Buck vs Goltz (Advanced Statistics)

[17to85]

maybe it's a recency bias but I remember all game in BC people swearing at the TV about receivers missing the ball and the replay showing it thrown way behind them on a crosser or it going into to the dirt when someone was open in the flat. I don't remember to many drops that game. more like a bunch of uncatchable balls.

oh there were definitely flat out drops, including at least 2 on second downs that would have extended drives in late stages of the games. There were some missed throws for sure, but the receivers put some on the turf that were very catchable. Both games Goltz started in fact I felt that the receivers didn't do enough to help a young qb. That doesn't mean they were dropping routine catches, but they never really made any of the highlight type catches that you see every week in the CFL either. 

[17to85]

Continue to flame on, I still support Pierce, clearly I'm in the minority.

 

and do you support Pierce because of what he's shown this year or what he showed in 2011 (first half) and prior? 

[Captain Blue]

But, but, but...BUCK IS BETTER BECAUSE BUCK IS A NICE GUY!!!!

 

--

 

Even when comparing boxcar stats such as completion percentage, for instance, Buck has a less than 3% difference.  Neither really lighting it up with Buck at 60.4% and Goltz at 57.7%.  I would urge everyone to not go off anecdotal evidence - everyone remembers Goltz's passes in the dirt against BC for example - but it's important to consider the work as a whole.  

 

I honestly am not sure how people continue to support Pierce.

[do or die]

Enough of all this angst....

 

Lets get some much needed relief....and just admit that we will never develop a QB of the future......thrown in the towel.....and run with Buck, for another couple of years..

 

After all, we really need to justify all of the time, we have wasted, so far.....

 

 

In related news.....glad I can still consume alcohol on-site.... 

[iso_55]

Friesen says this: 

 

From what I’ve seen, Hall doesn’t look anywhere near ready for this, and I don’t care if he’s started a few games in the NFL.

If he looks confused, inaccurate and unsure of himself in practice, what’s he going to look like at full speed on Friday, even against Hamilton?

 

Bob Irving says this:

 

Bob Irving ‏@BobIrvingCJOB14 Aug

Max hall had a particularly sharp passing segment in practice--can he follow up in the game, that's the 64-dollar question

 

So who is right?

Somewhere in the middle. Hall will make mistakes. Just hope they aren't killers like a Pick 6 or a fumble at a terrible time. I am hoping he plays well if if we win or lose & shows potential of being our qb of the future.

[Milt]

How do you know he's going to get better?  People around here seem to think that all you need to make a good QB is a warm body and a couple years of development time.  Well sometimes guys just don't get any better no matter how much time you give them.

You don't know he's going to get better but there are trends that are pretty predictable in professional sports.

Rookies/inexperienced players tend to improve over time as they adjust to the game and physically mature.

Older players tend to see a decline in performance past a certain age.

No one can see in to the future but those are about the two most solid bets you can make in sports.

Now I'm not sure if that means Goltz will ever amount to starting material but he's already neck and neck with Pierce and both are at ages where you can expect opposite trajectories.

[iso_55]

Agree that just playing Goltz doesn't guarantee he'll get much better. I guess people just want to see him play a string of games to gauge the improvement.

[Jacquie]

By Paul Friesen ,Winnipeg Sun 

It came at the end of a conversation with Buck Pierce, one simple line uttered by the former starting quarterback of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

 

“I know for a fact I’m going to be playing again,” Pierce said.

I didn’t ask how he knew or why he felt that way.

 

I don't doubt Buck will play again but playing and starting aren't the same thing.

[kelownabomberfan]

I don't doubt Buck will play again but playing and starting aren't the same thing.

 

He'll play again, but it will be inside an arena.

[Captain Blue]

I don't doubt Buck will play again but playing and starting aren't the same thing.

 

Rather, playing and playing well aren't the same thing.  I am sure this staff is so in love with Pierce that he will get another shot, but he won't do anything with that opportunity.

[The Unknown Poster]

Who exactly are you arguing with? The stats are just a snapshot in time. Remember when everyone thought Kevin Glenn sucked? Remember when everyone thought Joey was he answer?

If Buck starts next week and is awful, point taken. But if he starts and is good then what?

[Mike]

Who exactly are you arguing with? The stats are just a snapshot in time. Remember when everyone thought Kevin Glenn sucked? Remember when everyone thought Joey was he answer?

If Buck starts next week and is awful, point taken. But if he starts and is good then what?

A snapshot in time? Now I've heard it all.

So what you're telling me is that in your opinion, even though Buck has sucked for two years, my point being made is contingent on his next performance?

Okay then.

[Brandon]

Who exactly are you arguing with? The stats are just a snapshot in time. Remember when everyone thought Kevin Glenn sucked? Remember when everyone thought Joey was he answer?

If Buck starts next week and is awful, point taken. But if he starts and is good then what?

 

When was the last time Buck was playing good and was healthy for 3 straight games?   

 

Glenn people complained and that was because we were spoiled from having Khari before him.....  

 

Buck has been TERRIBLE for the last 2 and half seasons.......  1 good game does not over ride his last 20 crap performances....

[The Unknown Poster]

I'm all for developing a QB. But it's silly to cut your only veteran QB and the only QB on the roster who has ever won until you have even a bonafide number two.

[Blueandgold]

Buck has 25 Touchdown passes in his four years here. Durant is going to clear that by the end of the Banjo Bowl.

[iso_55]

I'm all for developing a QB. But it's silly to cut your only veteran QB and the only QB on the roster who has ever won until you have even a bonafide number two.

Buck should have been cut. Elliott was no screaming hell either. Keeping him or Buck was like a coin flip. Who's better? No one. None of them (including Brink) could have made us long term winners. That just may be Joe Mack's legacy... The fiasco at quarterback.

[17to85]

I'm all for developing a QB. But it's silly to cut your only veteran QB and the only QB on the roster who has ever won until you have even a bonafide number two.

it's equally silly to cut your bonafide #2s but we did that in the offseason too. 

[The Unknown Poster]

Oh come on. Joey and brink had their chance and weren't going to make it.

I wonder where we'd be right now if Kelly hasn't thrown lefors into a horrible offensive system.

[Guest]

and do you support Pierce because of what he's shown this year or what he showed in 2011 (first half) and prior? 

Buck hasn't played well this season, I can't deny that at all, but IMO with exception to the Hamilton game Buck hasn't been as bad as people seem to think, again though it's just my opinion.

[pigseye]

Buck hasn't played well this season, I can't deny that at all, but IMO with exception to the Hamilton game Buck hasn't been as bad as people seem to think, again though it's just my opinion.

 

Yeah nobody seems to bring up the awful max protection offense he endured the first 3 games. The first half of the Argo game was the only shot he's been given outside of it.

[James]

Buck has been as bad as people are saying, people who think he is still good are just delusional. dude cant even run anymore.

[OldSchoolBlue]

If we'd just kept Elliot and started him to this point he'd be well 'over the hump' by now.

 

Instead we keep playing the carousel game and no one is actually progressing (in a positive direction).

 

I say pick a guy and stick with him. I don't even care which guy they pick any more, just tie your can to someone and let's let's go.    

[LeBird]

More statistics to throw at you ...

 

Buck Pierce has been sacked 16 times on 122 dropbacks this year. That means he is getting sacked once every 7.62 dropbacks.

Justin Goltz has been sacked 5 times on 83 dropbacks this year. That means he is getting sacked once every 16.6 dropbacks.

 

Another one ...

 

Buck Pierce running the offense has resulted in 53 first downs on 60 possessions this year. That is an average of .88 first downs per possession.

Justin Goltz running the offense has resulted in 46 first downs on 36 possessions this year. That is an average of 1.27 first downs per possession.

 

Please, tell me more about how Buck is better than Goltz.

 

 

How can that be? Shouldn't 1 be the max?

[Mike]

 

More statistics to throw at you ...

 

Buck Pierce has been sacked 16 times on 122 dropbacks this year. That means he is getting sacked once every 7.62 dropbacks.

Justin Goltz has been sacked 5 times on 83 dropbacks this year. That means he is getting sacked once every 16.6 dropbacks.

 

Another one ...

 

Buck Pierce running the offense has resulted in 53 first downs on 60 possessions this year. That is an average of .88 first downs per possession.

Justin Goltz running the offense has resulted in 46 first downs on 36 possessions this year. That is an average of 1.27 first downs per possession.

 

Please, tell me more about how Buck is better than Goltz.

 

 

How can that be? Shouldn't 1 be the max?

 

 

You can get more than one first down on a drive. Technically, I suppose the most you could get on one drive would be 10.

[The Unknown Poster]

To be fair, Goltz would need to start as many games as Buck to get a true comparison.  Too many variables including injuries, offensive scheme, available players versus injuries etc.

 

I'm not down on Goltz.  I just think Buck deserves a shot at a comeback.  We saw what happened to Calvillo with a bad system.