Pav is starting to lose, back to Hutch ...

[mbrg]

Wow, this is painful.  So many things in this thread....painful to read.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is how a goalie can be out of position on a breakaway - if he's standing in the corner talking to fans, if he's by the bench getting a drink, if he's gone to the bathroom, or some variation of this theme.

[SPuDS]

So.. That pav guy. What a bum, worstest starter in the league...nay, the world! (Who cares if he's an Olympian as well.)

The guy is streaky, the guy is unorthodox... But he is good. He has the ability to be great when he's on and focused..

Can we at least dial back some of the rhetoric on his game for the time being..

[BomberFan]

 

 

 

Guess the jets should trade for price or rinne. Cuz reality is ain't much available in the goaltender market. Could be better than pav. Easily could be worse. Who should the jets sign then? Cuz helle and comrie are the future so what all star goalie should the jets sign for a year or 2 until the young guys are ready

Some of these suggestions here are ridiculous. In a previous post I suggested that TNSE buyout Pavelec, then sign or trade for a "league average" gosltender for the next couple years until Hellebuyck is ready. Price and Rinne are elite goaltenders. All I'm asking for is league average.

Why would we buyout Pavelec?

You do know the compliance buyouts from the lockout are over? And while you can technically still buy a player out, you don't get the benefits of no cap hit. Teams just never buy players out, and there is a reason for that.

If the Jets decide they don't want Pavelec anymore, he will be sent to the minors in the hopes that A) Someone would pick him up off waivers or Want to trade for him down the road when injuries hit. He only has two years left so it would be the more prudent thing to do.

As for signing or trading for a better then "average" goalie, you do realize that by definition half the goalies out there are below average. So who is going to trade us an "above average" goalie, and what are you prepared to give up to get him? Especially when you've said yourself you just want a stop gap for a couple of years.

As for free agents, here are a few of the higher profile goalie free agents this year, which do you want that you would consider "better then average" Antti Niemi (whose stats this year are close to but a little worse then Pavelec), Viktor Fasth, Josh Harding, Karri Ramo, Devan Dubnyk (Be shocked if Minnesota doesn't sign him before UFA starts),

Niemi is probably the most interesting of those names (Dubnyk aside), but the Jets aren't going to be looking to spend a whole lot of money after either buying Pavelec out or paying for his salary in the minors, and they would also be competing with other teams on salary out there. And I wouldn't say Niemi is a slam dunk of a goalie either,

Goalies are such a strange bunch. Dubnyk was a journeyman goalie after being mired in Edmonton before going to Nashville and Arizona. He was so highly thought of (definitely would have been considered below "league average" ) that his current contract is for 800k with Arizona before being traded to Minnesota where he had his magical resurgence in front of that Minny D.

It is so easy to sit there and say Pavelec is below average and we should trade or sign better. In practice it is much harder, with goalies more so then any other position. Proven consistent goalies just aren't traded (unless you are dysfunctional like Vancouver, but they traded away their goalies already). UFA goalies are going to be hit and miss, you are likely going to be taking a chance on a below average goalie hoping he becomes something better under your team. Minnesota lucked out with that scenario because of injuries and being forced to having to trade for Dubnyk.

Pavelec isn't going anywhere until the Jets know for sure they have something better then him. Otherwise you are just the Bombers who traded away Kevin Glenn because everyone hated him and were stuck with Lefors at QB. In reality, where NHL GMs have to do their jobs, it isn't as easy as a snap of the fingers to trade for or sign a proven "better then average goalie" - there is only about 15 of those and most teams aren't trading them, especially when you've admitted yourself you just want one as a stop gap until the younger kids come up. We aren't going to be giving up a whole lot of assets in that scenario.

I fully understand compliance buyouts are over, but there are regular buyouts that come with certain advantages, especially for non cap teams. Here's how they work: http://m.thn.com/blog/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-nhl-buyouts/

And like I said earlier, I'd buyout Pavelec, as the impact on a non-cap team is minimal. But I get it that TNSE won't do it. Guys I would have gone after in past free agency are guys like Hiller or Halak. Several other guys who have been available through FA or trade I would have gone after and would be an upgrade over Pavelec. I'm sure there are others available through trade.

Anyways, I gotta stop visiting this thread as its taking up too much of my time! lol I think I've made my point, and whether you agree or disagree, that's cool as in the end, I think we all want what's best for our Jets!

 

Pavs has a no move contract, you may want to factor that into your hatred for him.

[BomberFan]

 

Pavelec is like 7-2-1 in his last 10 or something like that. The past is just that. The past. He's been good recently tho and if people can't admit that, what can you say really.

There's no doubt Pavelec has been on a hot streak recently. I acknowledged that. But he's now cooling off as he always does, leveling back to his usual below average self. If you're happy with below average, you're entitled to your opinion, but we as Jets fans should demand better than sub-par from our starting goaltender.

 

Why not change your username to IHatePavs and we could dispense with your incessant moaning?

[The Unknown Poster]

Gbill could be proven right in the end.

[gbill2004]

Guess the jets should trade for price or rinne. Cuz reality is ain't much available in the goaltender market. Could be better than pav. Easily could be worse. Who should the jets sign then? Cuz helle and comrie are the future so what all star goalie should the jets sign for a year or 2 until the young guys are ready

Some of these suggestions here are ridiculous. In a previous post I suggested that TNSE buyout Pavelec, then sign or trade for a "league average" gosltender for the next couple years until Hellebuyck is ready. Price and Rinne are elite goaltenders. All I'm asking for is league average.

Why would we buyout Pavelec?

You do know the compliance buyouts from the lockout are over? And while you can technically still buy a player out, you don't get the benefits of no cap hit. Teams just never buy players out, and there is a reason for that.

If the Jets decide they don't want Pavelec anymore, he will be sent to the minors in the hopes that A) Someone would pick him up off waivers or Want to trade for him down the road when injuries hit. He only has two years left so it would be the more prudent thing to do.

As for signing or trading for a better then "average" goalie, you do realize that by definition half the goalies out there are below average. So who is going to trade us an "above average" goalie, and what are you prepared to give up to get him? Especially when you've said yourself you just want a stop gap for a couple of years.

As for free agents, here are a few of the higher profile goalie free agents this year, which do you want that you would consider "better then average" Antti Niemi (whose stats this year are close to but a little worse then Pavelec), Viktor Fasth, Josh Harding, Karri Ramo, Devan Dubnyk (Be shocked if Minnesota doesn't sign him before UFA starts),

Niemi is probably the most interesting of those names (Dubnyk aside), but the Jets aren't going to be looking to spend a whole lot of money after either buying Pavelec out or paying for his salary in the minors, and they would also be competing with other teams on salary out there. And I wouldn't say Niemi is a slam dunk of a goalie either,

Goalies are such a strange bunch. Dubnyk was a journeyman goalie after being mired in Edmonton before going to Nashville and Arizona. He was so highly thought of (definitely would have been considered below "league average" ) that his current contract is for 800k with Arizona before being traded to Minnesota where he had his magical resurgence in front of that Minny D.

It is so easy to sit there and say Pavelec is below average and we should trade or sign better. In practice it is much harder, with goalies more so then any other position. Proven consistent goalies just aren't traded (unless you are dysfunctional like Vancouver, but they traded away their goalies already). UFA goalies are going to be hit and miss, you are likely going to be taking a chance on a below average goalie hoping he becomes something better under your team. Minnesota lucked out with that scenario because of injuries and being forced to having to trade for Dubnyk.

Pavelec isn't going anywhere until the Jets know for sure they have something better then him. Otherwise you are just the Bombers who traded away Kevin Glenn because everyone hated him and were stuck with Lefors at QB. In reality, where NHL GMs have to do their jobs, it isn't as easy as a snap of the fingers to trade for or sign a proven "better then average goalie" - there is only about 15 of those and most teams aren't trading them, especially when you've admitted yourself you just want one as a stop gap until the younger kids come up. We aren't going to be giving up a whole lot of assets in that scenario.

I fully understand compliance buyouts are over, but there are regular buyouts that come with certain advantages, especially for non cap teams. Here's how they work: http://m.thn.com/blog/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-nhl-buyouts/

And like I said earlier, I'd buyout Pavelec, as the impact on a non-cap team is minimal. But I get it that TNSE won't do it. Guys I would have gone after in past free agency are guys like Hiller or Halak. Several other guys who have been available through FA or trade I would have gone after and would be an upgrade over Pavelec. I'm sure there are others available through trade.

Anyways, I gotta stop visiting this thread as its taking up too much of my time! lol I think I've made my point, and whether you agree or disagree, that's cool as in the end, I think we all want what's best for our Jets!

Pavs has a no move contract, you may want to factor that into your hatred for him.

He does not have a no movement clause in his contract.

[gbill2004]

Gbill could be proven right in the end.

I'd love to be proven wrong and the Jets ride Pavelec to the next 3 Stanley Cups!!

[Mr. Perfect]

 

Gbill could be proven right in the end.

I'd love to be proven wrong and the Jets ride Pavelec to the next 3 Stanley Cups!!

 

That's all it will take hey? Haha comical.

[gbill2004]

No I was giving an extreme example trying to demonstrate I'd love to be proven very, very, very wrong. I'd love to see Pavelec become a huge success. Sort of over the top, while being a little humerous. Guess you didn't get it. It's comical how you interpret some statements.

[BomberFan]

"He does not have a no movement clause in his contract. "

 

My mistake, confused him with Enstrom.

[The Unknown Poster]

5 or 6 games does not a career make.

 

Despite the assertions of Darren Ford, many people, myself included, have wanted Pavs to rise to the occasion.  He's been one of my favourite players since the team was bought.

 

And up until this season I had my Pavs blinders on.  But once you get several years of data, you can start making decisions about a player's skill level.  As spectacular as we've seen Pavs play, the face his career Save Percentage is .917 tells you all you need to know - that even with some of his spectacular runs, he's had some awful runs too.  That's how you get an average.

 

But he's a Jet and he's playing his ass off and we can all hope he plays this way for the next two years straight.  History has shown that will not happen.  But what Pavs does in the present is whats important right now.

 

There seems to be a lot of people in love with a guy they wanted bought out last year...

[Goalie]

There seems to be more people who for some reason can't admit that the guy has actually been playing pretty well the last 10-15 games. People can harp on past numbers all they want but.. those past numbers have nothing to do with the fact that he's played very well recently and is pretty much the reason the Jets can clinch tonight. 

[Rich]

I think people are just waiting for the bottom to fallout with Pavs (which historically has always happened).   The guy has two shutouts in a row.  Nothing to complain about that, but I don't think many people consider him to be the long term answer in net.

 

But we can enjoy this ride for as long as it lasts.

[Goalie]

No he's not the long term answer but he's played well recently and right now, regardless, he's the best we got. 

[Mr. Perfect]

 

There seems to be a lot of people in love with a guy they wanted bought out last year...

Personally I think it's just giving credit where it's due. He's playing extremely well right now. He deserves to be praised.

[Noeller]

 

 

There seems to be a lot of people in love with a guy they wanted bought out last year...

Personally I think it's just giving credit where it's due. He's playing extremely well right now. He deserves to be praised.

 

^^ This is all that really needs to be said. He's playing well right now, and that's awesome. 

[Goalie]

Good post from a guy on hfboards.. worth a read actually. 

 

Nevermind, found it. Here is the number I personally care about, given, like I said, the absolute tire fire this team was under Noel, and dating back to Atlanta.

Since Maurice began coaching this team, Pavelec has faced a grand total of 1939 shots, saving 1774 of them and accumulating a SV% of .915. 

That, for me, is a better indication of what Pavelec may be to this team under the most important circumstances. Not Atlanta days, not Noel days, not 3000 shots dating back to April of 2013 (two years ago), not 3000 shots dating back to November 2011, but what we have endured and experienced under Paul Maurice. To me, that is the most prevailing of facts here. Having a competent head coach, structure and team Pavelec has EVER played behind, and that goes for a lot of these players. And what are we seeing? we're seeing some success. So I do not give a rats behind essentially what Pavelec did in Atlanta, under Noel, etc. Put a player in an incompetent and inefficient situation and you just might get incompetent and inefficient results. Put a bunch of players in a competent and efficient situation, and you just might collectively get competent and efficient results. As a group and team, right from Maurice down to the players we are seeing a net positive.

In short, I do not believe Pavelec is a "new" goalie. I do not believe he has totally "reinvented" himself. I do believe he has perhaps worked and altered some techniques. I do believe playing within a structured team that Maurice has incorporated has a played a role. If each of these players buys in and brings some level of positive ingredient to the ice, and it works with this system and such, that is all I can ask and want and hope we endure success. So far, since the day Maurice was hired, we've seen that collectively from this team. 

Heck, all the majority wanted out of Pavelec was a .915 SV%. He is and has done that under Paul Maurice. Don't feed me old rubbish statistics that to me, are misleading because of the ineptitude that was displayed in Atlanta AND in Winnipeg prior to Paul becoming head coach and essentially saving this team from more losses, frustration, blowing things up, etc. It was a write off before and not a true telling tale, in my own opinion. There is a reason this team is where it is today. There is a reason under Paul Maurice this team has gone 115 GP: 60 - 38 - 17. There is a reason the underlying numbers of this team are good. And there is a reason prior to Paul Maurice all of these things were non-existent.

[Goalie]

Interesting stat again...Did you know the Jets are more likely to win without all-star Dustin Byfuglien in the lineup? Since the start of 2013-2014, The jets are 12-4-0 without Buff in the lineup. Things that make you go hmm. 

[The Unknown Poster]

There seems to be more people who for some reason can't admit that the guy has actually been playing pretty well the last 10-15 games. People can harp on past numbers all they want but.. those past numbers have nothing to do with the fact that he's played very well recently and is pretty much the reason the Jets can clinch tonight. 

I havent seen anyone say Pavs has not played great lately.  But past numbers are not "harping".  This isnt a rookie goalie where you're using 3 months of numbers.  His career average over many years is .917.  He's been playing .940 lately I believe.  So what is he, a 940 goalie or a 917 goalie?  The really big data says he's a 917.  The really small data says 940. 

 

Now we've seen flashes in the pan that have come in and played amazing for a playoff run.  We've seen goalies go from bad to good and remain consistently good.  if this was a court of law no jury would be able to find Pavs above average based on the evidence. 

 

If Pavs stays a 940 goalie for the rest of his career, great!!  if he stays a 940 goalie just through four rounds of the playoffs, Im thrilled.

 

But Pavs has NEVER maintained this level of play in his career.

[The Unknown Poster]

Do we really want a 915 goalie?

[Jpan85]

A lot of good goalies in the league around that .915 to .920.

[Floyd]

Best teams have a .920 goalie, 915 is getting low

[Mr. Perfect]

A lot of good goalies in the league around that .915 to .920.

Fleury, Luongo, Bobrovsky, Quick just to name a few. Not saying he's that calibre of goalie but there definitely is good goalies in that range.

[Ducky]

Interesting stat again...Did you know the Jets are more likely to win without all-star Dustin Byfuglien in the lineup? Since the start of 2013-2014, The jets are 12-4-0 without Buff in the lineup. Things that make you go hmm. 

Wow, you're too funny. First you make a big post about how we should only grade Pavs by his "Maurice" days and then you make a post about Buff which includes pre-Maurice days.

 

You know what they say about stats...

[Goalie]

You do realize that 95 percent of those games have been this year tho right. You do realize all those games buff had missed was when Maurice was coach right? You do realize he took over last season right? That's the 2013 2014 season.