Statistics are for losers

[IC Khari]

A quick check of the week two CFL stats reveals that Willy is second in passing yardage (behind Harris slightly), has one of the best completion %, is fourth in TD passes. Darvin Adams is 4th in receiving yards, 3rd in TD catches, while Andrew Harris is top five in rushing and has the most passes caught in the league at 15. Defensively, Macho Harris leads the league with a whopping 45 tackles (although I'm not sure that is a good reflection on the defense). Johnson is tied for the league lead in forced fumbles with 2 and Randle is in a large league wide tie in interceptions with 1 and tied for second in fumble recoveries. Yet we're still 0 - 2

Edited July 3, 2016 by IC Khari

[TBURGESS]

3 minutes ago, IC Khari said:

A quick check of the week two CFL stats reveals that Willy is second in passing yardage (behind Harris slightly), has one of the best completion %, is fourth in TD passes. Darvin Adams is 4th in receiving yards, 3rd in TD catches, while Andrew Harris is top five in rushing and has the most passes caught in the league at 15. Defensively, Macho Harris leads the league with a whopping 45 tackles (although I'm not sure that is a good reflection on the defense). Johnson is tied for the league lead in forced fumbles with 2 and Randle is in a large league wide tie in interceptions with 1 and tied for second in fumble recoveries. Yet we're still 0 - 2

All that's because garbage time comes early in Bomberland and we end up playing against pillow soft prevent defenses for a quarter or more each game.

[IC Khari]

Understand that. I heard MOS mentioning the possibility of using a version of the 2 minute offence (like Ottawa used last year) that doesn't allow the defences as much time to adjust. Wondering if this might cure somewhat what is ailing Willy during the first part of the games. That and hopefully the return of Dressler. Or am I just wishfully thinking

[Fred C Dobbs]

54 minutes ago, IC Khari said:

Defensively, Macho Harris leads the league with a whopping 45 tackles (although I'm not sure that is a good reflection on the defense).

That's just not possible. Harris had 5 tackles against MTL and I think I would have noticed if he had 40 tackles against CAL.

[White Out]

We should extend Drew Willy to another 3 years at 450k. Got to lock up that talent.

[IC Khari]

23 minutes ago, Fred C Dobbs said:

That's just not possible. Harris had 5 tackles against MTL and I think I would have noticed if he had 40 tackles against CAL.

I wondered if it was a CFL typo as well, not like they aren't always totally accurate

[LeBird]

B ox scores: 4 + 5 

[Eternal optimist]

As someone possessing a degree in statistics, I must respectfully disagree with the title of this thread. That said, most statistics (especially sport statistics) can be easily manipulated to suit one's needs... such as making the Bombers woeful offense look a lot better in the numbers categories than it has been through two games.

[wbbfan]

2 hours ago, IC Khari said:

A quick check of the week two CFL stats reveals that Willy is second in passing yardage (behind Harris slightly), has one of the best completion %, is fourth in TD passes. Darvin Adams is 4th in receiving yards, 3rd in TD catches, while Andrew Harris is top five in rushing and has the most passes caught in the league at 15. Defensively, Macho Harris leads the league with a whopping 45 tackles (although I'm not sure that is a good reflection on the defense). Johnson is tied for the league lead in forced fumbles with 2 and Randle is in a large league wide tie in interceptions with 1 and tied for second in fumble recoveries. Yet we're still 0 - 2

A db leading in tackles is usually a sign of a bad D actually. ala wes lysack. When that person is also the worst tackler your in real trouble.

If we played the 2/3 qt like we do the 4th we'd be going 18-0. Some adjustments to the line, time to gel, a lil fire from mos, and the hurry up could turn things around here real quick. Not playing 10 yards off in coverage would help too.

[wbbfan]

11 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

As someone possessing a degree in statistics, I must respectfully disagree with the title of this thread. That said, most statistics (especially sport statistics) can be easily manipulated to suit one's needs... such as making the Bombers woeful offense look a lot better in the numbers categories than it has been through two games.

as baseball and analytics their have shown raw numbers ba/hr/rbi. arent that valuable. How you get there obp/ops/babip is more effective. 

[gcdrought]

As we all know the stats in the 4th quarter of blowouts are as phony as they come.  The defence only rushes 3 guys and equally important the secondary is in a total prevent defence.  They couldn't care less if they give up a slew of 10 yard passes.  Willy has generated about 100 yards passing through 3 quarters of both games and that's brutal.  I don't think I've ever seen a QB who has lost far more games than he's won and who has not even won a single playoff game being paid $450,000.  It's stunning how overpaid this guy is.  He can complete all sorts of passes once he has no pressure and the defence drops well back.  But any QB can do that.

 

Edited July 3, 2016 by gcdrought

[Eternal optimist]

It'd be interesting if someone could define the "cut-off" when the other team's defenses really start to let up - then you could just back out any subsequent offensive production after that and see the Bombers offensive numbers for what they really are. Even if you took the 4th quarter production out of both of those games it'd be a better indicator of how the offense is doing when you only include #'s from when the opponent's defensive unit was still competing at its highest level.

[JuranBoldenRules]

6 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

It'd be interesting if someone could define the "cut-off" when the other team's defenses really start to let up - then you could just back out any subsequent offensive production after that and see the Bombers offensive numbers for what they really are. Even if you took the 4th quarter production out of both of those games it'd be a better indicator of how the offense is doing when you only include #'s from when the opponent's defensive unit was still competing at its highest level.

 

It's not that hard to spot if you're watching the game and understand coverages.  Montreal slipped into prevent (basically giving away first downs, hoping to prevent big plays, quick scores, dropping 4 guys into deep quarters zone defense) when they got up 3 scores on the Bombers in the 3rd quarter in week 1.  That would be typical of most teams.

[gcdrought]

8 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

It'd be interesting if someone could define the "cut-off" when the other team's defenses really start to let up - then you could just back out any subsequent offensive production after that and see the Bombers offensive numbers for what they really are. Even if you took the 4th quarter production out of both of those games it'd be a better indicator of how the offense is doing when you only include #'s from when the opponent's defensive unit was still competing at its highest level.

You really only have to look at the pass rush.  As in the Calgary game, the second they got up 36-8 they started rushing 3 guys every down and their secondary played deeper.  You had 5 Blue Bomber offensive linemen blocking against 3 rushers so Willy had all sorts of time and someone will almost always come open when a QB has 6 to 7 seconds to throw.  A team has gone into a prevent defense (willing to give up yardage to bleed the clock) the moment they stop blitzing.

[BomberDynasty]

7 minutes ago, JuranBoldenRules said:

 

It's not that hard to spot if you're watching the game and understand coverages.  Montreal slipped into prevent (basically giving away first downs, hoping to prevent big plays, quick scores, dropping 4 guys into deep quarters zone defense) when they got up 3 scores on the Bombers in the 3rd quarter in week 1.  That would be typical of most teams.

 

And by that definition Bomber offensive output would have been about 100 yards total in the Montreal game with maybe 1 first down, and about 130 yards total in the Calgary game with about 3 first downs.

It's comical and also sadly pathetic the way the team and some fans use the Garbage Time stats as some kind of silver lining or opiate to appease the masses.

[Mark F]

3 hours ago, Fred C Dobbs said:

That's just not possible. Harris had 5 tackles against MTL and I think I would have noticed if he had 40 tackles against CAL.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2016 by Mark F

[Eternal optimist]

Unfortunately this season is already starting to look like the 2013 season in terms of how we're just getting blown out like this. We might be able to steal a couple of wins here and there when teams underestimate us, but from what we've seen so far this team has a long way to go before being legitimately competitive. The bigger problem this year though is if things continue on the current trend, the Bombers don't have a shiny new stadium to artificially inflate our home attendance numbers.

[iso_55]

4 hours ago, White Out said:

We should extend Drew Willy to another 3 years at 450k. Got to lock up that talent.

Drew Garbage Time Willy.

[Tracker]

"There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics"- Samuel Langhorn Clemens

[gcdrought]

7 hours ago, BomberDynasty said:

 

And by that definition Bomber offensive output would have been about 100 yards total in the Montreal game with maybe 1 first down, and about 130 yards total in the Calgary game with about 3 first downs.

It's comical and also sadly pathetic the way the team and some fans use the Garbage Time stats as some kind of silver lining or opiate to appease the masses.

So true.  I said to myself when it was 36-8, O.K. here come all the phony passing stats where the other team just lays back.  Forget the garbage time stats, the offense has been terrible.   As you say, there is no silver lining

[wbbfan]

On 7/3/2016 at 2:55 PM, BomberDynasty said:

 

And by that definition Bomber offensive output would have been about 100 yards total in the Montreal game with maybe 1 first down, and about 130 yards total in the Calgary game with about 3 first downs.

It's comical and also sadly pathetic the way the team and some fans use the Garbage Time stats as some kind of silver lining or opiate to appease the masses.

do you remember the pre willy era qbs post glenn? Most of those guys couldnt beat prevent Ds. Not to mention the qbr dyar and dvoa in the first 3qts isnt out of line with what you see in the 4th. If we get the offense working as the sum of its pieces and and deal with communication issues picking up the blitz the O will be ok. The lack of pass rush and soft coverage will be another matter though.