Jets vs Ducks Analysis

[The Unknown Poster]

From Peter Tessier:

 

There’s going to be a lot of noise about the first round opponents the Jets will face starting on Thursday, that being the Anaheim Ducks. But what about the Jets? One can site all the reasons the Jets made the post season, the work of Paul Maurice, the timely trades and signings of Kevin Cheveldayoff, the play of various individual players, and so on and so on. The basic premise as to why the Jets will face the Ducks is this: they are a vastly improved team in many areas.

To improve this much is part and parcel to all the moves that were made, Maurice was not going to do it alone not was Chevy going to be able to sign, draft, develop, and trade for the right mixture as well. However, the one thing that stands out above all other things with certainty is this- the Jets received league average or better goaltending for the majority of the season. Without this critical change no one in Winnipeg or around the league would be arguing about the origins, entitlement or protocol to a ‘whiteout’.

The task for the Jets begins and ends with defeating the Ducks and it’s probably worth noting some key differences and similarities between the two teams.



Goals and Shots

The Ducks boast some of the biggest names and salaries in the league to help them score goals, Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler being the top three but then there’s a drop. In fact it’s a pretty big drop.

After the big three the Ducks have one skater with 20 plus goals and only 7 with 10 or more goals. The Ducks only scored 6 more goals than the Jets, 236 compared to 230. At even strength, 5 vs 5, it gets a bit better with 157 vs 143 but this is not a massive leap.

On the PP the Ducks scored only 36 goals compared to Winnipeg’s 48.

The Jets had a +20 goal differential and the Ducks +10

So with only 6 goals total difference how did the Ducks manage to win the top spot in the West and the Jets the 8th?

The Ducks won 51 games for 102 points while the Jets managed 43 for 86 points and then it splits to 43 vs 36 for ROW (regulation or OT losses). Maybe that’s just luck at the right times and gives partial explanation to the separation.

(all stats derived from all score situations compared to even strength from War on Ice)

When looking at scoring rates the Ducks are equal to the Jets, 2.7 G/60 vs 2.7 G/60
At even strength: 2.4 G/60 vs 2.3 G/60

When looking at shooting rates the Ducks are ahead of the Jets, 29.5 S/60 vs 29.2/60
At even strength: 28.8 S/60 vs 28.7 S/60

When looking at Shot Differential the Ducks are ahead of the Jets, 91 vs 89
At even strength: 127 vs 58

When looking at On Ice Shooting % the Ducks are ahead of the Jets, 9.3% vs 9.1%
At even strength: 8.3% vs 7.8%

Luck

There is no smoking gun here that lays claim to either team having an advantage therefore looking at the luck variables may make things a bit clearer. The first one to look at is PDO, a stat that measures the team’s shooting percentage combined with the save percentage. The premise of this is when added together it should be close to 100 as based on historical league averages.

The Ducks had a season PDO of 99.9% vs the Jets at 100.5% in all situations, at even strength it breaks down to: Ducks- 100.2 vs Jets- 100.7. There is just not much spread here either and once again it would be fair to say the 10 point spread is simply some luck and opportunity going one way or the other for each team.


If you look at the season in halves, start to December 31st the Jets had a PDO in all situations of 100 vs the Ducks at 99.7. At even strength it’s reversed Jets at 99.7 vs Ducks at 100.

For the second half of Jan 1 to April 14th in all situations the Jets had a PDO of 100.9 vs the Ducks at 100.2 At even strength: Jets 101.5 vs 100.4

Once again there is no discernible advantage other than the Jets in the second half of this season at even strength but still, not much difference and did the recent hot streak help?

Possession

This is the metric that all teams want to be strong at, even the Kings. Using them (the Kings) as an example is interesting as in 2012 they were an 8th seeded team that caught lightning in a bottle at the right time and road it through to a championship. Some would suggest the Jets could be the Kings in 2015; a good possession team with a sub-par starting goalie.

Without the explanation here is a quicker comparison of CORSI and Fenwick

Corsi Jets at even strength: 52.5 for season 51.6 first half 53.3 second half

Corsi Ducks at even strength: 51.2 for season 50.8 first half 51.6 second half

Corsi Jets at all situations: 51.8 season 52.0 first half 51.6 second half

Corsi Ducks at all situations: 51.1 season 50.9 first half 51.3 second half

Fenwick Jets at even strength: 52.0 season 50.9 first half 52.9 for second half

Fenwick Ducks at even strength: 51.7 season 51.5 first half 51.9 second half

Fenwick Jets at all situations: 51.2 season 51.3 first half 51.1 second half

Fenwick Ducks at all situations: 51.6 season 51.7 first half 51.5 second half


This is another wash with a few differences but more evidence that the teams are much more similar than they are different. The Jets, for the course of the season, seem to edge higher on possession and that would suggest they are doing more to guide shots at the net than the Ducks are, but not by much.

Scoring Chances

Ultimately possession needs to lead to scoring chances and those chances need to lead to goals. Fortunately we can look at scoring chance data now and see who is making things happen due to their efforts of possession. For this metric we will use season data for comparison.

Scoring Chance For % in all situations: Jets at 52.2 vs Ducks at 51.6
Scoring Chance Differential in all situations: Jets +145 vs Ducks +182
Scoring Chances per 60 Mins in all situations: Jets at 28.1/60 vs Ducks at 26.5/60

Scoring Chance For % at even strength: Jets at 52.2 vs Ducks at 52.3
Scoring Chance Differential at even strength: Jets +150 vs Ducks +145
Scoring Chances per 60 Mins at even strength: Jets at 27.0/60 vs Ducks at 25.6/60

Is there much here to give either team an edge? Once again these teams seem equally competent in creating opportunity, and with the goals scored noted above they seem equally competent at conversion too.

Goaltending

The real battle lines may be drawn with goaltending and that is where these teams may still have similarities.

Ondrej Pavelec

Even strength: .930 save% .937 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.28

All Situations: .920 save % .929 Adjusted save % SA/60 28.63

Frederik Andersen

Even Strength: .920 save % .926 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.03

All Situations: .914 save % .919 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.75

Michael Hutchinson

Even Strength: .925 save % .929 Adjusted save % SA/60 26.23

All Situations: .913 save % .920 Adjusted save % SA/60 27.68

John Gibson

Even Strength: .924 save % .922 Adjusted save % SA/60 29.81

All Situations: .913 save % .917 Adjusted save % SA/60 30.2


See anything? The real telltale is the Jets goaltending is better and most interesting is over the course of the season the Jets allowed less shots in front of Hutch than Pavelec while there is mark jump between Andersen and Gibson. It goes up by 3 shots per game when the Ducks have Gibson in net.

There’s not much to learn from this other than neither team has had elite level goaltending year battled to win the conference and scrap into top eight respectively. It’s not going to be easy but one has to wonder if you take the fan hat off, do Jets fans feel they have an advantage when looking at these stats?

These again are the statistics most them can be used as predictive should the viewer so desire but they are not conclusive. Neither team has any meaningful advantage in these baseline metrics of the new generation. If this series is to come down to uncontrolled variables, luck and intangibles the stats probably support that line of thinking. That’s also a different topic and where part two of the series preview will come in to play.

Thanks for reading- part two coming soon.

[BomberBall]

 

So, I'm taking from that... We're pretty even? 

[The Unknown Poster]

The money has been pouring in on the Jets.  They might end up favoured by game time lol

 

Maurice doing his best to embrace the underdog role. 

[Noeller]

Not sure who Peter Tessier is, but he lost me when he said "...You can site..." instead of "...You can cite..."

[The Unknown Poster]

should have linked.

he's the Jets blogger for hockeybuzz.  He often has some stats that Im too lazy to look up myself, so there's that.

[The Unknown Poster]

Here's how the Ducks' blogger sees it:

 

Western Conference Quarter Finals – 6 games

As mentioned earlier, the Jets play physical hockey and they have some big bodies on the roster. Don't be surprised, barring injury, to see Tim Jackman and Clayton Stoner play every game. If it gets particularly rough, Chris Wagner may play at the expense of someone like Jiri Sekac.

Winnipeg had an amazing run of goaltending the final week of the season, yielding one goal over four games. I do believe that Ondrej Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson are good enough goalies to steal a game or maybe two from the Ducks, neither of them is capable of pulling out the series. Frederik Andersen, on the other hand, can be that good. Ll in all the Ducks are too talented to drop this series.

 

I should point out that all he wrote is two paragraphs because his analysis concerns the Ducks entire playoff run...to the Cup.  getting a little ahead of himself  maybe

[Noeller]

Here's how the Ducks' blogger sees it:

 

Western Conference Quarter Finals – 6 games

As mentioned earlier, the Jets play physical hockey and they have some big bodies on the roster. Don't be surprised, barring injury, to see Tim Jackman and Clayton Stoner play every game. If it gets particularly rough, Chris Wagner may play at the expense of someone like Jiri Sekac.

Winnipeg had an amazing run of goaltending the final week of the season, yielding one goal over four games. I do believe that Ondrej Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson are good enough goalies to steal a game or maybe two from the Ducks, neither of them is capable of pulling out the series. Frederik Andersen, on the other hand, can be that good. Ll in all the Ducks are too talented to drop this series.

 

I should point out that all he wrote is two paragraphs because his analysis concerns the Ducks entire playoff run...to the Cup.  getting a little ahead of himself  maybe

That's a very fair and realistic write-up on the first round series. It'll likely go 6 or 7, but I still see the Ducks as just being too talented, top to bottom. Be a hell of a lotta fun to watch, though...

[Ducky]

The Jets needto win one in the first two games if they stand a chance of winning this series. Win one and it goes 7, win both and we take them in 6.

[The Unknown Poster]

What happens if the Jets go up 3-1 in the series?  I bet there will be a definitive line between fans that remember 1.0 and fans that dont.

[johnzo]

I think that the complete inability to close out 3-1 series migrated with Jets 1.0 to Phoenix -- the Coyotes also blew a couple of 3-1 series leads in the 90s, if memory serves.

But man if we are up 3-1 in the series and lose Game 5, I am gonna need some thorazine because those Edmonton and Vancouver series back in the 90s just about killed me.

[Goalie]

The Ducks aren't as deep as people like to think, like the article or blog said, outside of kesler,getzlaf and perry, they don't have much scoring. Perry can easily be knocked off his game, Kesler too, The Jets have a deeper roster, scoring throughout really, they might not have a bunch of 30 goal scorers but they have a few 20 goal scorers and lots of guys who scored 10 or more. 

 

Jets do need to win 1 in Anaheim, preferably game 1 actually. If they do, I think they take it in 6.

 

There isn't much difference between the 1st seeded ducks who played in a division where they got to play edmonton and arizona a bunch of times and the 8th seeded jets who at 99 points could easily have been well over 100 with some luck or some late game gaffs, that goal pav let in vs st louis, that late goal they let in vs san jose, thats 2 more points right there, Should have beaten Colorado too, This series is closer than some people want to admit, I can see why the Jets are being picked to win by lots of people... 

 

It's all about history, ducks choke in the playoffs, you take out one of perry or getzlaf and that team doesn't really have the depth, they have 3 high priced scorers, you remove 1 and they aren't that big of a threat... Bruce Boudreau is known to choke in the playoffs too. 

 

I dunno, i just don't see how any team in the west could be considered a favorite or under dog, they are all really good teams, all of them, Jets played in the ultra competitive central division, all teams finished with 90 points or more.. Ducks played in a division that had 2 of the worst 5 teams in the league..

 

Jets easily could win this series, easily. Ducks could too tho.

 

The fun part about playoffs, what you did in the regular season doesn't matter anymore, it's a new season really. First team to win 16 games wins it all...

 

Jets played meaningful games down the stretch, ducks did not, ducks have actually played like garbage the last month or so, that matters a bit.. i realize i just said what you did in the regular season is irrelevant now but.. you do want to be playing your best at this time of the year and reality is, the jets have been and the ducks haven't. 

[New_Earth_Mud]

Just my opinion but i think a difference will be we have 4 lines putting points up.

 

Also like the idea have one of Myers, Buff, Trouba on the ice at pretty much all times. This might frustrate Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler.

 

Getzlaf is a hard player to get off his game. They key will be to take out the players around him.

 

Ducks are a a really good team.... But if we can do our thing... play relentless banging not only once but again the night after then have to come here and its a freaking mad house .. I wonder if it all wears the Ducks out.

[HardCoreBlue]

Just my opinion but i think a difference will be we have 4 lines putting points up.

 

Also like the idea have one of Myers, Buff, Trouba on the ice at pretty much all times. This might frustrate Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler.

 

Getzlaf is a hard player to get off his game. They key will be to take out the players around him.

 

Ducks are a a really good team.... But if we can do our thing... play relentless banging not only once but again the night after then have to come here and its a freaking mad house .. I wonder if it all wears the Ducks out.

To neutralize, like we did with Ovechkin, match Meyers on Getzlaf.

[Goalie]

The way to take both perry and Getzlaf out is simple. Hit them hard and often. Hit the ducks D men every chance you get especially lindholm as he is normally the guy feeding passes to these guys

[Ducky]

I hope Ladd's line plays against Kessler's...