Pav is starting to lose, back to Hutch ...

[Rich]

 

Guess the jets should trade for price or rinne. Cuz reality is ain't much available in the goaltender market. Could be better than pav. Easily could be worse. Who should the jets sign then? Cuz helle and comrie are the future so what all star goalie should the jets sign for a year or 2 until the young guys are ready

Some of these suggestions here are ridiculous. In a previous post I suggested that TNSE buyout Pavelec, then sign or trade for a "league average" gosltender for the next couple years until Hellebuyck is ready. Price and Rinne are elite goaltenders. All I'm asking for is league average.

 

 

Why would we buyout Pavelec?  

 

You do know the compliance buyouts from the lockout are over?   And while you can technically still buy a player out, you don't get the benefits of no cap hit.  Teams just never buy players out, and there is a reason for that.

 

If the Jets decide they don't want Pavelec anymore, he will be sent to the minors in the hopes that A) Someone would pick him up off waivers or Want to trade for him down the road when injuries hit.  He only has two years left so it would be the more prudent thing to do.

 

As for signing or trading for a better then "average" goalie, you do realize that by definition half the goalies out there are below average.  So who is going to trade us an "above average" goalie, and what are you prepared to give up to get him?  Especially when you've said yourself you just want a stop gap for a couple of years.

 

As for free agents, here are a few of the higher profile goalie free agents this year, which do you want that you would consider "better then average" Antti Niemi (whose stats this year are close to but a little worse then Pavelec), Viktor Fasth, Josh Harding, Karri Ramo, Devan Dubnyk (Be shocked if Minnesota doesn't sign him before UFA starts),

 

Niemi is probably the most interesting of those names (Dubnyk aside), but the Jets aren't going to be looking to spend a whole lot of money after either buying Pavelec out or paying for his salary in the minors, and they would also be competing with other teams on salary out there.  And I wouldn't say Niemi is a slam dunk of a goalie either,

 

Goalies are such a strange bunch.  Dubnyk was a journeyman goalie after being mired in Edmonton before going to Nashville and Arizona.  He was so highly thought of (definitely would have been considered below "league average" ) that his current contract is for 800k with Arizona before being traded to Minnesota where he had his magical resurgence in front of that Minny D.

 

It is so easy to sit there and say Pavelec is below average and we should trade or sign better.  In practice it is much harder, with goalies more so then any other position.  Proven consistent goalies just aren't traded (unless you are dysfunctional like Vancouver, but they traded away their goalies already).  UFA goalies are going to be hit and miss, you are likely going to be taking a chance on a below average goalie hoping he becomes something better under your team.  Minnesota lucked out with that scenario because of injuries and being forced to having to trade for Dubnyk.

 

Pavelec isn't going anywhere until the Jets know for sure they have something better then him.  Otherwise you are just the Bombers who traded away Kevin Glenn because everyone hated him and were stuck with Lefors at QB.  In reality, where NHL GMs have to do their jobs, it isn't as easy as a snap of the fingers to trade for or sign a proven "better then average goalie" - there is only about 15 of those and most teams aren't trading them, especially when you've admitted yourself you just want one as a stop gap until the younger kids come up.  We aren't going to be giving up a whole lot of assets in that scenario.

[gbill2004]

Guess the jets should trade for price or rinne. Cuz reality is ain't much available in the goaltender market. Could be better than pav. Easily could be worse. Who should the jets sign then? Cuz helle and comrie are the future so what all star goalie should the jets sign for a year or 2 until the young guys are ready

Some of these suggestions here are ridiculous. In a previous post I suggested that TNSE buyout Pavelec, then sign or trade for a "league average" gosltender for the next couple years until Hellebuyck is ready. Price and Rinne are elite goaltenders. All I'm asking for is league average.

Why would we buyout Pavelec?

You do know the compliance buyouts from the lockout are over? And while you can technically still buy a player out, you don't get the benefits of no cap hit. Teams just never buy players out, and there is a reason for that.

If the Jets decide they don't want Pavelec anymore, he will be sent to the minors in the hopes that A) Someone would pick him up off waivers or Want to trade for him down the road when injuries hit. He only has two years left so it would be the more prudent thing to do.

As for signing or trading for a better then "average" goalie, you do realize that by definition half the goalies out there are below average. So who is going to trade us an "above average" goalie, and what are you prepared to give up to get him? Especially when you've said yourself you just want a stop gap for a couple of years.

As for free agents, here are a few of the higher profile goalie free agents this year, which do you want that you would consider "better then average" Antti Niemi (whose stats this year are close to but a little worse then Pavelec), Viktor Fasth, Josh Harding, Karri Ramo, Devan Dubnyk (Be shocked if Minnesota doesn't sign him before UFA starts),

Niemi is probably the most interesting of those names (Dubnyk aside), but the Jets aren't going to be looking to spend a whole lot of money after either buying Pavelec out or paying for his salary in the minors, and they would also be competing with other teams on salary out there. And I wouldn't say Niemi is a slam dunk of a goalie either,

Goalies are such a strange bunch. Dubnyk was a journeyman goalie after being mired in Edmonton before going to Nashville and Arizona. He was so highly thought of (definitely would have been considered below "league average" ) that his current contract is for 800k with Arizona before being traded to Minnesota where he had his magical resurgence in front of that Minny D.

It is so easy to sit there and say Pavelec is below average and we should trade or sign better. In practice it is much harder, with goalies more so then any other position. Proven consistent goalies just aren't traded (unless you are dysfunctional like Vancouver, but they traded away their goalies already). UFA goalies are going to be hit and miss, you are likely going to be taking a chance on a below average goalie hoping he becomes something better under your team. Minnesota lucked out with that scenario because of injuries and being forced to having to trade for Dubnyk.

Pavelec isn't going anywhere until the Jets know for sure they have something better then him. Otherwise you are just the Bombers who traded away Kevin Glenn because everyone hated him and were stuck with Lefors at QB. In reality, where NHL GMs have to do their jobs, it isn't as easy as a snap of the fingers to trade for or sign a proven "better then average goalie" - there is only about 15 of those and most teams aren't trading them, especially when you've admitted yourself you just want one as a stop gap until the younger kids come up. We aren't going to be giving up a whole lot of assets in that scenario.

I fully understand compliance buyouts are over, but there are regular buyouts that come with certain advantages, especially for non cap teams. Here's how they work: http://m.thn.com/blog/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-nhl-buyouts/

And like I said earlier, I'd buyout Pavelec, as the impact on a non-cap team is minimal. But I get it that TNSE won't do it. Guys I would have gone after in past free agency are guys like Hiller or Halak. Several other guys who have been available through FA or trade I would have gone after and would be an upgrade over Pavelec. I'm sure there are others available through trade.

Anyways, I gotta stop visiting this thread as its taking up too much of my time! lol I think I've made my point, and whether you agree or disagree, that's cool as in the end, I think we all want what's best for our Jets!

[Rich]

Yes I am aware of non-compliance buyouts and I told you why it would be a poor decision to use one over sending Pavelec down to the farm (if we were to decide you didn't want him anymore).

 

And again you are living in your fantasy world of signing guys who were available in the past, not who is available in the now.   Or throwing out statements like "I'm sure there is someone we can trade for".  

 

People here aren't overly happy with Pavelec, they just understand the realities of finding a legit upper end starting goalie in the NHL.  You seem to miss that point.

[gbill2004]

Yes I am aware of non-compliance buyouts and I told you why it would be a poor decision to use one over sending Pavelec down to the farm (if we were to decide you didn't want him anymore).

And again you are living in your fantasy world of signing guys who were available in the past, not who is available in the now. Or throwing out statements like "I'm sure there is someone we can trade for".

People here aren't overly happy with Pavelec, they just understand the realities of finding a legit upper end starting goalie in the NHL. You seem to miss that point.

Seems no one reads what I say. I never once asked for an "upper end" goaltender. All I want is league average. Funny how even a moderator will twist around what a poster says on these forums; really waters down the credibility of your argument when you do that.

And no it's not "fantasy world". I'm not Kevin Cheveldayov so I don't know exactly what goaltenders are available out there, but based on the past, there are always goaltenders available for a reasonable price. And yes I'm allowed to talk about goaltenders who were previously available, since I've been making this argument for a couple years now.

Anyways, it's not fantasy, it's a legit option, although one I know TNSE won't do. I'm entitled to my opinion and you are entitled to yours. But please don't twist around the facts of what I said.

[Rich]

I thought you were done with this thread?

 

When there are only 30 starting goaltenders in the league, League average is pretty much upper end.  Funny how when someone can't win an argument they need to pull the "moderator" card like it is an abuse of powers to have an open debate on these forums.   Maybe because we run the site we shouldn't post on it.

 

Replace my post of "legit upper end starting goalie" with "average starting goalie" and it comes out to the same thing.  But you still ignore all the other arguments I've made.   Why do you think no one even drafts goalies in the first round anymore.  They are so hit and miss with different systems, grooming, getting their shot at the right time, etc, that it is the one position that is near impossible to predict, unless you are getting one of the upper echelon proven goalies.

 

Buying out Pavelec until there is a viable replacement that is a clear upgrade is not an option.  Teams with proven goalies aren't going to trade them because then they will be in the exact same position the Jets are in now.    But you don't want to hear that.  You want to just get rid of Pavelec and assume there *must* be a deal to get a better goalie out there.

[gbill2004]

I thought you were done with this thread?

When there are only 30 starting goaltenders in the league, League average is pretty much upper end. Funny how when someone can't win an argument they need to pull the "moderator" card like it is an abuse of powers to have an open debate on these forums. Maybe because we run the site we shouldn't post on it.

Replace my post of "legit upper end starting goalie" with "average starting goalie" and it comes out to the same thing. But you still ignore all the other arguments I've made. Why do you think no one even drafts goalies in the first round anymore. They are so hit and miss with different systems, grooming, getting their shot at the right time, etc, that it is the one position that is near impossible to predict, unless you are getting one of the upper echelon proven goalies.

Buying out Pavelec until there is a viable replacement that is a clear upgrade is not an option. Teams with proven goalies aren't going to trade them because then they will be in the exact same position the Jets are in now. But you don't want to hear that. You want to just get rid of Pavelec and assume there *must* be a deal to get a better goalie out there.

I was done with this thread, but noticed you mis-quoting what I said.

Your way of thinking is keeping Pavelec out of fear that there's nothing better available. I guarantee there's better out there. How can we do worse than the worst starting goalie over the last few years? Can't do any worse. Think about that...can't do any worse than the worst. Bad decisions are made out of fear and that's what lead to Chevy's decision to sign Pavelec to that crippling extension.

Read some of the articles in the links I posted earlier. There are always league average goalies available either through trade or free agency. Chevy has done an excellent job with the Jets, but Pavelec was a major mistake.

Think about it another way. What's the cost/benefit of keeping Pavelec vs buying him out? Buyout costs about $6 million over two years, and minimal cap impact because we're not a cap team. How many home playoff games in revenue is TNSE losing out on (or lost already) by keeping Pavelec? That's extremely difficult to project, but you could argue that buying out Pavelec would pay for itself, and possibly even result in a profit.

[The Unknown Poster]

The jets are not going to spend money on a player that isn't here. The jets have no better options right now. I don't know who might be available in the off season but if they sign a new starter they might be able to ditch Pavs to a team with their own bad contract or a team struggling to meet the floor

But I doubt it. Pavs and Hutch next season. Count on it.

[Goalie]

Pav and Hutch seems likely unless helle is actually ready and they decide to bring him up. Could see pav traded. Edmonton buffalo are 2 teams but unlikely since they probably want helle to spend another year in the ahl. I highly doubt they buy out pav and bring some 1 year stop gap in.

[The Unknown Poster]

Doesn't seem to be the jets style to go with unproven goalies. They won't part with pavs until tjeu are sure they have a replacement. And Helle is awfully young.

[Rich]

 

I thought you were done with this thread?

When there are only 30 starting goaltenders in the league, League average is pretty much upper end. Funny how when someone can't win an argument they need to pull the "moderator" card like it is an abuse of powers to have an open debate on these forums. Maybe because we run the site we shouldn't post on it.

Replace my post of "legit upper end starting goalie" with "average starting goalie" and it comes out to the same thing. But you still ignore all the other arguments I've made. Why do you think no one even drafts goalies in the first round anymore. They are so hit and miss with different systems, grooming, getting their shot at the right time, etc, that it is the one position that is near impossible to predict, unless you are getting one of the upper echelon proven goalies.

Buying out Pavelec until there is a viable replacement that is a clear upgrade is not an option. Teams with proven goalies aren't going to trade them because then they will be in the exact same position the Jets are in now. But you don't want to hear that. You want to just get rid of Pavelec and assume there *must* be a deal to get a better goalie out there.

I was done with this thread, but noticed you mis-quoting what I said.

Your way of thinking is keeping Pavelec out of fear that there's nothing better available. I guarantee there's better out there. How can we do worse than the worst starting goalie over the last few years? Can't do any worse. Think about that...can't do any worse than the worst. Bad decisions are made out of fear and that's what lead to Chevy's decision to sign Pavelec to that crippling extension.

Read some of the articles in the links I posted earlier. There are always league average goalies available either through trade or free agency. Chevy has done an excellent job with the Jets, but Pavelec was a major mistake.

Think about it another way. What's the cost/benefit of keeping Pavelec vs buying him out? Buyout costs about $6 million over two years, and minimal cap impact because we're not a cap team. How many home playoff games in revenue is TNSE losing out on (or lost already) by keeping Pavelec? That's extremely difficult to project, but you could argue that buying out Pavelec would pay for itself, and possibly even result in a profit.

 

 

Saying signing another journeyman / UFA goalie will get the Jets into the playoffs so it makes sense to buy Pavelec out is a huge stretch.

 

Look at Dallas and Colorado.  Playoff teams last year and out of the playoffs this year.  The margin of error and difference between the bottom 4 teams that make the playoffs and the top 4 teams that miss the playoffs in each conference is so small that simply replacing a goalie will not guarantee you make it.  So many other things go into it during the course of a season.  (Yes I know this will be your argument for getting a different goalie).

 

Your darn right my reasons for keeping Pavelec is fear that there is nothing better.  You keep saying how easy it is to go out and get another goalie, and this is one of the biggest issues I have with your arguments.  

 

Free agency is unpredictable.  Are there goalies available?  Yes.   Does it mean the Jets are going to automatically going to get one?  No.  If you haven't noticed, Winnipeg isn't one of the choice off season destinations.  Small market team ... cold climate ... live in a fish bowl .... team has a history of not making the playoffs ... I'm sure we are on top of the short list of all free agents.

 

So the other option is trade for one.  Getting rid of Pavelec BEFORE you go out and make that trade is foolish, because all the other GMs will know you are hooped and will bend you over to trade you a goalie that they don't want (assuming they have 2 starting calibre goalies ... if they only have 1 why the hell would they trade it).

 

If we can upgrade Pavelec, great.   But you don't put yourself in a position of weakness.  You upgrade first.

[Ducky]

If I had to guess, I would say that Pavs and Hutch start the year (barring trades or injuries) but Hellebuyck gets called up around the new year. If Comrie turns into the goalie they think he can, the Jets will have a nice crew of goalies in a few years.

[The Unknown Poster]

As an aside, Comrie was assigned to the Caps

[Goalie]

Comrie will be ahl next season for sure. Makes you wonder if both helle and comrie will be there or if helle Is with the jets

[The Unknown Poster]

Comrie will be ahl next season for sure. Makes you wonder if both helle and comrie will be there or if helle Is with the jets

I dont see any possibility of that happening.  I think they took a chance on Hutch for two reasons: his age gave him a greater degree of maturity as far as maybe his game was what they saw last season and Budaj.  They wont rush Hello.  Comrie is a few years away and I'd say Helle is probably two years away.  In a perfect world, Hutch grabs the number one spot as Pavs contract is expiring and Helle comes up as the back up.  Thats two years.

[SPuDS]

I am really digging what team has done on the back end of our team with our youth movement goaltender wise as wellwell as defensemen-wise.. Our youth movement is going to be scary good within two three seasons

[Mr. Perfect]

I am really digging what team has done on the back end of our team with our youth movement goaltender wise as wellwell as defensemen-wise.. Our youth movement is going to be scary good within two three seasons

We have good, young pieces on the ice now with the big club, and more coming down the pipe which is a great thing of course.

 

The problem Chevy is going to have, and I suppose it's a good one compared to other issues you could have, is trying to get all the young players who deserve to be on the ice, while extending the core players. With the Jets not being a team that spends to the cap, and with there only being so many spots and X amount of young players coming, nevermind a deep upcoming draft where we have two first round picks, we will also likely see some good pieces leave within the next three years. They are tough decisions for sure. You can't keep everybody.

[The Unknown Poster]

I get the impression the Jets will be happy to force the young players to steal someones job.  I dont think they had Lowry pencilled in as a starter this season but his play allowed them to move Perrault up to the 2LW where he has looked at his career best.  I think they will offer contracts to Stafford, Frolik, Stemp and assume Stemp signs and one of Stafford/Frolik.  There might be an opportunity for Ehlers to make the team and he might get a bigger look simply because he cant go to the AHL.  But everyone else, they'd probably be content to let them over-play in the A

[Goalie]

They will have a few openings. What positions remain to be seen. I'd assume ehlers Lowry Perreault could be a combo next season. Stemp is probably destined for the 4th line if he signs. Stafford looks good with scheif and Wheeler. Frolik looks good with Ladd and little. We will see who signs and who doesn't. It's a little early to talk about that really.

[Atomic]

 Guys I would have gone after in past free agency are guys like Hiller or Halak.

 

 

Huge upgrades

 

[Mr. Perfect]

 

 Guys I would have gone after in past free agency are guys like Hiller or Halak.

 

 

Huge upgrades

 

 

LOL!!

[gbill2004]

Guys I would have gone after in past free agency are guys like Hiller or Halak.

Huge upgrades

LOL!!

I'm fully aware of those numbers. Pavelec is a career .907 save %. His recent ~10 game hot streak has brought him up to league average for this season. It's much more accurate to look at a guys career vs an extremely small sample size.

If Pavs can put together a .915 or better save % over 3 seasons, then I'm sold. But there's a reason Maurice benched Pavelec for half the season; he's not very good. But any coach would be stupid not to ride out a goalies hot streak.

[Mr Dee]

Psst, gbill - …………this is for you to have and use.

 

[gbill2004]

Psst, gbill - …………this is for you to have and use.

It surprises me how very few on here get it. A .915 vs .907 save % is an extra goal given up every 3rd game.

So Paul Maurice is wrong and all you guys are right...alrighty then. We will leave it at that.

You're probably right. I should have given up on this argument a long time ago. The guys in here just don't get it. And no logic or statistics will change that.

[IC Khari]

I feel stupid that I started this thread now

[gbill2004]

I feel stupid that I started this thread now

All I have to say is Pavelec's career = .907. League average is .915.

That is all.