Week 9 - Cal.@ Ssk., Ott.@ Tor.

[Mr Dee]

CFL Trends and Highlights - Week 9

Defence Re-Emerges: Week 8 was a great week for the defence for most teams as net offence averaged only a combined 561 yards per game – the lowest average yards allowed per game in any week since 2002.

No Air Space: Calgary forced Ottawa into 11 straight 2-&-outs and 11 consecutive incomplete passes in their 48-3 win.

Negative Yards: In a stretch of 7 drives, Edmonton limited Montreal to -1 yard.

Limited Yards: Winnipeg held Toronto to just 72 yards of offence in the second half but lost on the strength of an Argo punt return TD.

Shut it Down: Hamilton started by forcing BC into 5 straight 2-&-outs and 36 net yards on BC’s first 7 possessions.

Long-range Field Goals: Last year, only three clubs made a 50+ yard field goal. In 2015, six teams have already at least one. From 50+ yards in 2015, CFL kickers are 11-of-14 (78.6%). What is odd is that from 40-49 yards they are only 32-of-46 (69.6%). In 2014, there were only 14 tries from 50+ yards made in 81 games and just 7 were made (50%).

Penalties Update to Week #8: With only 75 penalties, Week #8 averaged just 18.8 calls per game. That is the lowest of the 2015 season and lower than any total from the first 8 weeks of 2014. The cumulative penalty average year-to-date dropped for the 7th straight week to 25.06 per game.

Red Zone Defence vs Winning: The Top 4 Red Zone Defences in the CFL (Edmonton, Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa) have a combined TD% allowed rate of 46% and a W-L record of 19-9 .679. They have turned back more than half of the opposition chances inside the 20-yard line. The remaining clubs are at 60% only in Red Zone Defence with a 13-23 .361 W-L record.

Hamilton’s Fast Starts: Hamilton has started fast for the second consecutive week with 21-0 margins after the 1st Quarter. It was only the second time in 107 years of our history that any team had ever had consecutive leads of 21+ points after 15:00 of play. Only Winnipeg in August 1994 with 21-0 and then 25-0 leads in back-to-back weeks at the end of the 1st Quarter had ever achieved that feat.

QB Sacks / Drives with Sacks: Last week there were 34 sacks, the most in any week in 2015. Updating the number of drives where a club allowed a sack: now up to 154 possessions with at least one QS allowed and only 3 TDs made on them (1.9% TD rate). Sacks have doubled since the beginning of the season – Weeks #1-6: 4.1 per game; Weeks #7-8: 8.1, almost twice as many.

2-Point Converts: The convert choices made by teams has taken a very odd turn in the last 3 weeks with kicks dominating. Despite the 73% two-point success rate, in the last 12 games teams have elected to kick after 50 of the 54 touchdowns scored, or about 8% of the time going for two. That sounds a lot like the 6.4% election rate for two-point converts in 2014 (23 of 359).

Saskatchewan’s Injured List: Looking at their Week #7 roster provides some insight into Saskatchewan’s record. They had 15 players sit out the Aug 8/15 loss who have a combined 927 games (626 starts) of prior CFL experience. In those players, Saskatchewan was missing a total of 626 career starts – almost half as many as the 46-man roster that were active. A good comparison can be made to BC’s roster last week – just 7 players on the IL with a combined 55 career starts.

Third Down Gambles: Results in 3rd-and-1 situations this season have shown a marked change from the last few years with a much lower success rate. The trend shows a drop from 84% success rate in 2013 to just 63% in 2015.

Plenty of QBs: Last week, 15 different quarterbacks ran at least one possession week highlighting the need for depth at that position. With the debut start of Winnipeg’s Robert Marve, in 2015 there have been 14 different QBs start at least one game.

Comebacks – 8 from 10+ points: In 2015 there have already been 8 teams come back from deficits of 10 points or more. By team: Toronto 2, Calgary 2, BC 2, Ottawa 1 and Edmonton 1. Last year there were only 12 all season.

Saskatchewan Takeaways a record low: The Riders have just 2 takeaways this year (one interception and one on downs). The all-time CFL season-low is held by Edmonton in 2006 with 25. Saskatchewan will have to create 2.1 opponent turnovers per game the rest of the way just to reach that mark this year.

Montreal at BC Aug 20th

BC at home vs Montreal: The Lions have won 13 of the last 14 Montreal visits by a combined score of 491 to 253. In the last 4 Montreal visits BC’s average margin of victory has been by 33 points. (163-30). The Lions’ two best home records against any rivals come against the Alouettes at 26-8-1 in 35 games and Ottawa at 22-5-2.

Close Losses: The Alouettes have a current 3-game road losing streak, by margins of 2, 3 & 3 points. This is the first time in all of Montreal club history they have had three such narrow defeats in a row on the road. In all three defeats, Montreal outscored their opponent in the 4th Quarter, but fell just short.

Lulay Loves B.C. Place Stadium: In his career as the Lions’ starting QB, Travis Lulay has compiled a record of 23-7 in his 30 home starts. His first 9 starts were at Empire Field and BC went 4-5. At B.C. Place however, the Lions are 19-2 in his 21 starts including 2-1 this season after the 26-23 win over Edmonton last time out at home.

Plays from scrimmage gap: Last week, Montreal’s defence was on the field for 65 plays compared to their opponent at just 44 plays. Over the last two games, Montreal’s defence has racked up 133 plays to the opposition at just 97. The TOP gap over those two games was 33:57 to 26:03.

First drive TD specialists: The Lions have three opening game TD drives in 2015 and Montreal has two. Their combined total of 5 is one less than the entire rest of the CFL has generated.

Harris fumbles: The CFL’s leading rusher was the focus of Hamilton’s defence and they forced him into two fumbles. It was the third time in his CFL career that he has fumbled twice in the same game. Those turnovers turned out to be key as BC lost each game by at least 13 points: Aug 13/11 (17-30 to Wpg), Jul 30/13 (12-38 to Tor), and Aug 15/15 (22-52 to Ham). It is notable however that those were the first two fumbles BC has lost all season in 2015.

Rakeem Cato: Got off to fast start in his CFL career with wins in 2 of his first 3 starts and a passer rating of 105.9 in that 3-game stretch. Over the last 3 games, he is 0-3 with a passer rating of 80.5. he has thrown 4 interceptions in his last 3 games.

Booming Bede: The Montreal rookie punter is averaging 46.0 yards on 44 punts and 13 of those have gone for 50+ yards. Terry Baker holds the Als’ record for a single season average at 47.4 yards (1999). Kickoffs is where Bede has really excelled as he is averaging 73.0 yards which is on pace to break the CFL record. That is 67.9 yards per kickoff set by Jamie Boreham in 2010.

Making History: On September 12, 2014 against the Eskimos in Edmonton, Alouettes receiver S.J. Green became the seventh player in team history to reach the 5,000-receiving yards mark.

Moving Up: On August 1 against his former team, Nik Lewis caught three passes, allowing him to climb into ninth place all-time in the CFL for career receptions. His 11,482 receivng yards place him 11th all-time in CFL history only 143 yards shy of the tenth spot which belongs to Arland Bruce III.

[Mark F]

Winnipeg held Toronto to just 72 yards of offence in the second half

 

 

[Floyd]

Went with Harris in fantasy football... needs a bounceback

[Mark F]

I've seen cato throw the same pick 6 three times. 

 

maybe take that one out of the playbook. 

 

the bc guy was clearly looking for it

 

hello?

[Floyd]

The more I watch Cortez... the less I want him to replace MB

[Rod Black]

Suits analysis tonight is spot on. But his hair awful.

[Floyd]

'What you do in life echoes on eternity.' - Glen Suitor

[Rod Black]

So. We're in third.

[Mr. Perfect]

The more I watch Cortez... the less I want him to replace MB

I'm of the belief that coaches don't all of a sudden forget how to do their jobs. His resume speaks for itself as an OC - More often than not he puts together very solid offensive numbers. No one had a problem with him in Saskatchewan last year if I recall correctly until Durant got hurt, and the year before that he won a Grey Cup with the team. He obviously also had success elsewhere as an OC before that time as well.

 

The bigger issue in BC is Travis Lulay. He's always been a bit reckless with the football, and now whether it be because of his injury history, or teams just adjusting to his style of play, he's getting bit in the butt when he tries to make plays he shouldn't make. There's also not much you can do as a play caller when your run game falters as it did tonight for the Lions.

[Rod Black]

Als 251 yards rushing this game. Most by any team this year.

[Floyd]

 

The more I watch Cortez... the less I want him to replace MB

I'm of the belief that coaches don't all of a sudden forget how to do their jobs. His resume speaks for itself as an OC - More often than not he puts together very solid offensive numbers. No one had a problem with him in Saskatchewan last year if I recall correctly until Durant got hurt, and the year before that he won a Grey Cup with the team. He obviously also had success elsewhere as an OC before that time as well.

 

The bigger issue in BC is Travis Lulay. He's always been a bit reckless with the football, and now whether it be because of his injury history, or teams just adjusting to his style of play, he's getting bit in the butt when he tries to make plays he shouldn't make. There's also not much you can do as a play caller when your run game falters as it did tonight for the Lions.

 

 

He went really conservative tonight - Cortez has done this before too - too much max protect with Harris and Leonard blocking...  just feels like this style lets the opposition lets aggressive Ds keep sending everyone

 

His half-time adjustments were decent but Lulay was off, agreed.

[Mark F]

Cfl.ca re Edmonton v Hamilton

 

"The game, which head coach Chris Jones said will be a good measuring stick for his team, is Edmonton’s first of five straight against teams that currently all have 5-2 records – Hamilton, Toronto, Calgary back-to-back and Hamilton again."

[TBURGESS]

Good for Montreal last night. They haven't won in BC in forever. They ran the ball down BC's throat and BC had no answer. Not pretty, but effective. Wpg/Mtl/BC all tied at 3-5. Ham/Tor/Cgy/Edm all tied at 5-2,

[gbill2004]

So no there's 5 teams competing for 2 playoff spots:

Riders

BC

Bombers

Ottawa

Montreal

[LeBird]

So no there's 5 teams competing for 2 playoff spots:

Riders

BC

Bombers

Ottawa

Montreal

The way BC played last night it seems we only have to beat them once.  I don't think losing Eliminian would have have that much of a difference. Between the run defence and ST they actually looked a lot worse than us.

[bearpants]

So no there's 5 teams competing for 2 playoff spots:

Riders

BC

Bombers

Ottawa

Montreal

 

Thsi is essentially the same as saying there's 9 teams fighting for 6 playoff spots...

 

But I do like that we technically moved into a playoff spot without playing... with the addition of Simmons it's been a pretty successful bye week....

[Goalie]

Bombers Lions Als in my opinion

[gbill2004]

So no there's 5 teams competing for 2 playoff spots:

Riders

BC

Bombers

Ottawa

Montreal

Thsi is essentially the same as saying there's 9 teams fighting for 6 playoff spots...

Not really. Ticats, Argos, Stamps and Eskies are all a lock in my opinion.

[Mr Dee]

Week 9 Hamilton at Edmonton

 

Who ya got?  The Edmonton led Matt Nichols over the visiting Ti-Cats led by Zach Collaros.

Collaros over Nichols - In Hamilton’s first 4 games, he led them to just 6 TD drives in 48 possessions (12.5%). Over the last 3 games, that has been raised to 10 TD drives in 38 possessions for a 26.3% mark. His passer rating split - first 4 games: 94.1; last 3 games: 134.1.

 

Outstanding defences.  The Eskimos’ defence at home has been absolutely dominant and they have not allowed even one opponent TD drive in 49 possessions.

The Hamilton defence has really stepped up of late and over the last two games they have as many sacks as they made in the season’s first 5 games (11). Hamilton is now the only CFL club with 5 players with at least 3 sacks each.

 

The Ticats are riding a 4-game win streak but it's Edmontons home game. AND The Eskimos are now 4-0 in the four games that Bell has started at running back. He has averaged a league-high 84.5 rushing yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry - #2 among running backs.

In contrast in the last 3 games, Hamilton has averaged only 62 yards on the ground and as a % of total yards gained has been just 18%. They have passed for 841 yards over those 3 games (82% of the total).

 

Who do you pick now?  More?

 

Over the first 5 games Bailey was the target on just 3 pass attempts. In the last two games he has been thrown to 10 times with 5 catches for 86 yards. Cory Watson has been targeted just 3 times in the last 3 games. Game-by-game Edmonton has had a different leading receiver from the previous week all season long. Four different players have led the way with Kenny Stafford on top 3 times, Adarius Bowman twice plus Kendial Lawrence and Derel Walker once each. Derel Walker got his CFL career off to a great start with 10 catches for 125 yards. He was the #1 target for Edmonton QBs vs Montreal and was thrown to 13 times, as many as the next two receivers combined.

 

BUT - Hamilton’s defence has forced opponents into 90 times this season where they have been converting at just 35% for the year. Edmonton is #1 in that category with 107 opponent 2nd-and-7+ situations forced. Edmonton opponents convert at just 26% compared to 56% at 2nd-&-6 yards or less.

 

Over the last two years Edmonton has a margin of +91 in 4th Quarter scoring (212-121).

 

So who ya got now?

 

 

 

 

 

[Tracker]

My money`s on Hamilton. Austin will scowl the Ti-Cats to a win.

[gbill2004]

My money`s on Hamilton. Austin will scowl the Ti-Cats to a win.

I wonder if Austin and Collaros share a room on the road...

[Goalie]

Dude.. you got some odd fetish with other guys. From Stoudermire and his package to this now. Creepy really.

[gbill2004]

Dude.. you got some odd fetish with other guys. From Stoudermire and his package to this now. Creepy really.

Goes back to them giggling together on the sideline last week. The Stoudermire pic is still hilarious! Maybe try lightening up a little...frankly I find you a little creepy now.

[Mike]

 

Dude.. you got some odd fetish with other guys. From Stoudermire and his package to this now. Creepy really.

Goes back to them giggling together on the sideline last week. The Stoudermire pic is still hilarious! Maybe try lightening up a little...frankly I find you a little creepy now.

 

 

   

[kelownabomberfan]

Went with Harris in fantasy football... needs a bounceback

 

I took Pfeffer, only to see that he's now been cut.  Man the CFL is hard for poolies...