardage per possession - 23.92 (longest 103 yards)

 

Buck Pierce - 1 possession, 1 two and out (100%)

Average points per possession - 0

Average yardage per possession - 9 (longest 9 yards)

 

2013 totals to date

Buck Pierce - 61 possessions, 32 two and outs (52.4%), 7 turnovers (11.4%), 7 touchdowns (11.4%)

Average points per possession - 0.98

Average yardage per possession - 19.58 yards

 

Justin Goltz - 36 possessions, 14 two and outs (38.8%), 4 turnovers, (11.1%), 5 touchdowns (13.8%)

Average points per possession - 1.14

Average yardage per possession - 21.91 yards

 

Max Hall - 14 possessions, 6 two and outs (42%), 3 turnovers (21%), 1 touchdown (7%)

Average points per possession - 0.64

Average yardage per possession - 23.92

[tacklewasher]

So please, tell me more about how Buck Pierce is better.

 

I understand what your are saying, but **** those are depressing stats for both of them. Especially the ave points per possession.

[Mike]

I understand what your are saying, but **** those are depressing stats for both of them. Especially the ave points per possession.

 

100% agreed.

 

They're both atrocious, but what stood out to me that doesn't really show up in those numbers is that Goltz seems to just pepper his two and out possessions in all over the place whereas Pierce will commonly go 5 or 6 possessions in a row without a single first down.

[Mike]

More statistics to throw at you ...

 

Buck Pierce has been sacked 16 times on 122 dropbacks this year. That means he is getting sacked once every 7.62 dropbacks.

Justin Goltz has been sacked 5 times on 83 dropbacks this year. That means he is getting sacked once every 16.6 dropbacks.

 

Another one ...

 

Buck Pierce running the offense has resulted in 53 first downs on 60 possessions this year. That is an average of .88 first downs per possession.

Justin Goltz running the offense has resulted in 46 first downs on 36 possessions this year. That is an average of 1.27 first downs per possession.

 

Please, tell me more about how Buck is better than Goltz.

[kelownabomberfan]

I was going to say that Buck is more professional with the media, but he's pretty much tied Goltz in that department too in terms of a major fail.

[17to85]

There is just no way that you can justify favouring Pierce over Goltz. That's a low bar we're setting here but it's just the facts. Goltz is the better player right now and he's so much younger and less experienced so at least he's got a chance to get better. 

 

I am so over Buck Pierce just because of how bad he's been for the last couple seasons, they really need to cut the guy just so the temptation isn't there for the coaches to actually play him. The team will never progress with him.

[Jpan85]

The stat that boggles my mind is how we are so efficient in the red zone while the other 90 yards of the field is complete incompetence. This coming off three years where we have been pathetic in the red zone.

[TrueBlue]

Figured I'd make this thread since I always point out that "advanced" statistics do NOT favor Buck Pierce when comparing him against other quarterbacks. I'll try and update this weekly just to keep it current especially with Hall playing this week to add another comparison.

 

What I looked at mostly was % of two and outs, average offense per drive, points per possession, etc. For the sake of continuity, when I tally this stuff up, I counted a turnover prior to a first down being gained as a two and out but a turnover after a first down had been gained was not.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Week 1

Buck Pierce - 19 possessions, 12 two and outs (63%), 3 turnovers, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 0.94

Average yardage per possession - 16.26 yards (longest 73 yards)

 

Week 2

Buck Pierce - 18 possessions, 8 two and outs (44%), 3 turnovers, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1

Average yardage per possession - 20.1 yards (longest 105 yards)

 

Justin Goltz - 1 possession, 1 two and out, 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 0

Average yardage per possession - 4 (longest 4 yards)

 

Week 3

Buck Pierce - 15 possessions, 6 two and outs (40%), 3 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.2

Average yardage per possession - 22.6 (longest 92 yards)

 

One thing I will point out, although the stats are what they are ... All 6 of the two and outs in this game were in the second half, where we had 8 possessions. That's horrible second half efficiency. In fact, aside from a 92 yard drive while Hamilton was playing prevent, our net offense in the second half of this game was -7 yards.

 

Week 4

Buck Pierce - 8 possessions, 5 two and outs (62%), 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 0.75

Average yardage per possession - 20.62 (longest 65 yards)

 

Justin Goltz - 7 possessions, 2 two and outs (28%), 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 1.28

Average yardage per possession - 29 (longest 64 yards)

 

Week 5

Justin Goltz - 13 possessions, 6 two and outs (46%), 1 turnover, 3 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.61

Average yardage per possession - 25.23 (longest 80 yards)

 

Week 6

Justin Goltz - 15 possessions, 5 two and outs (33%), 1 turnover, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.2

Average yardage per possession - 17.2 (longest 41 yards)

 

2013 totals to date

Buck Pierce - 60 possessions, 31 two and outs (51.6%), 7 turnovers (11.6%), 7 touchdowns (11.6%)

Average points per possession - 1

Average yardage per possession - 19.58 yards

 

Justin Goltz - 36 possessions, 14 two and outs (38.8%), 4 turnovers, (11.1%), 5 touchdowns (13.8%)

Average points per possession - 1.14

Average yardage per possession - 21.91 yards

 

So please, tell me more about how Buck Pierce is better.

 

I had a hard time not bursting into uncontrollable laughter all the way through that post.

[WildPath]

Yeah, seems to confirm what I've been watching. Goltz has outplayed Pierce this year. Seems like the coaching staff, or maybe just Burke, has a belief that Buck will 'find his form' eventually and lead the team to great success out of the gutter. Really disappointed with the choice to promote Buck to #2. Don't really know how that's justified.

 

I thought I remember Burke saying on a coaches show earlier in the year they were making some moves with the practice roster in order to stay under the salary cap. Still floors me that we've found a way to be close to the cap even after releasing Hef. Its probably only a matter of time before Buck is eventually released.

[Onyenegecha]

Figured I'd make this thread since I always point out that "advanced" statistics do NOT favor Buck Pierce when comparing him against other quarterbacks. I'll try and update this weekly just to keep it current especially with Hall playing this week to add another comparison.

 

What I looked at mostly was % of two and outs, average offense per drive, points per possession, etc. For the sake of continuity, when I tally this stuff up, I counted a turnover prior to a first down being gained as a two and out but a turnover after a first down had been gained was not.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Week 1

Buck Pierce - 19 possessions, 12 two and outs (63%), 3 turnovers, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 0.94

Average yardage per possession - 16.26 yards (longest 73 yards)

 

Week 2

Buck Pierce - 18 possessions, 8 two and outs (44%), 3 turnovers, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1

Average yardage per possession - 20.1 yards (longest 105 yards)

 

Justin Goltz - 1 possession, 1 two and out, 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 0

Average yardage per possession - 4 (longest 4 yards)

 

Week 3

Buck Pierce - 15 possessions, 6 two and outs (40%), 3 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.2

Average yardage per possession - 22.6 (longest 92 yards)

 

One thing I will point out, although the stats are what they are ... All 6 of the two and outs in this game were in the second half, where we had 8 possessions. That's horrible second half efficiency. In fact, aside from a 92 yard drive while Hamilton was playing prevent, our net offense in the second half of this game was -7 yards.

 

Week 4

Buck Pierce - 8 possessions, 5 two and outs (62%), 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 0.75

Average yardage per possession - 20.62 (longest 65 yards)

 

Justin Goltz - 7 possessions, 2 two and outs (28%), 1 turnover

Average points per possession - 1.28

Average yardage per possession - 29 (longest 64 yards)

 

Week 5

Justin Goltz - 13 possessions, 6 two and outs (46%), 1 turnover, 3 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.61

Average yardage per possession - 25.23 (longest 80 yards)

 

Week 6

Justin Goltz - 15 possessions, 5 two and outs (33%), 1 turnover, 2 touchdowns

Average points per possession - 1.2

Average yardage per possession - 17.2 (longest 41 yards)

 

2013 totals to date

Buck Pierce - 60 possessions, 31 two and outs (51.6%), 7 turnovers (11.6%), 7 touchdowns (11.6%)

Average points per possession - 1

Average yardage per possession - 19.58 yards

 

Justin Goltz - 36 possessions, 14 two and outs (38.8%), 4 turnovers, (11.1%), 5 touchdowns (13.8%)

Average points per possession - 1.14

Average yardage per possession - 21.91 yards

 

So please, tell me more about how Buck Pierce is better.

I love that these stats are available and I think something like this is definitely interesting and useful, and I think everyone would agree that you're one of the most respected and intelligent posters on this forum (including your time on OB). One suggestion I would have for you is that there are two ways to look at stats: one way is to analyze the stats and draw a conclusion from them, another way is to have a preconceived conclusion and cherry pick stats that help support that conclusion. I would suggest that the former is much more useful than the latter.

 

I think (I think, I don't know, as I haven't looked at the stats myself) that there is more than enough information available to come to the conclusion that Buck has played worse than Goltz. At the very least, it's probably (emphasize probably) a saw-off with both guys being equally horrific. But when you throw in an addendum like this while not mentioning Goltz' 2nd half against the Lions, which may have been statistically the worst two quarters any Bomber QB has played this year, or that Goltz ran up some passing yards in garbage time against the Argos in week 5, it can come across as stat cherry-picking, as opposed to a solid conclusion.

(That being said, Goltz was definitely handcuffed by poor filed position against BC. I wonder how these stats would look if we were able to eliminate any drives that stated inside our own 10 yard line, as offensive starts that deep in your own end could serverely affect the playcalling)

 

Again, I think you're on the right path, and by no means am I arguing that Buck is better, and I really appreciate the work done here. I would be interested in looking at these stats myself if they're readily available. This was just some food for thought.

[sweep the leg]

Not mentioned in this analysis is their appearance. Goltz is too "man pretty", so I give the edge to Buck's manlier handsomeness.

[Onyenegecha]

Not mentioned in this analysis is their appearance. Goltz is too "man pretty", so I give the edge to Buck's manlier handsomeness.

 

But Goltz has a higher "ridiculous touchdown celebration" rating, so it kind of evens out.

[BBlink]

^^^ Awesome username.  Forgot about that guy.

[Mike]

I think (I think, I don't know, as I haven't looked at the stats myself) that there is more than enough information available to come to the conclusion that Buck has played worse than Goltz. At the very least, it's probably (emphasize probably) a saw-off with both guys being equally horrific. But when you throw in an addendum like this while not mentioning Goltz' 2nd half against the Lions, which may have been statistically the worst two quarters any Bomber QB has played this year, or that Goltz ran up some passing yards in garbage time against the Argos in week 5, it can come across as stat cherry-picking, as opposed to a solid conclusion.

(That being said, Goltz was definitely handcuffed by poor filed position against BC. I wonder how these stats would look if we were able to eliminate any drives that stated inside our own 10 yard line, as offensive starts that deep in your own end could serverely affect the playcalling)

 

You can point to garbage time with Goltz against the Argos (or Stamps) but you can also point to the same thing with Pierce against Hamilton.

 

I'd say statistically, the worst half by a Bomber QB all season would be Pierce's second half against Montreal in week 1. Despite scoring 33 points in that game, Pierce's second half reads like this: 3 first downs, 6 two and outs. Sure, he scored a touchdown after a huge Jade Etienne catch-and-run, but other than that and a field goal to start the third quarter, he peeled off drives of 4 yards, 0 yards, 8 yards, 4 yards, 8 yards and 2 yards. Six straight two and outs to end the game. Totally unacceptable.

[robynjt]

Devil's advocate (I would do anything to get rid of Buck)... but you can see the one thing that Pierce supporter's say, Buck can put together long drives once in a blue moon.

[Onyenegecha]

^^^ Awesome username.  Forgot about that guy.

 

I picked it to remind me not to get too excited about new players. I'm overly optimistic at times, and I remember the collective orgasm at OB after he had two pass knockdowns or something relatively insignificant. It was a coin flip between Chijoke and Bloi-Dei.

[Mike]

Devil's advocate (I would do anything to get rid of Buck)... but you can see the one thing that Pierce supporter's say, Buck can put together long drives once in a blue moon.

 

I don't know if I agree with that.

 

General consensus is that a "long drive" is 70+ yards. Buck had 4 of those all year. One of them was a 1 play, 75 yard touchdown run. A second one was a 65 yard catch combined with an 8 yard follow up. One of them was primarily against a prevent defense. His 105 yard drive was phenomenal though. He can hit the big play every now and then, but he's not marching up and down the field regularly.

[Onyenegecha]

You can point to garbage time with Goltz against the Argos (or Stamps) but you can also point to the same thing with Pierce against Hamilton.

 

I'd say statistically, the worst half by a Bomber QB all season would be Pierce's second half against Montreal in week 1. Despite scoring 33 points in that game, Pierce's second half reads like this: 3 first downs, 6 two and outs. Sure, he scored a touchdown after a huge Jade Etienne catch-and-run, but other than that and a field goal to start the third quarter, he peeled off drives of 4 yards, 0 yards, 8 yards, 4 yards, 8 yards and 2 yards. Six straight two and outs to end the game. Totally unacceptable.

 

Absolutely you can. And then we get on the merry-go-round of comparing situationals, which is I think what you were trying to avoid by using the advanced stats. I agree Buck's 2nd half was the worst half played, but the "statistically, outside of these select moments" argument opens things up for more argument than needed. I think there's enough meat on the stat bones that you can make the Goltz > Buck argument an open-and-shut case.

[robynjt]

Just saying that is the one thing that pops up every single time the Buck vs. anyone else discussion comes up.  Usually it's because a receiver makes a good play with decent YAC. 

[kelownabomberfan]

I had enough of Buck after that Hamilton game.  It was there for the taking that game, and Buck just did his deer in headlights routine and couldn't get a drive going to save his life.  The defense had to be on the field the entire second half and just got bagged, so a vet like Hank was able to sense that and move his team in for the score.  Buck couldn't do it.  How he can stand in front of the media and say that he can't understand why he was pulled as number one is just mind boggling.  Is he really that clueless? 

[Atomic]

Goltz has had a pretty poor second half too (yardage is by possession, not just passing):

 

14 yards, 14 yards, -3 yards (2 and out), 3 yards(2 and out), 4 yards(2 and out), 30 yards (27 yard P.I. penalty, field goal), 9 yards (3 and out), -3 yards (got a first down then went 3 and out with a 12 yard loss on a sack).

 

Not saying Pierce should be ahead of Goltz, just that Goltz hasn't really done himself any favours with his own play.

[Mike]

I had enough of Buck after that Hamilton game.  It was there for the taking that game, and Buck just did his deer in headlights routine and couldn't get a drive going to save his life.  The defense had to be on the field the entire second half and just got bagged, so a vet like Hank was able to sense that and move his team in for the score.  Buck couldn't do it.  How he can stand in front of the media and say that he can't understand why he was pulled as number one is just mind boggling.  Is he really that clueless? 

 

8 second half possessions that game for Buck.

 

5 of them resulted in NEGATIVE yardage.

 

Seriously, the drive totals for the second half read like this: -2, -7, 5, -4, 28, -12, 92, -10.

 

It's pretty sad when you can literally say that 102% of your total offense in an entire half came on one drive against a prevent defense.

[Mr. Perfect]

This will be my last comment on this, as there are those in support, and not of support and that's not changing obviously, and this has also been debated ad nauseum by many, myself included. There are stats that favour Buck, there are stats that favour Goltz. In my opinion, the ones that favour Buck are the stronger indicators of the production you are getting from the position. Also, stats don't tell the whole story as game film plays an important role as well, or else why watch the stuff. I feel Buck gives us a better chance than Goltz, as does the entire offensive staff. Goltz wouldn't be #3 if that wasn't the case and for me, that's all that I need personally in this debate.

 

Cheers folks! (for this subject of discussion anyway)

[TrueBlue]

Is this an argument over who's better, or who's worse?

 

I appreciate the stats Mike, but I hope you didn't use up too much of your time for this.

[Mike]

Is this an argument over who's better, or who's worse?

 

I appreciate the stats Mike, but I hope you didn't use up too much of your time for this.

 

Didn't take too long.