Pavs and Hutch

[Mr. Perfect]

Allow me to preface my comments by saying in football and hockey, I hate how easy it is, and how often people especially in our city have the #2 quarterback or #2 goalie have those players as the most popular players in town. Granted most popular is a bit of an exaggeration, but I'm sure you all know what I mean. 

 

That being said, at what point, especially in hockey (which is why I'm posting this in the Jets part of the forum) does giving your #2 goaltender more playing time serve the best interests of the team.

 

Pavelec has played in 19 games. His stats are as follows: Save percentage .917, 2.29 goals against average, season record 7-8-2.

 

Hutchinson has played in 7 games. His stats are as follows: Save percentage .947, 1.50 goals against average, season record 4-1-1.

 

Obviously Hutchinson has much better numbers but he has also played in less games which one could argue doesn't provide an adequate sample yet. That being said, at what point does one say, we do have an adequate sample between the two. On top of that, statistically speaking, Pavelec's numbers are actually pretty decent, with the exception of his season record.

 

The reason why I bring this up is because we've had games in the third period that we've been leading or tied and they've resulted in losses under Pavelec. On the road in New Jersey last month, and home games against Detroit, St. Louis, as well as a road game in Nashville just to name a few. Granted he hasn't always had the best goal support, but it seems in the clutch is when we most often lose our games. 

 

So I ask, at what point does one say Hutchinson needs more playing time. It's a notion I hate making because of how easy it is to suggest, but at some point if the current trend continues, it has to be strongly considered does it not?

[Goalie]

Hutch makes the big save. I think its time to give him more starts. Hutch is pretty much an NHL rookie. I like how they have handled him but right now he is hot and pav who was hot earlier is not.

[BomberFan]

Competition is a good thing. However Pavelec is going to have to have a huge bed-crap if he's going to lose his starter position.

[The Unknown Poster]

Definitely agree about the #2 guy being the most popular guy in this town. The love for Montoya was bordering on lunacy last season.  I argued on another forum about that when people were ripping the team for not signing him and pointing to his wonderful stats this year after ONE game...lol  Some goalies are career back ups.  Sometimes they can eventually get a chance to start again and carve out a good career.   Montoya probably isnt the latter.

 

Hutch is a very interesting player.  Lawless was discussing him yesterday and was reading an analysis of Hutch but I didnt catch who it was from.  But basically it was describing him as so-so to good in most categories and made the point that sometimes a back up looks better than he is because its easier to mentally raise your game with less work.  And once you work more, the goalie will come back down to Earth.  But Hutch is only 24.  Was in the ECHL last season.  His rise has been meteoric.

 

To me, he plays bigger and more positionally sound than Pavs.  I think hutch can have an off night and still be okay because he'll be in the right spot to make a save even if he isnt on his game enough to make the spectacular save.  If your team is playing well, the goalie wont have to make too many spectacular saves.  If Pavs is off his game, it's usually reflected by several goals.

 

I've been a defender of Pavs from day one.  I wasnt ready to give up on him in the off-season (partially because we had no replacement and partially because I thought he deserved the opportunity to rebound).  At this point, I think we can say Pavs is a second tier starter who is mostly "good", occasionally great and sometimes awful.  He is streaky and you never know what you're going to get.

 

Hutch has shown he is routinely good.  Smaller sample size.  Aside from that first game, he hasnt played a bad game here.  We need to see him have a couple of bad games and see how he responds. 

 

Personally, I'd start Pavs tonight.  if Pavs is spectacular, I'd start him on Friday.  If he is anywhere from bad to okay, I'd start Hutch.  Pavs is usually better with competition.  I think its worth giving Hutch more work to see if he has starter potential.  If we assume Hellebyuck is pencilled in as the franchise starter moving forward, we need someone between Pavs and him.  Hopefully it's Hutch.

[Mike]

I haven't seen Hutch in a position where he's had to be really strong. He faced 30+ last night but I wouldn't say Columbus had a lot of high quality opportunities. Hutch has great numbers, but they're a bit skewed in my opinion. I just don't see him as a guy who has had to come up huge yet. Won't knock him for it either because it's not fair to insinuate he WON'T come up with the huge saves when he needs to, I just haven't seen a lot of opportunity for him to prove that yet. Then again, you could easily argue Pavelec makes those "big saves" because he's not as sound with his positioning and finds himself in recovery mode more often. I don't know. It's a tricky topic of discussion.

 

I think Hutch is right where he needs to be. For now. We can gradually look to increase his workload as the year goes on, but I'm not interested in creating a controversy. Let's save that for Hellebucyk.

[Mark H.]

There were also games where Pav was outstanding but the Jets still lost. eg. vs. Pittsburgh

[Rich]

Put me in the camp of those who have soured on Pavs.  I’m not calling for Hutch to replace him as the starter, not yet anyway, but I think it is time that Hutch starts getting more starts.  At least 1 game out of every 3 -4.

 

Pavelec was certainly out to a hot start, but he has regressed back to what he is.   His career save percentage is .906 and while he is at a .917 right now, he is .884 in the last 5 games.  Was his earlier play the new Pavelec?  Or was it a blip and he is coming back to his career average now.  He has 5 years as a starter now, I’m not sure he is going to magically change into something else.  We pretty much know what we are going to get with him.

 

Would like to see Hutch start getting more starts to see how he handles an increased work load and tougher opposition. 

[The Unknown Poster]

There were also games where Pav was outstanding but the Jets still lost. eg. vs. Pittsburgh

Yeah but that game was sort of the exception.  Even Blake Wheeler, after the game said it was difficult to consider it a loss.

[The Unknown Poster]

Put me in the camp of those who have soured on Pavs.  I’m not calling for Hutch to replace him as the starter, not yet anyway, but I think it is time that Hutch starts getting more starts.  At least 1 game out of every 3 -4.

 

Pavelec was certainly out to a hot start, but he has regressed back to what he is.   His career save percentage is .906 and while he is at a .917 right now, he is .884 in the last 5 games.  Was his earlier play the new Pavelec?  Or was it a blip and he is coming back to his career average now.  He has 5 years as a starter now, I’m not sure he is going to magically change into something else.  We pretty much know what we are going to get with him.

 

Would like to see Hutch start getting more starts to see how he handles an increased work load and tougher opposition. 

I tend to agree with this.  The only caveat to this is that he has two years left on his contract after this season.  And Im not sure the Jets will be able to unload it.  At $3.9 million it's not "terrible", especially the way contracts are going.  They might be able to get someone going into the playoffs who want an experienced back up, but probably not until that final season.  So there isnt a huge rush since the Jets are unlikely pay two guys starters money.  Hutch has one year left until RFA.  i'd think theyd want to keep him as the clear back up until negotiation time, sign him to a 3-5 year deal at a reasonable "back-up level" cap hit and go from there.

 

Also, Mike, I'd say the Chicago game was an example of Hutch being pretty spectacular.  But even then, his saves were "mostly" solid positional saves.  Last night in the third period he made some big saves but they were, again, mostly being in the right place, playing "large" and having the puck hit him.  But he's pretty good and staying with his man and and not biting on fakes too.

[sweep the leg]

I'd like to see a gradual increase in his workload, not just immediately hand over the job. Keep upping his playing time and see if he can maintain what he's doing now.

 

Start Pavelec tonight and go back to Hutch against Boston.

[mbrg]

I think they already are giving him more playing time than they initially planned.  They will ease him in and see how he reacts to the pressure/opportunity.  He still has single digit starts in his NHL career.  Fast-tracking him is probably not necessary or productive.

 

All of this is a move towards determining what they will do next season and how far along they are in the overall goalie plan.  Hutch as number 1, 1A, 60-40 split time, none of that is going to happen this year unless Pav totally craps the bed.  Major dookie pile.  Which he is so far not doing.

[Jpan85]

Ride the hot hand.

[Rich]

Good game by Pavs yesterday.   He does seem to do better when there is competition to push him.   Be interesting to see who they play against Boston.  Do you play Pavs again after a good performance, or do you play Hutch against the team that drafted him?

 

Having two goalies playing well is a good problem to have.

[The Unknown Poster]

Good game by Pavs yesterday.   He does seem to do better when there is competition to push him.   Be interesting to see who they play against Boston.  Do you play Pavs again after a good performance, or do you play Hutch against the team that drafted him?

 

Having two goalies playing well is a good problem to have.

I like the idea of playing Hutch.  But if Im the coach, smart money is on Pavs.  If all things are equal and this week they were both good, you go with your starter.

[Mr. Perfect]

I'd go to Hutch. I just don't trust Pavelec with the game on the line, should the game against Boston come down to the wire. Boston is a whole new ball game from Buffalo. One thing that was interesting was Maurice's comments after Hutch's last start. He said that we was closing the gap and earning himself more starts. We'll see how things go.

[New_Earth_Mud]

Not a huge Pavs fan... But hes the starter right now so im assuming he gets the call.

 

I would like to see Hutch get like 2 - 3 games in a row to see what he does tho.

[Brandon]

I'm just happy that Hutch is doing his job and Montoya is not being missed by our club...

[The Unknown Poster]

Its Hutch in net tonight against Boston. So here we go.  We either solidify Pavs as the starter or we officially have a goaltending controversy.  Which will it be?

[Rich]

Neither, because Pavelec played quite well last game.

 

If Hutch continues to play well I think he will be rewarded with more playing time, but Pavelec will still be the clear cut starter (at least for now). 

 

If Hutch maintains anything close to his numbers with increased playing time and Pavelec goes up and down with his play, I think Hutch will continue to get increased playing time.   To me, that means the controversy really happens / heats up by February when maybe they are splitting the games.

 

Purely conjecture of course, but I do like to see Hutch pushing Pavelec.

[The Unknown Poster]

Earlier this season it would have been a no-brainer start for Pavs - a big game against a very good team.  So this is a mindset change for the coaching staff and likely a show of condidence in Hutch.  I hope he plays great.  I'd love to know we have a future Starter on our hands with him

[Jimmy Pop]

I think you have to continue to give Hutch more starts if he continues to perform. Ride the hot goalie and reward the guy playing better - and that's Hutch right now.

 

Pavs has played well this year. He's responded well to the critics and by all accounts came into camp in much better shape. Still tho, despite playing better, some of the same old same old from him. #1 goalies on playoff teams put together long stretches of solid play (think Pavs has shown he can do this), but they also limit runs of below avg play. Taking a total guess here...but I suspect Rask, Price, Lundquist etc don't have very many stretches of 3/4/5 games in a row of poor play - Pavs does, and has, repeatedly. Some will point to the team - BOS, MTL and NYR are better teams than us, sure. But take the recent losing streak we had. Pav starts vs MIN, DET & STL. We're playing well, we're on a roll. Then... 3 games. 10 goals against. Pulled in one, coughed up leads in the others. That, for me, just isn't good enough - and unfortunately reminds me all too much of Pavelec of years past.

[Atomic]

Its Hutch in net tonight against Boston. So here we go.  We either solidify Pavs as the starter or we officially have a goaltending controversy.  Which will it be?

 

Funny quote from a Vancouver reporter on H&L yesterday, considering the recent history of the Canucks goaltending.  "You guys don't know what a goaltending controversy is."  Even if Hutch plays well, I think we have a ways to go before it is a controversy. 

[The Unknown Poster]

I think the local media is dying for a controversy.

[Atomic]

I think the local media is dying for a controversy.

 

You better believe they are

[mbrg]

I just don't follow how you get from this:

Its Hutch in net tonight against Boston.

 

to this:

So here we go.  We either solidify Pavs as the starter or we officially have a goaltending controversy.  Which will it be?

 

at all.  How are you connecting these dots?  Why are you connecting these dots?

Hutchinson is getting the start in Boston for the same reason Montoya got a start in Chicago last year - it's a place that has special meaning for him and the hope is that he will elevate his game because of it.  It's a pretty common theory NHL coaches subscribe to when picking a starting goalie, although it doesn't come up very often.  If Martin Brodeur signs with someone and New Jersey is on the schedule, you bet your pretty hiney he's getting the start that game.