The Environment Thread

[GCn20]

18 hours ago, Wideleft said:

Your suggestion comes about 25 years too late.  32 years too late if you live in Norway.

Maybe so...but I think people are realistically overestimating the world's ability and want to get off of fossil fuels. The fact of the matter is that here in the West we can grouse about the need for change but realistically that change needs to happen in countries that don't really care to do so. Funny enough I have been grousing about this for around 25-30 years now.

Edited April 29, 2022 by GCn20

[Rich]

23 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

Maybe so...but I think people are realistically overestimating the world's ability and want to get off of fossil fuels. The fact of the matter is that here in the West we can grouse about the need for change but realistically that change needs to happen in countries that don't really care to do so. Funny enough I have been grousing about this for around 25-30 years now.

The countries that can need to pioneer and mature it.   The others will follow suit once that happens.  

[GCn20]

39 minutes ago, Rich said:

The countries that can need to pioneer and mature it.   The others will follow suit once that happens.  

Will they? I'm not so sure at least in the immediate future. When you have super powers like Russia whose economy is dependant on oil I am not so sure. When OPEC is backed into a corner and starts making deals around the globe for cheap oil and natural gas do you think that there will be no takers. I am not that naive. Big oil may be looking like the ugly sister at a Saskatchewan social but there is still more than enough drunks at the party willing to dance with her. Honestly anyone thinking that fossil fuels are going away in the next 30 years on a global scale is dreaming in technicolor. I am certainly not suggesting that gives us permission to pollute and not try to address it as best as we can, however, part of our strategy needs to be as a producer of clean oil to help reduce the impact from countries that will take much longer than us to end their dependancy.

Right now we are seeing oil taking it's lumps but anyone thinking the game is over is deluding themselves. As tech pushes demand down big oil will come back swinging to try and keep nations hooked on their product. RIght now demand is still high and big oil has only been minimally impacted, when demand reduces it will be interesting to see what their strategy for survival will be and who will be their dance partners. I think many hoping for a quick transition away from them are going to be very disappointed. Maybe I am just being overly pessimistic....hope that is the case but I know one thing, in most countries there are parties pushing hard for a quick exit from fossil fuels but in almost all these countries there are political parties who are willing to take a more long term phase out and keep the economy chugging along. Most of these countries will see those parties take power....no government lasts forever....and they will undo a lot of what the other government did and the cycle will repeat over and over and that inevitable will slow things down a great deal. We've seen this play out many times the world over in the past 20 years already. Next election there is a strong chance that we see Republicans in power in the US. Anyone thinking that the Libs will hold on forever here are dreaming as well. 

There is a breaking point as to how much people are willing to sacrifice for the greater good and when that pace overtakes their comfort level it will result in government change. Very few people are willing to suffer greatly economically for the greater good. Sorry to say but that's just reality, and reality is that in order to rapidly change that is what will need to happen. Quality of life is a very motivating factor in many voters decisions. If a government policy begins to adversely affect my quality of life I will vote against that policy, I am not alone in this, I think the reality is that the majority will as well. Governments around the world are very cognizant of this and that is why most climate change policy to date has been empty promises.

Edited April 29, 2022 by GCn20

[Rich]

14 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

Will they? I'm not so sure at least in the immediate future. When you have super powers like Russia whose economy is dependant on oil I am not so sure. When OPEC is backed into a corner and starts making deals around the globe for cheap oil and natural gas do you think that there will be no takers. I am not that naive. Big oil may be looking like the ugly sister at a Saskatchewan social but there is still more than enough drunks at the party willing to dance with her. Honestly anyone thinking that fossil fuels are going away in the next 30 years on a global scale is dreaming in technicolor. I am certainly not suggesting that gives us permission to pollute and not try to address it as best as we can, however, part of our strategy needs to be as a producer of clean oil to help reduce the impact from countries that will take much longer than us to end their dependancy.

Right now we are seeing oil taking it's lumps but anyone thinking the game is over is deluding themselves. As tech pushes demand down big oil will come back swinging to try and keep nations hooked on their product. RIght now demand is still high and big oil has only been minimally impacted, when demand reduces it will be interesting to see what their strategy for survival will be and who will be their dance partners. I think many hoping for a quick transition away from them are going to be very disappointed. Maybe I am just being overly pessimistic....hope that is the case but I know one thing, in most countries there are parties pushing hard for a quick exit from fossil fuels but in almost all these countries there are political parties who are willing to take a more long term phase out and keep the economy chugging along. Most of these countries will see those parties take power....no government lasts forever....and they will undo a lot of what the other government did and the cycle will repeat over and over and that inevitable will slow things down a great deal.

I agree that there is a long long road ahead before we are off fossil fuels.  Even look at EV's.   While cheaper to run, there is still so much electricity generated by fossil fuels.   So, no I don't think fossil fuels are going away in 30 years.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking to mix in an increase the use of renewables now.  I think though, in 30 years, reliance and usage of fossil fuels should be in the decline.  Admittedly though, I'm not sure that can happen without nuclear, and that is a whole different debate.  

Do you really think OPEC will start cutting prices?  I think that ship has sailed at this point.  If renewables continue to gain momentum and become cost effective, Western countries who have started making the switch won't go back.  OPEC will start cutting production to maintain pricing.  Also, OPEC is already investing in renewables.  What I'm not sure about is if that is purely for press and show or if they are hedging their bets to still be relevant when a switch is made.

[GCn20]

7 minutes ago, Rich said:

I agree that there is a long long road ahead before we are off fossil fuels.  Even look at EV's.   While cheaper to run, there is still so much electricity generated by fossil fuels.   So, no I don't think fossil fuels are going away in 30 years.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking to mix in an increase the use of renewables now.  I think though, in 30 years, reliance and usage of fossil fuels should be in the decline.  Admittedly though, I'm not sure that can happen without nuclear, and that is a whole different debate.  

Do you really think OPEC will start cutting prices?  I think that ship has sailed at this point.  If renewables continue to gain momentum and become cost effective, Western countries who have started making the switch won't go back.  OPEC will start cutting production to maintain pricing.  Also, OPEC is already investing in renewables.  What I'm not sure about is if that is purely for press and show or if they are hedging their bets to still be relevant when a switch is made.

I am not sure what OPEC will do to be honest, was just throwing it out there as one possibility. All I'm saying is that I would think OPEC is spending billions on carbon capture research, which may very well be the answer in the end, and will try infinitely hard to secure market for the fossil fuels they supply. Cutting production to get higher prices is not a great way to secure any business when you are in competition. A sound business model to keep demand high is essential. What that may look like I'm not sure but I can't imagine it won't involve some kind of incentive to their consumers. Developing nations may be who they target as most have energy needs and big oil would be a cheap short term solution for them. What most of us here in Canada fail to understand is that in many parts of the world there just isn't the hydro capability  or potential to replace fossil fuels.

Edited April 29, 2022 by GCn20

[FrostyWinnipeg]

Stop having kids! One of the best things you can do.

[Mark H.]

21 hours ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Stop having kids! One of the best things you can do.

That has impacts other than being a positive impact on climate change

It will lead to a higher percentage of the population being seniors, and most of the world is not preparing for that

Places like Japan are already faced with this issue

[Tracker]

1 hour ago, Mark H. said:

That has impacts other than being a positive impact on climate change

It will lead to a higher percentage of the population being seniors, and most of the world is not preparing for that

Places like Japan are already faced with this issue

It is near- critical for Japan. Japanese are not all that open to immigration and the pursuit of material gain has superseded the wish to have larger families. 

[Mark H.]

2 hours ago, Tracker said:

It is near- critical for Japan. Japanese are not all that open to immigration and the pursuit of material gain has superseded the wish to have larger families. 

It's a tragedy.  Not unlike much of what happened to MB seniors - during the pandemic. 

[blue_gold_84]

2 hours ago, Tracker said:

It is near- critical for Japan. Japanese are not all that open to immigration and the pursuit of material gain has superseded the wish to have larger families. 

It's a far more complicated situation than just immigration and material gain. It's a similar trend in many parts of the developed world (housing, cost of living, stagnating wages, job stability, work-life balance) but with its own set of unique circumstances (traditional attitudes, societal roles), and those have been exacerbated by the pandemic.

https://onlychildworld.com/understanding-the-birth-rate-in-japan/

[Mark H.]

A low birth rate should not be a problem in and of itself - it just requires society and government to have a different outlook and plan accordingly

But not unlike the climate change issue - the attitude seems to be to mostly do more of the same

[Mark F]

QuantumScape has announced impressive performance figures for what may be the first commercially viable lithium metal solid state battery. They claim that they can increase the autonomy of an electric car by up to 80%, and it that it can charge from 0 to 80% in just 15 minutes.

Dr. Stanley Whittingham, co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery and winner of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, stated in that regard that "… the hardest part of making a working solid state battery is the need to simultaneously meet the requirements of high energy density, fast charging, long life cycle, and wide operating temperature range. These data show that QuantumScape cells meet all of these requirements, something that has never been achieved before. If QuantumScape can bring this technology to large-scale production, it has the potential to transform the industry."

 

https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/first-commercially-viable-lithium-metal-solid-state-battery-charges-to-80-in-just-15-minute

Edited May 4, 2022 by Mark F

[Mark F]

Installed in Norway....

 

 

[Mark F]

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/05/the-worlds-biggest-hydrogen-fuel-cell-ev-started-work-in-south-africa/

 

South Africa, mining company Anglo American wants to set an example at its platinum mine in Mogalakwena, which has become home to one of the world's largest electric vehicles—a 210-metric-ton (463,000-lb) truck powered by hydrogen fuel cells.

The nuGen haul truck started life as a Komatsu 930E with a diesel-electric powertrain, in which a 16-cylinder engine acted as a generator to power the truck's electric traction motors. Now, that diesel engine is gone, and the haul truck's traction motors are powered by eight 100 kW hydrogen fuel cell modules from Ballard and a lithium-ion battery pack from Williams Advanced Engineering capable of outputting 1.1 MW, integrated by First Mode in Seattle.

👀Peak power for the fuel cell powertrain is 2 MW (2,682 hp), which is sufficient for the haul truck to retain its 300-metric-ton (661,000-lb) payload rating. When fully laden, the massive truck and its payload will tip the scales at 510 metric tons (1.1 million lbs).

second article 

"SEATTLE, April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Mode, a design, engineering, and complex-system development firm, today announced it has exited stealth mode to bring the tools and technologies of deep space exploration to challenging industrial problems around the globe. The company, formerly known as Synchronous, was founded in early 2018 by engineers, scientists, and strategists from companies including NASA, JPL, Spaceflight Industries, Boeing, Intel, and Planetary Resources. With extensive experience designing and operating robotic systems on the surface of Mars, the company has been testing their unique approach on projects and industries ahead of making the company’s services publicly available."

..... first mode made the engine.  Ballard is Canadian company.

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Mark F

[FrostyWinnipeg]

A 'time bomb' in the Red Sea could cause a catastrophic oil spill without global help: UN

[Mark F]

SAN FRANCISCO, May 25, 2022—The Goldman Environmental Foundation today announced seven recipients of the 2022 Goldman Environmental Prize, the world’s foremost award for grassroots environmental activists.

Awarded annually to environmental heroes from each of the world’s six inhabited continental regions, the Goldman Environmental Prize honors the achievements and leadership of grassroots environmental activists from around the world, inspiring all of us to take action to protect our planet.

 

https://www.goldmanprize.org/press_releases/2022-press-release/

 

Also

"Britain announced a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers’ profits on Thursday, alongside a 15 billion pound ($18.9 billion) package of support for households struggling to meet soaring energy bills."

 

globe and mail

Edited May 26, 2022 by Mark F

[WildPath]

1 hour ago, Mark F said:

Britain announced a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers’ profits on Thursday, alongside a 15 billion pound ($18.9 billion) package of support for households struggling to meet soaring energy bills."

This is what needs to be done rather than cutting taxes on gas (Alberta). Use the funds that the ultra-rich are benefitting from to support increased prices rather than taking it out of public coffers and encouraging more use of a limited resource.

Do not understand how people anyone outside the upper class celebrate less money going into public funds like education property tax rebate (Manitoba) and gas tax cut (Alberta) when there is no plan to replace the funds.

[Mark F]

27 minutes ago, WildPath said:

This is what needs to be done rather than cutting taxes on gas (Alberta).

Yet another government subsidy to the already massively subsidized oil industry, when that is the absolute  last thing needed.

oil and gas has a death grip on the planet.

Where I am, there is usually a long night of  private fireworks on the longweekend.... this last weekend.... nothing. My theory... people have no money left after filling the car to get to work.

so, not just a subsidy to oil and gas, but a hit on other business, some local.

also... somebody with the smarts needs to start a facebook carpool group. Local, provincial.

it would help.

Edited May 26, 2022 by Mark F

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.space.com/humanity-turns-earth-chaotic-climate-system

Quote

Humans aren't just making Earth warmer, they are making the climate chaotic, a stark new study suggests.

The new research, which was posted April 21 to the preprint database arXiv, draws a broad and general picture of the full potential impact of human activity on the climate. And the picture isn't pretty. 

While the study doesn't present a complete simulation of a climate model, it does paint a broad sketch of where we're heading if we don't curtail climate change and our unchecked use of fossil fuels...

"The implications of climate change are well known (droughts, heat waves, extreme phenomena, etc.)," study researcher Orfeu Bertolami told Live Science in an email. "If the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behavior, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem."

 

[Mark F]

@blue_gold_84

 

Latest UN report.

 

 

"That paper, ‘Pandemics, Climate Extremes, Tipping Points and the Global Catastrophic Risk – How these Impact Global Targets’, offers an in-depth scenario analysis of global collapse risks based on how human activities are transgressing planetary boundaries.

The paper is authored by Thomas Cernev, a researcher at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. It finds that the continuation of ‘business as usual’ and a failure to invoke drastic policy changes means that human civilisation is moving inexorably toward collapse.

“From the scenario analysis… it is evident that in the absence of ambitious policy and near global adoption and successful implementation, the world continually tends towards the global collapse scenario,” it says."

The consequences of what we are doing, and failing to do, is going to dwarf every prior series of human actions combined.

Edited May 30, 2022 by Mark F

[Mark F]

@blue_gold_84
 

what is going on is truly staggering.

my 30 year old nephew And his wife just flew from regina to vancouver, simply to go to a concert.

B.C. Government is promoting fracked gas, and lng.

While......

B.C. In less than one year,

1.  set a high temperature record, in litton, which broke the previous high, by a greater percent than any record in world history

2. had the flood that closed the transcansda, caused billions in damage, and I wonder if it it might be the most expensive event in our history.

NDP  - Green coalition.

so, no sanity from any side.

And most people havent got a clue about whats in store. 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Mark F

[Mark F]

"The price of recovering what was lost is nearing $9-billion, according to an analysis by The Globe and Mail, and potentially could be much higher. The outlays will challenge the existing cost-sharing arrangements between different levels of government for disasters of this magnitude. They also underscore how Canada’s mechanisms for financing disaster relief reward inertia.

Extreme weather battered B.C. in 2021. A deadly heat wave arrived in June, followed by one of the province’s worst wildfire seasons on record. When record-breaking rains arrived in November, the fire-scarred landscape couldn’t absorb the moisture. The result was significant flooding and landslides from Vancouver Island to the Alberta border.

Railways, hydro lines, pipelines, dikes, bridges and key highways were damaged, resulting in billions of dollars in economic losses. There was a point in mid-November when not a single rail or road route was open between Vancouver and the B.C. Interior – isolating Canada’s biggest port for more than a week, and interrupting national supply chains.

Globe and mail

Edited May 30, 2022 by Mark F

[Mark F]

Callous, but honest.

 

"Earlier this month, Stuart Kirk, the head of responsible investment at the global bank HSBC, made headlines by suggesting that financial institutions should discount the risks of the climate crisis as the world could adapt to its impacts. He noted that Amsterdam was built on land below sea level, and suggested that areas climate scientists have predicted would be vulnerable to inundation, such as Miami, could be similarly adapted to cope with the risk.

“Who cares if Miami is six metres under water in 100 years?” he asked an investor conference. HSBC moved quickly to disown Kirk’s comments and suspend him. "

"suspended" ... with full pay no doubt. Lol.

hsbc lol

HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, paid a $1.9 billion fine in 2012 to avoid prosecution for allowing at least $881 million in proceeds from the sale of illegal drugs. In addition to facilitating money laundering by drug cartels, evidence was found of HSBC moving money for Saudi banks tied to terrorist groups. Even though federal investigators found evidence “that senior bank officials were complicit in the illegal activity,” no HSBC executives faced charges for their actions. The Wall Street Journal revealed in 2016 that U.S. Justice Department officials, led by President Obama’s former Attorney General Eric Holder, overruled their prosecutors’ recommendation to pursue criminal charges against HSBC in 2012."

 

"doing some terrorist stuff? Let us take the annoying red tape out for you! No questions asked!l"

 

great corporate citizen. and Obama. 😂
 

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Mark F

[Mark H.]

On 2022-05-30 at 2:33 PM, Mark F said:

what is going on is truly staggering.

my 30 year old nephew And his wife just flew from regina to vancouver, simply to go to a concert.

 

They like music.

Some people fly to attend sporting events, some for music, some to visit family or to spend time outdoors

I guess I just classify all recreational travel the same - it has become part of the fabric of western society 

Those that can afford it are not going to let it go easily

Everyone is counting on some pie in the sky government policy to combat climate change - but we're for the most part not even making minor changes as individuals

 

[blue_gold_84]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/emissions-trading-scheme/news/eu-overshoots-2020-climate-target-records-34-drop-in-emissions/

Quote

The European Environment Agency (EEA) on Tuesday submitted official EU data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The 961-page inventory report confirmed preliminary data suggesting the European Union was on track to smash its 2020 climate goal.

The EU had already reduced its emissions by 26% in 2019 and had achieved its 20% target before the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns started to impact emission levels, the EEA said.

Emissions dropped by 11% in 2020 alone as EU countries shut down their economies to contain the coronavirus outbreak, the EEA indicated, admitting that the COVID-19 lockdowns “had a substantial impact on reducing emissions in 2020.”

Still, “the data confirms a 30-year downward trend which led to the EU achieving its 2020 target to reduce emissions by 20% compared to 1990 levels,” it said in a statement.

Over the past thirty years, EU emission cuts were driven mainly by the growing use of renewables and replacing coal with gas in electricity generation.

The report showed that coal use saw an unprecedented decline and was three times lower in 2020 than in 1990.

The EEA said that lower demand for heating due to warmer winters in Europe also played a part.

But although manufacturing industries recorded an overall drop in emissions, there were notable exceptions with transport, refrigeration and air conditioning, whose emissions rose by 53 and 80 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent respectively, the report showed.

While almost all EU countries managed to reduce their emissions, the drop was mainly due to the UK and Germany, which accounted for 47% of the total net reductions over the past 30 years, the EEA remarked.