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Posted (edited)

Somehow, some people can't be convinced that climate change isn't real because they won't believe it until their mother bursts into flame in the middle of a dried up Lake Winnipeg.  The thing is, it's happening and the evidence is everywhere.  Forget the 10 year warning, it's already happening.  Just because you don't believe you have seen or felt it, doesn't mean others haven't.

Also, if you think you're out of ideas on what to ask for for Christmas - ask for a digital subsciption to the Washington Post - it is an amazing newspaper. 

Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground

ON THE ZYRYANKA RIVER, Russia — Andrey Danilov eased his motorboat onto the gravel riverbank, where the bones of a woolly mammoth lay scattered on the beach. A putrid odor filled the air — the stench of ancient plants and animals decomposing after millennia entombed in a frozen purgatory.

“It smells like dead bodies,” Danilov said.

The skeletal remains were left behind by mammoth hunters hoping to strike it rich by pulling prehistoric ivory tusks from a vast underground layer of ice and frozen dirt called permafrost. It has been rapidly thawing as Siberia has warmed up faster than almost anywhere else on Earth. Scientists say the planet's warming must not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius — but Siberia's temperatures have already spiked far beyond that.

A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.

The permafrost that once sustained farming — and upon which villages and cities are built — is in the midst of a great thaw, blanketing the region with swamps, lakes and odd bubbles of earth that render the land virtually useless.

“The warming got in the way of our good life,” said Alexander Fedorov, deputy director of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute in the regional capital of Yakutsk. “With every year, things are getting worse and worse.”

For the 5.4 million people who live in Russia’s permafrost zone, the new climate has disrupted their homes and their livelihoods. Rivers are rising and running faster, and entire neighborhoods are falling into them. Arable land for farming has plummeted by more than half, to just 120,000 acres in 2017.

In Yakutia, an area one-third the size of the United States, cattle and reindeer herding have plunged 20 percent as the animals increasingly battle to survive the warming climate’s destruction of pastureland.

Siberians who grew up learning to read nature’s subtlest signals are being driven to migrate by a climate they no longer understand.

This migration from the countryside to cities and towns — also driven by factors such as low investment and spotty Internet — represents one of the most significant and little-noticed movements to date of climate refugees. The city of Yakutsk has seen its population surge 20 percent to more than 300,000 in the past decade.

And then there’s that rotting smell.

As the permafrost thaws, animals and plants frozen for thousands of years begin to decompose and send a steady flow of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere — accelerating climate change.

“The permafrost is thawing so fast,” said Anna Liljedahl, an associate professor at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. “We scientists can’t keep up anymore.”

Against this backdrop, a booming cottage industry in mammoth hunting has taken hold. The long-frozen mammoth tusks — combined with Chinese demand for ivory — have imbued teetering local economies with a strike-it-rich ethos. Some people bask in instant money. But others watch in dismay as Siberia’s way of life is washed away.

‘Nature is in control’

The first sign of change was the birds.

Over the past several decades, never-before-seen species started to show up in the Upper Kolyma District, an area on the Arctic Circle in northeastern Siberia 1,000 miles west of Nome, Alaska.

The new arrivals included the mallard duck and barn swallow, whose normal range was previously well to the south. A study published last year by Yakutsk scientist Roman Desyatkin said ornithologists in the region have identified 48 new bird species in the past half century, an increase of almost 20 percent in the known diversity of bird life.

Then the land started to change.

Winters, though still brutal, turned milder — and shorter. Fed by the more rapidly thawing permafrost, rivers started flooding more, leaving some communities inaccessible for months and washing others away, along with the ground beneath them.

The village of Nelemnoye was cut off for three months in late 2017 when the lakes and rivers didn’t fully freeze, stranding residents who use the frozen waters for transport. With the village in crisis, the government dispatched a helicopter to take residents grocery shopping.

(much much more if you can follow the link)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/

Edited by Wideleft
Posted
16 hours ago, kelownabomberfan said:

This is what happens when you want to sell apocalyptic fairy tales.  You end up with crazy baby eaters coming to your press conferences.  Never go for the crazy people vote.  You end up in this kind of hellish nightmare.

I only wish Andy Kaufman was still alive, that bit would have been perfect for Latka to perform. 

 

Posted

Coal and bitumen: Why the Norwegian pension fund is ditching the oilsands

KLP executive explains decision to sell $77M in shares of oilsands companies

"Norway's largest pension fund is no stranger to Alberta's oilsands, having invested in several different oil producers over the last decade including Canadian and Norwegian-based companies. Now, those investments toward ramping up production from the bitumen-rich areas of northern Alberta have come to an end.

KLP, which has assets of about $94 billion, has sold its stocks in oilsands companies.

In its evaluation of the oilsands, the pension fund came to the conclusion that the oil production in the Fort McMurray region was akin to the coal industry in its harmful impacts to the environment.

"Both are very high in emissions in producing the energy or fuel and we've decided to treat them similarly," said Jeanett Bergan, KLP's head of responsible investment during a phone interview with CBC News from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

"We are seeing a lot of signs in society that say 'This is not what the future will look like.'"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oilsands-norway-pension-fund-reduce-investments-alberta-1.5312066

Posted
58 minutes ago, Wideleft said:

Coal and bitumen: Why the Norwegian pension fund is ditching the oilsands

KLP executive explains decision to sell $77M in shares of oilsands companies

"Norway's largest pension fund is no stranger to Alberta's oilsands, having invested in several different oil producers over the last decade including Canadian and Norwegian-based companies. Now, those investments toward ramping up production from the bitumen-rich areas of northern Alberta have come to an end.

KLP, which has assets of about $94 billion, has sold its stocks in oilsands companies.

In its evaluation of the oilsands, the pension fund came to the conclusion that the oil production in the Fort McMurray region was akin to the coal industry in its harmful impacts to the environment.

"Both are very high in emissions in producing the energy or fuel and we've decided to treat them similarly," said Jeanett Bergan, KLP's head of responsible investment during a phone interview with CBC News from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

"We are seeing a lot of signs in society that say 'This is not what the future will look like.'"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oilsands-norway-pension-fund-reduce-investments-alberta-1.5312066

Thanks for the article.

It would be interesting to see how many investors would come back when we transition to renewables.

Posted

Flat-earthers, too funny

While many of the original approximations have since been improved, one—that the Earth’s surface and atmosphere are locally flat—remains in current models. Correcting from flat to spherical atmospheres leads to regionally differential solar heating at rates comparable to the climate forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols. In addition, spherical atmospheres change how we evaluate the aerosol direct radiative forcing.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19330.short?rss=1

 

Posted
1 hour ago, pigseye said:

Flat-earthers, too funny

While many of the original approximations have since been improved, one—that the Earth’s surface and atmosphere are locally flat—remains in current models. Correcting from flat to spherical atmospheres leads to regionally differential solar heating at rates comparable to the climate forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols. In addition, spherical atmospheres change how we evaluate the aerosol direct radiative forcing.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/39/19330.short?rss=1

 

The move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition, convergence, and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure, and marked a shift from a form of Althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Wideleft said:

The move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition, convergence, and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure, and marked a shift from a form of Althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power.

agreed . and don't forget:

V is to the squal to be in the resent acting one-half the particle is equare of the work done-half then stant acceleration a. We call on displacement acceleration, the acceleration of its speed a. Let us choose this way: The partic energy of then K = m V² - ½ m a x = 0 and at time this the constant force of the symbol K, the square v ) t. The t. Here of the represultant acting one is its speed the t!

 

and

Corrent models. Correct radiative since aerosols. Corrent models. In addition, spherential approximate forcing from flat to spheres leads to regions have forcing.

  While  regions correcting by greenhouse gases leads to regional sol direct rate forcing.

why skeptics can't understand this is beyond me.

 

Edited by Mark F
Posted

Activating the floodway, In October, this is normal of course. Oh wait it's not! 

Steinbach online:

Quote

 

The Red River is higher in Winnipeg right now than it has been during any fall since record keeping began in 1971.

A high water advisory remains in effect for the south and southeastern portion of the province, as well as all areas along the Whiteshell lakes.

The province says levels along the Red and Roseau Rivers are still forecast to remain within their banks at all locations.

In a news release, Manitoba Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre says heavy rains across the Red River Basin in September have resulted in river levels at record highs for this time of year.  As river levels continue to increase, the province may operate the Red River Floodway under Rule 4 beginning Wednesday evening to lower levels within the city of Winnipeg in advance of this significant precipitation.


 


 

Quote

 

Heavy rains across the Red River Basin in September have resulted in river levels at record highs for this time of year.  As river levels continue to increase, the province may operate the Red River Floodway under Rule 4 beginning Wednesday evening to lower levels within the city of Winnipeg in advance of this significant precipitation.


 

 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Mark F said:

yes, you are mistaken.

none of us are, or claim to be, "experts", but the mainstream scientists who we follow, are. "experts"

if that's the word for Nobel prize winners.

Care to name a few so I can follow their work?

 

Posted
1 minute ago, Mark F said:

Activating the floodway, In October, this is normal of course. Oh wait it's not! 

Steinbach online:


 

 

Yet in June it was supposed to be the driest year ever, what happened?

Can't even predict the weather accurately a few months out but we are to trust their models over decades to come, you'd have to be pretty stunned to buy that. 

Posted
2 hours ago, pigseye said:

Yet in June it was supposed to be the driest year ever, what happened?

Can't even predict the weather accurately a few months out but we are to trust their models over decades to come, you'd have to be pretty stunned to buy that. 

Even with fairly heavy snowfall from winter, this was a dry year.  We've had years with 800 mm of precipitation - this year is not even close. A wet September doesn't suddenly make it a wet year.

Posted
21 hours ago, pigseye said:

Care to name a few so I can follow their work?

Too many to mention, but here's a list of organizations.  Follow away.

The following are scientific organizations that hold the position that Climate Change has been caused by human action:

  1. Academia Chilena de Ciencias, Chile
  2. Academia das Ciencias de Lisboa, Portugal
  3. Academia de Ciencias de la República Dominicana
  4. Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de Venezuela
  5. Academia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de Guatemala
  6. Academia Mexicana de Ciencias,Mexico
  7. Academia Nacional de Ciencias de Bolivia
  8. Academia Nacional de Ciencias del Peru
  9. Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
  10. Académie des Sciences, France
  11. Academies of Arts, Humanities and Sciences of Canada
  12. Academy of Athens
  13. Academy of Science of Mozambique
  14. Academy of Science of South Africa
  15. Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS)
  16. Academy of Sciences Malaysia
  17. Academy of Sciences of Moldova
  18. Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
  19. Academy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran
  20. Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt
  21. Academy of the Royal Society of New Zealand
  22. Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy
  23. Africa Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science
  24. African Academy of Sciences
  25. Albanian Academy of Sciences
  26. Amazon Environmental Research Institute
  27. American Academy of Pediatrics
  28. American Anthropological Association
  29. American Association for the Advancement of Science
  30. American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)
  31. American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
  32. American Astronomical Society
  33. American Chemical Society
  34. American College of Preventive Medicine
  35. American Fisheries Society
  36. American Geophysical Union
  37. American Institute of Biological Sciences
  38. American Institute of Physics
  39. American Meteorological Society
  40. American Physical Society
  41. American Public Health Association
  42. American Quaternary Association
  43. American Society for Microbiology
  44. American Society of Agronomy
  45. American Society of Civil Engineers
  46. American Society of Plant Biologists
  47. American Statistical Association
  48. Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
  49. Australian Academy of Science
  50. Australian Bureau of Meteorology
  51. Australian Coral Reef Society
  52. Australian Institute of Marine Science
  53. Australian Institute of Physics
  54. Australian Marine Sciences Association
  55. Australian Medical Association
  56. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society  
  57. Bangladesh Academy of Sciences
  58. Botanical Society of America
  59. Brazilian Academy of Sciences
  60. British Antarctic Survey
  61. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
  62. California Academy of Sciences
  63. Cameroon Academy of Sciences
  64. Canadian Association of Physicists
  65. Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
  66. Canadian Geophysical Union
  67. Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  68. Canadian Society of Soil Science
  69. Canadian Society of Zoologists
  70. Caribbean Academy of Sciences views
  71. Center for International Forestry Research
  72. Chinese Academy of Sciences
  73. Colombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences
  74. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) (Australia)
  75. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
  76. Croatian Academy of Arts and Sciences
  77. Crop Science Society of America
  78. Cuban Academy of Sciences
  79. Delegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and Letters
  80. Ecological Society of America
  81. Ecological Society of Australia
  82. Environmental Protection Agency
  83. European Academy of Sciences and Arts
  84. European Federation of Geologists
  85. European Geosciences Union
  86. European Physical Society
  87. European Science Foundation
  88. Federation of American Scientists
  89. French Academy of Sciences
  90. Geological Society of America
  91. Geological Society of Australia
  92. Geological Society of London
  93. Georgian Academy of Sciences
  94. German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina  
  95. Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
  96. Indian National Science Academy
  97. Indonesian Academy of Sciences  
  98. Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management
  99. Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology
  100. Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand
  101. Institution of Mechanical Engineers, UK
  102. InterAcademy Council
  103. International Alliance of Research Universities
  104. International Arctic Science Committee
  105. International Association for Great Lakes Research
  106. International Council for Science
  107. International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences
  108. International Research Institute for Climate and Society
  109. International Union for Quaternary Research
  110. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
  111. International Union of Pure and Applied Physics
  112. Islamic World Academy of Sciences
  113. Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities
  114. Kenya National Academy of Sciences
  115. Korean Academy of Science and Technology
  116. Kosovo Academy of Sciences and Arts
  117. l'Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
  118. Latin American Academy of Sciences
  119. Latvian Academy of Sciences
  120. Lithuanian Academy of Sciences
  121. Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters, and Sciences
  122. Mauritius Academy of Science and Technology
  123. Montenegrin Academy of Sciences and Arts
  124. National Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences, Argentina
  125. National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
  126. National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
  127. National Academy of Sciences, Sri Lanka
  128. National Academy of Sciences, United States of America
  129. National Aeronautics and Space Administration  
  130. National Association of Geoscience Teachers
  131. National Association of State Foresters
  132. National Center for Atmospheric Research  
  133. National Council of Engineers Australia
  134. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
  135. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  136. National Research Council
  137. National Science Foundation
  138. Natural England
  139. Natural Environment Research Council, UK
  140. Natural Science Collections Alliance
  141. Network of African Science Academies
  142. New York Academy of Sciences
  143. Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences
  144. Nigerian Academy of Sciences
  145. Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters
  146. Oklahoma Climatological Survey
  147. Organization of Biological Field Stations
  148. Pakistan Academy of Sciences
  149. Palestine Academy for Science and Technology
  150. Pew Center on Global Climate Change
  151. Polish Academy of Sciences
  152. Romanian Academy
  153. Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium
  154. Royal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of Spain
  155. Royal Astronomical Society, UK
  156. Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters
  157. Royal Irish Academy
  158. Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
  159. Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
  160. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
  161. Royal Scientific Society of Jordan
  162. Royal Society of Canada
  163. Royal Society of Chemistry, UK
  164. Royal Society of the United Kingdom
  165. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
  166. Russian Academy of Sciences
  167. Science and Technology, Australia  
  168. Science Council of Japan
  169. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
  170. Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics
  171. Scripps Institution of Oceanography
  172. Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
  173. Slovak Academy of Sciences
  174. Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts
  175. Society for Ecological Restoration International
  176. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
  177. Society of American Foresters   
  178. Society of Biology (UK)   
  179. Society of Systematic Biologists
  180. Soil Science Society of America
  181. Sudan Academy of Sciences
  182. Sudanese National Academy of Science
  183. Tanzania Academy of Sciences
  184. The Wildlife Society (international)
  185. Turkish Academy of Sciences
  186. Uganda National Academy of Sciences
  187. Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities
  188. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  189. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
  190. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
  191. Woods Hole Research Center
  192. World Association of Zoos and Aquariums
  193. World Federation of Public Health Associations
  194. World Forestry Congress
  195. World Health Organization
  196. World Meteorological Organization
  197. Zambia Academy of Sciences
  198. Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
Posted
20 hours ago, Mark F said:

1. weather and climate are completely different things.

That's very basic information.

2. The consensus mainstream prediction is, more extremes of wetness, and more extremes of drought.

which is what we are now experiencing.

Mark, I'm going to make this as simple as I can. All those predictions for extremes are based on a doubling of CO2, and corresponding rise in temperature, which isn't predicted to occur until 2050. What part of this do you not understand? 

Posted
2 hours ago, Wideleft said:

Too many to mention, but here's a list of organizations.  Follow away.

The following are scientific organizations that hold the position that Climate Change has been caused by human action:

Thanks, most of the studies that I have been posting are from scientists working at those organizations so by your own admission, they are legitimate. 

Posted

THE DRY SUMMER...

It has been a drier than average year / growing season.  We had good moisture in the fall of 2018, and a winter with heavy snowfall.  Even with that, it was almost too dry to seed in the spring.  Minimal but timely summer rains produced an average crop in most places, with some areas of the province (eg. Neepawa) experiencing a complete crop failure.

As for the current moisture: yes, it is wreaking havoc with the harvest and has cost several billion dollars in crop damage so far, with the damage to the soybean harvest still to be determined (eg. we still have 400 acres still out there, but soybeans are a tough crop).

However, without this fall moisture, we'd be hoping for plenty of 'wet snowfall' (some snow has low moisture content) in order to seed again this coming spring.  To conclude, the fall moisture has been both a blessing and a curse - it will have a significant impact on the MB. economy.

Anyone who still thinks this wasn't a dry year...should talk to a farmer in the Neepawa area...they'll set you straight in a hurry.

 

 

 

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
1 hour ago, pigseye said:

Since 1981, carbon sinks have grown world wide by 12.4%. It appears that when they did their projections, nobody thought to include this possibility. But oh yeah, the science is settled just ask Greta. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12257-8.pdf

 

You either don't read the stuff you post, or you don't understand it.  The 12.4% refers to the percentage of the carbon sink made up by LAI (leaf area index), not growth in the global carbon sink.

"Through process-based diagnostic ecosystem modeling, we find that the increase in LAI alone was responsible for 12.4% of the accumulated terrestrial
carbon sink"

The pertinent part of the article is:

"Globally, climate change weakened the land sink during the 1981 – 2016 period. When it’s effect on LAI, such as longer growing season, is excluded. Climate change induced an accumulated GPP reduction of 37.6 Pg C, whereas the accumu-lated decrease of ecosystem respiration was 10.5 Pg C during the 1981 – 2016 period. Consequently, the climate change caused a net reduction of 27.1 Pg C ( − 28.6%) in the accumulated sink enhancement since 1981. The decrease of the land sink due to climate change occurred almost in all regions."

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