The Environment Thread

Wideleft · October 4, 2019

Somehow, some people can't be convinced that climate change isn't real because they won't believe it until their mother bursts into flame in the middle of a dried up Lake Winnipeg. The thing is, it's happening and the evidence is everywhere. Forget the 10 year warning, it's already happening. Just because you don't believe you have seen or felt it, doesn't mean others haven't.

Also, if you think you're out of ideas on what to ask for for Christmas - ask for a digital subsciption to the Washington Post - it is an amazing newspaper.

Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground

ON THE ZYRYANKA RIVER, Russia — Andrey Danilov eased his motorboat onto the gravel riverbank, where the bones of a woolly mammoth lay scattered on the beach. A putrid odor filled the air — the stench of ancient plants and animals decomposing after millennia entombed in a frozen purgatory.

“It smells like dead bodies,” Danilov said.

The skeletal remains were left behind by mammoth hunters hoping to strike it rich by pulling prehistoric ivory tusks from a vast underground layer of ice and frozen dirt called permafrost. It has been rapidly thawing as Siberia has warmed up faster than almost anywhere else on Earth. Scientists say the planet's warming must not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius — but Siberia's temperatures have already spiked far beyond that.

A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.

The permafrost that once sustained farming — and upon which villages and cities are built — is in the midst of a great thaw, blanketing the region with swamps, lakes and odd bubbles of earth that render the land virtually useless.

“The warming got in the way of our good life,” said Alexander Fedorov, deputy director of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute in the regional capital of Yakutsk. “With every year, things are getting worse and worse.”

For the 5.4 million people who live in Russia’s permafrost zone, the new climate has disrupted their homes and their livelihoods. Rivers are rising and running faster, and entire neighborhoods are falling into them. Arable land for farming has plummeted by more than half, to just 120,000 acres in 2017.

In Yakutia, an area one-third the size of the United States, cattle and reindeer herding have plunged 20 percent as the animals increasingly battle to survive the warming climate’s destruction of pastureland.

Siberians who grew up learning to read nature’s subtlest signals are being driven to migrate by a climate they no longer understand.

This migration from the countryside to cities and towns — also driven by factors such as low investment and spotty Internet — represents one of the most significant and little-noticed movements to date of climate refugees. The city of Yakutsk has seen its population surge 20 percent to more than 300,000 in the past decade.

And then there’s that rotting smell.

As the permafrost thaws, animals and plants frozen for thousands of years begin to decompose and send a steady flow of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere — accelerating climate change.

“The permafrost is thawing so fast,” said Anna Liljedahl, an associate professor at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. “We scientists can’t keep up anymore.”

Against this backdrop, a booming cottage industry in mammoth hunting has taken hold. The long-frozen mammoth tusks — combined with Chinese demand for ivory — have imbued teetering local economies with a strike-it-rich ethos. Some people bask in instant money. But others watch in dismay as Siberia’s way of life is washed away.

‘Nature is in control’

The first sign of change was the birds.

Over the past several decades, never-before-seen species started to show up in the Upper Kolyma District, an area on the Arctic Circle in northeastern Siberia 1,000 miles west of Nome, Alaska.

The new arrivals included the mallard duck and barn swallow, whose normal range was previously well to the south. A study published last year by Yakutsk scientist Roman Desyatkin said ornithologists in the region have identified 48 new bird species in the past half century, an increase of almost 20 percent in the known diversity of bird life.

Then the land started to change.

Winters, though still brutal, turned milder — and shorter. Fed by the more rapidly thawing permafrost, rivers started flooding more, leaving some communities inaccessible for months and washing others away, along with the ground beneath them.

The village of Nelemnoye was cut off for three months in late 2017 when the lakes and rivers didn’t fully freeze, stranding residents who use the frozen waters for transport. With the village in crisis, the government dispatched a helicopter to take residents grocery shopping.

(much much more if you can follow the link)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/

Edited October 4, 2019 by Wideleft

Fatty Liver · October 4, 2019

16 hours ago, kelownabomberfan said:

This is what happens when you want to sell apocalyptic fairy tales. You end up with crazy baby eaters coming to your press conferences. Never go for the crazy people vote. You end up in this kind of hellish nightmare.

I only wish Andy Kaufman was still alive, that bit would have been perfect for Latka to perform.

Wideleft · October 8, 2019

Coal and bitumen: Why the Norwegian pension fund is ditching the oilsands

KLP executive explains decision to sell $77M in shares of oilsands companies

"Norway's largest pension fund is no stranger to Alberta's oilsands, having invested in several different oil producers over the last decade including Canadian and Norwegian-based companies. Now, those investments toward ramping up production from the bitumen-rich areas of northern Alberta have come to an end.

KLP, which has assets of about $94 billion, has sold its stocks in oilsands companies.

In its evaluation of the oilsands, the pension fund came to the conclusion that the oil production in the Fort McMurray region was akin to the coal industry in its harmful impacts to the environment.

"Both are very high in emissions in producing the energy or fuel and we've decided to treat them similarly," said Jeanett Bergan, KLP's head of responsible investment during a phone interview with CBC News from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

"We are seeing a lot of signs in society that say 'This is not what the future will look like.'"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oilsands-norway-pension-fund-reduce-investments-alberta-1.5312066

Wanna-B-Fanboy · October 8, 2019

58 minutes ago, Wideleft said:

Coal and bitumen: Why the Norwegian pension fund is ditching the oilsands

KLP executive explains decision to sell $77M in shares of oilsands companies

"Norway's largest pension fund is no stranger to Alberta's oilsands, having invested in several different oil producers over the last decade including Canadian and Norwegian-based companies. Now, those investments toward ramping up production from the bitumen-rich areas of northern Alberta have come to an end.

KLP, which has assets of about $94 billion, has sold its stocks in oilsands companies.

In its evaluation of the oilsands, the pension fund came to the conclusion that the oil production in the Fort McMurray region was akin to the coal industry in its harmful impacts to the environment.

"Both are very high in emissions in producing the energy or fuel and we've decided to treat them similarly," said Jeanett Bergan, KLP's head of responsible investment during a phone interview with CBC News from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

"We are seeing a lot of signs in society that say 'This is not what the future will look like.'"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oilsands-norway-pension-fund-reduce-investments-alberta-1.5312066

Thanks for the article.

It would be interesting to see how many investors would come back when we transition to renewables.

pigseye · October 8, 2019

Flat-earthers, too funny

While many of the original approximations have since been improved, one—that the Earth’s surface and atmosphere are locally flat—remains in current models. Correcting from flat to spherical atmospheres leads to regionally differential solar heating at rates comparable to the climate forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols. In addition, spherical atmospheres change how we evaluate the aerosol direct radiative forcing.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19330.short?rss=1

Wideleft · October 8, 2019

1 hour ago, pigseye said:

Flat-earthers, too funny

While many of the original approximations have since been improved, one—that the Earth’s surface and atmosphere are locally flat—remains in current models. Correcting from flat to spherical atmospheres leads to regionally differential solar heating at rates comparable to the climate forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols. In addition, spherical atmospheres change how we evaluate the aerosol direct radiative forcing.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19330.short?rss=1

The move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition, convergence, and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure, and marked a shift from a form of Althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power.

Mark F · October 8, 2019

3 hours ago, Wideleft said:

The move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition, convergence, and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure, and marked a shift from a form of Althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power.

agreed . and don't forget:

V is to the squal to be in the resent acting one-half the particle is equare of the work done-half then stant acceleration a. We call on displacement acceleration, the acceleration of its speed a. Let us choose this way: The partic energy of then K = m V² - ½ m a x = 0 and at time this the constant force of the symbol K, the square v ) t. The t. Here of the represultant acting one is its speed the t!

and

Corrent models. Correct radiative since aerosols. Corrent models. In addition, spherential approximate forcing from flat to spheres leads to regions have forcing.

While regions correcting by greenhouse gases leads to regional sol direct rate forcing.

why skeptics can't understand this is beyond me.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Mark F

Mark H. · October 9, 2019

^^ deeply moving scientific data...

pigseye · October 9, 2019

I thought you were all experts on the subject, my mistake.

Edited October 9, 2019 by pigseye
r

Mark F · October 9, 2019

yes, you are mistaken.

none of us are, or claim to be, "experts", but the mainstream scientists who we follow, are. "experts"

if that's the word for Nobel prize winners.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Mark F

Mark F · October 9, 2019

Activating the floodway, In October, this is normal of course. Oh wait it's not!

Steinbach online:

Quote

The Red River is higher in Winnipeg right now than it has been during any fall since record keeping began in 1971.

A high water advisory remains in effect for the south and southeastern portion of the province, as well as all areas along the Whiteshell lakes.

The province says levels along the Red and Roseau Rivers are still forecast to remain within their banks at all locations.

In a news release, Manitoba Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre says heavy rains across the Red River Basin in September have resulted in river levels at record highs for this time of year. As river levels continue to increase, the province may operate the Red River Floodway under Rule 4 beginning Wednesday evening to lower levels within the city of Winnipeg in advance of this significant precipitation.

Quote

Heavy rains across the Red River Basin in September have resulted in river levels at record highs for this time of year. As river levels continue to increase, the province may operate the Red River Floodway under Rule 4 beginning Wednesday evening to lower levels within the city of Winnipeg in advance of this significant precipitation.

pigseye · October 9, 2019

14 minutes ago, Mark F said:

yes, you are mistaken.

none of us are, or claim to be, "experts", but the mainstream scientists who we follow, are. "experts"

if that's the word for Nobel prize winners.

Care to name a few so I can follow their work?

pigseye · October 9, 2019

Singapore has a message for Elon Musk: Taking mass transit is a better climate-change solution than tooling around in one of his Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-21/singapore-says-musk-s-vision-promotes-lifestyle-not-climate

No more subsidy's for Elon, too bad.

pigseye · October 9, 2019

1 minute ago, Mark F said:

Activating the floodway, In October, this is normal of course. Oh wait it's not!

Steinbach online:

Yet in June it was supposed to be the driest year ever, what happened?

Can't even predict the weather accurately a few months out but we are to trust their models over decades to come, you'd have to be pretty stunned to buy that.

Mark H. · October 9, 2019

2 hours ago, pigseye said:

Yet in June it was supposed to be the driest year ever, what happened?

Can't even predict the weather accurately a few months out but we are to trust their models over decades to come, you'd have to be pretty stunned to buy that.

Even with fairly heavy snowfall from winter, this was a dry year. We've had years with 800 mm of precipitation - this year is not even close. A wet September doesn't suddenly make it a wet year.

Mark F · October 9, 2019

1. weather and climate are completely different things.

That's very basic information.

2. The consensus mainstream prediction is, more extremes of wetness, and more extremes of drought.

which is what we are now experiencing.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Mark F

Wideleft · October 10, 2019

21 hours ago, pigseye said:

Care to name a few so I can follow their work?

Too many to mention, but here's a list of organizations. Follow away.

The following are scientific organizations that hold the position that Climate Change has been caused by human action:

pigseye · October 10, 2019

20 hours ago, Mark F said:

1. weather and climate are completely different things.

That's very basic information.

2. The consensus mainstream prediction is, more extremes of wetness, and more extremes of drought.

which is what we are now experiencing.

Mark, I'm going to make this as simple as I can. All those predictions for extremes are based on a doubling of CO2, and corresponding rise in temperature, which isn't predicted to occur until 2050. What part of this do you not understand?

pigseye · October 10, 2019

2 hours ago, Wideleft said:

Too many to mention, but here's a list of organizations. Follow away.

The following are scientific organizations that hold the position that Climate Change has been caused by human action:

Thanks, most of the studies that I have been posting are from scientists working at those organizations so by your own admission, they are legitimate.

Wanna-B-Fanboy · October 10, 2019

On 2019-10-09 at 2:00 PM, pigseye said:

Yet in June it was supposed to be the driest year ever, what happened?

WHo predicted that it will be the driest year ever? and where?

Links please.

Mark H. · October 10, 2019

THE DRY SUMMER...

It has been a drier than average year / growing season. We had good moisture in the fall of 2018, and a winter with heavy snowfall. Even with that, it was almost too dry to seed in the spring. Minimal but timely summer rains produced an average crop in most places, with some areas of the province (eg. Neepawa) experiencing a complete crop failure.

As for the current moisture: yes, it is wreaking havoc with the harvest and has cost several billion dollars in crop damage so far, with the damage to the soybean harvest still to be determined (eg. we still have 400 acres still out there, but soybeans are a tough crop).

However, without this fall moisture, we'd be hoping for plenty of 'wet snowfall' (some snow has low moisture content) in order to seed again this coming spring. To conclude, the fall moisture has been both a blessing and a curse - it will have a significant impact on the MB. economy.

Anyone who still thinks this wasn't a dry year...should talk to a farmer in the Neepawa area...they'll set you straight in a hurry.

FrostyWinnipeg · October 10, 2019

Summer was dry. Just have to look at the water bill for my flowers.

FWIW - Vancouver coldest day in 123 years today. Churchill was warmest spot in Manitoba 2 days ago I think.

pigseye · October 19, 2019

Does anyone know, or think they know, what the actual global temperature is today in degrees C?

Please provide a link if you can, thanks.

Asking for a friend.

Edited October 19, 2019 by pigseye
p

pigseye · October 21, 2019

Since 1981, carbon sinks have grown world wide by 12.4%. It appears that when they did their projections, nobody thought to include this possibility. But oh yeah, the science is settled just ask Greta.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12257-8.pdf

Edited October 21, 2019 by pigseye
p

Wideleft · October 21, 2019

1 hour ago, pigseye said:

Since 1981, carbon sinks have grown world wide by 12.4%. It appears that when they did their projections, nobody thought to include this possibility. But oh yeah, the science is settled just ask Greta.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12257-8.pdf

You either don't read the stuff you post, or you don't understand it. The 12.4% refers to the percentage of the carbon sink made up by LAI (leaf area index), not growth in the global carbon sink.

"Through process-based diagnostic ecosystem modeling, we find that the increase in LAI alone was responsible for 12.4% of the accumulated terrestrial

carbon sink"

The pertinent part of the article is:

"Globally, climate change weakened the land sink during the 1981 – 2016 period. When it’s effect on LAI, such as longer growing season, is excluded. Climate change induced an accumulated GPP reduction of 37.6 Pg C, whereas the accumu-lated decrease of ecosystem respiration was 10.5 Pg C during the 1981 – 2016 period. Consequently, the climate change caused a net reduction of 27.1 Pg C ( − 28.6%) in the accumulated sink enhancement since 1981. The decrease of the land sink due to climate change occurred almost in all regions."

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