Election 2015

[Rich]

 

 

With advance polling starting Friday and only 10 days left until Election Day, the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals continue to trend marginally higher than the Conservatives.

Respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? Support for the major parties stands at:

34.0 per cent for the Liberals

31.0 per cent for the Conservatives

25.0 per cent for the NDP

and 4.2 per cent for the Greens nationally.

 

Just wondering, do these polls reach people through social media or are they conducted as in the past, strictly by phone?

 

• Ballot tracking reflects only the first choice given by decided voters

• A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,077 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

• The margin of error for weekly surveys before Sept. 4 is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

 

 

This is way off topic, but if there are any statisticians out there, can you tell me why they phrase things like this.  Is the margin of error +/- 3 or not .... if this happens to be the 20th time, what is the margin of error?  Or is it completely unknown?   19/20 is 95% so why not just build that other 5% of uncertainty into the +/- 3.

 

It all seems a little hodge-podge.

[Fatty Liver]

 

 

 

With advance polling starting Friday and only 10 days left until Election Day, the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals continue to trend marginally higher than the Conservatives.

Respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? Support for the major parties stands at:

34.0 per cent for the Liberals

31.0 per cent for the Conservatives

25.0 per cent for the NDP

and 4.2 per cent for the Greens nationally.

 

Just wondering, do these polls reach people through social media or are they conducted as in the past, strictly by phone?

 

• Ballot tracking reflects only the first choice given by decided voters

• A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,077 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

• The margin of error for weekly surveys before Sept. 4 is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

 

 

This is way off topic, but if there are any statisticians out there, can you tell me why they phrase things like this.  Is the margin of error +/- 3 or not .... if this happens to be the 20th time, what is the margin of error?  Or is it completely unknown?   19/20 is 95% so why not just build that other 5% of uncertainty into the +/- 3.

 

It all seems a little hodge-podge.

 

 

It helps to cover their asses when they get it wrong.

[17to85]

 

 

 

 

With advance polling starting Friday and only 10 days left until Election Day, the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals continue to trend marginally higher than the Conservatives.

Respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? Support for the major parties stands at:

34.0 per cent for the Liberals

31.0 per cent for the Conservatives

25.0 per cent for the NDP

and 4.2 per cent for the Greens nationally.

 

Just wondering, do these polls reach people through social media or are they conducted as in the past, strictly by phone?

 

• Ballot tracking reflects only the first choice given by decided voters

• A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,077 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

• The margin of error for weekly surveys before Sept. 4 is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

 

 

This is way off topic, but if there are any statisticians out there, can you tell me why they phrase things like this.  Is the margin of error +/- 3 or not .... if this happens to be the 20th time, what is the margin of error?  Or is it completely unknown?   19/20 is 95% so why not just build that other 5% of uncertainty into the +/- 3.

 

It all seems a little hodge-podge.

 

 

It helps to cover their asses when they get it wrong.

 

That's what I was going to say, it's sort of just like 60% of the time it works every time. Just a way to say usually it's within the 3 points but that one time you might get something totally screwy. 

[kelownabomberfan]

 

Every time Mulcair speaks he just sounds so forced, contrived almost like even he doesn't believe what he's saying. Goodbye to him and good riddance to the Manitoba NDP's.  

 

Honestly, I think trying to portray Mulcair as warm and fuzzy was a mistake by the NDP strategists.  I much prefer the straight-shooter that we saw in QP these past few years.  He's at his best when he's talking down to Harper and he only exposed that side briefly during the second debate.  Nothing against him personally but when Mulcair smiles it kind of gives me the creeps.

 

 

Yeah exactly.  When Mulcair tries to fake a "nice guy" persona and gives that creepy smile all I can think is that he has a van somewhere with "Free Candy" written on the side.

[Mark H.]

 

 

 

 

 

With advance polling starting Friday and only 10 days left until Election Day, the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals continue to trend marginally higher than the Conservatives.

Respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? Support for the major parties stands at:

34.0 per cent for the Liberals

31.0 per cent for the Conservatives

25.0 per cent for the NDP

and 4.2 per cent for the Greens nationally.

 

Just wondering, do these polls reach people through social media or are they conducted as in the past, strictly by phone?

 

• Ballot tracking reflects only the first choice given by decided voters

• A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,077 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

• The margin of error for weekly surveys before Sept. 4 is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

 

 

This is way off topic, but if there are any statisticians out there, can you tell me why they phrase things like this.  Is the margin of error +/- 3 or not .... if this happens to be the 20th time, what is the margin of error?  Or is it completely unknown?   19/20 is 95% so why not just build that other 5% of uncertainty into the +/- 3.

 

It all seems a little hodge-podge.

 

 

It helps to cover their asses when they get it wrong.

 

That's what I was going to say, it's sort of just like 60% of the time it works every time. Just a way to say usually it's within the 3 points but that one time you might get something totally screwy. 

 

 

I used to teach this stuff - switched to English and History.

 

Every confidence interval has it's own margin of error. + or - 3% just happens to be the one they use for a 95% confidence interval.  A 90% interval would have an even broader margin, whereas if you have a 99% confidence interval the margin of error is half of a percentage point.

 

https://www.google.ca/#q=90%25+confidence+interval

[The Unknown Poster]

Makes perfect sense.

[Mr Dee]

http://www.michaelgeist.ca/2015/10/canada-caves-on-copyright-in-tpp-commits-to-longer-term-urge-isps-to-block-content/

Canada Caves on Copyright in TPP: Commits to Longer Term, Urge ISPs to Block Content

October 9, 2015

While the Canadian government has focused on issues like dairy and the auto sector, it caved on key copyright issues in the agreement. As a result, works will be locked out of the public domain for decades at a cost to the public of hundreds of millions of dollars. Moreover, the government will “induce” Internet providers to engage in content blocking even where Canadian courts have not ruled on whether the content infringes copyright. As a result (and as expected – this was raised years ago), the government’s “made in Canada” approach to copyright – which it has frequently touted as representing a balanced approach – faces a U.S. demanded overhaul. In fact, even as other countries were able to negotiate phase-in periods on copyright changes, the Canadian negotiators simply caved.....

[Fatty Liver]

http://www.michaelgeist.ca/2015/10/canada-caves-on-copyright-in-tpp-commits-to-longer-term-urge-isps-to-block-content/

Canada Caves on Copyright in TPP: Commits to Longer Term, Urge ISPs to Block Content

October 9, 2015

While the Canadian government has focused on issues like dairy and the auto sector, it caved on key copyright issues in the agreement. As a result, works will be locked out of the public domain for decades at a cost to the public of hundreds of millions of dollars. Moreover, the government will “induce” Internet providers to engage in content blocking even where Canadian courts have not ruled on whether the content infringes copyright. As a result (and as expected – this was raised years ago), the government’s “made in Canada” approach to copyright – which it has frequently touted as representing a balanced approach – faces a U.S. demanded overhaul. In fact, even as other countries were able to negotiate phase-in periods on copyright changes, the Canadian negotiators simply caved.....

 

Copyright is a huge issue that should not be overlooked, the original laws did a good job of protecting the creator during his life-time and  balancing the public use and advancement of the creation.  These alterations are designed by  lawyers and accountants and are geared to locking in the earning potential of creative works for a much longer term.  Here is a good synopsis.

 

"The entire purpose of copyright law in the US was supposed to be about enabling greater dissemination of learning and knowledge, and that's by increasing the public domain. Yet, instead, because of regulatory capture, and the ability of gatekeepers to hijack the process, we've created a copyright law that does exactly the opposite. It restricts the dissemination of knowledge, decreases cultural sharing and availability, and generally harms creators and their ability to build on culturally relevant works.

What defenders of restrictive copyrights often fail to recognize is that the public domain is what made culture culture. Culture is a shared concept, in which lots of people are all experiencing the same or similar things -- and making it their own as a part of that. We used to share stories, retell jokes, build on and change the works of others, and it was that shared effort that built culture and helped it spread. But copyright law has changed all that. Rather than a true cultural phenomenon, where culture is built up by the public in terms of what they create, share and build upon, we now have a situation where the gatekeepers decide what culture is, push it on everyone via broadcast means, and then tell us not to do anything about it... unless we pay exorbitant sums. That's a perverse understanding of how culture happens, and one that does not benefit creators or the public (often one and the same), but is hugely beneficial for a few gatekeepers.

For a robust creative community and culture, it is important to bring back a healthy respect for the public domain."

[bb1]

http://www.michaelgeist.ca/2015/10/canada-caves-on-copyright-in-tpp-commits-to-longer-term-urge-isps-to-block-content/

Canada Caves on Copyright in TPP: Commits to Longer Term, Urge ISPs to Block Content

October 9, 2015

While the Canadian government has focused on issues like dairy and the auto sector, it caved on key copyright issues in the agreement. As a result, works will be locked out of the public domain for decades at a cost to the public of hundreds of millions of dollars. Moreover, the government will “induce” Internet providers to engage in content blocking even where Canadian courts have not ruled on whether the content infringes copyright. As a result (and as expected – this was raised years ago), the government’s “made in Canada” approach to copyright – which it has frequently touted as representing a balanced approach – faces a U.S. demanded overhaul. In fact, even as other countries were able to negotiate phase-in periods on copyright changes, the Canadian negotiators simply caved.....

Copyright is a huge issue that should not be overlooked, the original laws did a good job of protecting the creator during his life-time and balancing the public use and advancement of the creation. These alterations are designed by lawyers and accountants and are geared to locking in the earning potential of creative works for a much longer term. Here is a good synopsis.

"The entire purpose of copyright law in the US was supposed to be about enabling greater dissemination of learning and knowledge, and that's by increasing the public domain. Yet, instead, because of regulatory capture, and the ability of gatekeepers to hijack the process, we've created a copyright law that does exactly the opposite. It restricts the dissemination of knowledge, decreases cultural sharing and availability, and generally harms creators and their ability to build on culturally relevant works.

What defenders of restrictive copyrights often fail to recognize is that the public domain is what made culture culture. Culture is a shared concept, in which lots of people are all experiencing the same or similar things -- and making it their own as a part of that. We used to share stories, retell jokes, build on and change the works of others, and it was that shared effort that built culture and helped it spread. But copyright law has changed all that. Rather than a true cultural phenomenon, where culture is built up by the public in terms of what they create, share and build upon, we now have a situation where the gatekeepers decide what culture is, push it on everyone via broadcast means, and then tell us not to do anything about it... unless we pay exorbitant sums. That's a perverse understanding of how culture happens, and one that does not benefit creators or the public (often one and the same), but is hugely beneficial for a few gatekeepers.

For a robust creative community and culture, it is important to bring back a healthy respect for the public domain."

What a bunch of bs.Just Harper covering for the unamed corporations behind their long term money grab long after the artist has passed away.TPP wonder how much Harper is getting out of this down the road?How many board room seats does he get?The arrogance of Harper is palatable.Vote this guy in again and watch the gravy train back up and get loaded for him and his cronies.Brian Mulroney the second coming around the corner.Just watch.

[The Unknown Poster]

^^^^ lol

[Mr Dee]

No lol

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is one of the most renowned economists in the world. The Columbia University professor and former chief economist at the World Bank won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science in 2001 and has been one of the most vocal critics of globalization and global inequality.

......

Q: What, in your view, is wrong with a free-trade deal like the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

A: These are not free-trade agreements. The point is, free-trade is a euphemism. It’s a managed trade deal that all sides put in provisions to manage the trade in their favour.

The problem is … it’s not like the negotiations are happening between the Canadian people and the American people and the New Zealand people. It’s between the trade ministers. Historically, especially in the United States, it’s among the most influenced by special interests of the federal agencies.

That’s where these agreements are becoming particularly bad. It used to be that trade agreements were negotiated over tariffs … the consumers gained. The new agreements are about getting rid of regulations. We’re talking about regulation over the environment, safety, economy, health. The consumers, who are not at the table, get screwed.

And there's more....http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=11405825

[bb1]

^^^^ lol

Yep will see if your laughing if Harper gets another term at the trough he is gonna make Mulroney look like a saint.He already has the lying through his teeth down to an art form, the most ever spent on a election ever trying to bleed the other parties wow how blind are you? To bad you find the whittling away of our freedom by an egomaniac funny but hey I'm sure you have your reasons.

[bb1]

No lol

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is one of the most renowned economists in the world. The Columbia University professor and former chief economist at the World Bank won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science in 2001 and has been one of the most vocal critics of globalization and global inequality.

......

Q: What, in your view, is wrong with a free-trade deal like the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

A: These are not free-trade agreements. The point is, free-trade is a euphemism. It’s a managed trade deal that all sides put in provisions to manage the trade in their favour.

The problem is … it’s not like the negotiations are happening between the Canadian people and the American people and the New Zealand people. It’s between the trade ministers. Historically, especially in the United States, it’s among the most influenced by special interests of the federal agencies.

That’s where these agreements are becoming particularly bad. It used to be that trade agreements were negotiated over tariffs … the consumers gained. The new agreements are about getting rid of regulations. We’re talking about regulation over the environment, safety, economy, health. The consumers, who are not at the table, get screwed.

And there's more....http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=11405825

What's worse is the USA is taking 20 years to faze in certain parts of this TPP we are doing it in 5?Hmm mm wonder y?

[The Unknown Poster]

Funny how the anti trade people hve their experts and the pro trade have theirs. But you're right. And many others are wrong.

Don't get so worked up. Political ideology. Not personal. It doesn't change my life if Harper loses and Trudeau wins. But there sure are a lot of people that seem personally offended by the Prime Minister. And I find it very amusing

[kcin94]

 

^^^^ lol

Yep will see if your laughing if Harper gets another term at the trough he is gonna make Mulroney look like a saint.He already has the lying through his teeth down to an art form, the most ever spent on a election ever trying to bleed the other parties wow how blind are you? To bad you find the whittling away of our freedom by an egomaniac funny but hey I'm sure you have your reasons.

 

Stubbed my toe today. Stupid Harper

[Mark H.]

2.4 million people have voted at advance polls. People were saying lineups were as long as 30 minutes.

[Mr Dee]

2.4 million people have voted at advance polls. People were saying lineups were as long as 30 minutes.

That's encouraging. (The amount of the voters at the advanced polls).

[Mark H.]

Maybe there's hope for democracy yet - if only there were more swing ridings across the country

[kelownabomberfan]

Huge line-ups here too.  A lot of people heading away without voting.  Some of the NDP morons here are crying about voter suppression, but of course, it's just that Elections Canada doesn't usually get turn-outs like this for advance voting and so weren't ready.  The NDP are just making excuses for why they are tanking at the polls.  It's never their fault, it's always a conspiracy.

[The Unknown Poster]

Change is coming. Oh well

Get ready to hear how the liberals terrible policies are all Harper's fault. Lol

[Mr Dee]

Those long lines are nothing compared to the long lyings we've already been subjected to with the Conservatives...

[FrostyWinnipeg]

Huge line-ups here too.  A lot of people heading away without voting.  Some of the NDP morons here are crying about voter suppression, but of course, it's just that Elections Canada doesn't usually get turn-outs like this for advance voting and so weren't ready.  The NDP are just making excuses for why they are tanking at the polls.  It's never their fault, it's always a conspiracy.

 

Okay, I worked Advance this year. Friday busy but also first day so lots of mistakes were made by everyone. We're talking people who have not done this in 4 years and the training is sub-par.

 

Saturday-Sunday much better. Pretty empty after 4 each day. Monday, busier then Friday but with 4 days experience the wait was shorter.

 

Elections Canada did not dictate how many advance polling stations there are at each place, the gov't does. Or so I was told.

 

What can be done to shorten wait times? Eliminate the need for the poll clerk to write down the voters name, address and get their signature. Increase the # of poll stations. Increase the length of advanced voting days. Online voting.

 

This was the 4 and final day. Who walked away today? The person who did not show up the previous 3 days. The person who did not go to the Return Office to vote. The person who also could have voted by mail. Oh yeah, that person. The one who can still vote on Election day.

[Fatty Liver]

2.4 million people have voted at advance polls. People were saying lineups were as long as 30 minutes.

 

This turn out is good news for the Cons. if those advanced polls were located in retirement homes but basically bad news if they weren't.

[Fatty Liver]

 

Huge line-ups here too.  A lot of people heading away without voting.  Some of the NDP morons here are crying about voter suppression, but of course, it's just that Elections Canada doesn't usually get turn-outs like this for advance voting and so weren't ready.  The NDP are just making excuses for why they are tanking at the polls.  It's never their fault, it's always a conspiracy.

 

Okay, I worked Advance this year. Friday busy but also first day so lots of mistakes were made by everyone. We're talking people who have not done this in 4 years and the training is sub-par.

 

Saturday-Sunday much better. Pretty empty after 4 each day. Monday, busier then Friday but with 4 days experience the wait was shorter.

 

Elections Canada did not dictate how many advance polling stations there are at each place, the gov't does. Or so I was told.

 

What can be done to shorten wait times? Eliminate the need for the poll clerk to write down the voters name, address and get their signature. Increase the # of poll stations. Increase the length of advanced voting days. Online voting.

 

This was the 4 and final day. Who walked away today? The person who did not show up the previous 3 days. The person who did not go to the Return Office to vote. The person who also could have voted by mail. Oh yeah, that person. The one who can still vote on Election day.

 

 

Are you serious??? Sounds like a method they might have used in 1915 before they invented brains.  Sure hope this isn't part of the plan on election day because I'd bet bread a lot of Harper's hand picked poll clerks are on the bleak side of 80.

[Mark H.]

2.4 million people have voted at advance polls. People were saying lineups were as long as 30 minutes.

This turn out is good news for the Cons. if those advanced polls were located in retirement homes but basically bad news if they weren't.

They weren't. I'm in my late 30's - plenty of friends who are my age or younger voted yesterday