Stats, Storylines and Trends Heading Into Week 14

[TrueBlue]

Some interesting stats and info here:

 

52 PICK UP: ANALYTICS THAT STAND OUT AFTER 52 GAMES

 

• Teams that make a TD drive to open the game have gone on to win 10 out of 14 times (71%)

 

• INT return frequency 2015 vs 2014: In 2015, scoring is up 8% primarily due to a record pace for defensive TDs with 28 in 52 games. What’s more, last year 13% of all interceptions were returned for a score compared to 21 of the 113 interceptions thrown in 2015 (19% of them). That frequency is therefore up from one in every 7.6 to an amazing one in every 5.4 INTs

 

• Surviving an offensive penalty: the likelihood of scoring a touchdown drops from one in 6 (16%) to almost one in 10 (10.6%) following a penalty

 

• When taking a defensive penalty, the likelihood of an opponent scoring a TD rises from one in 10.5 (9.6%) to one in every 2.9 possessions. In 304 drives in 2015, defensive penalty-aided drives have gone on to score 106 times (34.8%)

 

• When teams give up a sack: There have been 255 drives this season when a team allowed at least one sack. Of those, that team has gone on to score a touchdown only 8 times. That is one in every 32 drives compared to one in 5.9 times without allowing a sack

 

• Teams that turn the ball over more have won only 9 times in the 52 games played thus far in 2015

 

• When a team turns the ball over, the opposition has followed that giveaway with a touchdown an incredible 30% of the time (73 immediate touchdowns after the 241 turnovers made to date). Of those, 28 have been defensive returns i.e. “pick sixes” and fumbles

 

• How do teams do in the first game after losing their #1 QB? This scenario has happened 5 times this year (Saskatchewan, Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg and most recently BC) and remarkably they have gone 3-2 in those ‘next’ games

 

• Red Zone Defence: the Top 4 clubs in denying opponents a TD inside the 20-yard line have a combined W-L record of 30-16, or .652. The Bottom 5 clubs in Red Zone defence are 22-36 and .379

 

• 2nd down conversions: the Top 4 clubs in denying opponents conversions on the 2nd down have a combined W-L record of 32-15 for a .652 winning percentage. The Bottom 5 clubs in 2nd down conversions allowed are just 20-37 and .351

 

• Teams that lead heading into the 4th quarter have won 36 of 49 times, or 73% (there have been three games tied)

 

• If a team builds a lead of 10+ points, they have gone on win 36 out of 46 times in 2015 – 78% of the time. That jumps to 88% if a team can pull ahead by two touchdowns or more (22 of 25). Ten teams have come back from 10 or more points down to win in 2015

 

• 17+ threshold for victory: teams that reach the 17-point mark have a record of 51-30 for a .630 winning percentage; teams that score 16 points or less are just 1-22 and have won just 4% of the time

 

• Do penalties influence the outcome? The average number of penalties by winning clubs in 2015 is 11.5. By losing clubs? 13.0

 

• Do home teams gain more yards? Not really! Home teams have averaged 333 yards per game, visitors 331 yards

 

• Where is the drop-off point in FG% success? In 2015, that point appears to be the 35-yard line. Inside the 35, CFL kickers are at 93% (124 of 133), while from 35 yards and out they have gone just 90 of 122 for a 74% mark

 

• How many punts go for 50+ yards? 28%. Of 706 punts so far in 2015, 196 have been for 50 or more yards

 

• Strategies on offence: of the total yards gained in 2014, 31% came via the run, averaging 216 yards per game. In 2015, that has dropped to just 186 yards per game and only 26% of the total. Passing now accounts for almost 3 out of every 4 yards from scrimmage

 

• % of passes thrown to the Top 10 receivers that are caught: 501 receptions made in 771 targets or 65% of the time

 

• Illegal contact rule change: with the tighter rules regarding contact on a receiver, the frequency of that penalty call has risen from 0.71 per game in 2014 (37 in 52 games) to 1.62 per game – more than double with 84 calls to date in 2015

 

• How many games go down to the final 3:00 before being decided? 29 of 52 have not been settled until the final 3:00

 

• To win the season interlocking series, the East needs to win just 3 of the remaining 11 inter-divisional games

 

HE WENT ALL THE WAY

 

• Lion Chris Rainey had two separate kick returns for a touchdown against Calgary last Friday night

• It was the first time since July 14, 2012 that anyone had returned two kicks of any kind for TDs in the same game (Chris Williams, Hamilton)

• It was only the second time in ten seasons that anyone had returned two kicks for TDs (Marcus Thigpen, Hamilton, was the only other on July 2, 2010)

• Rainey became only the fourth CFL player to return a kick off and a punt for TDs in the same game

• The other three are Earl Winfield (Hamilton), Derrick Crawford (Calgary), and Pee Wee Smith (Calgary)

• Rainey’s total of 333 return yards in that game is a new BC record but falls short of the CFL record of 428 yards set by Calgary’s Larry Taylor on July 7, 2012

• Rainey’s total is the fourth largest ever behind Taylor, Toronto’s Bashir Levingston (345) and Hamilton’s Thigpen (340)

 

NEXT PIVOT UP

 

• Injured Hamilton quarterback Zach Collaros exits the Tiger-Cat lineup leading the league in yards passing (3,376), TD passes (25), second down conversions (84), completions for 30 or more yards (21), touchdowns per possession (23.5 per cent) and points per possession (2.55)

 

• 7 of 9 clubs have lost their starter at some point this season

 

• Out of 104 quarterback starts this year, 48 (46%) have been made by a player other than the club’s number one quarterback

 

• A total of 19 different quarterbacks have started at least one game and that may grow to 21 when BC plays this week and Hamilton returns after their bye week

 

• Only Ottawa and Calgary, a combined 16-7, have not lost their starter for at least a game. Trevor Harris has also not missed a game for Toronto in Ricky Ray’s absence, despite not being their usual starter

 

• Since 2012, a club has had the same quarterback start all games in a season only six times (out of 34 team seasons in that period)

 

• Henry Burris, now age 40, has four of those seasons and has made 65 straight starts (Mike Reilly started throughout 2013 and Bo Levi Mitchell is on track to do the same in 2015)

 

• There doesn’t appear to be a clear trend when it comes to how this year’s injuries have occurred: for example, Durant wasn’t touched on his last play, Glenn was making a tackle after throwing an interception and Collaros was hurt while scrambling

 

TIE THIS ON

 

• If the East Division standings further tighten up in Collaros’ absence, the first tie-breaker (head to head records) becomes key

• Hamilton has the tie-breaker over Toronto, but has lost the season series to Montreal and has yet to play Ottawa

• Montreal holds the tie breaker over Hamilton but has lost the season series to Ottawa and has yet to play Toronto

• Ottawa holds the tie breaker over Montreal but trails Toronto (having lost their only meeting thus far) and has yet to play Hamilton

• Toronto has lost the season series to Hamilton but is 1-0 against Ottawa and has yet to play Montreal

• In the West, BC has clinched the season series with Saskatchewan; Calgary has clinched the season series with Winnipeg; Winnipeg has won the season series with Saskatchewan and the rest are still undecided

• If the playoffs started this week, Montreal would cross over to the West, eliminating BC and Winnipeg

• Looking ahead, Montreal has the easiest schedule remaining of those three, facing clubs with a cumulative win percentage of just .457

• Winnipeg has the toughest, playing only one game against a sub-.500 team and that is West Division rival BC

 

PENALTIES

 

• Week 13 had the second fewest penalties for any week this season

• We averaged 20.3 flags per game and only one game has had more than 20 flags

• The average for the season has dropped to 24.48, 12 per cent more than at this time last year, and 13 per cent more than the final average for 2014 (21.6 per game)

[johnzo]

Man, you gotta be impressed at Burris' enduring durability, especially this season when it seems like Zeus is hurling thunderbolts at quarterbacks.

[Doublezero]

Thanks for assembling some interesting numbers!

 

Wondered about this illegal contact rule change. Kind of makes you think they'll have to review and maybe toss it:

 

• Illegal contact rule change: with the tighter rules regarding contact on a receiver, the frequency of that penalty call has risen from 0.71 per game in 2014 (37 in 52 games) to 1.62 per game – more than double with 84 calls to date in 2015

 

Especially in light of this:

 

• When taking a defensive penalty, the likelihood of an opponent scoring a TD rises from one in 10.5 (9.6%) to one in every 2.9 possessions. In 304 drives in 2015, defensive penalty-aided drives have gone on to score 106 times (34.8%)

 

Or is that acceptable? This really changes the game IMHO where  officiating judgment calls can in effect decide the outcome.

[Rich]

Scoring was down last year which concerned the league.  The rule change was added to increase scoring.   So the rule change had the desired effect.

 

Question is has it increased it too much.  Or, the better question, is the overall product better and the games more entertaining?

[Taynted_Fayth]

Does safeway still do that kick for a mill contest? If so was it won thru rainey's game?

[gbill2004]

Does safeway still do that kick for a mill contest? If so was it won thru rainey's game?[/quo

[Goalie]

Has to be 2 kick returns. Not a punt and kick off